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Unemployment To Begin Dropping Soon

This whole long post didn't even answer the question.

"But imagine with me for a moment. Say all of those positions suddenly get filled. Are you going to argue that no new positions open as a result?"
These positions will be filled. They aren't the same millions of jobs each month. The rate of job acquisition has to exceed the rate of job loss before the unemployment rate will improve.

Jobs are getting filled all the time
 
These positions will be filled. They aren't the same millions of jobs each month. The rate of job acquisition has to exceed the rate of job loss before the unemployment rate will improve.

Jobs are getting filled all the time

Why won't you answer my question? Does production beget production?
 
Also, what impact does the ratio of job seekers to jobs available have on American ability to find work? Any?
you're assuming that all job seekers are equal.
That statistic does not require any such assumption. It's just raw totals.
actually it does; you are holding on to a meaningless number.
Please demonstrate that the ratio of job seekers to job opening requires any such assumption.
 
I do know, however, that artificially propping up demand won't help you in the long run because that method will only effectively trick you into accepting lower "value" than you would have otherwise (because of long-term effects of debt, inflation, etc.).

Don't you think that this will create the same boom and bust cycle that we are currently experiencing all over again?

I see it more as a jump start. The battery is dead, it needs a little help to crank the engine, once the engine is cranked, the battery will recharge.

The economy sucks, people arn't spending because the have no money (jobs), they arn't producing because they have no jobs. Artificially create jobs by increasing business sales by putting money into the pockets of consumers, people will have more money, that money will turn their desire for stuff into actual sales, businesses will keep the artificially and temporarally created jobs because they have more sales and thus the economic incentive of profit to hire more people because sales are up. Once an increase in sales has created this incentive, then the artificial part (government intervention) can end and our private sector economy grows on it's own.
 
Please demonstrate that the ratio of job seekers to job opening requires any such assumption.

because you are treating them equally. how many job seekers per current job opening has at least two fallacious assumptions. the first, which phatz has already pointed out to you, is that job creation tends to begat job creation; that profit is ruthlessly reinvested back into investment. the second, which I have attempted to point out to you, is that it assumes all job seekers are equally and actually interested in the job being offered.

for example, if I formerly made $55,000, and have 2 kids, then my monthly benefit for not working is now $2,400. Add to that my WIC, Food Stamps, and everything else that is available and it isn't that unlivable. Why would I trade this in for a job that provides only 3,000 a month ($36,000 a year). my incentive is exceedingly weak. however, I have to prove that I have applied for multiple jobs in order to keep my benefits flowing. So i apply for the 3 grand a month job; but my incentive is weak to accept it.
 
I see it more as a jump start. The battery is dead, it needs a little help to crank the engine, once the engine is cranked, the battery will recharge.

yeah, that was what Bush promised us back in 2008. "jump-start the economy" via stimulative spending designed to keep demand artificially high.

and then it was what Obama promised us in 2009. "Stimulate the economy" via spending designed to keep demand artificially high.

and the Fed tried to do the same through multiple bouts of quantitative easing (printing money); theorizing that if they put more money into circulation, people would spend more, and they could keep demand artificially high.....


it's the same thing that FDR tried to do for years and years, the same thing that the Japanese tried to do for most of a decade. all it actually does is slow or forestall recovery; if not make the problem worse.

The economy sucks, people arn't spending because the have no money (jobs), they arn't producing because they have no jobs. Artificially create jobs by increasing business sales by putting money into the pockets of consumers, people will have more money, that money will turn their desire for stuff into actual sales, businesses will keep the artificially and temporarally created jobs because they have more sales and thus the economic incentive of profit to hire more people because sales are up. Once an increase in sales has created this incentive, then the artificial part (government intervention) can end and our private sector economy grows on it's own.

what you have described here is a deliberate attempt to reinflate a bubble.
 
So i apply for the 3 grand a month job; but my incentive is weak to accept it.


Very true, exactly the reason that I am against further unemployment extentions. But at the same time it is not the reason for unemployment being high. And although one person may not have much incentive to accept that $3k job, to another equally as qualified person, that may be a small fortune.

If it gets to the point where there are more unfilled job openings than people looking for work, then I am quite certain that we can blaim unemployment benefits on that occuring.
 
yeah, that was what Bush promised us back in 2008. "jump-start the economy" via stimulative spending designed to keep demand artificially high.

and then it was what Obama promised us in 2009. "Stimulate the economy" via spending designed to keep demand artificially high.

