Urban 'heat island' effect is only a small contributor to global warming

[Hafnium1979]

Are you claiming there isn't a clear cyclical pattern there?

No, I'm claiming you are clearly unfamiliar with the lack of value that anecdotal data provides to the discussion.

I honestly thought you knew more about this topic and science in general. Appears I was incorrect.

 

[Lord of Planar]

No, I'm claiming you are clearly unfamiliar with the lack of value that anecdotal data provides to the discussion.

I honestly thought you knew more about this topic and science in general. Appears I was incorrect.

Are you claiming the source of that graph... The national weather service... is in error? Now I crudely drew in the cycle.

 

[Hafnium1979]

Are you claiming the source of that graph... The national weather service... is in error? Now I crudely drew in the cycle.

Not even close.

I am saying anecdotal data doesn't make a case in climate science.

You really need to learn more about how science is done.

 

[longview]

...and yet I keep showing data that indicates a lower PRECIPITATION rate as well. You and Lord seem deadset on arguing against that as being part of the issue because it would be problematic for something in your imagination. I'm not sure what.

Why is it so hard to accept that climate may be in play here? Is it because it will result in real-world economic issues of significance that will cause us to have to address the problem short of just shaking our fingers at the people who live there?

I did not say precipitation was up or down!
What I said was they are using more than they are receiving!

 

[Hafnium1979]

I did not say precipitation was up or down!
What I said was they are using more than they are receiving!

-sigh-

I keep having to point out to both of you that I agree that population is an issue in the SW's water problems. BUT I am also pointing out that precipitation appears ALSO to be down and that part could be due to climate change or it could be a natural variation. The fact remains it COULD BE climate change related.

Why is this so difficult?

 

[Lord of Planar]

Not even close.

I am saying anecdotal data doesn't make a case in climate science.

You really need to learn more about how science is done.

Are you claiming science is done without data?

 

[Hafnium1979]

Are you claiming science is done without data?

Oh jeez. What part of "anecdotal" do you NOT understand? Clearly all of it.

Please learn some science. Please.

 

[Lord of Planar]

-sigh-

I keep having to point out to both of you that I agree that population is an issue in the SW's water problems. BUT I am also pointing out that precipitation appears ALSO to be down and that part could be due to climate change or it could be a natural variation. The fact remains it COULD BE climate change related.

Why is this so difficult?

Now that you elaborated without using agenda driven words. yes.

The question is how much an effect the AGW part is. It is the least significant among those three variables though.

 

[Lord of Planar]

Oh jeez. What part of "anecdotal" do you NOT understand? Clearly all of it.

Please learn some science. Please.

My question is why are you calling it anecdotal, when it is recognized data?

 

[Hafnium1979]

Are you claiming science is done without data?

Here, let me help. Below is an example of a data graph:

Note that there are a bunch of dots and a LINE. The line is the best fit for the data. But note that NOT ALL DATA POINTS FALL ON THE REGRESSION LINE!

If you were to take ONE SINGLE DATA POINT from the graph it won't tell you anything about the overall trend of the data. It's one single data point. That would be ANECDOTAL DATA.

You need more data in order to understand where the trend is.

Your post of the Tucson, AZ data represents ONE SINGLE LOCATION. In order to develop a data set that tells us about precipitation across the desert SW you would need MANY LOCATIONS.

In real climate science they take those locations and GRID AVERAGE THEM so that they can look at how a larger area is responding to changes.

This is why ANECDOTAL data isn't valuable in science.

Hope that helps!

 

[longview]

If there is less precipitation available due to the variations of climate change, then sooner or later bad things will happen.

There are many factors that can change the precipitation in an area, an overall climate change, regardless of cause is one!

 

[Hafnium1979]

Now that you elaborated without using agenda driven words. yes.

This is literally what I've been saying all the time. If you have a reading disability please accept my apologies for being curt. It just gets maddening when I say the same thing over and over and over and then FINALLY you relent and DON'T insult me for it.

The question is how much an effect the AGW part is. It is the least significant among those three variables though.

You make a positive claim here that it is the least significant. YET YOU PROVIDE ZERO EVIDENCE FOR THAT CLAIM.

You lose.

 

[Hafnium1979]

My question is why are you calling it anecdotal, when it is recognized data?

BECAUSE IT IS ONE LOCATION AND HENCE REPRESENTS ONE LOCATION ONLY.

In climate science one does NOT go with one single location to draw a conclusion. Usually the data is grid averaged.

