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We find no convincing evidence ....

Is it that bad?

9 grandchildren afterall have 8 grandparents, right?

Technically, my wife had 2 parents, and I had 2 parents. That's 4 grandparents.

However, your figure doesn't count that my wife has siblings, and I have siblings (brothers and sisters). If we count all of them, and their grand kids = all stemming from the same number of grandparents, = then the total number of new people on earth grows much more than seven fold. It's actually an environmental nightmare.
 
Constant population growth and an economy based on growth is not sustainable over the long run. I didn't always want to acknowledge that truth myself, but some years ago I looked at a family holiday photo, and realized my wife and I are responsible for a seven fold growth rate in less than 40 years. 5 kids, and now 9 grand children. I love my family, but our carbon footprint is huge. 16 vehicles sitting in heated and air conditioned garages. Probably 30 television sets total. Thing is, none of my grown kids plan to have anywhere near 5 kids each, but even if they all have three each the population goes up.

They say human population will level out at 10-11 BILLION people. I doubt that. We'll never get to that number.

Prior to the industrial age, people had large families more out of necessity. Those times are long gone.
Unless something happens, a major catastrophe or war, greatly reducing human population that number will occur or be exceeded within the next 30-35 years. I won't be around, but if you're young enough to be here 30-35 years from now, correct me if I was wrong.
 
With or without a trade deficit, automation will be the leading cause of job displacement. Legal immigration would be a smart move if those were skilled immigrants, especially in areas where we have a shortage of skilled workers. That is NOT engineering, btw. (Except for petroleum engineering and computer engineering). I'm content to leave low paying, labor intensive jobs overseas. I'm content to leave the big polluting energy wasting industries overseas.

TurtleDude is correct to caution that the least competent are having too many kids. This will be a bigger problem down the road. It is the cause of class warfare, and the class divisions will get worse as young people marry later in life and start families later. In the old days, a couple married younger, and maybe the man went to college but the wife stayed home. So maybe you had one really smart person married to a person of average intelligence. They breed kids of average intelligence or slightly above. Today it's more likely, with people marrying after getting an education and into their careers, that two really smart people will get together, and just as likely that two not so smart people will get together. The intelligence difference, and the education emphasis, will be huge. And guess which couple will have most of the kids?

It is already the leading cause of class warfare in my opinion.

With more and more have-nots, there is already enough of them to vote in polititions who take away the "have's" money.
 
Technically, my wife had 2 parents, and I had 2 parents. That's 4 grandparents.

However, your figure doesn't count that my wife has siblings, and I have siblings (brothers and sisters). If we count all of them, and their grand kids = all stemming from the same number of grandparents, = then the total number of new people on earth grows much more than seven fold. It's actually an environmental nightmare.

You have to remember that just with you and your wife, there are four grandparents for a grandchild. Then their is the grandchld's other parent where he/she has four more grand parents.
 
You have to remember that just with you and your wife, there are four grandparents for a grandchild. Then their is the grandchld's other parent where he/she has four more grand parents.

You're right, but I was mainly talking about my wife and myself direct lineage and how many people were produced from that. No matter how you look at it, population increases like we've seen since the "Age of Oil" made these increases possible, and are not compatible with a healthy environment.
 
Thats all right. No need to worry about population growth. We are just going to kill ourselves off faster. US life expectancy has already started to turn down again. We are going to pollute ourselves to death in several different ways including opioid use, respiratory problems related to the air we breath, issues with the foul water many citizens have to bath in and drink, the crap we eat, It just goes on and on.
 
I see that frequently stated as if our lives are dependent on keeping our population growing. Fewer people would produce fewer problems to solve, and greater opportunity for everyone to become productively involved.

Black bold:

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Technically, my wife had 2 parents, and I had 2 parents. That's 4 grandparents.

However, your figure doesn't count that my wife has siblings, and I have siblings (brothers and sisters). If we count all of them, and their grand kids = all stemming from the same number of grandparents, = then the total number of new people on earth grows much more than seven fold. It's actually an environmental nightmare.

You have to remember that just with you and your wife, there are four grandparents for a grandchild. Then their is the grandchld's other parent where he/she has four more grand parents.

