[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]*** (1 Viewer)

[Sven Karma]

I doubt if Brexit would have happened without him.

Yeah I guess he monetized his high media profile to land a nice job on London radio.

 

[Westphalian]

Yeah I guess he monetized his high media profile to land a nice job on London radio.

He has an enormous following, and created a party in UKIP which topped voting in the 2014 EP elections.


The electoral threat of UKIP was instrumental in the Tories putting a referendum into their 2015 election manifesto.


The rest is history, but do feel free to continue to under-estimate those with whom you disagree ............ it's worked really well so far

 

[Jack Hays]

Yeah I guess he monetized his high media profile to land a nice job on London radio.

I'm not an admirer, but there's no denying he brought about significant change.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

~ The electoral threat of UKIP was instrumental in the Tories putting a referendum into their 2015 election manifesto ~

LOL what?

If UKIP was a true electoral threat it would have had more MPs than the single one who crossed the debating floor to leave the Conservative party. The 2015 manifesto pledge was simply the result of the ongoing civil war in the Conservative party that has raged since 1975. "Europe" has brought down nearly every Conservative PM since 75.

 

[Rogue Valley]

LOL what?

If UKIP was a true electoral threat it would have had more MPs than the single one who crossed the debating floor to leave the Conservative party. The 2015 manifesto pledge was simply the result of the ongoing civil war in the Conservative party that has raged since 1975. "Europe" has brought down nearly every Conservative PM since 75.

But, but, that's not how a Putinista interprets it

 

[Sven Karma]

He has an enormous following, and created a party in UKIP which topped voting in the 2014 EP elections.

The electoral threat of UKIP was instrumental in the Tories putting a referendum into their 2015 election manifesto.

The rest is history, but do feel free to continue to under-estimate those with whom you disagree ............ it's worked really well so far

Oh, no worries, I'm an equal opportunities belittler. We could, for instance, touch on the LibDems and their leader Vince Cable and the dog that did not bark in the night that they have been. I had a leaflet from them through my door in the summer: 'Brexit Wrecks It', apparently. So, the 4 year olds are in charge there.

And to be fair, if I had to choose a Brexiteer to be stranded on a desert island with between Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg and Farage, I'd go for the Nigel without hesitation.

Now you say he has an 'enormous following' and I'm sure all the extended Westphalian family are Facebook Friends of his. But since you mentioned the 2014 European Parliament results, it is ironic that his big mission statement is to return to politics with a 'Brexit Party' to stand in case the great Brexit balls-up means the UK has to stage 2019 Euro parliament elections.

And since, as you say, he helped found UKIP it doesn't reflect brilliantly on his political abilities that he has to devote so much space in his manifesto to talking about all the ways UKIP has gone wrong. He wants his new party to be 'run like a business'. Mmmkay, good luck with that.

What's more, it's all very well you getting sanctimonious from the comfort of your troll factory in downtown Stalingrad and geopolitically I get the lulz but, y'know, some of us actually live have to live here, in this. You know that old Chinese curse 'May you live in interesting times' ? We got that nailed in the UK.

Imagine that in 2015, you had a referendum to 'Bring back Stalin' aka 'Taking back Control'. And 52% voted yes. So, fine, the people have spoken, however quixotically. Now your finest scientists who aren't busy swapping Olympics urine samples are all standing around Stalin's embalmed corpse and Dr. Liam Foxovich announces 'This is going to be the easiest resurrection ever!' His team are confident that they already have 'unspecified technological solutions' that will have Stalin back on his feet in a jiffy. President Mayski pronounces 'Stalin means Stalin' followed by 'Any Stalin is better than no Stalin' and then 'No Stalin is better than a bad Stalin'. You may be prepared to connive in the denial of reality and logic, I'm not.

Lol, thank me later for handing you a Strugatsky brothers filmscript/novel on a plate.

 

[Westphalian]

Oh, no worries, I'm an equal opportunities belittler. We could, for instance, touch on the LibDems and their leader Vince Cable and the dog that did not bark in the night that they have been. I had a leaflet from them through my door in the summer: 'Brexit Wrecks It', apparently. So, the 4 year olds are in charge there.