Really, I though you knew more about all this.

 

[Lord of Planar]

This is literally what I've been saying all the time. If you have a reading disability please accept my apologies for being curt. It just gets maddening when I say the same thing over and over and over and then FINALLY you relent and DON'T insult me for it.

But that isn't the message you have been saying.

You make a positive claim here that it is the least significant. YET YOU PROVIDE ZERO EVIDENCE FOR THAT CLAIM.

You lose.

If that's what makes you sleep better at night.

We have a cyclical pattern at Tucson that varies about 5 inches. We have ground water studies that document the water table lowing, and the clear conclusion is because we are taking too much from the wells. Both of these show evidence that these two factors are greater than CO2 contributions can be.

Now don't expect me to look these up for you. If you are interested in the facts, you know how to find them. I need not waste my time rehashing arguments from the long past.

 

[Lord of Planar]

BECAUSE IT IS ONE LOCATION AND HENCE REPRESENTS ONE LOCATION ONLY.

Look at other SW cities. They follow the same cyclical pattern.

 

[Hafnium1979]

But that isn't the message you have been saying.

You are wrong.

We have a cyclical pattern at Tucson that varies about 5 inches. We have ground water studies that document the water table lowing, and the clear conclusion is because we are taking too much from the wells. Both of these show evidence that these two factors are greater than CO2 contributions can be.

You are still struggling with anecdotal data, I see. Maybe if you take more science classes in school you will better understand data and regression. I can explain it more in detail if you like.

 

[Hafnium1979]

Look at other SW cities. They follow the same cyclical pattern.

Prove it. Grid average the data, show us the ensemble. (BTW, I have little doubt there is cyclical change. That in no way makes the current drought less of a possible issue of climate.)

 

[Lord of Planar]

Prove it. Grid average the data, show us the ensemble. (BTW, I have little doubt there is cyclical change. That in no way makes the current drought less of a possible issue of climate.)

I have no intention of going out of my way for someone who has been so rigid in refusing to learn the facts. I expect you know how to use google. Type in "phoenix precipitation" for example, then select images. Do that with other SW cities. Most of these simple searches will have very similar graphs over time.

 

[longview]

-sigh-

I keep having to point out to both of you that I agree that population is an issue in the SW's water problems. BUT I am also pointing out that precipitation appears ALSO to be down and that part could be due to climate change or it could be a natural variation. The fact remains it COULD BE climate change related.

Why is this so difficult?

The climate is changing, and human activity is causing part of that, but human activity also can include overuse of available resources, land use changes, as well as the minor observed average warming.

 

[Hafnium1979]

I have no intention of going out of my way for someone who has been so rigid in refusing to learn the facts.

At least I know what "anecdotal data" is and I clearly better understand how climate analyses are done.

I expect you know how to use google. Type in "phoenix precipitation" for example, then select images. Do that with other SW cities.

It is not my claim that one single location represents a very large geographic area. That is YOUR claim.

Most of these simple searches will have very similar graphs over time.

"Very similar". So you don't understand statistical or mathematical rigor either?

Yikes.

Is there any technical aspect of science that you do have an understanding of?

 

[Lord of Planar]

It is not my claim that one single location represents a very large geographic area. That is YOUR claim.

I never made that claim. I only showed you one example. I said more exist.

This is a perfect example you you getting my argument wrong, and you expect me to waste more time on you than a few keystrokes?

Instead of accusing me of things not true, wouldn't it be better in the future if you asked me to clarify?

In accusing me instead of trying to have a honest debate, it just proves you wish to stir the pot instead of having an honest debate.

Please consider my words. I'm trying to help you here.

 

[watsup]

Are you claiming science is done without data?

You are misrepresenting what he said.

 

[Hafnium1979]

I never made that claim. I only showed you one example. I said more exist.

This is a perfect example you you getting my argument wrong, and you expect me to waste more time on you than a few keystrokes?

Instead of accusing me of things not true, wouldn't it be better in the future if you asked me to clarify?

In accusing me instead of trying to have a honest debate, it just proves you wish to stir the pot instead of having an honest debate.

Please consider my words. I'm trying to help you here.

Learn what anecdotal data is. Then you can hold forth on climate

 

[Lord of Planar]

You are misrepresenting what he said.

Do you know what a question mark is?

 

[Lord of Planar]

Learn what anecdotal data is. Then you can hold forth on climate

I know what it is. Your suggesting that is what I am using, is wrong.