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Why the Russian Economy Is Tumbling

JANFU

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http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Low oil prices and international sanctions have crippled Russia’s economy. The country has been operating at a deficit since 2012, and its Reserve Fund is slated to run out by 2017. Last week, the World Bank warned that the poverty rate in Russia is rising sharply.

Depending on Oil Revenue

One reason for Russia’s current economic situation is the sharp decline in global oil prices since June 2014. “Russia’s economy never diversified away from oil and raw materials export dependence,” Kimberly Marten, a political science professor at Barnard College and Columbia University, said in a recent email. In 2015, oil and gas accounted for 43 percent of the government’s revenue.
Is now the time for the West to reach - negotiate a deal on Ukraine?
My opinion- Russia will not retreat from Crimea.
Your thoughts are?
What should be clear in any deal signed.
 

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http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...st-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news


Is now the time for the West to reach - negotiate a deal on Ukraine?
My opinion- Russia will not retreat from Crimea.
Your thoughts are?
What should be clear in any deal signed.

Russia is just another example of the failures of Govt intervention and Central planning.

Who decided that a economy based entirely off a volatile commodity was a good idea?

Venezuela is in the same boat. Govt annexed ( stole ) private industries and then ran them into the ground all under the pretense of fairness and equity

Since the Socialist central planners mismanaged all of Venezuela's other wealth creating industries ( Venezuela has to import Coffee ) there was nothing to fall back on.

There was never any attempt to build a diverse economy in either case
 

Tigerace117

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OrphanSlug

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http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...st-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Is now the time for the West to reach - negotiate a deal on Ukraine?
My opinion- Russia will not retreat from Crimea.
Your thoughts are?
What should be clear in any deal signed.

What always bothers me about this conversation is the assumption that everyone in Crimea want to be with the Ukraine. Something like 30% of Crimea is Russian, and there are still pockets of the Ukraine that have high Russian concentrations. The other bad assumption is that the Ukrainian government was nice and kind to these people. I am not saying it was all terrible, but it sure was not some roses and sunshine attitude about a group of people with a stronger tie to Russian legacy than the Ukrainian government as it was.

As far as "the west" (i.e. NATO and/or the EU and/or the UN) reaching out further to Ukraine that will probably happen anyway, no matter if Russia's economic conditions improve or not. But that has little to do with Crimea or any other Ukraine and Russian conflict, and more to do with just antagonizing Russia. The more "the west" knocks on the door of Russia itself the more Putin is likely to respond with continued counter antagonism of Sweden, Finland, and Alaskan airspace.

But for US interests in Ukraine to advance at all, Ukraine will have to eventually agree on how to deal with Putin... who is right next door. Including dealing with Turkey and access to the Black Sea.

Oil will be depressed for at least the rest of this year, assuming no major world events to change the dynamic on why oil prices are low.
 

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What always bothers me about this conversation is the assumption that everyone in Crimea want to be with the Ukraine. Something like 30% of Crimea is Russian, and there are still pockets of the Ukraine that have high Russian concentrations. The other bad assumption is that the Ukrainian government was nice and kind to these people. I am not saying it was all terrible, but it sure was not some roses and sunshine attitude about a group of people with a stronger tie to Russian legacy than the Ukrainian government as it was.
The Russian invasion, referendum, and and annexation of Crimea were all illegal actions which violated international law, the Ukraine constitution, and the Crimea constitution. 4% of the population of Ukraine (those living in Crimea) cannot unilaterally decide the fate of land that belongs to all 46 million Ukrainian citizens. Both constitutions specified a Ukrainian national referendum (all of Ukraine) to change the status of Crimea.

I have lived in Crimea when it was Ukrainian. 98% of civil problems were caused by ethnic Russian nationalists and imperialists. Under a Russian occupation administration, an ethnic Ukrainian is today considered a foreigner (in their own land) unless an oath of allegiance to Russia is taken. As under Stalin, the Russians are again persecuting the Crimean Taters. Also constrained now are religions that are not Russian Orthodox.

If Russia forcibly retains Crimea, Moscow should compensate Ukraine for her losses of land, coastline, national property, mineral rights, and taxes. Sanctions should remain in place until either Crimea is returned to Ukraine or Ukraine is financially compensated (made whole again in legal terminology).



Russia is a petro-state that depends on the export of petroleum products. Previously, Moscow predicated its national budget on a global price of $100+ for a barrel of oil. Anything below this and cuts must be made. Because of Western sanctions, Moscow has not been able to borrow its way out of the oil slump. So Moscow has raided its two national "well being" funds to minimize economic damage. But at the recent rate of expenditure, these rainy-day funds will be bare by the end of 2017.

