US Covid-19 deaths, up-date.

[Torus34]

The number of reported Covid-19 assigned deaths in the US has been below 1,000 for the past 9 days, using Worldometer(r) data. Based on the past history of the weekly 'curve' in the data, we will see at least three more days of sub-1,000 deaths. If that information contrasts with some of the alarums being raised here and there, so be it.

What this indicates is that the patchwork pattern of protocols pieced together by the states is working. Barring a change in the prophylactic procedures followed by us everyday folks, the virus is slowly, ever so slowly, being contained. If ever there was a time for us to buckle down for the long haul, this is it. At present, the data shows roughly 2.3% of the population has contracted the disease* and the mortality percent is 2.8. As has been noted time and again, these two numbers may be in error by a large amount. If we estimate the actual mortality rate to be, say, 1.1%, the number of actual, not reported, cases of infection rises to almost 16 million instead of the reported 7.5 million. As noted in the past, the US is nowhere near 'herd immunity' and that possibility can be discounted for the next 6 months, even given a vaccine.

Regards, stay safe and well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

 

[bluesmoke]

However, new cases are ticking back up again and states are reopening schools and business to some extent or with no restriction at all. Deaths lag cases by 14-18 days. That roughly correlates to the rise and fall of new cases to new deaths, which also correlates to reopening. That we've been below 1,000 daily new deaths for x number of days is nothing to jump up and down about. We should have been much closer to zero sometime in Sep as our pandemic experience is that the numbers will increase sometime in Oct going into Nov. Any downward direction is better. But our levels are terrible as it is and history, especially the 1918 pandemic, and just the experience with this virus, which we still know little about, and the effect of how we've responded indicate an unsure if not deteriorating near future. If new deaths trend up again, as our experience indicate, that would be worrisome. Stay healthy.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

​

The number of reported Covid-19 assigned deaths in the US has been below 1,000 for the past 9 days, using Worldometer(r) data. Based on the past history of the weekly 'curve' in the data, we will see at least three more days of sub-1,000 deaths. If that information contrasts with some of the alarums being raised here and there, so be it.

What this indicates is that the patchwork pattern of protocols pieced together by the states is working. Barring a change in the prophylactic procedures followed by us everyday folks, the virus is slowly, ever so slowly, being contained. If ever there was a time for us to buckle down for the long haul, this is it. At present, the data shows roughly 2.3% of the population has contracted the disease* and the mortality percent is 2.8. As has been noted time and again, these two numbers may be in error by a large amount. If we estimate the actual mortality rate to be, say, 1.1%, the number of actual, not reported, cases of infection rises to almost 16 million instead of the reported 7.5 million. As noted in the past, the US is nowhere near 'herd immunity' and that possibility can be discounted for the next 6 months, even given a vaccine.

Regards, stay safe and well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

Since 11 JUN 20 the US daily deaths have been

​

as you can see that slopes of the trend lines are still positive.

Since 20 JUN 20, the net change in the daily total for deaths from COVID-19 in the US has been an increase of 124 and the net daily change has been an increase of 1.18 deaths per day.

Using the data for closed cases (column 10 below), which are likely more accurate because counting people who might still die (i.e. those who have an active case) loads the figures

​

the US "Mortality Rate" is 4.28% (which is worse than the world average [but which is also dropping slowly]).

What is actually more pertinent is what is the chance that a person picked at random is going to die from COVID-19, and this table

​

shows that, of the developed countries the relative performance of the US is the worst. Even using the raw numbers, the closest that any of the developed countries come to the US performance is the US in which a person picked at random has only a 96.53% chance of dying from COVID-19.

 

[jpn]

Regards, stay safe and well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

We still stand out among other nations as not bending our curve much:

 

[Torus34]

We still stand out among other nations as not bending our curve much:

View attachment 67297663

Hi!

Thanks for posting the graph. The US is at least maintaining a steady rate of increase. It's when the rate of increase increases that the real problems set in, such as overwhelmed medical facilities and disruption of essential services and supplies. That the US could do better's a given. We're dealing, though, with a population which is far from homogeneous. It includes a number of folks who rebel against being told what they must do, even if it will save American lives.

Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

We still stand out among other nations as not bending our curve much:

View attachment 67297663

A very informative graph and there is also a whole lot more at your source (which you neglected to provide a link to).

