Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?

cpwill · May 24, 2011

Kandahar said:
Here's an exercise that I find useful for thinking about who the Republican nominee will be. Create the most realistic narrative you can for each candidate's path to the nomination, then read them and see which sound the most plausible. Here is my attempt:...

firstly: let me say that this was an impressive demonstration of a particularly good analytic technique - and one I intend to steal.

secondly: damn you, damn you sir for choosing to show it off this way, and sending me back to my alcohol in depression.

thirdly, I think you are overestimating the "establishment" model as it applies to Pawlenty. that is something that I see being a hard thing for Romney to shunt off, but one that will be much less difficult for others to avoid. Huntsman might face some due to his actual service in the Obama Administration - but his answer to that is airtight, and it is his positions that will get him in more trouble.

Pawlenty has an "establishment" issue - and one that can be dealt with, though perhaps it will require that the dealing be deft. Romney has an establishment identity.

Barbbtx · May 25, 2011

BDBoop said:
This could be a good time to check out what the rest of the media has to say. Maybe Fox is dropping the ball, but they're not the be-all and end-all.

I watch all news channels. When Cain is mentioned, they treat him like joke. I expected more from Fox. Oh well, Charles Krauthammer even called him an "entertainer"
and Rove said something insulting too. I forget what. Nope, he's not going to get support from the Republican elites, that's for sure. They are talking Romney, Pawlenty.

New positive intensity scores look good though.

Herman Cain Begins Race With High Positive Intensity

The aforementioned candidates who generate the strongest positive reactions -- Cain and Bachmann -- have relatively low name recognition, Cain at 33% and Bachmann at 55%. Although neither is usually included in the discussions of pundits and other observers as candidates likely to win the nomination, their strongly positive images suggest that they may have more impact on this election than might be supposed -- if they can sustain their high image scores while becoming better known. The impact of candidates who have passionate followers is potentially most evident in primary elections, where, as was learned in 2010, turnout among highly motivated Republican voters can make a significant difference.

Barbbtx · May 25, 2011

xpiher said:
Common Sense Solutions, his book, doesn't give any answers but talking points. What is there to peal back?

He does have plans and solutions on the economy that he has expressed in interviews. For example we know what he wants to do on taxes as soon as he takes office. We know he plans to spend the first two years educating us on the fair tax, getting our support, then implimenting it.
We know what he wants to do on our southern border and that he wants to empower the states to be able to protect themselves too. Not sue them for it.
I'm curious to know the solutions of the other candidates. What's Obama's plans for 2013 for example?

Crosscheck · May 25, 2011

Barbbtx said:
I watch all news channels. When Cain is mentioned, they treat him like joke. I expected more from Fox. Oh well, Charles Krauthammer even called him an "entertainer"
and Rove said something insulting too. I forget what. Nope, he's not going to get support from the Republican elites, that's for sure. They are talking Romney, Pawlenty.

New positive intensity scores look good though.

Herman Cain Begins Race With High Positive Intensity

Once you get treated as a joke like that your political career is over.

Even before John Edwards got caught with his hand in the cookie jar he became a joke over something stupid as his hairstyle. John Dean on the other hand had that screechy yelp on the microphone and that became his logo. The honorable James Stockdale got labeled a joke with the unfortunate statement "Who am I? Why am I here". Palin who probably earned it genuinely will forever be a joke too.
The only political figure to come back to life was Richard M Nixon.

Barbbtx · May 25, 2011

Dav said:
What about this guy?

Thaddeus McCotter weighing White House bid - Jonathan Martin - POLITICO.com

Eight years in Congress (including a leadership position), solidly conservative on most issues, voted against TARP, enough of an outsider to make his fellow Congresspeople uncomfortable with him. And he seems pretty smart, and funny to boot. Nobody knows who he is now (I just heard of him today), but that could change at any moment. He seems more exciting than the poor choices we have now. If he officially joins the race I'm keeping an eye on him.

I like him He's a regular on Red Eye.

Crosscheck · May 25, 2011

Barbbtx said:
I like him He's a regular on Red Eye

Wow, just like that you picked up the poms poms and left the Cain camp for another newby.

Next.

Andalublue · May 25, 2011

Barbbtx said:
I like him He's a regular on Red Eye.

Pretty useless rhetoric. He takes minutes to crack a lame-ass joke about Led Zep. 'The Dems will shut down govt, in order to spend more of your money'...? Where's the logic in that statement? He seems to be all slogan, no content. Where's the beef? "It is a choice between bankruptcy and solvency, and the Republican party stands for solvency". Straight in at No.1 on the Fatuous Top 40, hackish remarks chart. With a bullet.

haymarket · May 25, 2011

As someone who has firsthand experience with Congressman McCotter, being his constituent, I would simply offer five observations about this:
1- he is wrong on almost every key issue before the American people and were he my next door neighbor he would not get my vote
2- he provides great constituent service. A year ago we took my
10 year old grandson to Washington DC for a long weekend. (btw- he is a chip off the old block as we gave him a choice between Disney World in Orlando and DC and he picked Washington). When we arrived at the Capitol building all the passes for tours were gone for the day. I called his office and they said to come right over. Someone from his office gave us a private 2 hour tour and we saw much more than the regular capitol tour. The young man was terrific and I really put him through his paces being a former government and history teacher.
3- McCotter is said to be doing this partly because Michigan republican leaders have no real favorite in the race and they hope that they can turn back the clock and make Tmc a favorite son, win the primary here and become a power in a possibly brokered convention.
4- McCotter is NOT a good campaigner. In 2008 he ran against a no name opponent who was outspent badly and TM barely squeaked by with just 51% of the vote.
5- To put it in blunt terms- in this age of TV and media where a Kennedy had an advantage in looks against a Nixon, TM will not make anyone forget about Brad Pitt. I know that sounds terrible- but its true just the same.

So don't go getting excited about this.

Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?