Another huge problem in Russia is corruption. It scorches everything. Russia east of the Urals (which constitutes most of the Russia landmass) is third world poor.
 

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Simpleχity;1065764800 said:
The Russian invasion, referendum, and and annexation of Crimea were all illegal actions which violated international law, the Ukraine constitution, and the Crimea constitution. 4% of the population of Ukraine (those living in Crimea) cannot unilaterally decide the fate of land that belongs to all 46 million Ukrainian citizens. Both constitutions specified a Ukrainian national referendum (all of Ukraine) to change the status of Crimea.

I have lived in Crimea when it was Ukrainian. 98% of civil problems were caused by ethnic Russian nationalists and imperialists. Under a Russian occupation administration, an ethnic Ukrainian is today considered a foreigner (in their own land) unless an oath of allegiance to Russia is taken. As under Stalin, the Russians are again persecuting the Crimean Taters. Also constrained now are religions that are not Russian Orthodox.

If Russia forcibly retains Crimea, Moscow should compensate Ukraine for her losses of land, coastline, national property, mineral rights, and taxes. Sanctions should remain in place until either Crimea is returned to Ukraine or Ukraine is financially compensated (made whole again in legal terminology).



Russia is a petro-state that depends on the export of petroleum products. Previously, Moscow predicated its national budget on a global price of $100+ for a barrel of oil. Anything below this and cuts must be made. Because of Western sanctions, Moscow has not been able to borrow its way out of the oil slump. So Moscow has raided its two national "well being" funds to minimize economic damage. But at the recent rate of expenditure, these rainy-day funds will be bare by the end of 2017.

Another huge problem in Russia is corruption. It scorches everything. Russia east of the Urals (which constitutes most of the Russia landmass) is third world poor.

I am not entirely sure I disagree with any of that.

My point is, we are making a mistake with the suggestion that the Ukrainian government did everything right. Or that the motivations of "the west" is really all about the humanitarian effort here.

Believe what you will, but I am not surprised that Crimea is now apart of Russia (illegally or otherwise.)
 

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I am not entirely sure I disagree with any of that.
Good. To underscore...

Crimea authorities ban Tatar governing body

AFP | Moscow
April 14, 2016

The Russian authorities in Crimea today banned the governing body of the Crimean Tatar community, the Mejlis, in a move slammed by international rights groups. The Mejlis, a respected decision-making body of the Crimean Tatar minority on the Black Sea peninsula that Moscow annexed in March 2014, has resisted Russian rule and operated under pressure, with many key figures banished from the region. The organisation has represented the Crimean Tatars, a Muslim people native to Crimea who were deported under Stalin and only returned to the peninsula in the 1990s.

Amnesty International said in a statement the decision was "aimed at snuffing out dissent" and "demolishes one of the few remaining rights of a minority that Russia must protect instead of persecute." It added that the Crimean Tatars have "borne the brunt of Russia's clampdown in the region," with at least six people disappearing and one found dead in 2014. Russia has prosecuted several community leaders for a rally that took place prior to annexation, charging them with terrorism in February. The prominent Crimean Tatar television channel ATR was forced off the air last year.



Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2015 - Russia

The Russian government has initiated a range of measures to suppress dissent including new repressive laws and selective prosecution to harass, discredit, prosecute, imprison, detain, fine, and suppress individuals and organizations engaged in activities critical of the government. The Russian government has especially targeted individuals and organizations that have opposed the Kremlin's forceful and illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region and Moscow's support for separatists who are fighting Kyiv's forces in eastern Ukraine. Russian authorities controlling Crimea have subjected Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars on the peninsula to "systematic harassment and discrimination."



Organization for Security and Co‑operation in Europe
Published on Apr 13, 2016
Why We Can Never Accept Russia's Illegal Attempt to Annex Crimea: OSCE Diplomats

[video=youtube;7NGacuFqano]http://www.youtube.com/watch?7NGacuFqano[/video]
 

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But oil and gas prices can't stay down forever, and people are more likely to blame the West for trying to destroy Russia with economic warfare than they are to blame Putin

More to do with the Saudi's cutting the nuts out of the market. The US and Canada have felt the Saudi under pricing of oil.
 

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Simpleχity;1065766828 said:
Good. To underscore...