Anyone interested can find it at "COVID-19 situation update worldwide, as of 3 October 2020" (but I couldn't find that exact graph [can you provide a link to it]).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Hi!

Thanks for posting the graph. The US is at least maintaining a steady rate of increase. It's when the rate of increase increases that the real problems set in, such as overwhelmed medical facilities and disruption of essential services and supplies. That the US could do better's a given. We're dealing, though, with a population which is far from homogeneous. It includes a number of folks who rebel against being told what they must do, even if it will save American lives.

Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

An interesting addition to that graph is to consider what the percentage chance a person picked at random in "Country A" has of dying from COVID-19 when compared to a person picked at random in the US. This combines "What is the chance of catching COVID-19?" and "What is the chance of dying from COVID-19 if you do catch it?". For the G-8 plus China those numbers are:

​

You will note (Column 5) that ONLY the UK is still within the "±5% of the US" window and that it is likely to be outside of that window within a week at which time a person in the US will have the highest chance of dying from COVID-19 of any person in any of the "G-8 plus China" group of countries. The fact that a person ANYWHERE else in the world will (statistically) have roughly 20% of the chance of dying from COVID-19, also says something - but I'll let you work out what that is for yourself.

 

[Torus34]

An interesting addition to that graph is to consider what the percentage chance a person picked at random in "Country A" has of dying from COVID-19 when compared to a person picked at random in the US. This combines "What is the chance of catching COVID-19?" and "What is the chance of dying from COVID-19 if you do catch it?". For the G-8 plus China those numbers are:

View attachment 67297777
​

You will note (Column 5) that ONLY the UK is still within the "±5% of the US" window and that it is likely to be outside of that window within a week at which time a person in the US will have the highest chance of dying from COVID-19 of any person in any of the "G-8 plus China" group of countries. The fact that a person ANYWHERE else in the world will (statistically) have roughly 20% of the chance of dying from COVID-19, also says something - but I'll let you work out what that is for yourself.

I am often sadly aware of the difference between reality, as expressed in actual data and statistics, and the propaganda aired on 'conservative' talk radio programs. This is particularly evident in comments regarding our medical system in the United States of America. While we [the US] do offer cutting edge services to those who can afford them, we do less well when we look at those lower down on the economic scale. Our health services [Ed.: and the ensuing medical statistics,] for the lowest 5th percentile of our population are, not to belabor the point, less than world class.

Regards, stay safe 'n well.

 

[Alfons]

The number of reported Covid-19 assigned deaths in the US has been below 1,000 for the past 9 days, using Worldometer(r) data. Based on the past history of the weekly 'curve' in the data, we will see at least three more days of sub-1,000 deaths. If that information contrasts with some of the alarums being raised here and there, so be it.

What this indicates is that the patchwork pattern of protocols pieced together by the states is working. Barring a change in the prophylactic procedures followed by us everyday folks, the virus is slowly, ever so slowly, being contained. If ever there was a time for us to buckle down for the long haul, this is it. At present, the data shows roughly 2.3% of the population has contracted the disease* and the mortality percent is 2.8. As has been noted time and again, these two numbers may be in error by a large amount. If we estimate the actual mortality rate to be, say, 1.1%, the number of actual, not reported, cases of infection rises to almost 16 million instead of the reported 7.5 million. As noted in the past, the US is nowhere near 'herd immunity' and that possibility can be discounted for the next 6 months, even given a vaccine.

Regards, stay safe and well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

What's about annual death rates of flu, they are much higher?

 

[Torus34]

What's about annual death rates of flu, they are much higher?

Hi!

Your question's unclear. Statistics on the death rates for influenza and for the Covid-19 virus are available on line. It should be noted that there is a vaccine for influenza but, as yet, there is not an approved safe and effective vaccine for the Covid-19 virus.

Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing. [Ed.: These prophylactic measures are also effective with regard to influenza.]

 

[snakestretcher]

I am often sadly aware of the difference between reality, as expressed in actual data and statistics, and the propaganda aired on 'conservative' talk radio programs. This is particularly evident in comments regarding our medical system in the United States of America. While we [the US] do offer cutting edge services to those who can afford them, we do less well when we look at those lower down on the economic scale. Our health services [Ed.: and the ensuing medical statistics,] for the lowest 5th percentile of our population are, not to belabor the point, less than world class.