Thats my point, neither Bush or Obama did what it would have taken. They spent enough money to do it, but they didn't directly distribute enough money or create enough infrastrure rebuilding type jobs. Most of the Spendulous went to stuff like "alternative energy research" which created no jobs because no additional researchers were hired - the money just went into the pockets of the wealthy. The wealthy have not exactly been big job creators during the past couple of years.

The day that the Spendulous bill passed, I was eating in a Mcd's, watching the Prez make the annoucement on TV. He had an alternative energy guy speak, they guy explained how this was the greatest country and how alternative energy investment was so important. The entire time I was thinking, "yea, I'd be saying the exact same thing if I was the one who was going to get all that money". I saw on the news last week that that guy did not produce a single job, as a matter of fact he was shutting down two of his three plants.

and the Fed tried to do the same through multiple bouts of quantitative easing (printing money); theorizing that if they put more money into circulation, people would spend more, and they could keep demand artificially high.....

Basically, what the Fed did was an extention of the same failed Bush and Obama policy of creating or spending money without distributing it to the consumer. It really doesn't matter how much cash banks have on hand, if the job market is shaky, banks aren't gonna lend because everyone is a bad risk. Unless that QE/QE2 money somehow got distributed to the consumer class, it was doomed from the begining.

it's the same thing that FDR tried to do for years and years, the same thing that the Japanese tried to do for most of a decade. all it actually does is slow or forestall recovery; if not make the problem worse.

Yep, FDR also failed, until the gov HAD to significantly increase spending to fuel the war machine. When they did increase spending ENOUGH, our economy recovered.


what you have described here is a deliberate attempt to reinflate a bubble.

History may find that the alternative to reinflating our economy is a decade of economic misery. We are almost already a third of the way there!
 
because you are treating them equally. how many job seekers per current job opening has at least two fallacious assumptions. the first, which phatz has already pointed out to you, is that job creation tends to begat job creation;
Be that as it may, the number of jobs that have been created at the moment is less than the number of job seekers. I am sure that will change at some point. But that's not the situation as it exists now.

that profit is ruthlessly reinvested back into investment.
Which may or may not include hiring more people depending on the business climate. Which brings us back to where we were in which we examine the current climate. In the current climate the number of people businesses are trying to hire is less than the number of people looking for jobs.
Again, we're talking about how things actually are, not what you project they will be at some indefinite point in the future.

the second, which I have attempted to point out to you, is that it assumes all job seekers are equally and actually interested in the job being offered.
I have asked you to demonstrate that people refusing work is the reason why the unemployment rate is so high. Repeating your assertion is not the same as providing evidence.
 
imagep said:
but they didn't directly distribute enough money

That sounds as if you are in favor simply giving everybody some money, directly. Carter tried that; didn't work.

imagep said:
I saw on the news last week that that guy did not produce a single job, as a matter of fact he was shutting down two of his three plants.

Not familiar with that particular instance, but over the years, several large investments in alternative energy haven't worked out mainly because there were no or insufficient buyers for the products. Which of course, relates to your oft-stated position about having customers to drive sales to drive production etc. You seem to criticizing this guy for trying to do what you said to do?

But, like I said, I'm not familiar with that particular instance. But I am aware of some success stories regarding the stimulus. Instances where the stimulus money permitted a couple of small companies to purchase enough equipment and hire enough people to successfully bid on, and win, some contracts that would they would never have had a chance on without the funding. Small, private companies that never made the headlines. Sadly, there don't seem to have been very many success stories.
 
That sounds as if you are in favor simply giving everybody some money, directly. Carter tried that; didn't work.

I am not in favor of it, the idea disgusts me, but it is likely the most effective thing that the government can do to improve the economy. I don't know anything about Carter doing it, but when Bush did it the amount was so small that it was ineffective at creating the "jump start" effect.

If we would have instead of sending out $400 checks, used the TARP and Spendulous and various baleout money we could have sent out checks to every citizen for about $4,000 each. That would be $16k for a family of four to spend as they see fit. Generally, individuals spend money in the most effective manner, at least much more so that the gov does. You can't tell me that a typical family wouldn't have used that money to save their house from foreclosure, or as a down payment to purchase a new one, or to purchase a car or other "stuff" that would have resulted in the creation of new jobs. Even if some of those families just used that money to reduce their debt, for every four or five families a new job would have been created. Individuals who would have otherwise been unemployed would likely to have continued spending at a normal pace, essentially insuring that employers had enough sales to expand and to hire and to avoid layoffs.

