[W:1][W:11][W:368] Russia invades Ukraine: Live Thread

[Centrist]

1. I don't know what you're watching but 2 million have left Ukraine and gone into Europe and it's not even 2 weeks into the war - more than a million per week. Putin's war machine is making Ukraine uninhabitable now. This is happening because he is the one making all the bets, and we're just reacting to him. He knows we're scared of him. What would change his mind is if he suddenly got an indication that we're not scared of him, and that we're willing to take bigger risks than he assumes now. We're literally playing the game of risk, and he's winning.

2. They/we are already facing economic fallout. Europe already has an Ukrainian refugee crisis. Already has an energy and inflation crisis. The world is about to have a massive food/energy inflation driven by supply disruptions. That's already in motion and I don't see how we unwind it. There's actually a non-zero chance that this actually increases Putin's leverage. As I've pointed out before, he doesn't have the pesky little problem of elections to worry about. The audience he has to impress is far smaller.

3. The far-right extremists and Putin are working together and have been for some time. They're doing it now. Again, the way you beat both Putin and the extreme right is to confront them. Ignoring them hasn't helped in either case. They just get more emboldened. They prey on weakness and fear. It's beyond tragic that there are powers with resources to confront someone like Putin but choose not to out of fear. Putin is the aggressor, not the United States, not NATO, not Ukraine. And he's not done once he finishes with Ukraine. You're naive if you believe that. The invasion of Ukraine wasn't just about Ukraine anymore than the bombing of Aleppo was just to protect a friend in Syria. It's Putin's attempt to wreck the international democratic order.

4. Doing nothing will lead to more civilian deaths. Establishing a no-fly zone means Russia can't fly bombers. It also means they now have to think twice about launching missiles, and so does Belarus. And I'd make it clear to Belarus's Lukashenko: fire missiles from Belarus, bye-bye Belarus. Putin would then get it: we're not ****ing around here. More importantly, people around Putin would get it. They will have seen their currency crash, their armed forces in Ukrained massacred, and a puppet state crushed. It would be insane for Russia to continue prosecuting the war. They prosecute it now because Putin is trying to see what the West is and isn't willing to pay, what our vulnerabilities are, what we're afraid of. And he's probably calculated correctly: America and NATO are all afraid of Putin's war machine, and Europe is afraid of Putin cutting off the energy pipelines. That's not going to change if he decides he wants to up the ante and destabilize and disrupt governments in Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.

1. Yes, 2 millions now, imagine what will happen if NATO does really engage.
2. Now people tolerate inflation because the videos and the images being shown are powerful. They want to help, there is also religious solidarity between ukrainians/polish/romanians/etc. being christians. All those things are short term, for now, because if peace is delayed, slowly people, when they will not have enough in their own country to pump their gas will vote either far right or far left, both movements want to break from NATO. So we are talking about endagering the stability of the alliance.
3. Not all far right movements. Some are streaming in Ukraine responding to Zelensky's call to defend the country in the name of global nationalism.
4. The situation is too complex to just "make it clear" to Lukashenko and Putin. Turkey also has a lot at stake. If Putin cuts his gas, the system is at risk. You can't just sum it up to we will show them. That is Trump thinking. There was a leak the other day in which it was revelead that Trump called Putin and told him "Vladimir if you attack Ukraine, we will strike Moscow". Me for one, I don't agree with Trump thinking.

We are doing someting, the economic sanctions, sports sanctions, culture sanctions, defensive weapons, Russia is becoming isolated.

This is exactly my problem with individuals like Zelensky. Is not them that I have issues with, he probably is a good guy looking out for his country. The issue is when you become a somewhat idol, you get surrounded by other idealists around you that will end up burying Ukraine thinking they are in a movie.

I will like to notice the leadership of Stoltenberg @ NATO. This guy was calm and reasonable during Trump's rages, now he has to put up with all this propaganda from his war machine. Congratulations to him.

 

[Slartibartfast]

What is it with evil movements that that particular salute?

 

[Slartibartfast]

Woman who ran Russia propaganda center in New York charged as foreign agent

Elena Branson, who has both US and Russian citizenship, received thousands of dollars from Moscow to run center

www.theguardian.com

 

[Juks]

Analysis: Russia and QAnon have the same false conspiracy theory about Ukraine

A new conspiracy theory has become popular among some of the online communities that formed around QAnon -- one simultaneously being promoted by the Kremlin as a justification for its invasion of Ukraine. The false claim: the United States is developing bioweapons in Ukraine and Vladimir Putin...

edition.cnn.com

This has also been claimed in this thread. which made me go for a different angle to Janfu's post

Putin will NOT use chemical weapons of the types used in Syria

Don't be so sure. The propaganda claiming that the Ukraine has biological weapons has already been floating around (even in this thread). Could be that Russia is planning to use such weapons and blame the Ukraine.