Regards, stay safe 'n well.

According to the WHO the US ranks 37th in the world for overall quality of healthcare. Not very impressive considering the US spends more on healthcare, per capita, than any other country. Top performer is France with her universal socialised healthcare system.

 

[Alfons]

Hi!

Your question's unclear. Statistics on the death rates for influenza and for the Covid-19 virus are available on line. It should be noted that there is a vaccine for influenza but, as yet, there is not an approved safe and effective vaccine for the Covid-19 virus.

Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing. [Ed.: These prophylactic measures are also effective with regard to influenza.]

I do not want to harm my immune system with your great advises. You shall continuously train it, otherwise you're lost

 

[Torus34]

According to the WHO the US ranks 37th in the world for overall quality of healthcare. Not very impressive considering the US spends more on healthcare, per capita, than any other country. Top performer is France with her universal socialized healthcare system.

Yup! You got it.

One thing's certain. Any attempt to improve our [US] health care system through legislation will be met with a hue and cry of 'Socialized medicine!' from all of the usual sources.

Regards, stay safe 'n well.

 

[Torus34]

I do not want to harm my immune system with your great advises. You shall continuously train it, otherwise you're lost

Hi again.

I would be very much interested in knowing of peer-group reviewed studies which show that any of the three prophylactic measures I noted suppress the immune system.

Regards, stay safe 'n well.

 

[bluesmoke]

​

Since 11 JUN 20 the US daily deaths have been

View attachment 67297654​

as you can see that slopes of the trend lines are still positive.

Since 20 JUN 20, the net change in the daily total for deaths from COVID-19 in the US has been an increase of 124 and the net daily change has been an increase of 1.18 deaths per day.

Using the data for closed cases (column 10 below), which are likely more accurate because counting people who might still die (i.e. those who have an active case) loads the figures

View attachment 67297658​

the US "Mortality Rate" is 4.28% (which is worse than the world average [but which is also dropping slowly]).

What is actually more pertinent is what is the chance that a person picked at random is going to die from COVID-19, and this table

View attachment 67297660​

shows that, of the developed countries the relative performance of the US is the worst. Even using the raw numbers, the closest that any of the developed countries come to the US performance is the US in which a person picked at random has only a 96.53% chance of dying from COVID-19.

I keep my own figures that show similar to what is in your first exhibit. The thing is that when new cases and new deaths trend lower, that is not necessarily a good sign in the greater context when they don't bottom out low enough. Following the highest new case figures in April, as predicted by the professionals, and the highest new death figures into June, as never publicized that I saw, they are apparently bottoming out (not yet confirmed) for new cases and not rising, but not yet bottomed-out in new deaths (14-18 day lag) at figures that should be much lower to call a "bottom". We are roughly tracking the 1918 pandemic "curves" and that the bottom of new cases currently is much higher than the previous "wave" bottom and it appears will be the same with new death. Most distressing is that our response behavior is not improving significantly with states reopening schools and business with not enough states having public health safe practices, restriction/guideline, that our last disastrous "reopening". Again, pretty much as done in the 1918 pandemic. I’m seeing a floor of total death at about 460K by end of Sep 2021 (which reflects a recent bump up), with the assumption we would have an “effective” vaccine distributed by then, to a more likely 575K and a not out-of-range 795K. Keep in mind, the “effective” parameters of the vaccines in the pipeline are in the 30-50% range. So, when you hear the term “effective” used, you need know how effective for who (how many people).

 

[jpn]

(but I couldn't find that exact graph [can you provide a link to it]).

I started with this graph and then adjusted accordingly--selected various nations, checked the "per million" box, etc.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I started with this graph and then adjusted accordingly--selected various nations, checked the "per million" box, etc.

Thank you, a very useful resource.

