Unemployment To Begin Dropping Soon

[phattonez]

Not in and of itself.

Production does not beget production. What do people do then with everything that they produce? People just produce things for self-consumption and we're all subsistence farmers?

 

[phattonez]

Yep, FDR also failed, until the gov HAD to significantly increase spending to fuel the war machine. When they did increase spending ENOUGH, our economy recovered.

Not exactly. WWII was a horrible economic time. Rationing, price controls, etc. There was no recovery during this time for the average person. Macroeconomic indicators looked good, but I've pointed out many times their flaws, and this is the exact time when their flaws come out. In fact, we did not see a recovery until after the war when regulations were finally relaxed and the government allowed the country to experience a real recovery.

 

[phattonez]

Common Sense tell us that : Of course it has a direct bearing on the situation and the robot machines that are replacing men has a better chance of filling the jobs opening that are available before a human being....

Who would have thought 60 years ago that man would be face to face on the factory floors, competing against a robot for a job.. If intelligent people would use their heads for something more than a hat, they would all know what happened to the jobs that's still available and has not been shipped away to some Foreign Land...

The Luddites.

Luddite fallacy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[phattonez]

The automobile placed many people out of production who were horse and buggy operators and producers. Were their jobs lost permanently? In the horse and buggy industry, yes. But did the production of the automobile create other jobs? Of course. Someone needs to make those things. Someone needs to make accessories for those things. Someone needs to operate the businesses that are now practical because of the production of the automobile.

So why does this principle not hold for everything else apparently? Production creates production, why is this so hard to believe?

 

[Simon W. Moon]

Production does not beget production. What do people do then with everything that they produce? People just produce things for self-consumption and we're all subsistence farmers?

What happened to the businesses who produced a lot of Betamax tapes? Would producing more Betamax tapes enable them to produce more Betamax tapes? Or does it take something more than just production to grow a business?

 

[Simon W. Moon]

The point still stands that the lack of jobs has bearing on job seekers ability to find jobs. Adding incentive to job seekers to find jobs is insufficient to create jobs.
Instead there needs to be incentives to create jobs to create jobs.

 

[imagep]

But it's all artificial and all you've done is created another bubble. Great, you'll just create more misery a few more years down the line. To get steady growth, cut taxes permanently, end unemployment benefits, and end inflation. You'll see a real, permanent recovery based on increased production of succeeding businesses.

Exactly what does "artificial" mean?

I think that you missed my point that after the economic engine has been jump started that we should cut taxes, and end unemployement benefits. I would even suggest ending all entitlements and totally doing away with payroll taxes.

Right now, in this particular economy, our private enterprises are doing NOTHING to create jobs. There just simply isn't enough consumption by the middle class and even the rich to create enough sales for businesses to be able to increase production, and without an increase in production we won't have new jobs created. Our economy may be bottomed out, and a few new jobs are being created, but new jobs arn't being created as fast as our population is growing, so we are still, for practical purposes, declining. If the economy was actually recovering I would suggest that you were correct.

We would still have to work out a way to eleminate the fed debt and eventually significantly reduce the deficit. Even if we slash gov spending, eleminating the debt is going to be difficult while we are cutting taxes at the same time.

 

[imagep]

The point still stands that the lack of jobs has bearing on job seekers ability to find jobs. Adding incentive to job seekers to find jobs is insufficient to create jobs.
Instead there needs to be incentives to create jobs to create jobs.

Other than an increase in sales, is there any other incentive possible to create jobs? Would businesses hire more people than they need to meet current sales levels if they had tax incentives or other governmental incentives?

 

[Simon W. Moon]

Other than an increase in sales, is there any other incentive possible to create jobs? Would businesses hire more people than they need to meet current sales levels if they had tax incentives or other governmental incentives?

Idk what the exact environment is. From what I have seen we've been growing GDP for a number of quarters, last quarter has been described as record breaking in some respects, loans, (if a little harder to come by), are relatively cheap at the moment. Based on that I don't think it's as much a matter of not being able to afford hiring more people as it is prob'ly a matter of not needing to hire more people. I am sure that some businesses would hire some more people if it were a little cheaper--it sure wouldn't hurt the chances of them doing so. But, for businesses nationwide to want to hire more people, I suspect that an increase in sales would be needed.

I am open to seeing data that would change my mind. For instance if it were revealed that businesses actually were short on the ability to afford more workers despite desiring to do so.

 

[imagep]

Idk what the exact environment is. From what I have seen we've been growing GDP for a number of quarters, last quarter has been described as record breaking in some respects, loans, (if a little harder to come by), are relatively cheap at the moment. Based on that I don't think it's as much a matter of not being able to afford hiring more people as it is prob'ly a matter of not needing to hire more people. I am sure that some businesses would hire some more people if it were a little cheaper--it sure wouldn't hurt the chances of them doing so. But, for businesses nationwide to want to hire more people, I suspect that an increase in sales would be needed.