And to be fair, if I had to choose a Brexiteer to be stranded on a desert island with between Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg and Farage, I'd go for the Nigel without hesitation.

Now you say he has an 'enormous following' and I'm sure all the extended Westphalian family are Facebook Friends of his. But since you mentioned the 2014 European Parliament results, it is ironic that his big mission statement is to return to politics with a 'Brexit Party' to stand in case the great Brexit balls-up means the UK has to stage 2019 Euro parliament elections.

And since, as you say, he helped found UKIP it doesn't reflect brilliantly on his political abilities that he has to devote so much space in his manifesto to talking about all the ways UKIP has gone wrong. He wants his new party to be 'run like a business'. Mmmkay, good luck with that.

What's more, it's all very well you getting sanctimonious from the comfort of your troll factory in downtown Stalingrad and geopolitically I get the lulz but, y'know, some of us actually live have to live here, in this. You know that old Chinese curse 'May you live in interesting times' ? We got that nailed in the UK.

Imagine that in 2015, you had a referendum to 'Bring back Stalin' aka 'Taking back Control'. And 52% voted yes. So, fine, the people have spoken, however quixotically. Now your finest scientists who aren't busy swapping Olympics urine samples are all standing around Stalin's embalmed corpse and Dr. Liam Foxovich announces 'This is going to be the easiest resurrection ever!' His team are confident that they already have 'unspecified technological solutions' that will have Stalin back on his feet in a jiffy. President Mayski pronounces 'Stalin means Stalin' followed by 'Any Stalin is better than no Stalin' and then 'No Stalin is better than a bad Stalin'. You may be prepared to connive in the denial of reality and logic, I'm not.

Lol, thank me later for handing you a Strugatsky brothers filmscript/novel on a plate.

:lamo:lamo


You're a genius SK - I've plagiarised your idea and been promoted by my masters to the rank of Political Commissar 3 (which gives me a few more privileges around here, like a 30 minute lunch break) . I owe you a vodka or two, and when I'm over your way we can meet up in one of those old fashioned public house places with those flashing gambling machines. All good healthy stuff.

I note that you mention Cable. His is the only unashamedly pro European party wanting to ignore Brexit, and they get a massive high single figures of the vote don't they? What does that tell you? Probably that the extremists who want to ignore 2016 are a small minority, although a well organised and funded minority with support from people like Blair from Davos (great optics there, really effective with the mountains in the back-ground and the billionaires all around). Probably explains why the ironically named 'people's vote' campaign is mired in its own rotten stench of self interest and open-ness to being ruthlessly exposed and defeated.

Never understood why Remain people are so negative. Everything is too hard, too difficult, too damaging for the UK .......... it's a self limiting and un-appealing message, and you really need to ban Blair, Tusk, Lord Adonis, Lord Heseltine, Cable etc from presenting the message.

 

[PeteEU]

UK economy grew only 0.2% last quarter but more importantly it shrank 0.6% in December...a key month.

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[Snazzy]

UK economy grew only 0.2% last quarter but more importantly it shrank 0.6% in December...a key month.

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German economy "only" grew 1.5% in 2018, compared with 2.% in 2017. It's the weakest rate of growth since 2013.

Independent economists suggest the economy may have grown by about 0.2% in the final three months of the year.

 

[PeteEU]

German economy "only" grew 1.5% in 2018, compared with 2.% in 2017. It's the weakest rate of growth since 2013.

Independent economists suggest the economy may have grown by about 0.2% in the final three months of the year.

Correct and a lot of that is due to the US vs World trade war going on at the moment and the uncertainty it creates. Brexit has its impact as well of course but it is far far from the biggest concern for the German economy. Ironically one of the major concerns is lack of qualified workers for industry.

My point is, a decline in UK GDP in December, the nr. 1 consumer spending month is quite shocking.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

German economy "only" grew 1.5% in 2018, compared with 2.% in 2017. It's the weakest rate of growth since 2013.

Independent economists suggest the economy may have grown by about 0.2% in the final three months of the year.