You are missing the point and cutting out what you do not like, but know is factual. If the government of Ukraine handled relations better with their own citizens with historical ties to Russia not a bit of this would have happened this way.

Quit pretending the government of Ukraine did everything on the level. It is bull****, and you know that.
 

JANFU

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Simpleχity;1065764800 said:
The Russian invasion, referendum, and and annexation of Crimea were all illegal actions which violated international law, the Ukraine constitution, and the Crimea constitution. 4% of the population of Ukraine (those living in Crimea) cannot unilaterally decide the fate of land that belongs to all 46 million Ukrainian citizens. Both constitutions specified a Ukrainian national referendum (all of Ukraine) to change the status of Crimea.

I have lived in Crimea when it was Ukrainian. 98% of civil problems were caused by ethnic Russian nationalists and imperialists. Under a Russian occupation administration, an ethnic Ukrainian is today considered a foreigner (in their own land) unless an oath of allegiance to Russia is taken. As under Stalin, the Russians are again persecuting the Crimean Taters. Also constrained now are religions that are not Russian Orthodox.

If Russia forcibly retains Crimea, Moscow should compensate Ukraine for her losses of land, coastline, national property, mineral rights, and taxes. Sanctions should remain in place until either Crimea is returned to Ukraine or Ukraine is financially compensated (made whole again in legal terminology).



Russia is a petro-state that depends on the export of petroleum products. Previously, Moscow predicated its national budget on a global price of $100+ for a barrel of oil. Anything below this and cuts must be made. Because of Western sanctions, Moscow has not been able to borrow its way out of the oil slump. So Moscow has raided its two national "well being" funds to minimize economic damage. But at the recent rate of expenditure, these rainy-day funds will be bare by the end of 2017.

Another huge problem in Russia is corruption. It scorches everything. Russia east of the Urals (which constitutes most of the Russia landmass) is third world poor.

Prior to the USSR transferring Crimea to Ukrainian, how log was it Russian territory?
 

JANFU

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Simpleχity;1065766828 said:
Good. To underscore...

Crimea authorities ban Tatar governing body





Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2015 - Russia





Organization for Security and Co‑operation in Europe
Published on Apr 13, 2016
Why We Can Never Accept Russia's Illegal Attempt to Annex Crimea: OSCE Diplomats

[video=youtube;7NGacuFqano]http://www.youtube.com/watch?7NGacuFqano[/video]

The OSCE can change their minds. Depends upon how a deal is reached and what is in it.
We, those with a lick of sense realize how Putin works.
Look at present day Chechnya.
And in my opinion, he under Yeltsin, orchestrated the bombings in Moscow as a false flag to invade Chechnya.

Finally, We Know About the Moscow Bombings by Amy Knight | The New York Review of Books
 

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You are missing the point and cutting out what you do not like, but know is factual. If the government of Ukraine handled relations better with their own citizens with historical ties to Russia not a bit of this would have happened this way.

Quit pretending the government of Ukraine did everything on the level. It is bull****, and you know that.
The sour relationship between Kyiv and ethnic Russian nationalists in Crimea was never a secret. But in my experience living on the peninsula, no ethnicity was persecuted to warrant an invasion.

Even pro-Russia former Ukraine president Viktor Yanukovych (now living in Russia) states that Moscow was entirely wrong to invade/annex Crimea.

With its invasion, Russia violated numerous international treaties and mutual agreements with Ukraine:

■ United Nations Charter (1945)

■ On Transfer of Crimean Region from the RSFSR to the Ukrainian SSR (USSR Supreme Soviet Presidium - February/April 1954)

■ Helsinki Accords (1975)

■ 1977 Soviet Constitution (Brezhnev Constitution)

■ Declaration № 142-Н of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union (1991)

■ Belavezha Accords (Creation Agreement) (1991)

■ Alma-Ata Protocol (1991)

■ Joint Russo-Ukrainian Black Sea Fleet Agreement (1992)

■ Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances (1994)

■ The Partition Treaty on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet (1997)

■ Russian-Ukrainian Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership (1997) (Article 2 - Reaffirmed “the inviolability of the existing borders”)

■ Agreement between Ukraine and Russia on the Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine (Kharkiv Pact - 2010)
 

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JANFU

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Putin is looking for a fight, good for his economy and keeps his people busy watching that instead of see all the other problems, old tactic and it works.

Economy tanking, going to get worse, their oil production technology out of date, the Stans, Chechnya and areas are a hotbed of dissent- Islamic groups.
Foreign reserves dropping fast, no international loans, yeah, he is ready or near to making a deal.
 
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