I am open to seeing data that would change my mind. For instance if it were revealed that businesses actually were short on the ability to afford more workers despite desiring to do so.

Same here.

In my particular situation, I would love to have an increase in sales so that I could hire more people. As it is right now, I am using 2010 figures for my 2011 sales projections, and based on that, I can not afford to hire more workers and I really don't have the production need to do so. Without the need to increase production (more orders), even if I had the money to hire more people, I wouldn't do so. Why would I want to waste my money hiring people that I don't need.

Our local unemployment rate dropped in October, maybe that is a good sign for me, even though nationally unemployment rate went up in Nov. What I really need is consumer confidence to improve so that my customers will buy more stuff.

 

[phattonez]

What happened to the businesses who produced a lot of Betamax tapes? Would producing more Betamax tapes enable them to produce more Betamax tapes? Or does it take something more than just production to grow a business?

I guess I have to expand on the idea when I thought it would be obvious. Valuable production begets production.

 

[phattonez]

Exactly what does "artificial" mean?

It means when people realize that they weren't trading for the full value that they thought they were (when artificial demand is realized), the bubble will burst.

I think that you missed my point that after the economic engine has been jump started that we should cut taxes, and end unemployement benefits. I would even suggest ending all entitlements and totally doing away with payroll taxes.

But you will have already created a bubble with that artificial demand.

Right now, in this particular economy, our private enterprises are doing NOTHING to create jobs. There just simply isn't enough consumption by the middle class and even the rich to create enough sales for businesses to be able to increase production, and without an increase in production we won't have new jobs created. Our economy may be bottomed out, and a few new jobs are being created, but new jobs arn't being created as fast as our population is growing, so we are still, for practical purposes, declining. If the economy was actually recovering I would suggest that you were correct.

Businesses are profiting, but they're not expanding. I think I've already explained why this is.

We would still have to work out a way to eleminate the fed debt and eventually significantly reduce the deficit. Even if we slash gov spending, eleminating the debt is going to be difficult while we are cutting taxes at the same time.

Interest on that debt is not the biggest part of the budget. Look at where our money is really going.

Do you think if we cut money to social services that we'd have some money to pay down the debt?

 

[Simon W. Moon]

I guess I have to expand on the idea when I thought it would be obvious. Valuable production begets production.

It's also obvious that production in and of itself doesn't do much. There are other elements that must be present. One could assume that by valuable, you mean in demand. in that case, demand must also be present. Production w/o demand isn't going to go far. increasing production w/o demand isn't very business wise.

 

[phattonez]

It's also obvious that production in and of itself doesn't do much. There are other elements that must be present. One could assume that by valuable, you mean in demand. in that case, demand must also be present. Production w/o demand isn't going to go far. increasing production w/o demand isn't very business wise.

People are always demanding. We are nowhere near a theoretical state of rest. Just produce what someone else wants, and if he really wants it, he'll produce what you want. This is how an economy works.

 

[Diogenes]

Right now, in this particular economy, our private enterprises are doing NOTHING to create jobs. There just simply isn't enough consumption by the middle class and even the rich to create enough sales for businesses to be able to increase production, and without an increase in production we won't have new jobs created. Our economy may be bottomed out, and a few new jobs are being created, but new jobs arn't being created as fast as our population is growing, so we are still, for practical purposes, declining. If the economy was actually recovering I would suggest that you were correct.

That's true as far as it goes, but is by no means the whole story. If you ask why consumption is down, you might discover that energy prices are up (largely because of environmental restrictions) and food prices are up (partly because of a foolish ethanol subsidy and partly because of higher transportation costs) - both food and energy prices are left out of the "core inflation" measures - and that leaves consumers with less money to spend on dining out and renting movies. Combined with uncertainty about the future and the need to cut back on consumption before the greatest tax increase in US history kicks in next month, or whenever the Dems can push it through, it's not surprising that any citizen paying attention can see the rainy day coming and is reluctant to go out on a financial limb.

On the production side no company with employees can be sure what those employees will cost in two or three years, no company can predict what its regulatory compliance costs will be (particularly under Obama's unsupervised czars), or what the financing climate will be, and the tax environment is up in the air. Coupled with uncertain demand predictions, it's pretty tough to formulate a business plan to take to the bank or justify raiding your own stash of gold coins.

We would still have to work out a way to eleminate the fed debt and eventually significantly reduce the deficit. Even if we slash gov spending, eleminating the debt is going to be difficult while we are cutting taxes at the same time.

