Which is a bigger challenge for the Trump 2024 campaign ...

[The Old Soul]

As long as its only partisan candidates dominating ballots, expect the worst rather than the best to rise to the top.

 

[Chomsky]

I don’t think, he’ll run. Over here on the right there’s a lot of discussion of moving along with Trumpism but eschewing Trump. I doubt they’ll find a typical politician that’ll have the balls to stand up like Trump did; far too much “good ol’ boys club”

IMO, the Repubs are in a bad place nationally. Trump can destroy them individually, so they have to kiss-up to him as a matter of individual survival. Yet, he lost all three national elected institutions for them - House, Senate, Presidency. Trump may assist them in the House in '22, but his negative effects on the Presidency are still likely present.

This leaves the Republicans, in national Presidential terms, in a "Can't win with him - Can't win without him" scenario.

But yeah, I think you present a reasonable path forward. I suspect it's possible Trump might not run again, due to not wanting to face the embarrassment of another national loss,. But, I will not try to predict him.

However, Trumpism is definitely here to stay. It does seem to make sense to run a more palatable candidate on Trump platform. But, will Trump accept it? He now, as we saw during his post election defeat Presidency, has seemingly become more radical. Just yesterday, he pushed his support to Marjorie Taylor Greene, and her radical Q Anon and other conspiracies. So, he currently displays no behaviour exhibiting acceptance of moderation. In fact, I see the opposite. I think he will still likely be big trouble for the GOP.

 

[Chomsky]

We are likely going to see between 55 and 60 Senators vote to convict him in the Senate. I don't really see that as much of a win.

Agreed. It may even simply end-up as a censure, too. Though I think many GOP would prefer an acquittal, and that's where this is likely going.

 

[MrWonka]

... having the last set of headlines from his Presidency be the storming of the Capitol or his acquittal by the Senate?

I would say it's the likelihood that regardless of what the Senate does he will almost certainly be in prison.

 

[gbg3]

What do you think the GOP is thinking? McCarthy met Trump in Florida today.

Yep, they're getting very busy thinking about 2022. There is many an article today about this meeting, the Liz Cheney/Gaetz situation, a new Morning Consult poll about Republican Trump support heading back up since earlier in the month (now over 80% again), etc. I've no idea what Trump's plans are in terms of his consideration of running himself but early indications are he will be very active in working to bring his supporters with him in generating a hopefully new and improved Republican party, of which he'll be highly involved. No new Patriot party, no Trump/Melania divorce, and all the other Dem dreams. Instead, a still very popular Donald Trump working very hard to further the great changes and strides he began. I rather loved all the reading I did this morning. 2022 is underway!
I expected that might happen. I was quite certain the GOP wouldn't waste time swimming in crazed and time wasting Biden hate including silly impeachments and such, as Dems did for 4+ years (and are still doing, lol). I figured the GOP would rather quickly look ahead and it appears they are beginning that in earnest in the very same month as the Biden inauguration.
Puppet Biden is already very busy creating his own spectacle and doing his own damage. Republicans can just let the Biden show occur while they get very busy on 2022.

 

[Perotista]

... having the last set of headlines from his Presidency be the storming of the Capitol or his acquittal by the Senate?

Neither. All of that will be ancient history. What Trump or any other GOP nominee will have to do is win independents back to them which Trump had lost early in his presidency. 2024 as well as 2022 will depend on what Biden and the Democratic controlled congress do or don't do. The Democrats have absolute power as a result of the Georgia senate runoffs. How will the Democrats utilize that power. Will they proceed with an agenda to just make their base happy and perhaps anger independents against them? Or will they proceed with a more America as a whole agenda which will satisfy and keep independents on board with them.

As of 17 Dec 2020, Democrats made up 31% of the total electorate, independents 41%. The Democratic Party is still the larger party of the two major parties, hence a good advantage over the GOP. But if they anger independents, another 2010 will happen in 2022 regardless of the size or affiliation difference. I highly doubt Trump will be an option for 2024, but one never knows. What will make the difference is what issues, events and happenings are hot at the time of the election. Not something that happened 2 or 4 years earlier. The prospect of a recession or even a depression between now and then is very real considering the amount of money we're printing without the revenue or anything else to back it up. That would doom any Democrat and very well could lead to Trump's return. Even without that, inflation from all this newly printed money and the rising national debt beyond the GDP is another possibility. Another stock market crash is another possibility which many financial experts expect to happen fairly soon.

Future elections all depends on what happens in the future, what is hot in the future and who independents are either angry with or happy with. Not something from the past. Any political realist would know this.

 

[gbg3]

They all act like they’re scared of him, but he’s not president anymore.

They are simply just recognizing or finally facing the fact that Trump and Trump ideas have and will continue to have a tremendous amount of support. Trump voters love the Trump non-swamp, independent, America first, MAGA approach. Some of the old school GOP thought Trump support would drop off a cliff when he left office. But, that hasn't happened and the more Dems work to censor and such, the more Trump is missed.
Then, in comes Biden and starts immediately destroying all the good stuff, behaving as far from a moderate as humanly possible - and those Trump years look better and better! Biden and the corresponding and related massive censorship are a very bad look to freedom loving Americans.

 

[Antiwar]

I agree.

Trump brought to the fore all the racist, sexist, misogynistic, intolerant authoritarian characteristics of the Socialist Left ...

.sdrawkcaB

 

[Cardinal]

"Biden admin excellence already reconstructing, rehabilitating and reimagining"
Is that what left now calls the unforced error of putting 11,000 people out of work (or more)?

