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Why China is so far from taking Taiwan

The chinese military is changing. Going from old outdated equipment to modern equipment.

It will use drones, missiles in the opening stage of any war. Heck i expect China has developed or will develop drones that will seek the engines of jets on the ground to go into before exploding. 300 g of explosives mission killing a 100 million dollar jet for a few months at least. Cell towers, radio towers etc would all be hit early on.

Of course China will not invade unless Taiwan declare formal independence, if it does that China will invade, and no anount of deterrence will stop it
Drones are still new in all militaries. The problem is over reliance and the tech industry becoming more powerful than the government as well as old school generals.

The biggest problem is that China is the attacker and it's an island nation. The enemy will be hiding on fortified beaches and cities. It will take a lot of airpower to dislodge.
 
The Taiwan Black Dragon 240mm heavy artillery coastal gun as used by US ground forces in Italy in WW2. The Black Dragon is positioned inside rugged mountains at strategic positions of the Taiwan Strait.
BigBigGun.jpg



Taiwan's defense strategy has always been predicated on withstanding the initial wave of CCP attacks by air, missiles and aircraft, now to include drones. Much of the Taiwan Air Force is inside mountain hollows and practiced to take off on roads and highways given all air bases will be hit hard by the CCP attacker.

The shoreline of Taiwan is short beaches and rugged mountains. There are only three possible landing beaches for PLA troops assuming they get across the Strait which is problematical at best. The Strait is mined to channel the attacking forces to the three "Dead Zones" at a point 40km off the three beaches where Taiwan will concentrate massive firepower to destroy the attacker. Invader is no longer the operative word -- attacker is the new mode.

The new Overall Defense Concept of 2018 mass produces offensive missiles that can strike Beijing, Shanghai and numerous centers and military command posts on the mainland. The ranges of the Taiwan offensive missiles are long, medium, short to include destroying an attack force the minute it pulls up its anchors. The final island defense against an attack force still in its ships is almost 100 fast attack torpedo boats and big 240mm artillery guns the US used in WW II.
 
Taiwan being a rather large Island with infrastructure they dare not damage makes invasion a lot trickier than it might seem.
The defenders have huge advantages and they have advanced US weaponry and sneaking up on them will be almost impossible as I'm fairly sure they have at least limited access to US spy satalites watching local airspace and the sea.

Any invasion attempt from China is going to endure huge losses even if they eventually gain control and all Taiwan has to do is hold out long enough for allies it has to start flooding the area with help and it'll be at best stalemate and at worst a huge loss for China.
 
China wants to take Taiwan without military force. It uses the carrot and stick approach to do so

Carrots.

In 2019 one in 10 working age Taiwanese were working in China.
A significant amount of Taiwanese exports go to China
A significant number of Chinese tourists go to Taiwan( not during Covid of course)
Having Taiwanese companies like Foxxcon have their main operations in China

Sticks
Sanctions on Taiwanese goods when it goes to far ( in Chinese opinion)
Flying jets in international airspace around Taiwan
Having a few hundred ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan

Biggest future factor supporting reunification

The US chips act. Taiwan main economic driver right now is their lead in chip manufacturing. The US and Europe are trying to bring chip manufacturing back home. That will harm Taiwan economically, leading Taiwan to become dependent on China.

China is paying Taiwanese chip engineers big money to help develop its own chip industry, it will not invade Taiwan over it. But will hit Taiwanese chip plants with missiles in case of a war, which would hurt the world economy.

Please recall China does not need to plan for something to occur in 2 years and see the results. It has the political stability to plan for 5 to 20 year's to achieve desired results. The US chip act could very well be the thing that drives Taiwan to reunify with China
Very good points, Lord Tammerlain. I especially did not think about the number of young people from Taiwan working on the mainland. Our company has several working for us. There are two in my own office. The current Spring Festival holiday season saw them going home at last, since they were stuck here the last 3 years of the lockdown, but they notified me today that they are returning.
 
China wants to take Taiwan without military force. It uses the carrot and stick approach to do so

Carrots.

In 2019 one in 10 working age Taiwanese were working in China.
A significant amount of Taiwanese exports go to China
A significant number of Chinese tourists go to Taiwan( not during Covid of course)
Having Taiwanese companies like Foxxcon have their main operations in China

Sticks
Sanctions on Taiwanese goods when it goes to far ( in Chinese opinion)
Flying jets in international airspace around Taiwan
Having a few hundred ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan

Biggest future factor supporting reunification

The US chips act. Taiwan main economic driver right now is their lead in chip manufacturing. The US and Europe are trying to bring chip manufacturing back home. That will harm Taiwan economically, leading Taiwan to become dependent on China.