My only problem is that I can't figure out how to copy the resulting graph.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I keep my own figures that show similar to what is in your first exhibit. The thing is that when new cases and new deaths trend lower, that is not necessarily a good sign in the greater context when they don't bottom out low enough. Following the highest new case figures in April, as predicted by the professionals, and the highest new death figures into June, as never publicized that I saw, they are apparently bottoming out (not yet confirmed) for new cases and not rising, but not yet bottomed-out in new deaths (14-18 day lag) at figures that should be much lower to call a "bottom". We are roughly tracking the 1918 pandemic "curves" and that the bottom of new cases currently is much higher than the previous "wave" bottom and it appears will be the same with new death. Most distressing is that our response behavior is not improving significantly with states reopening schools and business with not enough states having public health safe practices, restriction/guideline, that our last disastrous "reopening". Again, pretty much as done in the 1918 pandemic. I’m seeing a floor of total death at about 460K by end of Sep 2021 (which reflects a recent bump up), with the assumption we would have an “effective” vaccine distributed by then, to a more likely 575K and a not out-of-range 795K. Keep in mind, the “effective” parameters of the vaccines in the pipeline are in the 30-50% range. So, when you hear the term “effective” used, you need know how effective for who (how many people).

The US mortality rate IS going down (especially when you lump those who still have active COVID-19 and haven't yet died from it in with the "successful" category.

However, one of the factors that appears to be driving that is the incredible number of tests that are being performed. When you chart the mortality rate (and I only use the "Closed Cases" when calculating it) against the number of tests, what you get is what I call the "Mortality Index" and it looks like this

​

As you can see that index is still increasing and that means that the increase in the number of tests is not keeping up with the increase in the number of deaths.

As far as long term projections (I don't make "predictions", I just use the current data and current trends) are concerned then they look like this

​

and the one calendar year figures look like this

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I am often sadly aware of the difference between reality, as expressed in actual data and statistics, and the propaganda aired on 'conservative' talk radio programs. This is particularly evident in comments regarding our medical system in the United States of America. While we [the US] do offer cutting edge services to those who can afford them, we do less well when we look at those lower down on the economic scale. Our health services [Ed.: and the ensuing medical statistics,] for the lowest 5th percentile of our population are, not to belabor the point, less than world class.

Regards, stay safe 'n well.

EXAMINATION QUESTION

FACTS

In "Country A" there are 10 people who have "Condition X" and they wait 1week, 2 weeks, 3, weeks, 4 weeks, 5 weeks, 5 weeks, 6 weeks, 7 weeks, 8 weeks, and 9 weeks respectively for treatment.

In "Country B" there are also 10 people who have "Condition X" and they wait 1 week, 1, week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks, 4 weeks, 5 weeks, 5 weeks, 5 weeks, 5 weeks, respectively while the 10th person never gets treated at all.

100% of the people with "Condition X" die if it is not treated.

54% of the people in "Country A" who get treated for "Condition X" die despite treatment.

50% of the people in "Country B" who get treated for Condition X" die despite treatment,
​

QUESTIONS

1. What is the average time a person in "Country A" has to wait to be treated for "Condition X"?
   
   
2. What is the modal time a person in "Country A" has to wait to be treated for "Condition X"?
   
   
3. What is the average time that a person in "Country B" has to wait to be treated for "Condition X"?
   
   
4. What is the modal time a person in "Country B" has to wait to be treated for "Condition X"?
   
   
5. Is the average time that a person has to wait to be treated for "Condition X" in "Country A" longer, or shorter, than it is in "Country B"?
   
   
6. Is the modal time a person has to wait to be treated for "Condition X" in "Country A" longer, or shorter, than it is in "Country B"?
   
   
7. Is the death rate from "Condition X" in "Country A" higher, or lower, than it is in "Country B"?

 

[Good4Nothin]

The number of reported Covid-19 assigned deaths in the US has been below 1,000 for the past 9 days, using Worldometer(r) data. Based on the past history of the weekly 'curve' in the data, we will see at least three more days of sub-1,000 deaths. If that information contrasts with some of the alarums being raised here and there, so be it.

What this indicates is that the patchwork pattern of protocols pieced together by the states is working. Barring a change in the prophylactic procedures followed by us everyday folks, the virus is slowly, ever so slowly, being contained. If ever there was a time for us to buckle down for the long haul, this is it. At present, the data shows roughly 2.3% of the population has contracted the disease* and the mortality percent is 2.8. As has been noted time and again, these two numbers may be in error by a large amount. If we estimate the actual mortality rate to be, say, 1.1%, the number of actual, not reported, cases of infection rises to almost 16 million instead of the reported 7.5 million. As noted in the past, the US is nowhere near 'herd immunity' and that possibility can be discounted for the next 6 months, even given a vaccine.

