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- May 18, 2019
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I am not skeptical of the basic climate science that man is causing most of the recent warming.
I am skeptical though of the accuracy of climate models as of now. I think results speak volumes. And since climate modeling deals with long time periods, we just don’t have enough successful samples. In fsct we don’t even really have one yet, if we consider about 50 years to be a minimal sample size of model prediction is success.
I would like to see at minimum 4 or 5 successful 50 year periods of reasonably accurate model predictive success to be confident Thst models have a handle on things.
The short term success of models so far is ok. But from past reading the error range was pretty wide. So that takes away from usefulness obviously.
I know they plug models in for the past and all, that just doesn’t give me confidence.
I am skeptical though of the accuracy of climate models as of now. I think results speak volumes. And since climate modeling deals with long time periods, we just don’t have enough successful samples. In fsct we don’t even really have one yet, if we consider about 50 years to be a minimal sample size of model prediction is success.
I would like to see at minimum 4 or 5 successful 50 year periods of reasonably accurate model predictive success to be confident Thst models have a handle on things.
The short term success of models so far is ok. But from past reading the error range was pretty wide. So that takes away from usefulness obviously.
I know they plug models in for the past and all, that just doesn’t give me confidence.