China is paying Taiwanese chip engineers big money to help develop its own chip industry, it will not invade Taiwan over it. But will hit Taiwanese chip plants with missiles in case of a war, which would hurt the world economy.

Please recall China does not need to plan for something to occur in 2 years and see the results. It has the political stability to plan for 5 to 20 year's to achieve desired results. The US chip act could very well be the thing that drives Taiwan to reunify with China
You've been reading too many mainland fortune cookies.

And for too long too.

This is all I'm going to say to you Tammerlain cause no matter, you insist on going on forever.
 
Taiwan being a rather large Island with infrastructure they dare not damage makes invasion a lot trickier than it might seem.
The defenders have huge advantages and they have advanced US weaponry and sneaking up on them will be almost impossible as I'm fairly sure they have at least limited access to US spy satalites watching local airspace and the sea.

Any invasion attempt from China is going to endure huge losses even if they eventually gain control and all Taiwan has to do is hold out long enough for allies it has to start flooding the area with help and it'll be at best stalemate and at worst a huge loss for China.
Give China 20 years and that will change but as of now I agree
 
Give China 20 years and that will change but as of now I agree
As the late Yogi liked to say, nobody can predict the future because nobody knows what's going to happen.

You can't predict or forecast 20 years from now just as nobody can argue one thing or another about 20 years from now.

Your statement is useless. So bye cause I have no time for this desperate nonsense that's starting to appear.
 
As the late Yogi liked to say, nobody can predict the future because nobody knows what's going to happen.

You can't predict or forecast 20 years from now just as nobody can argue one thing or another about 20 years from now.

Your statement is useless. So bye cause I have no time for this desperate nonsense that's starting to appear.
Clearly you are uninformed about how China is building up its military as well as its economy. Clearly you are unaware of the demographics that support it.

You are dismissed as someone to ignorant of this discussion to have an unformed debate
 
Clearly you are uninformed about how China is building up its military as well as its economy. Clearly you are unaware of the demographics that support it.

You are dismissed as someone to ignorant of this discussion to have an unformed debate


Tangmo is very biased against China,

ESL schools a few years ago faced stricter government controls which caused a lot to shut down.

A lot of people ( both Chinese and non Chinsese) lost investments and or jobs in teaching English to Chiness. Probably made a lot of them upset. Other English teachers especially very patriotic ones from the US likely got upset at the progress and advancement they saw in China especially if they were in the Pearl River Delta area.
 
Tangmo is very biased against China,

ESL schools a few years ago faced stricter government controls which caused a lot to shut down.

A lot of people ( both Chinese and non Chinsese) lost investments and or jobs in teaching English to Chiness. Probably made a lot of them upset. Other English teachers especially very patriotic ones from the US likely got upset at the progress and advancement they saw in China especially if they were in the Pearl River Delta area.
China has 1.4 billion people....4 times as much as the US. When China fully develops a middle class the revenue they will raise will dwarf us. Its basic demographics and its 20 to 30 years away
 
Very good points, Lord Tammerlain. I especially did not think about the number of young people from Taiwan working on the mainland. Our company has several working for us. There are two in my own office. The current Spring Festival holiday season saw them going home at last, since they were stuck here the last 3 years of the lockdown, but they notified me today that they are returning.


China has spent to much on infrastructure over the last few decades to risk everything on an unneeded war. Far better to wait until the conditions allow for a generally peaceful reunification.

The US chips act is one thing China must be loving. It will devastate Taiwans economy making the reunification path easier
 
China has 1.4 billion people....4 times as much as the US. When China fully develops a middle class the revenue they will raise will dwarf us. Its basic demographics and its 20 to 30 years away
Yes i know, all they need to do is have the average GDP be that of Portugal, and its economy would be double that if the US. Certain regions of China have lifestyles equal to some Western European countries ( generally south east parts)
 
Clearly you are uninformed about how China is building up its military as well as its economy. Clearly you are unaware of the demographics that support it.

You are dismissed as someone to ignorant of this discussion to have an unformed debate
I lived and worked 10 years in China.

Returned to USA late in 2021.

Your attitude is a waste of my time.
 
The CCP Fanboyz at this thread are the hard core China is phantasmagorical.

It's so bad in the CCP's PRC now the Fanboyz have to talk about 20 years from now.

By that time China will be awesome!
 
Somebody is upset they got schooled. Lol
 
China has spent to much on infrastructure over the last few decades to risk everything on an unneeded war. Far better to wait until the conditions allow for a generally peaceful reunification.

