- Joined
- Sep 28, 2011
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- Conservative
I think current and future alliances are, at this point, somewhat Murkey. Each country will apply the rule of "who is your biggest adversary" to your ambitions.
For China, at the moment, the US appears to be it's biggest adversary. If there was any prior doubt, Trump's EXTREMELY aggressive tariffs to damage their export economy and seeming halfhearted posture to aid Tiawan means China will be looking for allies.
- Russia is a potential ally. Russia has shown it can manipulate US leaders, and effectively has turned the US into a friendly and supportive ally for its imperial ambitions. However, Russia also must balance its new power via Trump so as to not interfere with Trump should he wish to defend SE Asia from Chinese expansionism.
- Europe is also a potential ally. Trump is effectively destroying the post WW2 alliance of western and democratic nations. As Trump loves to shit on America's traditional allies (Israel excepted) China would find it most useful to ally with Europe, not only in Trade but also Geo Political influence. Unlike Russia, Europe and China have no reason to clash and while Europe was increasingly open to helping the US in defending Asia from Chinese expansion, Trump burned that bridge...paving the way for Europeans to give the finger to the US elsewhere.
- Asia. While seemingly unlikely, Trump is paving the way for Asian nations who can't trust Trump to consider a tributary state status with China. Trump has shown both China and the rest of the world is that he only has the courage of a bully, talks big but is totally unreliable, and will bend the knee to regional powers who will take what they want. Both regional "allies" and China know this and as Trump won't commit to helping Tiawan should China make a move; it is almost certain that sometime in Trump's term China will blockade Tiawan and my bet is that Trump will fold like a house of cards - he might even endorse it like he does Russia's naked aggression.
Russia
Russia' biggest adversary is all of Western Europe. It is in the position of using its power to "swing" between China and the US as it pleases to get what they want. Putin's next targets are in Europe, and the ones most likely on the top of his list is Moldovia and the Baltic States. As Russia no longer fears a NATO that is falling apart and a US that is cutting and running across the globe it probably won't need Chinas help, but if it should need China's help, it will gladly return the favor provide assistance to China in its imperial ambitions.
US
Trump has no clear strategic goals for the US so its potential adversaries are conditional upon Trump's whims of the moment, however they are usually focused on those weaker "friends" that he has leverage over. Trumps pattern has been "Keep your enemies close and your allies frightened of you so as to exploit their weakness". Hence, his prior leanings to SE Asian allies seems to be weakening, perhaps because he wants to carve up SE Asia between the US and China as cooperative imperialists.
Will there be a major war in the next five years?
Almost certainly. Trump's deliberate destruction on the western alliance and punishment of former allies will allow Putin to restart aggression in Europe after a rebuilding of Russian imperial forces. China may, in concert, begin a campaign to blockade and even take Tiawan. In addition, China may get serious about seizing the South China sea and with their ever-growing navy easily sink any smaller powers naval forces should they resist.
The US could be faced with combined Russian and Chinese aggression and Europe will be fighting in its own defense to give any help to the US in Asia, and even if it weren't, Trump has burned that bridge.
By 2028 the "World war" will be a result of US policy blunders and attempts to play "half court tennis" with Tariffs. Europe, Canada, Mexico will side with whoever hates the US, most likely China.
And it will occur in the next five years because the world's autocrats fear a future President who will likely start working to undue Trumps horrific damage to the world order so both Russia and China will want to move during or at the end of the Trump clown show is in office.
For China, at the moment, the US appears to be it's biggest adversary. If there was any prior doubt, Trump's EXTREMELY aggressive tariffs to damage their export economy and seeming halfhearted posture to aid Tiawan means China will be looking for allies.
- Russia is a potential ally. Russia has shown it can manipulate US leaders, and effectively has turned the US into a friendly and supportive ally for its imperial ambitions. However, Russia also must balance its new power via Trump so as to not interfere with Trump should he wish to defend SE Asia from Chinese expansionism.
- Europe is also a potential ally. Trump is effectively destroying the post WW2 alliance of western and democratic nations. As Trump loves to shit on America's traditional allies (Israel excepted) China would find it most useful to ally with Europe, not only in Trade but also Geo Political influence. Unlike Russia, Europe and China have no reason to clash and while Europe was increasingly open to helping the US in defending Asia from Chinese expansion, Trump burned that bridge...paving the way for Europeans to give the finger to the US elsewhere.
- Asia. While seemingly unlikely, Trump is paving the way for Asian nations who can't trust Trump to consider a tributary state status with China. Trump has shown both China and the rest of the world is that he only has the courage of a bully, talks big but is totally unreliable, and will bend the knee to regional powers who will take what they want. Both regional "allies" and China know this and as Trump won't commit to helping Tiawan should China make a move; it is almost certain that sometime in Trump's term China will blockade Tiawan and my bet is that Trump will fold like a house of cards - he might even endorse it like he does Russia's naked aggression.
Russia
Russia' biggest adversary is all of Western Europe. It is in the position of using its power to "swing" between China and the US as it pleases to get what they want. Putin's next targets are in Europe, and the ones most likely on the top of his list is Moldovia and the Baltic States. As Russia no longer fears a NATO that is falling apart and a US that is cutting and running across the globe it probably won't need Chinas help, but if it should need China's help, it will gladly return the favor provide assistance to China in its imperial ambitions.
US
Trump has no clear strategic goals for the US so its potential adversaries are conditional upon Trump's whims of the moment, however they are usually focused on those weaker "friends" that he has leverage over. Trumps pattern has been "Keep your enemies close and your allies frightened of you so as to exploit their weakness". Hence, his prior leanings to SE Asian allies seems to be weakening, perhaps because he wants to carve up SE Asia between the US and China as cooperative imperialists.
Will there be a major war in the next five years?
Almost certainly. Trump's deliberate destruction on the western alliance and punishment of former allies will allow Putin to restart aggression in Europe after a rebuilding of Russian imperial forces. China may, in concert, begin a campaign to blockade and even take Tiawan. In addition, China may get serious about seizing the South China sea and with their ever-growing navy easily sink any smaller powers naval forces should they resist.
The US could be faced with combined Russian and Chinese aggression and Europe will be fighting in its own defense to give any help to the US in Asia, and even if it weren't, Trump has burned that bridge.
By 2028 the "World war" will be a result of US policy blunders and attempts to play "half court tennis" with Tariffs. Europe, Canada, Mexico will side with whoever hates the US, most likely China.
And it will occur in the next five years because the world's autocrats fear a future President who will likely start working to undue Trumps horrific damage to the world order so both Russia and China will want to move during or at the end of the Trump clown show is in office.
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