Russia did after al use biological weapons in Syria. What do you think?

 

[Arkantos]

 

[fireflygmf]

You're right, the proper focus for understanding why and how McVeigh blew up a kindergarten and killed all those others is to study what Janet Reno did when she had the power of the AG's office.

The fault was Reno's, for drawing up close to militia groups.

I find this in extremely poor taste. The other poster has already said he isn't making an excuse for Russian invasion, but is discussing the dynamics and geopolitics of the situation and hypothesized how we got here. I don't see anyone here that says Russia is in the right and that there is some defensible position here (scratch that, EMofSeattle does). Regardless, nothing happens in a vacuum, you're smart, and I know you realize that. Just debate and counter point the guy with reasonable alternatives, this isn't a trolling site, it's a debate site. Show why his line of reasoning is wrong without strawmanning his argument as defending Russia, that's not how I read it at all.

 

[JANFU]

This has also been claimed in this thread. which made me go for a different angle to Janfu's post




Russia did after al use biological weapons in Syria. What do you think?

I do not think he will use chemical weapons in Ukraine

 

[JANFU]

I am terribly sorry that I only speak 4 languages.
But I have lived in the US for more than 30 years and English is the language I use daily.

Don't be arrogant, it does not suit you well.
Makes you look like a moron
Like the final solution moron

I was not being arrogant
You read that the wrong way

 

[multivita-man]

I do not think he will use chemical weapons in Ukraine

But why wouldn't he? I'm not making a prediction, but he's already fired missiles at nuclear facilities, already dropped tons of ordnance in civilian areas - war crimes. Chemical warfare would be just another escalation. Putin wants to use Ukraine to intimidate NATO countries, which he hopes will divide NATO countries into two distinct camps: isolationists who turn their backs away from Putin's offensives & far-right anti-democrats in one camp (i.e. isolationist independents and radical MJT republicans) and democratic pro-alliance groups (mostly center left & right) in the other camp.

 

[Juks]

Woman who ran Russia propaganda center in New York charged as foreign agent

Elena Branson, who has both US and Russian citizenship, received thousands of dollars from Moscow to run center

www.theguardian.com

You register companies and people as "foreign agencies"? I mean, not spies, not people engaged in covert operations, but normal people that for some reason, maybe because it is their original country, are promoting another countries culture or politics and that for some reason has been able to convince someone in the original country to help finance them? And even when this financing is done and reported openly ?


Does this makes me into a foreign agent?

I am not financial supported by anyone I promise!!!

It's like in...... Russia.....

 

[Juks]

I believe a tactical mistake just has been made. Sergej Lavrov said in a press conference after the talks with his Ukrainian contrapart that the attack on the maternity hospital was justified because the hospital had no patients and was taken in by the oppositions forces.

Ohh I see China gnash their teeths. To be associated with a country in a war that openly admits to war crimes.... It is not the image that China wants and for China it is al about image.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Unbelievable.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

I believe a tactical mistake just has been made. Sergej Lavrov said in a press conference after the talks with his Ukrainian contrapart that the attack on the maternity hospital was justified because the hospital had no patients and was taken in by the oppositions forces.

Ohh I see China gnash their teeths. To be associated with a country in a war that openly admits to war crimes.... It is not the image that China wants and for China it is al about image.

No, a hospital that is being used by enemy forces for military purposes is not protected. So Lavrovs admission is not to a war crime.

If Russian forces targeted it believing it was cleared of civilians and in use by the the enemy it is not a war crime. This is really self interested moral preening though as Ukranian officials have openly called on their troops to commit war crimes and they are publishing videos purporting to show POWs being mistreated under the Geneva convention.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

What is it with evil movements that that particular salute?

Lol. Russia is not an evil movement.

 

[Binary_Digit]

You yourself have pointed out that Nato is a powerful military alliance. I agree. The most powerful military alliance in the world. That fact by itself makes it a threat. Nato may not be hostile to Russia today, but can you guarantee that it will not turn hostile on Russia tomorrow?

I find this in extremely poor taste. The other poster has already said he isn't making an excuse for Russian invasion, but is discussing the dynamics and geopolitics of the situation and hypothesized how we got here.

Former Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev: Putin's claim of NATO's so-called aggressive expansionism is just a "conviction of convenience" because he needs a foreign enemy to blame for Russia's disastrous economy.

MSN

"NATO expansionism and/or aggression" is a bullshit excuse for this war. Period.

 

[Binary_Digit]

Lol. Russia is not an evil movement.

Deplorable.