The US chips act is one thing China must be loving. It will devastate Taiwans economy making the reunification path easier
Lord Tammerlain, should you have some time for interesting reading, I invite you to look into Madam Chiang Kai-shek, specifically her relationship to Wendell Willkie. Wendell Willkie was the Republican candidate against Roosevelt in 1940. Roosevelt appointed him his roving ambassador later on for places like China. During his time in China, he and Madam Chiang had a fling, which almost got him shot by her husband, the KMT leader. Madam Chiang had an extremely profound impact on the evolution of current affairs as we know it now on Taiwan. Being from one of the noble families of China, her line went back over 300 years. She moved to New York in the middle of the war with the Japanese to be near to Wendell Willkie, who she told, according to his friend, Gardner Cowles, the founder of Look magazine, together they could rule the world. He would control the West, while she controlled China. She would use all of her resources to fund his 1944 campaign against Roosevelt. Unfortunately, Wendell died before the next election. She truly was a gem, and even had the hots for General Joseph Stilwell, the commander of American forces in the China, India and Burma Theater of Operations, and who her husband loathed. Whenever "Vinegar" Joe would come around, she was determined to be there for a picture locking arms and smiling. Stilwell would have none of it. She was, as General Stilwell noted, in Barbara Tuchman's biography of his time in China, "The shell on that peanut." Peanut was the derogatory term Stilwell would use when referring to Chiang Kai-Shek. Stilwell added, Chiang did not care for fighting the Japanese, and wanted instead to squander resources given to him as aid to fight Mao and the communists. Now, what does all this have to do with Taiwan. Lots. When discussions later came up after the war about the battle for control of the country between the KMT and the communists, Stilwell and others were instrumental in influencing the discussion. Stilwell did not believe the US should take a side, actually believing that a China not in constant turmoil would be best. The end of that turmoil would be the communists, because Stilwell thought Chiang couldn't run a soup kitchen. State Department thinking would follow that line. After the KMT evacuated from its last stronghold in the city of Taizhou, which at that time was a small fishing village, I believe called, He He, and fled to Taiwan, Madam Chiang spent a lot of time in New York in the socialite scene there. More than her husband, she was the one that cultivated the slow development of the relationship that exists now with Taiwan. She was good. Educated in the US, she spoke fluent English with a slight southern accent, and was a good looking woman to her last day. The KMT still carries her slogan as its mantra in Taiwan, called the 3 Nots. "Not Reunification, Not Independence, Not War." I guess you could say, a modern day version of, "having your cake and eating it, too." She died in New York I believe in 2003.

People just think this issue popped up yesterday, when this all has a lot of history. And it sure is interesting, and a little erotic. Funny thing is, not a single mention about Stilwell anywhere in Taiwan. No monuments, markers, nothing. But in Chongqing (Chungking), the communist government has maintained his house, headquarters, vehicles and dress uniform as something of a shrine. General George Marshall, the Army Chief of Staff, is quoted as of saying he was the model of a general officer that all should follow. All that we are encountering today is the result of a slow reversal in what was set in motion decades ago by better men than we have leading our country today.
 
Lord Tammerlain, should you have some time for interesting reading, I invite you to look into Madam Chiang Kai-shek, specifically her relationship to Wendell Willkie. Wendell Willkie was the Republican candidate against Roosevelt in 1940. Roosevelt appointed him his roving ambassador later on for places like China. During his time in China, he and Madam Chiang had a fling, which almost got him shot by her husband, the KMT leader. Madam Chiang had an extremely profound impact on the evolution of current affairs as we know it now on Taiwan. Being from one of the noble families of China, her line went back over 300 years. She moved to New York in the middle of the war with the Japanese to be near to Wendell Willkie, who she told, according to his friend, Gardner Cowles, the founder of Look magazine, together they could rule the world. He would control the West, while she controlled China. She would use all of her resources to fund his 1944 campaign against Roosevelt. Unfortunately, Wendell died before the next election. She truly was a gem, and even had the hots for General Joseph Stilwell, the commander of American forces in the China, India and Burma Theater of Operations, and who her husband loathed. Whenever "Vinegar" Joe would come around, she was determined to be there for a picture locking arms and smiling. Stilwell would have none of it. She was, as General Stilwell noted, in Barbara Tuchman's biography of his time in China, "The shell on that peanut." Peanut was the derogatory term Stilwell would use when referring to Chiang Kai-Shek. Stilwell added, Chiang did not care for fighting the Japanese, and wanted instead to squander resources given to him as aid to fight Mao and the communists. Now, what does all this have to do with Taiwan. Lots. When discussions later came up after the war about the battle for control of the country between the KMT and the communists, Stilwell and others were instrumental in influencing the discussion. Stilwell did not believe the US should take a side, actually believing that a China not in constant turmoil would be best. The end of that turmoil would be the communists, because Stilwell thought Chiang couldn't run a soup kitchen. State Department thinking would follow that line. After the KMT evacuated from its last stronghold in the city of Taizhou, which at that time was a small fishing village, I believe called, He He, and fled to Taiwan, Madam Chiang spent a lot of time in New York in the socialite scene there. More than her husband, she was the one that cultivated the slow development of the relationship that exists now with Taiwan. She was good. Educated in the US, she spoke fluent English with a slight southern accent, and was a good looking woman to her last day. The KMT still carries her slogan as its mantra in Taiwan, called the 3 Nots. "Not Reunification, Not Independence, Not War." I guess you could say, a modern day version of, "having your cake and eating it, too." She died in New York I believe in 2003.