Long term or short term, most countries would be quite happy with Germany's economic growth figures.

 

[Westphalian]

Long term or short term, most countries would be quite happy with Germany's economic growth figures.

Not so fast ........ Germany's, and the EU's problems, are profound and impact on Brexit:

Why Europe can't cope - UnHerd

Germany’s economy has become acutely dependent on China both in terms of exports and supply chains in several German industries, and China’s economy is slowing down under the weight of the US-China trade war as well as China’s monetary and credit tightening in the first half of last year.

To make matters worse, China’s ongoing economic rise is acting as significant disruptive force on the German economy. Chinese companies are increasingly in direct competition with German industrial producers, including the automotive sector, as they move higher up the economic value chain as part of Xi Jinping’s Made in China 2025 strategy. German car companies are also caught by the tit-for-tat tariffs between the US and China, since BMW, Volkswagen and Mercedes Benz in part export to China from their American factories.

This ‘China shock’ to the German manufacturing economy will not be shared with other Eurozone economies, since Germany exports much more to China than other European countries, and other economies compete much less in the top-end manufacturing markets China hopes to capture. Consequently, while Italy’s burdens could be lightened by the ECB’s monetary stance, Germany’s predicaments cannot be. This creates little incentive for the German government to acquiesce to more QE, and leaves Germany with a problem to address for which the US-China relationship is more consequential than what happens to its Eurozone partners.

Rather like the Roman Catholic church, the European Union has long worked by fiercely defending the authority of the centre of the Union. Any number of hypocrisies and outright sins are tolerated there while agitation in the periphery is quickly rendered heresy. This structural hierarchy is what always doomed David Cameron’s attempt to renegotiate the terms of Britain’s EU membership, and it is why in the event of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, Ireland is likely to have to accept the EU’s rules on a border with Northern Ireland.

Nonetheless, the Franco-German relationship that has underpinned this hierarchy is insecure. For Macron, getting the French budget deficit below 3% was the primary means to repair the damage to the Franco-German relationship done during François Hollande’s Presidency and to force concessions from Germany on the Eurozone. When he did, the German government still rejected his reform plans. Now, in his concessions to the gilet jaunes, Macron has palpably sacrificed what remained of his European ambitions to his domestic problems.

Germany’s interests are, in part, now well served by the willingness of other north European states to resist France on Eurozone matters. By contrast, Germany’s China problems belong to it and it alone, and the China-driven difficulties for the auto sector, in particular, ensure that the German government simply cannot be cavalier about the prospect of a no-deal Brexit. Of course, Merkel may choose to privilege maintaining the EU’s authority over the economic and geopolitical costs of a no-transition Brexit, but the economic and geopolitical differences between France and Germany are now politically inescapable.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

Not so fast ........ Germany's, and the EU's problems, are profound and impact on Brexit:

Why Europe can't cope - UnHerd

Germany’s economy has become acutely dependent on China ~

I'm just going to stop there...

https://comtrade.tradingeconomics.com/comtrade/share?r=deu&c=0000&v=treemapmarkets&t=2&title=

Mind you, the only beginning of a doomsday scenario likely to hit Germany is if China AND the UK stop importing German goods as that would be a fifth of all German exports.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

British nationals who have retired to EU countries may no longer have their healthcare costs covered by the NHS in the event of a no-deal Brexit and many are considering returning home, reports Vishala Sri-Pathma. The British love affair with Spain dates back to the 1970s when package holidays first became popular. Since then they've visited in their millions, with many even taking the leap to move from Britain to make Spain their home.

~ Yvonne Stone, 62, is one of the younger members of the club and tells me she voted for Brexit: "I've been here for three years and have no plans to go back to the UK - but it will depend on what happens. "When I voted to leave I didn't think it would change anything for my rights to live here. We like it here and we don't want to go back but if I don't get my pension we might not have a choice." Link.

Like those Leave voters who work at Nissan or for automotive supply chain companies - what the "F" did these people think they were voting for???

 

[Westphalian]

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Like those Leave voters who work at Nissan or for automotive supply chain companies - what the "F" did these people think they were voting for???