Eliminating the deficit and eventually reducing the debt will not be possible as long as the government tries to be all things to all people. All the way back to Kennedy, the congressional track record is to spend $1.50 or more for every new dollar in revenue. More revenue to congress is like another bottle to a wino; gone in an instant and only creating a demand for more. The ONLY solution is to cut back on government ambitions and spending.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

People are always demanding. We are nowhere near a theoretical state of rest. Just produce what someone else wants, and if he really wants it, he'll produce what you want. This is how an economy works.

You keep referencing theory instead of actuality. theory is nice in it's place. But it's real value is in how it applies to practice. In practice, businesses don't want to produce more than demand.

In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is.

 

[phattonez]

You keep referencing theory instead of actuality. theory is nice in it's place. But it's real value is in how it applies to practice. In practice, businesses don't want to produce more than demand.

In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is.

Businesses are profiting, why aren't they expanding?

 

[Simon W. Moon]

Businesses are profiting, why aren't they expanding?

Most likely because it doesn't seem profitable to do so. I expect that they are expanding in some ways though.

 

[Minnie T. Mouse]

AHH PLEASE, Let's Stop the Bla Bla Bla and the Nib Bits and get to the Meat and Patotoes of Why and What are the reasons for this Economy Melt-Down and Why There are No Jobs being Created.... Lots of Bla Bla Bla on this site but so few answers ... Here are a few hints for the Smart Ones to get a clue about the " What and Why ".

- Two Costly Wars in the Middle East !!!
- U.S.A. Jobs sent to China and other Foreign Lands !!!
- Taxs Cuts for the Super Rich, 2% of the Nation !!!
- Corruption and Greed by the Fat Cats and their Political Allies !!!
- Wasteful Spending in Every Corner of the U.S.A. and the World !!!
- American Dollars in Off Shores Banks, Stored Around The World !!!

- MADE IN AMERICA... BUILD IN AMERICA !!!

- And The List Goes On And On And On..... Need I say More, THE QUESTION NOW IS , WHAT ARE WE THE PEOPLE GOING TO DO ABOUT THE PROBLEM ????

 

[imagep]

Businesses are profiting, why aren't they expanding?

Because they already have enough production capability to meet their sales level. Why would a profitable business risk it's profitability by expanding beyond their capability to sell products? I know that I wouldn't do that.

Even if we had a sudden uptick in sales, I wouldn't need any more capital to expand, I already have plenty of equipment and facility and inventory to produce additional goods, all I would need to do it to hire. Hiring does not require signficant financial investment.

 

[imagep]

AHH PLEASE, Let's Stop the Bla Bla Bla and the Nib Bits and get to the Meat and Patotoes of Why and What are the reasons for this Economy Melt-Down and Why There are No Jobs being Created.... Lots of Bla Bla Bla on this site but so few answers ... Here are a few hints for the Smart Ones to get a clue about the " What and Why ".

- Two Costly Wars in the Middle East !!!
- U.S.A. Jobs sent to China and other Foreign Lands !!!
- Taxs Cuts for the Super Rich, 2% of the Nation !!!
- Corruption and Greed by the Fat Cats and their Political Allies !!!
- Wasteful Spending in Every Corner of the U.S.A. and the World !!!
- American Dollars in Off Shores Banks, Stored Around The World !!!

- MADE IN AMERICA... BUILD IN AMERICA !!!

- And The List Goes On And On And On..... Need I say More, THE QUESTION NOW IS , WHAT ARE WE THE PEOPLE GOING TO DO ABOUT THE PROBLEM ????

Duddn look like we gonna do anything 'bout it.

 

[phattonez]

Most likely because it doesn't seem profitable to do so. I expect that they are expanding in some ways though.

Economies of scale. Things would be cheaper if they would expand, so why aren't they taking the risk?

 

[phattonez]

Because they already have enough production capability to meet their sales level. Why would a profitable business risk it's profitability by expanding beyond their capability to sell products? I know that I wouldn't do that.

Because competition pushes prices lower. You want your unit cost to be as low as possible. Investment allows that. So why are people so scared to invest? I think I've shown you many times.

Even if we had a sudden uptick in sales, I wouldn't need any more capital to expand, I already have plenty of equipment and facility and inventory to produce additional goods, all I would need to do it to hire. Hiring does not require signficant financial investment.

You can't judge the entire economy based on your own business. You may be over-expanded. However, other companies certainly are not as they are making great profits.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

Economies of scale. Things would be cheaper if they would expand, so why aren't they taking the risk?

I would guess because they have something else profitable to do with the money that doesn't involve as much risk.
It prob'ly varies case by case.
But if, as has been suggested in this thread, demand is down, it doesn't make sense to make even more even if it would means that each unit would be made for less. Having a more units that don't sell is less profitable than some other things businesses could be doing with the money. It represents a large opportunity cost.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

Because competition pushes prices lower. You want your unit cost to be as low as possible. Investment allows that. So why are people so scared to invest?

because demand is down.

I think I've shown you many times.

You have stated your theories. Thats different than showing what's actually going on.