 

[JANFU]

No, a hospital that is being used by enemy forces for military purposes is not protected. So Lavrovs admission is not to a war crime.

If Russian forces targeted it believing it was cleared of civilians and in use by the the enemy it is not a war crime. This is really self interested moral preening though as Ukranian officials have openly called on their troops to commit war crimes and they are publishing videos purporting to show POWs being mistreated under the Geneva convention.

Do you write fiction for Russia?

 

[Juks]

No, a hospital that is being used by enemy forces for military purposes is not protected. So Lavrovs admission is not to a war crime.

If Russian forces targeted it believing it was cleared of civilians and in use by the the enemy it is not a war crime. This is really self interested moral preening though as Ukranian officials have openly called on their troops to commit war crimes and they are publishing videos purporting to show POWs being mistreated under the Geneva convention.

You are in fact suggesting that the Chinese are idiots or that they doesn't mind being taken for idiots. I believe neither to be true. In the short term they might go with that. But as I said, they gnash their teeths.

 

[PoS]

Talks today in Turkey have ended with no progress.

I doubt Russia will take negotiations seriously without taking more serious losses. It'll take at least another 50K dead and wounded Russians before they really get serious on the talking part.

 

[bave]

Really? The opposite seems more like it.

I doubt it.

Ok, do you have something for me to read from an expert who doesn't see provocation? I am happy to read it, seriously, please.

What the **** are you babbling about?

You asked where the illegality of the coup was, I told you. When the coup toppled the government in 2014 and replaced it with a new government, that was outright unconstitutional in Ukraine, something even Ukraine admitted, they just felt they had to do it anyway. Again imagine if a Chinese backed coup toppled the Mexican government and then helped install a new pro-chinese government which promptly began allowing chinese troops into the country and took concrete steps towards a military alliance.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

You are in fact suggesting that the Chinese are idiots or that they doesn't mind being taken for idiots. I believe neither to be true. In the short term they might go with that. But as I said, they gnash their teeths.

Do you think that the Chinese really care that much about this? I get that living in an entirely white socialist country you think that this is some sort of giant scandal. Outside of countries that are 90+ percent white, this doesn’t even register as a problem.

I mean, you are actually sitting here insisting that China, the great defender of human rights it is known to be, is going to accept the world as you view it? That’s just silliness. They don’t care about Western conceptions of Conduct except in so far as they can use them as moral blackmail.

 

[Sven Karma]

I doubt Russia will take negotiations seriously without taking more serious losses. It'll take at least another 50K dead and wounded Russians before they really get serious on the talking part.

Putin sure has taken us deep into the world of Donald Rumsfeld's 'unknown unknowns'.

 

[Nomad4Ever]

I appreciate your response to my post. I don't have time right now to address all the points, but I wanted to say one thing.

It is important to not be pro-NATO whilst also not being pro-Russia, trading one imperialism for another.

I said this some thousands of posts ago in this thread, but I actually don't think NATO is the problem. I know I know, but hear me out. Is the problem that a defensive military alliance exists? Or is the problem that some of the members of that alliance are imperialist powers? I don't feel like the existence of NATO is what allowed the US to invade Iraq, but it has benefited the smaller soviet block nations immensely. The strongest proponent of NATO isn't the US. We don't need NATO. In recent years, the countries that NATO is most relevant for are countries like Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, etc.

Essentially, I don't really think that NATO or more countries joining NATO is a bad thing.

 

[Juks]

Do you think that the Chinese really care that much about this? I get that living in an entirely white socialist country you think that this is some sort of giant scandal. Outside of countries that are 90+ percent white, this doesn’t even register as a problem.

I mean, you are actually sitting here insisting that China, the great defender of human rights it is known to be, is going to accept the world as you view it? That’s just silliness. They don’t care about Western conceptions of Conduct except in so far as they can use them as moral blackmail.

I believe that the Chinese doesn't care a bit about either Europe, Ukraine or Russia. I believe that China cares a lot about their own image, proudness and their narratives towards Taiwan and that those narratives shall not be "violated".

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Do you write fiction for Russia?

No, I am explaining to you the law of war as it is understood to apply. And then explaining that Sergey lavrov does not admit to violating it. Sergei Lavrov’s words contain no admission of violating the law.

I believe that the Chinese doesn't care a bit about either Europe, Ukraine or Russia. I believe that China cares a lot about their own image, proudness and their narratives towards Taiwan and that those narratives shall not be "violated".

They are literally throwing people in concentration camps, and I don’t believe for one second that Shana will fight a war in Taiwan cleaner than the Russians have been fighting in Ukraine. People in Taipei will wish they were living in Grozny when China is done with them if they resist too hard.