Regards, stay safe and well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

The pandemic could be dying down naturally.

And notice, according to your data -- only 2.8 percent of 2.3 percent have died. That is a tiny minority of the population.

 

[jpn]

Thank you, a very useful resource.

My only problem is that I can't figure out how to copy the resulting graph.

What I do is copy the entire desktop by using "Print Screen" on the keyboard. Then paste (Ctrl-V) to Excel. Then crop it and resize so it's a bit smaller. Then paste to Microsoft Paint. Then you can export it as a JPEG or PNG file.

 

[Torus34]

EXAMINATION QUESTION

​

FACTS​

​

In "Country A" there are 10 people who have "Condition X" and they wait 1week, 2 weeks, 3, weeks, 4 weeks, 5 weeks, 5 weeks, 6 weeks, 7 weeks, 8 weeks, and 9 weeks respectively for treatment.​

​

In "Country B" there are also 10 people who have "Condition X" and they wait 1 week, 1, week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks, 4 weeks, 5 weeks, 5 weeks, 5 weeks, 5 weeks, respectively while the 10th person never gets treated at all.​

​

100% of the people with "Condition X" die if it is not treated.​

​

54% of the people in "Country A" who get treated for "Condition X" die despite treatment.​

​

50% of the people in "Country B" who get treated for Condition X" die despite treatment,​

​

QUESTIONS​

​

1. What is the average time a person in "Country A" has to wait to be treated for "Condition X"?
   
   
2. What is the modal time a person in "Country A" has to wait to be treated for "Condition X"?
   
   
3. What is the average time that a person in "Country B" has to wait to be treated for "Condition X"?
   
   
4. What is the modal time a person in "Country B" has to wait to be treated for "Condition X"?
   
   
5. Is the average time that a person has to wait to be treated for "Condition X" in "Country A" longer, or shorter, than it is in "Country B"?
   
   
6. Is the modal time a person has to wait to be treated for "Condition X" in "Country A" longer, or shorter, than it is in "Country B"?
   
   
7. Is the death rate from "Condition X" in "Country A" higher, or lower, than it is in "Country B"?

Yup! Again, when we're discussing those less fortunate economically in the US, we would not fare very well.

Regards, stay safe 'n well.

 

[Bullseye]

However, new cases are ticking back up again and states are reopening schools and business to some extent or with no restriction at all. Deaths lag cases by 14-18 days. That roughly correlates to the rise and fall of new cases to new deaths, which also correlates to reopening. That we've been below 1,000 daily new deaths for x number of days is nothing to jump up and down about. We should have been much closer to zero sometime in Sep as our pandemic experience is that the numbers will increase sometime in Oct going into Nov. Any downward direction is better. But our levels are terrible as it is and history, especially the 1918 pandemic, and just the experience with this virus, which we still know little about, and the effect of how we've responded indicate an unsure if not deteriorating near future. If new deaths trend up again, as our experience indicate, that would be worrisome. Stay healthy.

Don't most of those "openings" comprise continued masking, separations, reduced capacities, etc.?

 

[Torus34]

The pandemic could be dying down naturally.

And notice, according to your data -- only 2.8 percent of 2.3 percent have died. That is a tiny minority of the population.

Hi!

It could be, but it's not.

With respect to the deaths, the following is my Baedeker:
.
No man is an island,
Entire of itself;
Every man is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
.
If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less,
As well as if a promontory were:
As well as if a manor of thy friend's
Or of thine own were.
.
Any man's death diminishes me,
Because I am involved in mankind.
And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls;
It tolls for thee.

John Donne.

 

[Good4Nothin]

Hi!

It could be, but it's not.

With respect to the deaths, the following is my Baedeker:
.
No man is an island,
Entire of itself;
Every man is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
.
If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less,
As well as if a promontory were:
As well as if a manor of thy friend's
Or of thine own were.
.
Any man's death diminishes me,
Because I am involved in mankind.
And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls;
It tolls for thee.

John Donne.

Do you understand how many people have died because of the lockdowns? Probably a lot more than died from the virus.