The small checks that Bush sent out simply were not large enough to jump start our economy. I could try to jump start my car off a AA battery, but wouldn't that pretty much be a waste of effort? However I know that if I hooked up to a big battery, my car would jump start instantly. We know what will work, and we know what won't work, so why not just do what will work to begin with?

You seem to criticizing this guy for trying to do what you said to do?

No, I am criticizing the government for giving money to private companies to do research into products that are not economically viable.

But I am aware of some success stories regarding the stimulus. Instances where the stimulus money permitted a couple of small companies to purchase enough equipment and hire enough people to successfully bid on, and win, some contracts that would they would never have had a chance on without the funding. Small, private companies that never made the headlines. Sadly, there don't seem to have been very many success stories.

I have heard of some sign companies that made a bundle creating signs for road construction, other than that, like you, I really haven't heard of many sucess stories. Even that didn't work out too well because after the gov purchased all the signs they needed, the work dried up and employees were laid off.

Of course that is why I am suggesting that allowing consumers to create jobs by allowing them to directly spend the spendulous money would have been a more effective use of that money than the way it was spent.
 
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Thats my point, neither Bush or Obama did what it would have taken. They spent enough money to do it, but they didn't directly distribute enough money or create enough infrastrure rebuilding type jobs.

1. what is so awesome about construction jobs that everyone insists we must have more of them in particular?

2. Obama's stimulus spent massive amounts of money in transportation; agreed that it also spent massive amounts in pork, but the two are also often interchangeable. Bush's stimulus sent the money directly to people so that they could spend it (demand). SO, both tried Keynesian stimulus in manners approved of by Keynes, and it worked no better than it has in the past.

Basically, what the Fed did was an extention of the same failed Bush and Obama policy of creating or spending money without distributing it to the consumer.

that was, in fact, exactly what Bush's "stimulus" consisted of. sending money directly to the consumer.

It really doesn't matter how much cash banks have on hand, if the job market is shaky, banks aren't gonna lend because everyone is a bad risk.

on the contrary, it is our political system that is currently making risk default 'bad'; simply because the most important variable is unpredictable.

Unless that QE/QE2 money somehow got distributed to the consumer class, it was doomed from the begining.

the consumer is overrated. now don't give me that "70% of our economy!" junk; i know that, that is part of the problem.

Yep, FDR also failed, until the gov HAD to significantly increase spending to fuel the war machine. When they did increase spending ENOUGH, our economy recovered.

wrong; our economy didn't fully recover until the 50's. people who think that WWII somehow magically got us out of the Depression forget that 1. a massive draft isn't exactly a 'solution' to unemployment any more than enslavement is and 2. the economic condition of the American populace during WWII was worse than it was during the Great Depression. everything from rubber, to eggs, to automobiles, and so forth was strictly rationed and in limited supply.

History may find that the alternative to reinflating our economy is a decade of economic misery. We are almost already a third of the way there!

history demonstrates no such thing. in fact, History seems to repeatedly demonstrate that attempts to "jump start" the economy inevitably fail, causing more economic pain. that decade of economic misery? caused not by market crashes, but by government attempts to respond to market crashes by papering over them with artificial demand.

Here. Have some fun reading up on some history ;) :

Which U.S. president ranks as America’s greatest depression fighter?

Not the fabled Franklin Delano Roosevelt, since unemployment averaged 17 percent through the New Deal period (1933–1940). What banished high unemployment was the conscription of 12 million men into the armed forces during World War II. FDR actually prolonged high unemployment: he tripled taxes; he signed laws that made it more expensive for employers to hire people, made discounting illegal, and authorized the destruction of food; and he launched costly infrastructure projects like the Tennessee Valley Authority that became a drag on states receiving TVA-subsidized electricity.

America’s greatest depression fighter was Warren Gamaliel Harding. An Ohio senator when he was elected president in 1920, he followed the much praised Woodrow Wilson — who had brought America into World War I, built up huge federal bureaucracies, imprisoned dissenters, and incurred $25 billion of debt.

Harding inherited Wilson’s mess — in particular, a post–World War I depression that was almost as severe, from peak to trough, as the Great Contraction from 1929 to 1933 that FDR would later inherit. The estimated gross national product plunged 24 percent from $91.5 billion in 1920 to $69.6 billion in 1921. The number of unemployed people jumped from 2.1 million to 4.9 million...

