US manufacturing survey shows worst reading in a decade

[Socratica]

You mean the data that shows that many teens are just a continuation of what happened under Obama.

I don't know what data or "teens" you're talking about. Citi Economic Surplus index is an aggregate of all leading, lagging and coincident indicators economist use to gauge the health of the economy.

From Q1 2014 to Q3 2016, the index was negative, which means economic indicators performed weaker than expected. From Q1 2017 to Q3 2018, the index was mostly positive, which means economic indictors performed better than expected.

Well, except the DOW for almost 2 years. It's been fairly flat.

Again, I don't know what you're talking about. The Dow has gained 16.68% within the same period two years ago. (26,573 / 22,773 - 1 = .1668)

 

[Jay59]

I don't know what data or "teens" you're talking about. Citi Economic Surplus index is an aggregate of all leading, lagging and coincident indicators economist use to gauge the health of the economy.

From Q1 2014 to Q3 2016, the index was negative, which means economic indicators performed weaker than expected. From Q1 2017 to Q3 2018, the index was mostly positive, which means economic indictors performed better than expected.

Again, I don't know what you're talking about. The Dow has gained 16.68% within the same period two years ago. (26,573 / 22,773 - 1 = .1668)

He just finished saying that facts don't matter.

 

[CaughtInThe]

I'll take that as a no. Good to know.

Half the time these days sane people debate reality with Trump's most crazy supporters (who have taken on his personality and say he's the best of the best at everything and is a victim when really he's just doing what he's always done, cheat people).

It's a racket.

 

[Risky Thicket]

Sorry but this has to be fake nooz. Donald Trump has done more to fix the economy and help manufacturing than any President in history. More than anyone ever, in any country, in all of history.

Donald Trump created history.

 

[CaughtInThe]

I don't know what data or "teens" you're talking about. Citi Economic Surplus index is an aggregate of all leading, lagging and coincident indicators economist use to gauge the health of the economy.

From Q1 2014 to Q3 2016, the index was negative, which means economic indicators performed weaker than expected. From Q1 2017 to Q3 2018, the index was mostly positive, which means economic indictors performed better than expected.



Again, I don't know what you're talking about. The Dow has gained 16.68% within the same period two years ago. (26,573 / 22,773 - 1 = .1668)

Well farmers are on welfare and the manufacturing sector is now turned bad while the DOW had been flat for almost 2 years (while Trump skyrocketed the US deficit to give himself a massive tax cut).

Why do you guys leave so much stuff out?

 

[Khayembii Communique]

Nonsense. EPS is based on PE.

EPS is literally Net Income divided by shares outstanding, neither of which are impacted by the P/E ratio. You're not making any sense.

Aswath Damodaran is an academian who never ran a business or worked in the finance industry. No one of significance pays attention to him outside the white towers. He is neither an economist, nor an analyst, just a professor facing publish or perish.

Okay well if we're appealing to authority then I've run businesses and work in finance advising boards and executives on capital allocation and capital structure decisions among other things which specifically includes buybacks so if appeal to authority is all we need then I'll appeal to myself.

 

[Casper]

A lot of smart people are predicting a collapse of the worldwide economy. 99% of the 'wealth' in the world is in the form of paper - currency, contracts, real estate, derivatives. Buy silver. At least that's real.

My savings now are in the form of pre-1965 dimes & quarters & vintage gold coins. Dimes are cheap & 90% silver. A dime that was worth $0.10 in 1964 is now worth $1.40. Folding money etc. is spiraling into nothingness as Trump prints more & more of it to fill in the huge debt that he created with his tax cut for the rich.

This country has gone through periodic depressions. They are much worse that recessions & last longer. We're overdue for one.

Another Fellow Prepper, good for you.

 

[Socratica]

Well farmers are on welfare and the manufacturing sector is now turned bad while the DOW had been flat for almost 2 years (while Trump skyrocketed the US deficit to give himself a massive tax cut).

I don't know anything about any farmers on welfare, a +16.68% gain in the last two years isn't "flat;" the only thing you've said that made any modicum of sense was the situation regarding manufacturing, which isn't really the end of the world.

Why do you guys leave so much stuff out?

Who are you talking to?

 

[CaughtInThe]

I don't know anything about any farmers on welfare, a +16.68% gain in the last two years isn't "flat;" the only thing you've said that made any modicum of sense was the situation regarding manufacturing, which isn't really the end of the world.