​

Fact check: How many jobs lost on Keystone pipeline after ...​

https://www.statesman.com/story/new...executive-order-cancel-fact-check/6673822002/​

A Facebook post says that Biden's executive order revoking the Keystone XL pipeline "is destroying 11,000 jobs." That number is an estimate, and the claim lacks context about the longevity of...​

​

Is that what left now calls the unforced error of eliminating 1.3M jobs, and countless small businesses (50% of the employment)?

​

Minimum wage bill could eliminate 1.3 million jobs, CBO ...​

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/08/minimum-wage-bill-eliminate-13m-jobs-cbo-says-1400531​

Jul 8, 2019 Minimum wage bill could eliminate 1.3 million jobs, CBO says Democrats' signature policy proposal to raise the federal minimum wage would cost roughly 1.3 million jobs nationwide, even as it boosts...​

​

I think the left needs to work on their math and economics skills and knowledge.

When in reality:

Markets Work, Government Doesn’t

Nimble private enterprise has risen to the pandemic challenge. Officialdom has not.

www.hoover.org

I’m sure you say the same thing about people losing their jobs when Planned Parenthoods are shut down.

 

[Cope]

I don't intend to support Trump's re-election. He will be too old and too "hated" to do the job even if he were to succeed in 2025.

I prefer someone like Dan Crenshaw, and even Tulsi Gabbard, who are relatively young and pretty straightforward in their love of American Exceptionalism.

I'd go for a Booker and Yang campaign. They both appealed to me during the debates.

 

[braindrain]

... having the last set of headlines from his Presidency be the storming of the Capitol or his acquittal by the Senate?

The turd trump has zero chance to ever become president again. And for many many very good reasons.

 

[Eriech]

An incumbent this presidential will be his biggest hurdle

 

[gbg3]

I dunno, but it's been estimated that he has quite a bit of sway over around 1/3 of the GOP voter base. The math would appear to say that without those voters, GOP falls to like 3rd place.

Looking at the FBI documents that have been declassified WRT the Russian Collusion hoax, establishment DC really did screw him over with the dirtiest of political tricks in history.

Here is some new and I think very interesting data on Trump sway. I mentioned this poll in a comment a few minutes ago. Here is a link to the poll (which includes some very interesting data about GOP women/Trump support increases too). Here is one chart taken from the article, but I thought the whole article was well worth a read.

Senate Republicans Signal Acquittal for Trump as His Standing Improves Among GOP Voters - Morning Consult

 

[Dayton3]

Why does anyone think Donald Trump is the least bit interested in running for president in 2024?

He never wanted to be president in the first place.

 

[ataraxia]

Probably neither. His voters know that’s all bullsnit and lies.

Yes, they go for the truth, like Obama's secret birth certificate.

 

[gbg3]

2024 as well as 2022 will depend on what Biden and the Democratic controlled congress do or don't do. The Democrats have absolute power as a result of the Georgia senate runoffs. How will the Democrats utilize that power. Will they proceed with an agenda to just make their base happy and perhaps anger independents against them? Or will they proceed with a more America as a whole agenda which will satisfy and keep independents on board with them.

That's an excellent question. We'll see how it goes but the first week offers some clues (certainly surprising to me). We'll see if Biden stays on the course he's starting or pulls back.

 

[j brown's body]

Eugene Debs ran for president from prison but he only got a million votes. While that, in and of itself is impressive, especially for a socialist, Trump would surely get more. But unless GOP state leaders get cracking on increasing their supression of the vote, he probably would not get enough to ensure victory.

So much corruption, but so much work left to do.

 

[new member]

The turd trump has zero chance to ever become president again. And for many many very good reasons.

I think he will be in the rest home by then. It would be good to know that justice wins out and he went to prison but I think he will most likely be spared that. The rest home is looking more likely.

 

[NatMorton]

I would say it's the likelihood that regardless of what the Senate does he will almost certainly be in prison.

Unless new facts come to light, there’s very little chance of that.

 

[Robertinfremont]

I like his chances. Who's he going to be running against? Probably Kamala or somebody worse. It's going to be a cakewalk for Trump.

Biden has already pissed off a lot of Americans.

 

[NatMorton]

Biden has already pissed off a lot of Americans.

I think it is impossible to be President of the United States and not piss off at least a third of a country.

 

[gbg3]

I prefer someone like Dan Crenshaw, and even Tulsi Gabbard, who are relatively young and pretty straightforward in their love of American Exceptionalism.

IMO, Tulsi is most definitely gaining a ton of interest right now (including mine). Her stance and words on the current censorship have been excellent.

 

[switt]

Four years of Biden/Harris idiocy will generate lots of Trumpers.

Or perhaps conservatives, hopefully not Trumpsters. Yes, there is a difference.

 

[calamity]

... having the last set of headlines from his Presidency be the storming of the Capitol or his acquittal by the Senate?

Trump's biggest challenge will be staying alive four more years. That dude is in terrible health.

 

[eohrnberger]

Here is some new and I think very interesting data on Trump sway. I mentioned this poll in a comment a few minutes ago. Here is a link to the poll (which includes some very interesting data about GOP women/Trump support increases too). Here is one chart taken from the article, but I thought the whole article was well worth a read.

Senate Republicans Signal Acquittal for Trump as His Standing Improves Among GOP Voters - Morning Consult

View attachment 67315840

Reaction to Biden's torrent of Leftist, 'America and Americans Last' ECs perhaps?