Harding’s Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover wanted government intervention in the economy — which as president he was to pursue when he faced the Great Depression a decade later — but Harding would have none of it. He insisted that relief measures were a local responsibility.

Federal spending was cut from $6.3 billion in 1920 to $5 billion in 1921 and $3.2 billion in 1922. Federal taxes fell from $6.6 billion in 1920 to $5.5 billion in 1921 and $4 billion in 1922. Harding’s policies started a trend. The low point for federal taxes was reached in 1924; for federal spending, in1925. The federal government paid off debt, which had been $24.2 billion in 1920, and it continued to decline until 1930...

With Harding’s tax and spending cuts and relatively non-interventionist economic policy, GNP rebounded to $74.1 billion in 1922. The number of unemployed fell to 2.8 million — a reported 6.7 percent of the labor force — in 1922. So, just a year and a half after Harding became president, the Roaring 20s were underway. The unemployment rate continued to decline, reaching an extraordinary low of 1.8 percent in 1926. Since then, the unemployment rate has been lower only once in wartime (1944), and never in peacetime.

The Roaring 20s were a time of unprecedented prosperity. GNP expanded year after year without inflation. Productivity improved, and real wages increased. The stock market tripled. There was a dramatic expansion of the middle class. The Great Migration occurred during the 1920s, with some 7 million African-Americans moving north for better schools and job opportunities. Women had the vote. Millions of Americans began to buy cars, originally a luxury of the rich. People bought radios that enabled ordinary people to hear the finest entertainers in their own homes. Movies became popular. Frozen food made possible a more varied diet year-round. Doctors developed new medicines to fight deadly diseases like diphtheria and tuberculosis...
 
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Be that as it may, the number of jobs that have been created at the moment is less than the number of job seekers. I am sure that will change at some point. But that's not the situation as it exists now.

wow. keen insight. is the DOW lower than it was in late 2007 as well?

Which may or may not include hiring more people depending on the business climate.

inevitably eventually it does. the multiplier effect does exist; it's just that it's strongest in private investment and weakest in government investment.

Which brings us back to where we were in which we examine the current climate. In the current climate the number of people businesses are trying to hire is less than the number of people looking for jobs.
Again, we're talking about how things actually are, not what you project they will be at some indefinite point in the future.

actually what we are talking about is how to get to that point in the future. a key chunk of which is to get these people producing again by altering the incentive structure to encourage them to take any employment, even if it does compensate them less.

I have asked you to demonstrate that people refusing work is the reason why the unemployment rate is so high. Repeating your assertion is not the same as providing evidence.

:shrug: i've shown you the numbers. I frankly could probably almost replace my income were i to become unemployed right now; especially once you figured the lower expenses (gas, clothing, etc.) that would come with not having to perform the tasks of employment. the incentive structure is what it is, and no amount of you continuing to "demand the evidence" will change that. what, you want me to take you on a magical journey into people's minds?
 
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1. what is so awesome about construction jobs that everyone insists we must have more of them in particular?

Auuu...without them we wouldn't have buildings or roads (upwards inflection of my voice)?

2. Obama's stimulus spent massive amounts of money in transportation; agreed that it also spent massive amounts in pork, but the two are also often interchangeable. Bush's stimulus sent the money directly to people so that they could spend it (demand). SO, both tried Keynesian stimulus in manners approved of by Keynes, and it worked no better than it has in the past.

It wasn't big enough. By the way, it worked very well to get us out of the great depression after WW2 started.


that was, in fact, exactly what Bush's "stimulus" consisted of. sending money directly to the consumer.

Ya, and once again, it was trying to jumpstart a tractor with a 2A battery. The checks should have been for thousands of dollars, not for hundreds.

on the contrary, it is our political system that is currently making risk default 'bad'; simply because the most important variable is unpredictable.

So whats the "most important variable"? I always figure it is profit.


wrong; our economy didn't fully recover until the 50's. people who think that WWII somehow magically got us out of the Depression forget that 1. a massive draft isn't exactly a 'solution' to unemployment any more than enslavement is and 2. the economic condition of the American populace during WWII was worse than it was during the Great Depression. everything from rubber, to eggs, to automobiles, and so forth was strictly rationed and in limited supply.