People just think this issue popped up yesterday, when this all has a lot of history. And it sure is interesting, and a little erotic. Funny thing is, not a single mention about Stilwell anywhere in Taiwan. No monuments, markers, nothing. But in Chongqing (Chungking), the communist government has maintained his house, headquarters, vehicles and dress uniform as something of a shrine. General George Marshall, the Army Chief of Staff, is quoted as of saying he was the model of a general officer that all should follow. All that we are encountering today is the result of a slow reversal in what was set in motion decades ago by better men than we have leading our country today.


Thanks i will do that
 
Tangmo is very biased against China,

ESL schools a few years ago faced stricter government controls which caused a lot to shut down.

A lot of people ( both Chinese and non Chinsese) lost investments and or jobs in teaching English to Chiness. Probably made a lot of them upset. Other English teachers especially very patriotic ones from the US likely got upset at the progress and advancement they saw in China especially if they were in the Pearl River Delta area.
What you don't know is that I left teaching English to include at a private university, and before that at a couple of private foreign language schools, to consult on trade with an industrial group in Guangdong (province), then for an owner who produced office supplies for Dollar Store, Staples, Office Depot among others and where I also taught English to office staff, then finally with a guy in Shenzhen who owned 5 factories that did electronic motors for export.

I retired fully in 2017 but got to keep my 10-year M Visa that my employer paid for (10K yuan) and did private tutoring only which you know to be lucrative. I never paid for my own first rate housing until I retired. What you missed is that private in-home tutoring was prohibited too although we continued to do that under the radar of the authorities.

When Covid hit we foreigners could not go to Hong Kong for the periodic Visa Stamp -- we had to go to the very nasty National Security Police instead to get stamped. And screwed. The security police made us keep producing bank statements of our worth to remain in China, Residence Permits, Work Permits, Permit Permits ha, all kind of documents to include handwritten on the spot statements of why we were in the CCP's PRC. We foreigners had to do these thingys each time. The goons security police changed me to a Retirement Visa which removed the 10-year approval to stay, which I figured rightly was ominous --I'd have to renew each year instead.

Early in 2021 the security police started detaining Americans on BS charges or expelling other Americans they just didn't want to see any more -- again, for BS reasons. That's when I had to leave with the excellent assistance of the US Embassy Citizens Services Section that, frankly, saved my arse from a dungeon. Many other Americans there were not so fortunate. It's all part of the dictatorship the Chinese have over there. And that you people around here worship and promote.

Don't get me wrong about my experience over the ten years cause I made many great friends wherever I went and stayed, all in the Pearl River Delta, yeah, which is the best part of China for the people because as Ye Olde Canton the folk are used to we foreign devils. Went to Hong Kong a lot where you and yours are delighted democracy was assassinated just recently.
 
Logistics.

And that there is the biggest problem China faces.

To put it simply, the PLAN is a paper tiger. They have a couple heavy cruisers that can carry aircraft and thinks they are "carriers". They have a navy which almost never performs fleet operations (and when they do it is for a month or less), and has never really done things that a navy at sea needs to do like UNREP. They simply lack the amphibious capability to invade Taiwan.

And to add a nail to the coffin, their airlift capability is even worse. Hell, the California National Guard alone has far more airlift capability than all of the Chinese armed forces combined.

Without sealift and airlift capability, their capability of taking Taiwan is almost nothing.

Add to that the experience of the PLAN, and it is less than nothing.

And for a final part, simply look at what is going on with the Russian economy today. In case nobody is aware, it has almost completely crashed.

They for some reason believed that Europe and other nations were so dependent upon their petroleum industry that they could not dare invoke sanctions upon Russia when they invaded Ukraine. That they would simply roll over and let Russia do whatever it wanted because they were Russia, and nobody could live without what they produced. Well, they were sure proven wrong there, and is now suffering for it.

