Why Voters Will Feel the Impact of GOP Health Cuts Before the Midterms

[Greenbeard]

The “One Big Beautiful Bill” is already unpopular, but one danger for the GOP is that they didn’t make the fuse long enough on the parts blowing up people’s health care that they were hoping to push beyond the midterms. As it turns out, the next year is going to be a dreadful one for health care thanks to that bill and raising the salience of your worst issue in an election year is generally unwise.

Why Voters Will Feel the Impact of GOP Health Cuts Before the Midterms

The conventional wisdom in Washington is that by pushing off big changes to Medicaid until after the 2026 midterms, Republicans shielded themselves from voter backlash.

Don’t be so sure.

Health insurance subsidies that were expanded or “enhanced” under President Joe Biden’s pandemic relief law are set to expire at year’s end unless Congress acts. The subsidies, first created in the Affordable Care Act, now reach into the middle class — providing relief to those who make up to four times the federal poverty level ($128,600 for a family of four next year). Without the so-called enhanced subsidies, CBO projects around 5 million people will lose ACA coverage over a decade — and more than 2 million next year — with many deciding they can no longer afford it. We’ll start to see the dip soon: open enrollment for 2026 ACA coverage starts Nov 1.

Much of the congressional debate over the megabill focused on rural hospitals — but the entire safety net is increasingly strained. That will be felt sooner than many think.
“There will be impacts before the ’26 midterms,” said Bruce Siegel, president and CEO of America’s Essential Hospitals which represents “safety net” hospitals serving low-income communities. He said he’s spoken to “literally dozens” of hospital chief executives drawing up contingency plans to lay off staff and close services. Maternity care. Trauma centers. Outpatient clinics. Behavioral health.

By far the biggest health changes in the new law affect Medicaid, which saw sweeping spending cuts and policy changes, particularly for people covered under the Medicaid expansion in the ACA. Millions are expected to lose coverage in the coming decade. Now, it’s true that the biggest changes begin after the November elections — though not much after. But many people are likely to find out that their benefits are at risk before they cast their ballots.

If, as the industry expects, the regulations come out in mid-2026, and it takes about 90 days to digest and translate them into consumer-friendly language, that would mean a big messaging wave could come just before people go to the polls. Notifications about work rules will also come out around then.

We’re going to see more and more cataloging of the bill’s disastrous effects as we go. These are just from the past week:

How Medicaid cuts will hurt every hospital — including yours

Regardless of your political views, we can all agree that hospitals have to be solvent to stay open, write Anesu Karen Murambadoro and John Wixted. The Medicaid cuts included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act disrupt the economics of our health system making care harder to access and more...

www.wbur.org

Trump’s Medicaid Cuts Were Aimed at ‘Able-Bodied Adults.’ Hospitals Say Kids Will Be Hurt. - KFF Health News

The GOP said its overhaul of Medicaid was aimed at reducing fraud and getting more adult beneficiaries to work. Among the likely side effects: fewer services and doctors for treating sick children.

kffhealthnews.org

Trump’s Medicaid Cuts Could Hamper Efforts to House the Homeless

President Trump’s signature domestic policy law could make it harder for states to fund programs to help people find stable housing.

www.nytimes.com

Inside the hospital ‘war rooms’ bracing for Medicaid cuts

In the war rooms hospitals have stood up to respond to historic Medicaid cuts, leaders are planning substantial financial moves and innovative solutions as they brace for revenue dips.

www.statnews.com

And even over a year prior to implementation, the impact of the impending cuts is starting to be felt this week.

Rural Georgia hospital to close its labor and delivery unit, in part due to Medicaid cuts

St. Mary’s Sacred Heart Hospital in rural northeast Georgia will discontinue its maternal health services next month as its parent company moves to consolidate OB/GYN services to one location, the hospital announced last week. The closure of St. Mary’s labor and delivery unit in Lavonia is one...

www.wabe.org

Medicaid cuts push Western New York hospitals to close surgery centers, clinics

Upcoming Medicaid cuts are forcing local hospitals to make tough budget decisions. Here’s what that could mean for patients.

www.wgrz.com

 

[Callen]

The “One Big Beautiful Bill” is already popular,

Did you mean popular or unpopular?

 

[Peacenik]

Most Americans are not very well informed. They don't care about actual news. A little infotainment and they're fine. They figure they have checked the box that says they are socially obligated to be 'informed,' - meaning they can utter a planted opinion about the workings of our nation and not appear to be a complete dunce. This news is not going to affect their voting - if they do that at all.

What they do respond to is running out of money. And that's what Republicans are doing to them. Putting the corporate billionaire squeeze on them - shaking them down for every dollar they can. When people find their money not going as far as it used to they don't like it. They tend to blame the party in power.

Republicans are going to take the heat over the loss of health care and the jacking up of the costs for healthcare.

 

[Greenbeard]

Did you mean popular or unpopular?

Good catch! Always dangerous posting before that first cup of coffee.

 

[Greenbeard]

Lots of pain coming if the GOP sticks to its guns.

Here’s who will be hit with higher premiums if ACA enhanced subsidies expire

Many Affordable Care Act insurance enrollees facing premium spikes next year are part of sought-after voting demographics.