Your ignoring the fact that not only did the unemployment rate go down, but the employment rate went up. And it went up more than the number of new wartime production jobs. Overall production increased and even when you subtract out for production that was used in the war effort, production still increased.


history demonstrates no such thing. in fact, History seems to repeatedly demonstrate that attempts to "jump start" the economy inevitably fail, causing more economic pain. that decade of economic misery? caused not by market crashes, but by government attempts to respond to market crashes by papering over them with artificial demand.

We will just have to disagree on that. Obviously when I read the history books I get something totally different out of them.

Here. Have some fun reading up on some history ;) :

Which U.S. president ranks as America’s greatest depression fighter?

Not the fabled Franklin Delano Roosevelt, since unemployment averaged 17 percent through the New Deal period (1933–1940). What banished high unemployment was the conscription of 12 million men into the armed forces during World War II. FDR actually prolonged high unemployment: he tripled taxes; he signed laws that made it more expensive for employers to hire people, made discounting illegal, and authorized the destruction of food; and he launched costly infrastructure projects like the Tennessee Valley Authority that became a drag on states receiving TVA-subsidized electricity.

America’s greatest depression fighter was Warren Gamaliel Harding. An Ohio senator when he was elected president in 1920, he followed the much praised Woodrow Wilson — who had brought America into World War I, built up huge federal bureaucracies, imprisoned dissenters, and incurred $25 billion of debt.

Harding inherited Wilson’s mess — in particular, a post–World War I depression that was almost as severe, from peak to trough, as the Great Contraction from 1929 to 1933 that FDR would later inherit. The estimated gross national product plunged 24 percent from $91.5 billion in 1920 to $69.6 billion in 1921. The number of unemployed people jumped from 2.1 million to 4.9 million...

Harding’s Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover wanted government intervention in the economy — which as president he was to pursue when he faced the Great Depression a decade later — but Harding would have none of it. He insisted that relief measures were a local responsibility.

Federal spending was cut from $6.3 billion in 1920 to $5 billion in 1921 and $3.2 billion in 1922. Federal taxes fell from $6.6 billion in 1920 to $5.5 billion in 1921 and $4 billion in 1922. Harding’s policies started a trend. The low point for federal taxes was reached in 1924; for federal spending, in1925. The federal government paid off debt, which had been $24.2 billion in 1920, and it continued to decline until 1930...

With Harding’s tax and spending cuts and relatively non-interventionist economic policy, GNP rebounded to $74.1 billion in 1922. The number of unemployed fell to 2.8 million — a reported 6.7 percent of the labor force — in 1922. So, just a year and a half after Harding became president, the Roaring 20s were underway. The unemployment rate continued to decline, reaching an extraordinary low of 1.8 percent in 1926. Since then, the unemployment rate has been lower only once in wartime (1944), and never in peacetime.

The Roaring 20s were a time of unprecedented prosperity. GNP expanded year after year without inflation. Productivity improved, and real wages increased. The stock market tripled. There was a dramatic expansion of the middle class. The Great Migration occurred during the 1920s, with some 7 million African-Americans moving north for better schools and job opportunities. Women had the vote. Millions of Americans began to buy cars, originally a luxury of the rich. People bought radios that enabled ordinary people to hear the finest entertainers in their own homes. Movies became popular. Frozen food made possible a more varied diet year-round. Doctors developed new medicines to fight deadly diseases like diphtheria and tuberculosis...

I've read accounts of the same time period that have interpreted the facts quite differently. Our interpretation of history all depends on what we want to prove.
 
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wow. keen insight. is the DOW lower than it was in late 2007 as well?
Do you think that the ratio of job seekers to jobs has anything to do with our unemployment rate?
actually what we are talking about is how to get to that point in the future. a key chunk of which is to get these people producing again by altering the incentive structure to encourage them to take any employment, even if it does compensate them less.
W/o jobs for them to take, motivation is moot.
:shrug: i've shown you the numbers. I frankly could probably almost replace my income were i to become unemployed right now; especially once you figured the lower expenses (gas, clothing, etc.) that would come with not having to perform the tasks of employment. the incentive structure is what it is, and no amount of you continuing to "demand the evidence" will change that. what, you want me to take you on a magical journey into people's minds?
You could show that people were actually doing it.
Speculating that people might do something is markedly different than the people actually doing it.
The BLS breaks things down by industry and education. See if you can find evidence that people are refusing jobs. Or perhaps you'll find that people with education actually ARE taking jobs that are less than what they were educated for. And as a result, the "less qualified" are getting bumped out of what would be 'their' job market in normal times.
Again, facts and actuality trump armchair theorizing.
 
