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[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

How will Brexit go?

  • The EU will continue to grow but will change to address the feelings that drove Brexit.

    Votes: 13 11.4%

  • The EU will continue to grow but will not address the feelings that drove Brexit

    Votes: 16 14.0%

  • The EU will see more countries pulling out after we leave.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • The UK will break up as a consequence of Brexit.

    Votes: 26 22.8%

  • The UK will still hold after all is done and dusted.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • There’ll be a second Brexit related referendum. (Independence / Brexit etc)

    Votes: 22 19.3%

  • We’ll end up with soft Brexit and end up staying within EFTA.

    Votes: 18 15.8%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit, a disaster ending with WTO rules.

    Votes: 29 25.4%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit which will be a success, even under WTO rules

    Votes: 18 15.8%
  • Total voters
    114
Rich2018 said:
The UK would be able to negotiate a free trade deal with the EU following Brexit

If you doubt this, tell me where it says this isn't true.
Click to expand...

You don't get to set parameters of how I will answer, especially when your comment is about how little you know on the subject. A free trade deal is a two way dealing that the two parties have yet to agree.

Rich2018 said:
Wrong

A country, like the USA, can raise tariffs against one particular country (eg China as recently happend).
Click to expand...

I said earlier - read the thread back. US tariffs on China and vice versa have been approved by the WTO. The first in place are US tariffs and Chinese tariffs will happen sometime soon once the WTO follows through on a November finding.

You are telling us nothing new here.
 
Rich2018 said:
Wrong

A country, like the USA, can raise tariffs against one particular country (eg China as recently happend).
Click to expand...
1) The US and China already have schedules. UK has not. Learn about these first.

2) The US is the US and has broken WTO rules before, as has the EU. Large economies can do that without suffering to many consequences. The UK is a relatively small economy with little to no protection so it cant bully the big or similar size economies that it trades the most with.

3) Technically the US are using anti dumping/competitive rules within the WTO to to raise tariffs, but in reality they are abusing the system and breaking treaties because they are the US and can do that with impunity...and Americans wonder why most of the world has issues with the US...

4) Under WTO rules you have to apply the same standard tariffs on all members and can only put in special tariffs and quotas when you have a schedule with every country...which the UK does not and is no where near in having. This will take years if not decades.

This means yes the UK can tariff free import cars from the EU but that also means tariff free cars from China, Japan and South Korea..good luck on that!

5) The EU are, like all countries, mandated to throw 10% tariff on cars made in the UK, because that is the tariff the WTO mandates unless a schedule has been negotiated to lower the tariff. Suddenly the biggest market for the UK car manufacturers is getting more expensive, so why not move production there?

There is a reason only one nation trades under basic WTO rules....

Sent from my Honor 8X
 
Rich2018 said:
The UK would be able to negotiate a free trade deal with the EU following Brexit

If you doubt this, tell me where it says this isn't true.
Click to expand...
And would the UK be a strong or weak negotiating partner?

Sent from my Honor 8X
 
PeteEU said:
1) The US and China already have schedules. UK has not. Learn about these first.

2) The US is the US and has broken WTO rules before, as has the EU. Large economies can do that without suffering to many consequences. The UK is a relatively small economy with little to no protection so it cant bully the big or similar size economies that it trades the most with.

3) Technically the US are using anti dumping/competitive rules within the WTO to to raise tariffs, but in reality they are abusing the system and breaking treaties because they are the US and can do that with impunity...and Americans wonder why most of the world has issues with the US...

4) Under WTO rules you have to apply the same standard tariffs on all members and can only put in special tariffs and quotas when you have a schedule with every country...which the UK does not and is no where near in having. This will take years if not decades.

This means yes the UK can tariff free import cars from the EU but that also means tariff free cars from China, Japan and South Korea..good luck on that!

5) The EU are, like all countries, mandated to throw 10% tariff on cars made in the UK, because that is the tariff the WTO mandates unless a schedule has been negotiated to lower the tariff. Suddenly the biggest market for the UK car manufacturers is getting more expensive, so why not move production there?

There is a reason only one nation trades under basic WTO rules....

Sent from my Honor 8X
Click to expand...

PeteEU said:
And would the UK be a strong or weak negotiating partner?

Sent from my Honor 8X
Click to expand...

It is very likely that the US will offer the UK extraordinarily generous terms.
 