The looming premium increase is due to the Dec. 31 expiration of enhanced tax credits for ACA marketplace plans. Congressional Democrats and Republicans are at a standoff over whether to extend the credits.

Enrollment in marketplace plans has more than doubled since 2020, and most of that growth has been in states won by President Trump.

Also, two key groups of voters would be especially hard hit by the expiration of the enhanced credits: people between the ages of 50 and 64, and small businesses.

Without an extension, the average insurance premium will rise by 75%, according to KFF, but the increases will vary considerably depending on income and age. The highest increases will be for those nearing retirement age, and people with incomes more than 400% above the poverty line, because they’ll lose the subsidies entirely.

Voters in the 45- to 64-year-old age group account for 51 million voters, according to KFF, compared to 43 million voters who are seniors and 46 million voters in the 25- to 44-year-old age group.

KFF also estimates that 48% of adults under age 65 enrolled in individual market plans own a small business, are employed by a business with fewer than 25 workers, or are self-employed entrepreneurs. The vast majority of the individual market plans are purchased from the ACA marketplaces.

 

[Callen]

Given the unpopularity of the bill any degradation in health services , especially in rural areas, will be blamed on the BBB so I think it will be an issue in 2026 even thought the mandate part has not kicked in. Mind you the Dems need to make this a big part of their messaging along with jobs/economy/inflation but they have to do it in a solutions oriented way .

 

[Greenbeard]

Most Americans are not very well informed. They don't care about actual news. A little infotainment and they're fine.

Worth noting that one of the infotainers who has been most vocal and insistent about Americans’ need for health care has been Kimmel, following his son’s heart issues. He was a powerful voice on the issue the last time the GOP tried to take a buzz saw to people’s health care back in 2017.

 

[ttwtt78640]

That’s due to how congress critters use the sunset ‘tool’ to have their spending increase get lower CBO 10-year “budget” costs (scores?). They make the additional spending ‘temporary’ and then pretend the other party is making cuts when that increased spending expires.

 

[Peacenik]

Worth noting that one of the infotainers who has been most vocal and insistent about Americans’ need for health care has been Kimmel, following his son’s heart issues. He was a powerful voice on the issue the last time the GOP tried to take a buzz saw to people’s health care back in 2017.

Kimmel is not what I meant by using the term 'infotainment.'

I know the common understanding of the term is entertainers who use politics as part of their act, but when I use the term I am referring to the 24-7 news cycle and the fact that most of what people think of as "news" is actually just fluff and bloviating. The actual news of the day can be delivered in about 5 minutes. Details are lacking. Instead of investigative reporting (something which has almost completely vanished) and filling in details, most of 'news programming' is what I call infotainment. It's just opinion. Like the Fox 'news' show where people sit around on a couch and talk about the news. They are not presenting any news or even much in the way of details. They are simply bloviating about it. That's what people watch; and they think they are getting informed in so doing. (They are not.)

When I said:

"Most Americans are not very well informed. They don't care about actual news. A little infotainment and they're fine."

I meant that most Americans, if they watch any "news" at all (many don't) what they watch is not really news but bloviating.

 

[Mr Person]

That’s due to how congress critters use the sunset ‘tool’ to have their spending increase get lower CBO 10-year “budget” costs (scores?). They make the additional spending ‘temporary’ and then pretend the other party is making cuts when that increased spending expires.

We are just so disinterested in the inevitable defense, deflection, and distraction, the whattabouts, both-sides, and hey look over there comments, ttwtt.

This is due to the fact that a bunch of self-absorbed piece of shit right wingers as always want what right wingers want: to use government to get all the benefits for themselves, while blocking spending on anything that benefits anyone else. The opposite of working for the general welfare.

That's what this is about - the direct necessary effect of the "Big Beautiful Bill" - not some both sides crap about "congress critters".

 

[Greenbeard]

Kimmel is not what I meant by using the term 'infotainment.'

Understood, I just found the silencing of another voice that’s been strong on health care issues convenient as we head toward a shutdown over the GOP’s health care cuts.

 

[Greenbeard]

These types of stories are going to start piling up.

Seattle Children’s to cut 150 jobs, citing loss of federal funds

The hospital says 154 employees will be laid off and 350 open positions eliminated in November.

www.king5.com

 

[Rogue Valley]

Even here, @ Debate Politics, members don't seem too interested or concerned about the looming cuts to healthcare by the Trump/GOP BBB.

They seem to believe that Trump/GOP would never **** over them because they have been good MAGA soldiers.

The closing of rural hospitals and clinics will be a huge wake-up call for the MAGA cult.

 

[Greenbeard]

Even here, @ Debate Politics, members don't seem too interested or concerned about the looming cuts to healthcare by the Trump/GOP BBB.

They seem to believe that Trump/GOP would never **** over them because they have been good MAGA soldiers.

The closing of rural hospitals and clinics will be a huge wake-up call for the MAGA cult.

I imagine they're thrilled. Now these lazy kids can go get jobs instead of clogging up our children's hospitals.

Trump’s Medicaid Cuts Were Aimed at ‘Able-Bodied Adults.’ Hospitals Say Kids Will Be Hurt. - KFF Health News

The GOP said its overhaul of Medicaid was aimed at reducing fraud and getting more adult beneficiaries to work. Among the likely side effects: fewer services and doctors for treating sick children.

kffhealthnews.org