The stock refrain of Remoaners - I'm paraphrasing, but basically it's the ignorant, stupid, dumb Leave voters ...........



Yet you still sit and wonder why you haven't moved vast numbers to your side. Seriously IC ........... you're better than that, even though many leaders on your side (Blair, Heseltine, Adonis, Umunna) are so self righteously up their own backsides of condescending self interest that they probably are incapable of rational thought when it comes to how Remain blew its lead in the referendum and lost at the nahds of the un-washed.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

The stock refrain of Remoaners - I'm paraphrasing, but basically it's the ignorant, stupid, dumb Leave voters ...........

I wouldn't say all were ignorant, stupid and dumb - many genuinely believed the hype or think the UK will do as well outside the EU. Another bunch only voted on the grounds of immigration and they were the type let down by governments of all variety who did not apply existing EU rules to limit who could come from the EU or did not reinvest taxes earned from Polish / Romanian workers into local services where those migrants moved to - but nobody can deny that a large number also voted thinking that the effects of leaving didn't apply to them.

For this bunch, no other words are necessary. They voted without thinking through the consequences. Funny thing is that people like Yvonne Stone will get no sympathy from other leave voters who voted on xenophobic grounds. You'll see replies on other forums and news websites saying these people should not just vote leave but actually leave themselves for daring to want to live outside the UK.

Even you would probably admit quietly that many other Leave voters will happily throw their own under a bus.

 

[Jack Hays]

I wouldn't say all were ignorant, stupid and dumb - many genuinely believed the hype or think the UK will do as well outside the EU. Another bunch only voted on the grounds of immigration and they were the type let down by governments of all variety who did not apply existing EU rules to limit who could come from the EU or did not reinvest taxes earned from Polish / Romanian workers into local services where those migrants moved to - but nobody can deny that a large number also voted thinking that the effects of leaving didn't apply to them.

For this bunch, no other words are necessary. They voted without thinking through the consequences. Funny thing is that people like Yvonne Stone will get no sympathy from other leave voters who voted on xenophobic grounds. You'll see replies on other forums and news websites saying these people should not just vote leave but actually leave themselves for daring to want to live outside the UK.

Even you would probably admit quietly that many other Leave voters will happily throw their own under a bus.

I'm an outsider, so this is a question rather than even a suggestion. Is it possible that analysts of voting behavior were somewhat misled by the assumption that the only rational vote is one that favors the voter's material/financial interest? I ask because I get the impression some Leave voters are aware there will be economic pain but they believe some other goal is more important.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

I'm an outsider, so this is a question rather than even a suggestion. Is it possible that analysts of voting behavior were somewhat misled by the assumption that the only rational vote is one that favors the voter's material/financial interest? I ask because I get the impression some Leave voters are aware there will be economic pain but they believe some other goal is more important.

You are absolutely correct, there were quite a few who believed the idea that the EU somehow ruled the United Kingdom or made the laws by which the UK is run. Another proportion also believed the EU vote was about being able to limit immigration or at least control immigration. This was often fed by the Govt own targets which led people to believe that EU immigration couldn't be controlled because no matter who the Home Secretary - EU immigration remained stubbornly high. The red tops like the Mail and Express fed on and promoted these types of fears.
The lady in the story was this type of voter - like many of similar view and age who migrated to Spain to live a British life, these emigrants didn't like the idea of EU nationals moving to the UK and living their original lifestyle in the UK.

Hence the phrase Ms Stone saying she didn't "think the vote would affect her in Spain" when what she wanted was her vote to affect the lives of EU migrants wishing to move to the UK.

 

[PeteEU]

Brexit: Ford warns no-deal would be ‘catastrophic’ and could cost thousands of UK jobs | The Independent Brexit: Ford warns no-deal would be ‘catastrophic’ and could cost thousands of UK jobs | The Independent

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[Chagos]

The stock refrain of Remoaners - I'm paraphrasing, but basically it's the ignorant, stupid, dumb Leave voters ............