Red:
What? A child, any child, has, at most, four and only four grandparents. One might obtain "pseudo-grandparents" due to divorces, remarriages, etc., but those individuals would be "step grandparents," not grandparents, and not "four more" grandparents. Also, one's grandparents have parents, thus giving a child great grandparents, that doesn't give the child more grandparents; it gives the child a set of great grandparents.

family-tree-template-01.jpg

Have you in mind the exceptional circumstance whereby a woman had sex in very close succession with two men and a sperm from each man fertilized separate eggs that were also available? (fraternal rather than identical twins) Even if you do, each twin still has only four grandparents, each twin's grandparents being different individuals.
 
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Red:
What? A child, any child, has, at most, four and only four grandparents. One might obtain "pseudo-grandparents" due to divorces, remarriages, etc., but those individuals would be "step grandparents," not grandparents, and not "four more" grandparents. Also, one's grandparents have parents, thus giving a child great grandparents, that doesn't give the child more grandparents; it gives the child a set of great grandparents.

family-tree-template-01.jpg

Have you in mind the exceptional circumstance whereby a woman had sex in very close succession with two men and a sperm from each man fertilized separate eggs that were also available? (fraternal rather than identical twins) Even if you do, each twin still has only four grandparents, each twin's grandparents being different individuals.

I was wondering when someone would notice.
 
With or without a trade deficit, automation will be the leading cause of job displacement. Legal immigration would be a smart move if those were skilled immigrants, especially in areas where we have a shortage of skilled workers. That is NOT engineering, btw. (Except for petroleum engineering and computer engineering). I'm content to leave low paying, labor intensive jobs overseas. I'm content to leave the big polluting energy wasting industries overseas.

I have made this point before but worth making it again. The conflicting narratives from the New Right, the Trump Right (WHATEVER) boggles the mind. Their "big" argument or at least one of them appears to be to draw back from our world leadership role or what is left of it after just two years of Trump, whine about this and that, put a Big Wall at our southern border and sit behind it content that we have solved our problems.

I have finally seen some public narrative regarding the immediate issues with living in the fantasy that retrenching from a world leadership role and relying on the Big Wall right on the border has a ghost of a chance of succeeding over time. Putting all your eggs in the one basket of physically defending your immediate border is laughably absurd just based on history, never mind logic.

We need to go back to Central America only this time without the regime change initiatives that constantly described our foreign aid efforts there. The best way to stem the tide of Central Americans at our southern border is to give them reasons to stay put! The idea that bringing low value, manufacturing jobs back to the US is even the beginnings of a solution to our own employment issues is laughable at best.

The combination of automation and technology creates such a compelling set of dynamics precisely because we tend to create the fantasy that we will continue to pay high value job wages for relatively low value work just because "Its 'merica man and it owes me". Wrong! You spur more automation and technology inroads into human labor when you insist on getting paid high value wages for relatively low value work. Nobody is going to pay big money to somebody in this country simply because he knows how to operate an air wrench. The ability to operate an air wrench no longer represents high value work though it did at one time in this country.

Push those jobs to labor forces that would appreciate them and would appreciate the wages they would generate. The fly in my particular ointment is that we had 30 years, literally two generations of Americans to retrain labor forces and retool our education system so that it would produce what we needed for a 21st Century "skilled labor force" as opposed to a 20th Century skilled labor force and we did a grand total of NOTHING! However, pushing low value work to countries and people that would appreciate them for which they represent a step up as opposed to a step down while actually creating systems that give Americans the opportunity to fill the needs of a 21st Century skilled labor force STILL makes more sense even 30 years after we should have been invested in such a process than this constant yammering about some Big Stupid Wall and bringing back manufacturing jobs that WILL be automated out of existence in this country within half a generation of Americans. It utterly ignores the value of having the technology base coupled with a huge domestic market across almost all product and services sectors right here in the USA.

Put in simplistic terms, we are not being out-innovated by our global economic adversaries. We are being outthought and outworked! That is why the Chinese are so dedicated to forcing technology exchanges for gaining access to their low cost labor pool combined with outright IP theft. Once they have the technology they simply outthink us and outwork us to implementation. That has to stop and I mean NOW. That is in part one of the reasons why we have to get Donald Duck and his idiot crew out of DC, out of government, out of the decision making process that forces us into these 19th and 20th century and in some cases 17th century solutions to a 21st century set of dynamics and issues. The entire US of A is turning into Wilber Ross in the implementation and use of our real assets! Having Ross, Navarro, Kudlow in any role regarding a 21 century economy is the equivalent of making Rudy Giuliani your "cyber expert" which of course, Donald Duck has also done!
 
