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DP Blogs

This is a place to post reflections, share opinions, ideas, interests and personal political philosophies.
I want to thank my neighbor's tom the north for plastic trash bags In the 1950s, Winnipeg’s Harry Wasylyk used the flexible plastic polyethylene to create the first garbage bag,
I have returned after a hiatus then went on far too long: Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/V4Y3 Notes: Gov. Kemp (R-GA) weakens in Georgia. The Map shows, in my estimation, a maximum of 24 seats for Democrats as of September 29th. A shocking poll released on September 18th by third-party Gubernatorial candidate Natalie Bruno in Oklahoma showed the Democratic candidate leading. Two surprising polls in Oregon -- on September 20th and September 24th -- showed the Republican gubernatorial candidate leading. Another shocking poll released on September 21st showed incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) trailing Charlie Crist (D-FL) by 6 points. Model Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/XOL4 The...
This a Marxist idea that the worker is being exploited by the employer, because the employer does not pay him for the full value of his work. If he did, there would be no profit, and since no employer is going to hire someone without earning a profit, any situation where a capitalist hires a worker is exploitation. Here's why I think this is wrong. Consider two workers, Tim and Tom. They are identical twins. Not only are they genetically the same, but for this example they also have exactly the same skills, experience, education, etc. They are both cabinetmakers. Tim runs a one-man operation building and installing cabinets for homeowners and contractors. Tom works at another cabinet shop for wages. When Tim spends a day...
a news feed item about BLM reminded me (yet again) that the unfortunate fact of the matter is, too many on both sides of the political spectrum worship at the same alter (of money and material goods) https://www.christianpost.com/news/trump-most-stunning-example-success-prosperity-gospel.html https://religioninpublic.blog/2017/01/26/trump-and-the-prosperity-gospel/ simply said people in general don't think about or want to acknowledge the fact that there is a price humanity (as a whole) is going to pay because of worshiping material goods
Here is the House Polling Map through September 29th. Map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/2M3O21M Notes: 1) All districts in Utah now have polls. 2) All districts in New Hampshire now have polls. 3) The Democrats have 46 seats, and the Republicans have 44. Here is where I believe the races stand. This projection (Not prediction -- that comes later) comes from public statements candidates have made, issues they have taken, and more. The modifications assume that every voter knows everything about a candidate and counteracts that by only allowing a +1/-1 per statement, issue, etc. The projection comes from the most recent poll taken through September 29th. At least one opinion poll must be taken in a district for the...
Senate: Here is the map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/MYDrP1 Notes on this week's edition: 1) South Carolina releases its first poll for the Tim Scott (R - SC) race 2) Oklahoma releases its first polls for the special election and regular Senate race. 3) The Georgia Senate race flips back in Raphael Warnock's (D-GA) direction 4) Kelly (D-AZ) solidifies his lead in Arizona 5) Murray (D-WA) solidifies her lead in Washington State 6) Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) is weakening in Iowa 7) Laxalt (R-NV) is on top in Nevada 8) South Dakota comes online with John Thune (R-SD) being a solid R. 9) Maryland finally has a poll that doesn't show Gov. Hogan (R-MD) running for Senate. It switches to solid D. 10) Fetterman (D-PA) is...
Hey all you DP people! 👋 I'm bidding you all farewell for a while. I'm basically gonna be taking some extended time off Debate Politics, and focusing specifically on my career. I'm putting all of my available energy into it, and I'm just trying to narrow stuff down in my life to keep my focus. I've landed a job, my first "real" job, and I am both stoked and unbelievably scared to death. It's gonna be quite a doozie, to say the least! I'm glad I've improved my issues with social anxiety ever since I first went to college. It's gotten so much easier for me to talk to people I am not familiar with without stuttering like an idiot, even in situations that make it difficult for me to not be nervous. I'm actually very proud of myself on...
The New Map is here: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/qEbeZg Additional notes: Demings (D-FL) pulled even with Rubio (R-FL) at the beginning of August. Walker leads in the GA race. Kansas comes online and is a solid R. Val Demings (D-FL) briefly took the lead over Rubio (R-FL) at +4 before Rubio led by double digits again. Wisconsin is now solidifying for the Democrats. North Carolina becomes a toss-up. Ohio has only gone Republican when Republican-sponsored polls have been taken Nevada becomes a leaning R thanks to a Trafalgar Group poll If you add in California and Oregon (which do not have polls yet) and flip Maryland to (D) because of a poll that showed the Governor winning the Senate seat, Democrats have 51 seats and...
Here is the map: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/z5LrAEq New in this edition of the map: Continued to add unopposed candidates Added some polls that appeared to be missing from mid-July IA-2 is even CT-5 is even thanks to a Republican Congressional Leadership Fund poll. Lauren Boebert's district finally comes online and is a safe R. CA-9 is even Other Notes: By the beginning of August, Republicans took the lead. By August 29th, Democrats had battled back but still trailed. The main conclusion I reached from watching the map develop was that it is too early to tell whether the Republican leads in the polled seats would hold up. The secondary conclusion I reached is that there are too many conflicting polls. I saw one...
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