Jack Hays said:
If Trump, to support BoJo and flip the bird to the Euros.
If post-Trump, to refurbish the special relationship.
Click to expand...

Trump isn't exactly known for being able to pass up a chance to put the boot in when someone is down.

No honor among thieves, etc.

In any case, even with the best of intentions, the UK winds up essentially being a client state.
 
Hamish Howl said:
Trump isn't exactly known for being able to pass up a chance to put the boot in when someone is down.

No honor among thieves, etc.

In any case, even with the best of intentions, the UK winds up essentially being a client state.
Click to expand...

Churchill once said the British crown should have transferred to North America and made Britain a province.
 
PeteEU said:
And would the UK be a strong or weak negotiating partner?

Sent from my Honor 8X
Click to expand...

By common consent amongst political observers, Boris' negotiating position significantly strengthened following his election win, with an 80 seat majority, last month.
 
Infinite Chaos said:
You don't get to set parameters of how I will answer, especially when your comment is about how little you know on the subject. A free trade deal is a two way dealing that the two parties have yet to agree....
Click to expand...

No you can continue to dodge any direct questions

It's true that a free trade deal has not been negotiated yet but the question was, what is stopping one ?

Your parameters have just been set....but by all means continue to dodge questions you can't answer.



I said earlier - read the thread back. US tariffs on China and vice versa have been approved by the WTO....
Click to expand...

Great

So the WTO does allow two countries to agree their own trade deal.


You are telling us nothing new here.
Click to expand...


I know, what's surprising perhaps is that some posters doubt it.
 
Rich2018 said:
He did ?


When was that ?


Because he also suggested political union with France in 1940.
Click to expand...

I believe it's in his History of the English Speaking Peoples but it's not machine searchable so I can't find it right now.
His suggestion about France was a last ditch effort to keep them from surrendering to Germany.
 
Jack Hays said:
It is very likely that the US will offer the UK extraordinarily generous terms.
Click to expand...
Why on earth would the US do that? Putting UK business ahead of American?

Sent from my Honor 8X
 
Rich2018 said:
By common consent amongst political observers, Boris' negotiating position significantly strengthened following his election win, with an 80 seat majority, last month.
Click to expand...
Lol what on earth does Boris majority have to do with hia negotiating strength with the EU?

Sent from my Honor 8X
 
Jack Hays said:
Generous terms for the UK would be good for US business. It's not a zero-sum game.
Click to expand...
So you are saying for example that the US will allow UK made cars in tariff free and scrap the protectionist standards? And do it without compensation?

Sent from my Honor 8X
 
PeteEU said:
So you are saying for example that the US will allow UK made cars in tariff free and scrap the protectionist standards? And do it without compensation?

Sent from my Honor 8X
Click to expand...

I said generous. I don't make specific predictions.
 
Rich2018 said:
No you can continue to dodge any direct questions

It's true that a free trade deal has not been negotiated yet but the question was, what is stopping one ?

Your parameters have just been set....but by all means continue to dodge questions you can't answer.





Great

So the WTO does allow two countries to agree their own trade deal.





I know, what's surprising perhaps is that some posters doubt it.
Click to expand...

Your original premise was that there would be no tariffs on German built cars.

https://www.debatepolitics.com/europe/282252-brexit-go-w-46-a-272.html#post1071124496

If we get a free trade deal with the EU that will happen, if we don't then we won't. If we choose to void tariffs on EU products then we have to do the same for all other nations. This has (I repeat again) been covered ad nauseam by the more informed posters on this thread.

Somme Kippers like to think in simplistic terms with phrases like "we are the EU's cash-cow," "ruled from Brussels", "we want are country back" etc etc but it isn't a simple case of a specific "thing" preventing a free trade agreement being signed. If it was simple, then Liam Fox or David Davies would have sorted a free trade deal when they first promised it would happen.

You now may feel free to accuse me of dodging, however I have answered your question for the third time hopefully as simply as possible. I cannot go any simpler than that. For any further response - read back on the thread or go read the WTO terms, especially Article 24 and if unclear - watch BoJo's interview with Andrew Neill on this very matter.

 
Chagos said:
In that context......when are they going to get Mark Francois committed?

No need to elaborate where to.
Click to expand...

Well, the lunatics have taken over the asylum, so it's a moot point.

At least we know most of the nut jobs are going to be in Parliament Square on Jan 31st:

Brexit-Celebration-Logo.png


*** cough *** fao revenge-seeking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps *** cough ***
 
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