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Why the Russian Economy Is Tumbling

JANFU

Land by the Gulf Stream
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http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Is now the time for the West to reach - negotiate a deal on Ukraine?
My opinion- Russia will not retreat from Crimea.
Your thoughts are?
What should be clear in any deal signed.
 

Russia is just another example of the failures of Govt intervention and Central planning.

Who decided that a economy based entirely off a volatile commodity was a good idea?

Venezuela is in the same boat. Govt annexed ( stole ) private industries and then ran them into the ground all under the pretense of fairness and equity

Since the Socialist central planners mismanaged all of Venezuela's other wealth creating industries ( Venezuela has to import Coffee ) there was nothing to fall back on.

There was never any attempt to build a diverse economy in either case
 

What always bothers me about this conversation is the assumption that everyone in Crimea want to be with the Ukraine. Something like 30% of Crimea is Russian, and there are still pockets of the Ukraine that have high Russian concentrations. The other bad assumption is that the Ukrainian government was nice and kind to these people. I am not saying it was all terrible, but it sure was not some roses and sunshine attitude about a group of people with a stronger tie to Russian legacy than the Ukrainian government as it was.

As far as "the west" (i.e. NATO and/or the EU and/or the UN) reaching out further to Ukraine that will probably happen anyway, no matter if Russia's economic conditions improve or not. But that has little to do with Crimea or any other Ukraine and Russian conflict, and more to do with just antagonizing Russia. The more "the west" knocks on the door of Russia itself the more Putin is likely to respond with continued counter antagonism of Sweden, Finland, and Alaskan airspace.

But for US interests in Ukraine to advance at all, Ukraine will have to eventually agree on how to deal with Putin... who is right next door. Including dealing with Turkey and access to the Black Sea.

Oil will be depressed for at least the rest of this year, assuming no major world events to change the dynamic on why oil prices are low.
 
The Russian invasion, referendum, and and annexation of Crimea were all illegal actions which violated international law, the Ukraine constitution, and the Crimea constitution. 4% of the population of Ukraine (those living in Crimea) cannot unilaterally decide the fate of land that belongs to all 46 million Ukrainian citizens. Both constitutions specified a Ukrainian national referendum (all of Ukraine) to change the status of Crimea.

I have lived in Crimea when it was Ukrainian. 98% of civil problems were caused by ethnic Russian nationalists and imperialists. Under a Russian occupation administration, an ethnic Ukrainian is today considered a foreigner (in their own land) unless an oath of allegiance to Russia is taken. As under Stalin, the Russians are again persecuting the Crimean Taters. Also constrained now are religions that are not Russian Orthodox.

If Russia forcibly retains Crimea, Moscow should compensate Ukraine for her losses of land, coastline, national property, mineral rights, and taxes. Sanctions should remain in place until either Crimea is returned to Ukraine or Ukraine is financially compensated (made whole again in legal terminology).


Russia is a petro-state that depends on the export of petroleum products. Previously, Moscow predicated its national budget on a global price of $100+ for a barrel of oil. Anything below this and cuts must be made. Because of Western sanctions, Moscow has not been able to borrow its way out of the oil slump. So Moscow has raided its two national "well being" funds to minimize economic damage. But at the recent rate of expenditure, these rainy-day funds will be bare by the end of 2017.

Another huge problem in Russia is corruption. It scorches everything. Russia east of the Urals (which constitutes most of the Russia landmass) is third world poor.
 

I am not entirely sure I disagree with any of that.

My point is, we are making a mistake with the suggestion that the Ukrainian government did everything right. Or that the motivations of "the west" is really all about the humanitarian effort here.

Believe what you will, but I am not surprised that Crimea is now apart of Russia (illegally or otherwise.)
 
OrphanSlug said:
I am not entirely sure I disagree with any of that.
Click to expand...
Good. To underscore...

Crimea authorities ban Tatar governing body




Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2015 - Russia




Organization for Security and Co‑operation in Europe
Published on Apr 13, 2016
Why We Can Never Accept Russia's Illegal Attempt to Annex Crimea: OSCE Diplomats

[video=youtube;7NGacuFqano]http://www.youtube.com/watch?7NGacuFqano[/video]
 
Tigerace117 said:
But oil and gas prices can't stay down forever, and people are more likely to blame the West for trying to destroy Russia with economic warfare than they are to blame Putin
Click to expand...

More to do with the Saudi's cutting the nuts out of the market. The US and Canada have felt the Saudi under pricing of oil.
 
Simpleχity;1065766828 said:
Good. To underscore...
Click to expand...

You are missing the point and cutting out what you do not like, but know is factual. If the government of Ukraine handled relations better with their own citizens with historical ties to Russia not a bit of this would have happened this way.

Quit pretending the government of Ukraine did everything on the level. It is bull****, and you know that.
 

Prior to the USSR transferring Crimea to Ukrainian, how log was it Russian territory?
 

The OSCE can change their minds. Depends upon how a deal is reached and what is in it.
We, those with a lick of sense realize how Putin works.
Look at present day Chechnya.
And in my opinion, he under Yeltsin, orchestrated the bombings in Moscow as a false flag to invade Chechnya.

Finally, We Know About the Moscow Bombings by Amy Knight | The New York Review of Books
 
The sour relationship between Kyiv and ethnic Russian nationalists in Crimea was never a secret. But in my experience living on the peninsula, no ethnicity was persecuted to warrant an invasion.

Even pro-Russia former Ukraine president Viktor Yanukovych (now living in Russia) states that Moscow was entirely wrong to invade/annex Crimea.

With its invasion, Russia violated numerous international treaties and mutual agreements with Ukraine:

■ United Nations Charter (1945)

■ On Transfer of Crimean Region from the RSFSR to the Ukrainian SSR (USSR Supreme Soviet Presidium - February/April 1954)

■ Helsinki Accords (1975)

■ 1977 Soviet Constitution (Brezhnev Constitution)

■ Declaration № 142-Н of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union (1991)

■ Belavezha Accords (Creation Agreement) (1991)

■ Alma-Ata Protocol (1991)

■ Joint Russo-Ukrainian Black Sea Fleet Agreement (1992)

■ Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances (1994)

■ The Partition Treaty on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet (1997)

■ Russian-Ukrainian Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership (1997) (Article 2 - Reaffirmed “the inviolability of the existing borders”)

■ Agreement between Ukraine and Russia on the Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine (Kharkiv Pact - 2010)
 
Casper said:
Putin is looking for a fight, good for his economy and keeps his people busy watching that instead of see all the other problems, old tactic and it works.
Click to expand...

Economy tanking, going to get worse, their oil production technology out of date, the Stans, Chechnya and areas are a hotbed of dissent- Islamic groups.
Foreign reserves dropping fast, no international loans, yeah, he is ready or near to making a deal.
 
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