And the funny thing is, people are acting the exact same way about China. "Oh no, we can't put in sanctions! We need what they sell!"

No, we don't. And I think they are finally becoming aware that most nations actually would sanction them, which would put their economy roughly back to what it was in the 1960s all over again.

In other words, about akin to the economies of North Korea, Cuba, and now Russia in 2023.
 
The KMT still carries her slogan as its mantra in Taiwan, called the 3 Nots. "Not Reunification, Not Independence, Not War."

It's actually the "3 noes". And this is what they really are:

No unification
No declaration of Independence,
No use of force.

What you are quoting is what former President Ma Ying-jeou states as his policy in 2007 when he was running for President. When somebody changes something so much from the original, it is no longer the same thing.

And the 3 Noes were made in response to pressure from China to force unification in 1979 called the "Three Links". That was establishing postal, commercial, and transportation links between the two nations in the hopes it would bring them closer together. The 3 noes were the response of Taiwan to that. In other words, that was the response of Taiwan to the attempt by China to bound their countries together through trade and commerce.
 
The KMT still carries her slogan as its mantra in Taiwan, called the 3 Nots. "Not Reunification, Not Independence, Not War." I guess you could say, a modern day version of, "having your cake and eating it, too."
The KMT is completely out of national power and largely discredited among the people of Taiwan. In 2018, two years after KMT former president and Beijing Hugger Ma Ying jeou left office a Taipei court ordered him jailed as guilty for leaking classified information during his 8 years in office.

China’s Xi Jinping and Taiwan’s Ma Ying-jeou Meet in Singapore​

Meeting is the first between leaders of the two sides since Taiwan and China split in 1949​


BN-LD638_1107ct_M_20151107023745.jpg

Nov. 8, 2015. Ma left office in the next year, 2016.


In 2016 the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party won the presidency for only the second time plus DPP won control of the parliament for the first time. Led by Pres. Tsai Ing-wen the DPP controlled parliament dissolved Taiwan's long standing claim over the mainland China. Now only Beijing claims the always fraudulent One China Two Systems that KMT accepted but that DPP has never accepted. And after the Boyz in Beijing assassinated democracy in Hong Kong, despite the identical promise of Two Systems, the One China shameless lie is dead. Taiwan will never submit to Beijing.

So Taiwan under the DPP and Pres. Tsai agree there is one China -- and that it is the mainland only. Taiwan likes a new name it wants to establish -- the Republic of Taiwan but that sovereign and independent development will have to wait a while longer to be declared formally and officially. Pres. Tsai won reelection by a landslide in 2020 to include DPP absolute control of the parliament. DPP founded in 1986 is long and well known as the independence party. It will fight smartly and effectively for this and repel the dictator tyrants of Beijing.

The DPP is well positioned indeed to repeat win both the presidency and parliament in 2024 when the voters number one concern about the office is the CCP DictatorTyrants in Beijing. While KMT experience in government continues to show up in local elections the party has elected its last president in the ex-con and turncoat Ma Ying-jeou.
 
And that there is the biggest problem China faces.

To put it simply, the PLAN is a paper tiger. They have a couple heavy cruisers that can carry aircraft and thinks they are "carriers". They have a navy which almost never performs fleet operations (and when they do it is for a month or less), and has never really done things that a navy at sea needs to do like UNREP. They simply lack the amphibious capability to invade Taiwan.

And to add a nail to the coffin, their airlift capability is even worse. Hell, the California National Guard alone has far more airlift capability than all of the Chinese armed forces combined.

Without sealift and airlift capability, their capability of taking Taiwan is almost nothing.

Add to that the experience of the PLAN, and it is less than nothing.

And for a final part, simply look at what is going on with the Russian economy today. In case nobody is aware, it has almost completely crashed.

They for some reason believed that Europe and other nations were so dependent upon their petroleum industry that they could not dare invoke sanctions upon Russia when they invaded Ukraine. That they would simply roll over and let Russia do whatever it wanted because they were Russia, and nobody could live without what they produced. Well, they were sure proven wrong there, and is now suffering for it.

And the funny thing is, people are acting the exact same way about China. "Oh no, we can't put in sanctions! We need what they sell!"

No, we don't. And I think they are finally becoming aware that most nations actually would sanction them, which would put their economy roughly back to what it was in the 1960s all over again.

In other words, about akin to the economies of North Korea, Cuba, and now Russia in 2023.
That is exactly why it will not be done that way. China will do this on its own terms in its own way. With so many problems existing in our country, and within our own military and intelligence services, it believes it just needs to wait. It believes it has the time. It knows it has the patience.
 
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