Who are you talking to?

here, let me draw you a picture so you can understand what "almost 2 years" and "flat" means with relation to the DOW...

 

[Socratica]

here, let me draw you a picture so you can understand what "almost 2 years" and "flat" means with relation to the DOW...

View attachment 67265211

Is there a reason why you arbitrarily picked a time frame of "almost 2 years," other than to cherry-pick any manipulate your information?

Why not use 1, 2 and 3 year time-frames, like most of the investment community?

 

[CaughtInThe]

Is there a reason why you arbitrarily picked a time frame of "almost 2 years," other than to cherry-pick any manipulate your information?

yeah, i went back to the high of the market and then went forward. we're basically, almost two years later, in the same place.

now, here is before that. do you REALLY think this chart is all that great?

 

[Socratica]

yeah, i went back to the high of the market and then went forward. we're basically, almost two years later, in the same place.

I'm not sure what sense you think this makes... Portfolio managers want to determine their performance based on annualized returns. They want to know if their performance today is better than it was the same time a year ago; two years ago; three years ago, and five years ago. Comparisons to the peak of the market is largely irrelevant; nobody makes comparisons like this...

now, here is before that. do you REALLY think this chart is all that great?

View attachment 67265212

I don't know what the time frame is for this time series, nor do I know what the returns are.

I don't know what you are trying to show me; I don't think you know, either.

 

[CaughtInThe]

I'm not sure what sense you think this makes... Portfolio managers determine their performance based on annualized returns. They want to know if their performance today is better than it was the same time a year ago; two years ago; three years ago, and five years ago. The peak of the market is largely irrelevant.



I don't know what the time frame is for this time series, nor do I know what the returns are.

I don't know what you are trying to show me; I don't think you know, either.

the point is simply that the DOW has been flat for almost two years. it's what i said initially that you responded to.

 

[Bullseye]

Source: US manufacturing survey shows worst reading in a decade

I've been watching U.S. manufacturing in a general decline slope for the past 5 or 6 months. What are we to make of this? And, what may it spell for the economy? There's a lot here to cover, so I'm just going to throw out some random thoughts for discussion:

- Despite the U.S. manufacturing decline, the U.S. consumer is still going strong, including showing strong recent housing data.

- China, we should note, also released their PMI data beating expectations, showing the strongest gains in nearly two years.

- Manufacturing is now only around 12.5% of the U.S. economy.

- The world economies are declining, though last quarter Brazil - and now just recently China - seem to be recovering. Both have been aggressively addressing their fiscal & monetary policies, as has Europe.

So here's my take (opinion) on this:

I still believe that if we go into a manufacturing slump, which seems possible, then there will be enough fall-out that it will tip our rather precarious economy and financial markets in a negative direction - particularly the markets. Aggressive Fed easing may ameliorate this if, and this is a big 'if', if consumer confidence & consumer sentiment stays strong.

There's an additional wild card of course, which is Trump's trade war. As of late, nothing seems to effect the immediacy of our financial markets as much as Trump's interference.

Things to watch:

The upcoming Employment Report, the Consumer Confidence Index, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The jobs report will be released this upcoming Friday (10/4), and the confidence indexes are released later in the month.

My final (humble) opinion:

If the above noted reports (Emp, CCI, MSCI) are good, and Trump isn't interfering, I believe our markets may remain reasonably stable. If these reports turn negative, I believe we may possibly be heading into another market decline similar to those that occurred during the Spring of 2018 and the end of 2018. Unfortunately if this occurs, we would seem to be in a 2 year flat-to-declining market, which hopefully is not the "head" of a "head & shoulders" chart, but I do have my fears.

i gotta suspect that the decline in manufacture sentiment has got to be that the companies see that possibility that the Dems are going to destroy the economy if they succeed in destroying Trump. They see the possibility of reinstated taxes and regulations dismantling the progress made so far.

 

[Socratica]

the point is simply that the DOW has been flat for almost two years. it's what i said initially that you responded to.

Yes, if you use some arbitrary point in time in the past to compare the Dow's performance, we can see that it has been flat. You've made that point clear. It's the meaningless, nonsensical point, but you've made it nonetheless.

Of course, nobody compares the Dow today from what it was "almost two years" ago. Legally, portfolio/fund managers cannot do this.

 

[CaughtInThe]

Yes, if you use some arbitrary point in time in the past to compare the Dow's performance, we can see that it has been flat. You've made that point clear. It's the meaningless, nonsensical point, but you've made it nonetheless.