You haven't made one single argument on what's good about "Leaving" and where you have attempted to, you've failed on account of the rubbish factor that anything you cite tends to hold.

All you can do is moan and whine about how Leavers are called stupid and, where some demonstrable examples are displayed, whinge even more.

You address nothing and you have nothing.

But then we all know why you're here, debate being way outside your interest.

 

[Chagos]

I'm an outsider, so this is a question rather than even a suggestion. Is it possible that analysts of voting behavior were somewhat misled by the assumption that the only rational vote is one that favors the voter's material/financial interest? I ask because I get the impression some Leave voters are aware there will be economic pain but they believe some other goal is more important.

To add to IC's post (#1218) one need also to know what many of the Leavers have either forgotten or never knew at all.

Namely that on the subject of EU nationals moving undeterredly into the UK (with Eastern Europeans being the main cause of "English" discontent) it was actually the UK that opened its borders to them, once countries like Poland, Hungary etc. had successfully joined the EU.

The common legend nowadays reads that it was all the EU's doing and that is a load of rubbish. As examples, France and Germany put the stops on any Eastern Europeans invading their labor markets. At least of a temporary kind that allowed for adjustments until things could be properly channelled. Which UK could have done just as well without Brussels playing any role.

But the UK did no such thing, it welcomed the cheap labor that in myths ever since caused the English to lose their jobs.

Our St. Petersburg disinformation agent continuously laments and moans and whines over how some Leavers are classified as dumb. Yet in this example (among many others) there's no other adjective that fits.

 

[Westphalian]

To add to IC's post (#1218) one need also to know what many of the Leavers have either forgotten or never knew at all.

Namely that on the subject of EU nationals moving undeterredly into the UK (with Eastern Europeans being the main cause of "English" discontent) it was actually the UK that opened its borders to them, once countries like Poland, Hungary etc. had successfully joined the EU.

The common legend nowadays reads that it was all the EU's doing and that is a load of rubbish. As examples, France and Germany put the stops on any Eastern Europeans invading their labor markets. At least of a temporary kind that allowed for adjustments until things could be properly channelled. Which UK could have done just as well without Brussels playing any role.

But the UK did no such thing, it welcomed the cheap labor that in myths ever since caused the English to lose their jobs.

Our St. Petersburg disinformation agent continuously laments and moans and whines over how some Leavers are classified as dumb. Yet in this example (among many others) there's no other adjective that fits.

No - wrong again Chagos.


Leavers are perfectly aware that the UK could have used those transitional arrangements, and they did not. In this sense you are correct. That was the UK's fault.


But now those transitional arrangements have ended. Therefore Leavers know that inside the EU's free movement zone the UK is unable to stop immigration from other EU states, and they want the UK to take full control of immigration.

Moreover, and not unreasonably, they want the UK to stop discriminating based on geography. They want (for example) skilled doctors from Australia, and engineers from Canada rather than unskilled laborers from Poland or petty criminals from Romania. They know, quite rightly, that the UK can't do anything about the EU and they feel that's crazy.

 

[Chagos]

No - wrong again Chagos.

You calling somebody else's statements wrong actually endorses them.

That's the occupational hazard of any disinformation agent.

With the rest of our post being of the usual value", no need to address it any further.

 

[PeteEU]

.

Moreover, and not unreasonably, they want the UK to stop discriminating based on geography. They want (for example) skilled doctors from Australia, and engineers from Canada rather than unskilled laborers from Poland or petty criminals from Romania. They know, quite rightly, that the UK can't do anything about the EU and they feel that's crazy.

Oh stop the BS.

1) Australians and Canadians access to the UK is and always has been under the full control of the UK.

2) You xenophobic stereotypes of Poles and Romanians is disgusting and false.

If an EU citizen is caught in a crime and convicted, then said person can be kicked for life. Just happened to a Brit in Denmark.

As for "unskilled" Poles. If they were so bad then why do British companies hire them over locals (allegedly)?


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[Sven Karma]

Meanwhile the UK government continues to shoot itself in the foot:

China cancels trade talks with UK in protest over defence secretary's speech - The Sun | Reuters