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jnug; I have made this point before but worth making it again. The conflicting narratives from the New Right, the Trump Right (WHATEVER) boggles the mind.



I agree with some of what you say, and I disagree with some of what you say. At least you've put some thought into it, and haven't degenerated to ad hominen attacks. Maybe we can keep it that way.

I't easy to be the "world's leader" when you're generous with foreign aid, sign trade deals and environmental treaties that favor others, use your military to both protect them and do their fighting for them, and ignore the devastation of working class American families as a result of those policies. Donald Trump hasn't "disengaged" with the world, he has simply put the needs of Americans first. That's certainly a different kind of leadership than we've had over the past couple of decades. All countries put the needs of their citizens first, except the USA. Trump has insisted that treaties benefit both sides equally; which is a win-win for both. A welcome change IMO. Coming out of WWll I could see where it was advisable to give countries devastated by war and the newly emerging countries trade agreements advantageous to them and to become the world's policemen, but those days are gone. Most of the world has progressed to the point that they can be treated as equal partners. As an example; NATO needs to pay it's way. Our trade relationship with China should include equal access to their markets, their protection of IP and copyright, and acceptance of product liability. (Remember that horrible Chinese drywall; the companies in China that made it couldn't be sued). Trump is moving the conversation in the right direction.

We need to get illegal immigration under control. I understand why it's so difficult. Democrats know that an aging population gets more conservative as it ages, and businessmen know a huge labor shortage as a result of enforcing immigration laws means higher wages across the board. If you've ever watched the TV show Dirty Jobs, it should be obvious that Americans will do ANY job, but not for $7.50 per hour. But you're right; there are fewer and fewer unskilled jobs in the economy. All the more reason to curtail illegal immigration; we don't need any more unskilled workers. We've got enough home grown unskilled workers to fill the jobs, we just have to pay them more to get them to do that work. If we had to depend on home grown unskilled workers the labor shortage would force wages up, we wouldn't even be talking about a mandatory minimum wage.

Training and re-training the labor force isn't as easy a solution as it sounds. We will never get to a 90% technically literate labor force. Some countries might. Technical workers need a high IQ in order to master the training. One in 10 Americans has an IQ under 83. One in 50 boys now have Autism. Many more have ADHD. Almost 1/3rd of Chicago school children have special needs. We aren't moving in the right direction. I was involved in re-training GM workers who took the "buyout" and free re-training back around 2008. Over half failed to complete HVAC technician training. When you haven't had to think and problem solve on your job for 10 or 15 years it's difficult to start learning technical stuff. Like any ability; use it or lose it. They didn't last long on a hot building roof in July. Working at the GM plant wasn't slow, but it wasn't really fast paced, either. And most of the plants are air conditioned. You really think you're going to re-train all those coal miners for highly technical jobs? The fact is, about 1/3rd of Americans do best when "working with their hands". That's why we need those manufacturing jobs, truck driving jobs, and craft jobs. And it's not because they're stupid, many of them are smart enough, they just aren't suited to technical work.

Our "economic adversaries" haven't "out thought and out worked " us. They just haven't had to face this reality yet. They picked off the low hanging fruit; textiles, metal and plastics casting, assembly work, etc. 90% of the jobs that have gone off shore are labor intensive unskilled and semi skilled jobs. However, they can get away with paying much less, don't have to recognize labor rights (unions), worker safety (OSHA), or respect the environment (EPA). They have low corporate taxes, ignore copyright, and have no product liability lawsuits to worry about. Great deal if you can get it. Our adversaries are now trying to capture higher "value added" industries, like aircraft construction; and they are having the same problems we have getting highly technical workers.

The real problem with globalism is that corporations are by nature multinational, governments are not. Corporations really run globalism, and therefore the globe. Governments are secondary, and local. Governments are now the tools of the globalists. Be careful what you wish for.
 
If the activities of 7 billion people is warming the Earths climate then there is nothing we can do to stop it. So rather than dream up ways to control human behavior, drop your despotic tendencies and put on some sun screen.

If we accept as fact that people are the primary cause, then how might we go about gradually reducing the world population? Maybe an additional tax instead of a deduction?

@0930 11 December 2018 - 7,669,327,995 world population
@1020 11 December 2018 - 7,669,335,765 world population, a 7,770 population increase, about 155 per minute
 
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