Auuu...without them we wouldn't have buildings or roads (upwards inflection of my voice)?

yeah, and without truckers we wouldn't have food. and without policemen we wouldn't have safety. and without dockworkers we wouldn't have gasoline. why doesn't everyone get into a tizzy yelling about how the way out of depression is to create alot of artificial jobs for dockworkers?

It wasn't big enough. By the way, it worked very well to get us out of the great depression after WW2 started.

WWII in no way "got us out of the depression". you do not build wealth by spending alot of resources and labor into making a tank, transporting it halfway across the world, and then blowing it up. nor are people wealthier when they have less money and fewer goods. furthermore, the deficit spending ("stimulus") of the past few years has been massive. the answer to it failing is always "well it must not have been big enough"; but that's a non-falsifiable thesis (in technical scientific terms: a load of crock).

Ya, and once again, it was trying to jumpstart a tractor with a 2A battery. The checks should have been for thousands of dollars, not for hundreds.

and it would have had no greater positive effect and likely a greater negative one.

but let's do this the slow (socratic) way:

where does the money get the money it deficit spends from?

So whats the "most important variable"? I always figure it is profit.

goverment. profit is the hope; but it is blown around in too many unpredictable ways by an unpredictable government. businesses right now don't even know how much Obamacare is going to cost them; add in questions about the tax schedule, whether or not their industries were about to be 'deemed too large to have competition and taken over'.... uncertainty produced by government is a massive killer of investment.

Your ignoring the fact that not only did the unemployment rate go down, but the employment rate went up.

yeah, and when something becomes colder, it loses heat. potatopotahto. irrespective, a mass-draft (temporarily) solved an unemployment problem.

And it went up more than the number of new wartime production jobs. Overall production increased and even when you subtract out for production that was used in the war effort, production still increased.

i would definitely like to see numbers arguing that private production of a non-military nature increased during WWII. especially i would like you to explain the recession that occured immediatly following it.

We will just have to disagree on that. Obviously when I read the history books I get something totally different out of them.

no, you don't get to have your own facts. whether it's 1933 or 2009; stimulus spending does not work as advertised. because it is built upon a faulty theory that one can simply reinflate an economy that was marked by malinvestment and this time magically it will work.

...Perhaps the most compelling research on this subject is a very recent study by Alberto Alesina and Silvia Ardagna at Harvard. They used data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development to identify every major fiscal stimulus adopted by the 30 OECD countries between 1970 and 2007. Alesina and Ardagna then separated those plans that were in fact followed by robust economic growth from those that were not, and compared their characteristics. They found that the stimulus packages that appeared to be successful had cut business and income taxes, while those that evidently did not succeed had increased government spending and transfer payments....
 
Do you think that the ratio of job seekers to jobs has anything to do with our unemployment rate?

as a measuring stick perhaps. as a cause, nope. It's like saying that unemployment being 9.6% has something to do with unemployment being 9.6%. hooray; you've discovered a tautology.

W/o jobs for them to take, motivation is moot.

wrong; incentives are never moot when discussing economic questions.

You could show that people were actually doing it.

:shrug: see the 99'ers? those people :)
 
yeah, and without truckers we wouldn't have food. and without policemen we wouldn't have safety. and without dockworkers we wouldn't have gasoline. why doesn't everyone get into a tizzy yelling about how the way out of depression is to create alot of artificial jobs for dockworkers?

OK, let me be a bit more specific. The government owns a lot of buildings and roads. It's a matter of practicality, since the gov owns lots of buildings and roads, it is something that they can invest in. By spending money on buildings and roads, at least the taxpayer gets something out of tax dollars. I have no idea how the gov could artificially create jobs in the dockworking industry, at least no ideas of how they could do it and actually produce something of value for the taxpayer.


WWII in no way "got us out of the depression". you do not build wealth by spending alot of resources and labor into making a tank, transporting it halfway across the world, and then blowing it up. nor are people wealthier when they have less money and fewer goods. furthermore, the deficit spending ("stimulus") of the past few years has been massive. the answer to it failing is always "well it must not have been big enough"; but that's a non-falsifiable thesis (in technical scientific terms: a load of crock).

