You don’t know how bad it is

[sjmay]

You are really making assumptions that are not borne out by experience. Let me provide another real-world, currently-happening experience:

I've been conversing with friends in the food industry. Flour and yeast are in short supply, and fresh fruits and vegetables are not shipping. Farmers have lost their primary markets (stores not ordering). They cannot afford to hire pickers, so the harvest is at a stand still. Plants can't wait. Fruits and vegetables are rotting in the fields. One failed crop can drive a farm under because their margins are so small. That is one industry.

My son works for a mom and pop small business. They have a two month margin. That's it. After that, they can't pay rent, suppliers or employees. They're 6 weeks into their margin. If they can't pay suppliers, they can't make product. Their employees are going elsewhere and may not come back. They can't just flip a switch. Most of their orders come from sports leagues, and award seasons (trophies, banners, parting gifts, etc.) Those events are not happening.

The stock market will rebound (somewhat), but is based upon big business. 48 percent of all US employees work for small businesses. That sector is going to be devastated.

I guess I can draw ****ing diagrams....but yea, your right, 48% of the economy, will ****ing stay home and eat ****ing cheetos.

The small business owners, who were independent enough to venture out and try this, are gonna say **** it, and roll back over on their couches, ****, you will never see another mom and pop shop, another small business, ****ing ever.

That's what you are saying, it's embarrassing....

 

[jmotivator]

You gotta remember I wrote that almost a month ago, before the **** truly hit the fan.

So I was in a different section at my company, which is travel related, the day this happened, I was suddenly due to what was happening put onto the line with the customers and as soon as I saw the scale of the problem and the amount of money we were losing, I just, I could not even process it, I actually kind of had to write that to cope with what I was seeing and the kind of conversations I was having, it was actually somewhat traumatizing.

I'm not ashamed to say I drove home in complete silence, I got home and I just... Broke, I cried uncontrollably, because you know like, I don't like to claim I'm good at anything, but I think I do understand a situation beyond just whats immediate, I knew looking at what I was dealing with that if we were losing that kind of money and dealing with a problem of this scale, that the rest of the economy was ****ing toast, I understood the gravity of the situation in that moment and it just, shook me to my core.

Barnacle, what in gods name at this point, would make you think, chances are I'm wrong?

Come over here, let me show you something:

This is the kind of thing we mean when we say the cure could be worse than the illness. Many of these jobs won't spring back. The businesses that employed these people are gone. We've been so zealous in a draconian lock down nobody seems to think about what happens on the other side of this.

It is a frightening mess, to be sure.

 

[Bodi]

There are a number of posters here who simply still cannot comprehend the scale of this situation. Nothing in our history compares to it directly. Nothing. I am an incredibly optimistic person, but I was shaken as well as I realized what was going to happen. We are only now, probably, at the beginning of the end of it, but the tail of this pandemic is going to be very long indeed.

The USA and the world have been through tough times before and we will get through it like we did then. The world is not over. Things will resume.

 

[Bodi]

You are really making assumptions that are not borne out by experience. Let me provide another real-world, currently-happening experience:

I've been conversing with friends in the food industry. Flour and yeast are in short supply, and fresh fruits and vegetables are not shipping. Farmers have lost their primary markets (stores not ordering). They cannot afford to hire pickers, so the harvest is at a stand still. Plants can't wait. Fruits and vegetables are rotting in the fields. One failed crop can drive a farm under because their margins are so small. That is one industry.

My son works for a mom and pop small business. They have a two month margin. That's it. After that, they can't pay rent, suppliers or employees. They're 6 weeks into their margin. If they can't pay suppliers, they can't make product. Their employees are going elsewhere and may not come back. They can't just flip a switch. Most of their orders come from sports leagues, and award seasons (trophies, banners, parting gifts, etc.) Those events are not happening.

The stock market will rebound (somewhat), but is based upon big business. 48 percent of all US employees work for small businesses. That sector is going to be devastated.

The Stock Market and Bankers will be fine after this is all over and that really tells us what the priority is...

 

[NWRatCon]

I guess I can draw ****ing diagrams....but yea, your right, 48% of the economy, will ****ing stay home and eat ****ing cheetos.

The small business owners, who were independent enough to venture out and try this, are gonna say **** it, and roll back over on their couches, ****, you will never see another mom and pop shop, another small business, ****ing ever.

That's what you are saying, it's embarrassing....

My friend, you don't have a ****ing clue about the real world. That is beyond embarrassing.

 

[Slavister]

This is the kind of thing we mean when we say the cure could be worse than the illness. Many of these jobs won't spring back. The businesses that employed these people are gone. We've been so zealous in a draconian lock down nobody seems to think about what happens on the other side of this.

It is a frightening mess, to be sure.

And if we let 1-2 million people die and completely overrun our healthcare system in the process, you think economy would fair any better?

 

[PoS]

And if we let 1-2 million people die and completely overrun our healthcare system in the process, you think economy would fair any better?

Why do people keep saying this 1-2 million deaths is somehow a certainty? It's a prediction based on modeling.

 

[jmotivator]

And if we let 1-2 million people die and completely overrun our healthcare system in the process, you think economy would fair any better?

I am not making an extreme argument the way you are. Priority quarantine of those at greatest risk would be quarantining people largely not in the work force anyway. People would get sick, but the mortality rate of those not in the high risk group is very low.

 

[Fletch]

This is the kind of thing we mean when we say the cure could be worse than the illness. Many of these jobs won't spring back. The businesses that employed these people are gone. We've been so zealous in a draconian lock down nobody seems to think about what happens on the other side of this.

It is a frightening mess, to be sure.

Since the moment they started these statewide lockdowns I warned of Depression Era unemployment, and here it is. Re-firing the global engine is going to take a long time and all this funny-money being thrown around is a whole nuther story.

 

[Slavister]

I am not making an extreme argument the way you are. Priority quarantine of those at greatest risk would be quarantining people largely not in the work force anyway. People would get sick, but the mortality rate of those not in the high risk group is very low.

Good idea but here is a hint: why did not a single country in the world or a single state do THAT?

 

[NWRatCon]

I am not making an extreme argument the way you are. Priority quarantine of those at greatest risk would be quarantining people largely not in the work force anyway. People would get sick, but the mortality rate of those not in the high risk group is very low.

Perhaps, my friend, you don't recognize just how extreme (or inaccurate) your argument is. If, at the outset of this outbreak, the United States had adequate testing protocols in place less extreme measures might have been available. That ship sailed months ago.

In the real world, your "solution" puts millions more innocent people at risk. You are making assumptions and assertions that are simply divorced from evidence and experience. For example: the EMS department of the FDNY has had a 1000+% increase in cardiac calls over the last 5 weeks. That is with the lockdown in place. (A cardiac call is one where someone is either in cardiac distress or arrest. The majority don't survive.) The NYPD has a full 10% of its force out with COVID-19 symptoms and 10 percent of those have died. These are, by definition, younger, healthy individuals in the workforce. Imagine taking that experience and applying it to every workforce (which is what you're suggesting). Except that would not be accurate, you'd need to double those figures at least, because those are people who have taken precautions and have resources in place, yet still succumbed.

Then you have the experience of the medical system to consider. Doctors and nurses are getting sick and dying at a horrid pace in this environment. Our health system was already inadequate - understaffed and underresourced - and is quickly being overwhelmed. It will be worse when it reaches rural enclaves. I know, I used to work there.Calm Before The Storm: Rural Hospital Workforce Pushed To The Breaking Point When Treating COVID-19 (Forbes).

In short, you don't know what you're suggesting. It is a recipe for disaster.