Of course, nobody compares the Dow today from what it was "almost two years" ago. Legally, portfolio/fund managers cannot do this.

uh, i took the point in which the DOW topped out and moved forward to today.

meaning, we topped out and have been in chop for almost two years.

and just for the record, Donald Trump has only been in office for ~ 2 years, 250 days. so, as with almost everything he says, it's a lie that he's the greatest thing since sliced bread for the DOW.

 

[Socratica]

uh, i took the point in which the DOW topped out and moved forward to today.

meaning, we topped out and have been in chop for almost two years.

That's nice, but that's not meaningful. We don't compare Dow Jones performance to the peak; we compare it to the beginning of the year. YTD, the DOW is +13.91; compared to one year ago, the DOW is -0.29%; compared to two years ago, the DOW is +16.68%.

and just for the record, Donald Trump has only been in office for ~ 2 years, 250 days. so, as with almost everything he says, it's a lie that he's the greatest thing since sliced bread for the DOW.

Irrelevant.

 

[CaughtInThe]

That's nice, but that's not meaningful. We don't compare Dow Jones performance to the peak; we compare it to the beginning of the year. YTD, the DOW is +13.91; compared to one year ago, the DOW is -0.29%; compared to two years ago, the DOW is +16.68%.



Irrelevant.

Of course it's meaningful. The DOW topped out and we've been in chop ever since.

Now we just wait to see whether it busts out or crashes.

 

[Helix]

Disposable real incomes increased; the purpose of the tax cuts is to increase real disposable incomes.

In that regard, the tax cuts did their job.

They did in a way. They gave the rich a lot more money with which to make themselves richer.

 

[Socratica]

Of course it's meaningful. The DOW topped out and we've been in chop ever since.

I don't know what you mean by "we;" the DOW gained +13.91% since the start of the year. Obviously, if you were stupid enough to buy at the all-time high, you must be talking about yourself...

Now we just wait to see whether it busts out or crashes.

Nonsense. There will be no crash; there is no bubble.

 

[CaughtInThe]

I don't know what you mean by "we;" the DOW gained +13.91% since the start of the year. Obviously, if you were stupid enough to buy at the all-time high, you must be talking about yourself...



Nonsense. There will be no crash; there is no bubble.

As an actual trader myself I certainly don't take advice from political people about whether things are going to bust out or crash. I just read the charts.

The current trend is chop and it's been trapped in a range for almost 2 years. At some point it will either bust out or pull back and/or crash.

That's just how it works.

 

[Socratica]

They did in a way.

There is no, "in a way;" that is what tax cuts do. They increase disposable incomes by reducing personal current taxes.

They gave the rich a lot more money with which to make themselves richer.

People with more income get larger tax breaks. That shouldn't be surprising.

 

[MTAtech]

I don't buy your source. It's a very vague article with no methodology given.

Most likely they are counting mutual funds as commercial ownership, which is a bit silly. Mutual funds, particularly in 401(k) plans, are how the middle class invests.

First, I'm not selling anything, so you don't have to buy.
Second, the source said, Goldman Sachs, stock ownership is extremely concentrated because of the growing wealth gap in the U.S., and thus the market’s performance affects households making up the wealthiest 1% of Americans much more significantly than the other 99%.

Third, most average Americans don't have sizable 401(k) investments. Those in the higher income range fund their 401 (k) far more. Roughly half of all households are offered work-based retirement plans at their current jobs, and 25% of US adults have no retirement savings. The median American household has just $11,700 in total savings. And 29 percent of households have less than $1,000, while the top 1 percent of earners have a median balance of $1.13 million.

 

[Socratica]

As an actual trader myself I certainly don't take advice from political people about whether things are going to bust out or crash. I just read the charts.

You're not a very good trader. I know this because you're reading charts incorrectly. And you don't seem to understand how annualized returns or stock performance is measured.

The current trend is chop and it's been trapped in a range for almost 2 years. At some point it will either bust out or pull back and/or crash.

That's just how it works.

That isn't even remotely how it works. Stocks are heavily correlated with one another (correlation coefficient of .74), which means over time stock trends move upward. If there wasn't a correction already, there isn't going to be.

 

[Helix]

There is no, "in a way;" that is what tax cuts do. They increase disposable incomes by reducing personal current taxes.



People with more income get larger tax breaks. That shouldn't be surprising.

It was what trickle down always is : Lucy and the football. I like your avatar, though.