Getting out of the great depression had a little to do with creating wealth. I agree that building tanks has a value less than building cars. The effect that ended the great depression was not building tanks, it was creating employment, which then resulted in more businesses selling more consumer goods, which then created more jobs.

and it would have had no greater positive effect and likely a greater negative one.

but let's do this the slow (socratic) way:

where does the money get the money it deficit spends from?

goverment. profit is the hope; but it is blown around in too many unpredictable ways by an unpredictable government. businesses right now don't even know how much Obamacare is going to cost them; add in questions about the tax schedule, whether or not their industries were about to be 'deemed too large to have competition and taken over'.... uncertainty produced by government is a massive killer of investment.

yeah, and when something becomes colder, it loses heat. potatopotahto. irrespective, a mass-draft (temporarily) solved an unemployment problem.

i would definitely like to see numbers arguing that private production of a non-military nature increased during WWII. especially i would like you to explain the recession that occured immediatly following it.

no, you don't get to have your own facts. whether it's 1933 or 2009; stimulus spending does not work as advertised. because it is built upon a faulty theory that one can simply reinflate an economy that was marked by malinvestment and this time magically it will work.

...Perhaps the most compelling research on this subject is a very recent study by Alberto Alesina and Silvia Ardagna at Harvard. They used data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development to identify every major fiscal stimulus adopted by the 30 OECD countries between 1970 and 2007. Alesina and Ardagna then separated those plans that were in fact followed by robust economic growth from those that were not, and compared their characteristics. They found that the stimulus packages that appeared to be successful had cut business and income taxes, while those that evidently did not succeed had increased government spending and transfer payments....

I'm all for cutting taxes!!! The most stimulative tax cuts occur in the lower tax brackets. Thats also were cuts in taxes do the least harm to our gov budget deficit. Putting money into the hands of the consumer by cutting taxes acts just like putting money in the hands of the consumer by increasing government spending.

But taxes are not the cause of our current financial situation. Remember that taxes are now lower than they were under Clinton, but our economy is worse. Taxes were lower under Reagan than they were under Clinton but Clinto reigned over the better economy. Cutting taxes are not the end-all-be-all to economic crisises. Our economy grew much faster under the high taxes of the 20th century than it did during the low tax period of the 19th century. We've been gradually cutting taxes for the past 80 years, just how much do we have to cut them before we will see some results?
 
So the reason for the currently high unemployment is just because people are lazy? We just suddenly had a spike in the number of lazy people?

It's not related to the fact that the ratio of job seekers to jobs available has taken a turn for the worse? Most of my adult life that ratio was about 1:1. Now it's 5 job seekers for every job opening. Do you think this has any bearing on the situation?

Common Sense tell us that : Of course it has a direct bearing on the situation and the robot machines that are replacing men has a better chance of filling the jobs opening that are available before a human being....

Who would have thought 60 years ago that man would be face to face on the factory floors, competing against a robot for a job.. If intelligent people would use their heads for something more than a hat, they would all know what happened to the jobs that's still available and has not been shipped away to some Foreign Land...
 
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as a measuring stick perhaps. as a cause, nope.
I didn't say it was the cause of anything except for the difficulty of people finding jobs.

It's like saying that unemployment being 9.6% has something to do with unemployment being 9.6%. hooray; you've discovered a tautology.
I have been referencing the ratio of available jobs to job seekers. The conclusion I have reached that you somehow have not is that this means that more motivation for job seekers is insufficient to get them employed.

wrong; incentives are never moot when discussing economic questions.
W/o jobs for people to have, motivation is insufficient and ineffectual.

:shrug: see the 99'ers? those people :)
And you are about to present data that these people have refused work in you next post?
 
I see it more as a jump start. The battery is dead, it needs a little help to crank the engine, once the engine is cranked, the battery will recharge.

The economy sucks, people arn't spending because the have no money (jobs), they arn't producing because they have no jobs. Artificially create jobs by increasing business sales by putting money into the pockets of consumers, people will have more money, that money will turn their desire for stuff into actual sales, businesses will keep the artificially and temporarally created jobs because they have more sales and thus the economic incentive of profit to hire more people because sales are up. Once an increase in sales has created this incentive, then the artificial part (government intervention) can end and our private sector economy grows on it's own.

But it's all artificial and all you've done is created another bubble. Great, you'll just create more misery a few more years down the line. To get steady growth, cut taxes permanently, end unemployment benefits, and end inflation. You'll see a real, permanent recovery based on increased production of succeeding businesses.
 
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