My final thoughts:
Minnesota / New Hampshire / Virginia / Nebraska 2nd district - Harris. All of the polls coming out have Harris leading and hitting the 50% mark.
Maine 2nd district - Trump. This one is a toss-up believe it or not. Trump is the only Republican to win the 2nd district since H.W Bush. I am going to throw Mr. Trump a bone for this one. The limited numbers are well within that 3% margin of error.
Florida / Texas - Trump. Same logic for Minnesota, NH, Virginia and Nebraska 2.
Iowa - Trump. Very limited polls, but Iowa has a Republican Governor and both U.S Senators are Republican.
I am going to start with Harris 226, Trump 219.
Michigan / Pennsylvania - Since 2018, both states have voted Democrat for their state-wide races -- Attorney General, U.S Senator, President, and Governor. In 7 of the last 8 elections, the Democrats have won those states for President. The polls are tight and well within the any common margin of error. In 2022, Dr. Oz was favored to beat Jon Fetterman with a 57% chance from 538. Fetterman won by almost 5%. Both Casey and Slotkin have the slight edge over their opponent.
Harris 260, Trump 219
Wisconsin - Since 1988, Wisconsin has gone Democrat 8 of the last 9 elections. Tammy Baldwin has lead in every recent poll, except for one, where it was a tie. Let me also mention that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have gone to the SAME candidate since 1992.
Harris 270, Trump 219
Nevada - They only have 6 electoral college votes, but they are the most accurate state when it comes to the electoral college winner. 80% accuracy or 32/40. Ford and Clinton are the only modern presidential candidates to win Nevada, but lose the electoral college. Rosen holds at least a 5% lead over Brown in the U.S Senate seat.
Harris 276, Trump 219
That leaves three more states. Arizona has a Democratic Governor, and both their Senators are Democrats. Gallego is leading Lake in every poll, except two. Yes, I understand that Trump is performing best in Arizona than any other "swing state", but I am giving it to Harris. The state has been trending blue since 2020 and Hobbs was able to win her governorship race with 50% of the vote, despite being behind by 2-3% in the polls.
North Carolina and Georgia are red states with a slight purple streak. North Carolina prefers their Senators red and their governors blue. Georgia is vice verse. Biden was able to squeak past Trump in Georgia, and Trump was able to squeak past Biden. We could very well see Harris winning all 7 of the big juicy swing states. Warnock was behind in the polls against Walker in 2022, and still won. Mark Robinson's scandal-filled governor candidacy is bad news for Trump. I am going to say a split between the two sun belt states. The last two elections, we saw the electoral college winner taking 6 of those 7 states.
Final prediction: Harris 303, Trump 235.