[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

[Fledermaus]

It is as I said. You are busted. The regional print media gets this same draconian law starting in 2024.

In other words you lied.

 

[Yakshi]

The trolling by the pro-Putin crowd seems to get weaker and weaker. It's almost as their heart isn't in it anymore.

 

[justoneman]

In other words you lied.

Face it. You are busted.

 

[Fledermaus]

Face ot. You are busted.

And again. Something that may happen in 2024 hasn't happened.

Still waiting on citation for that.

The rules are draconian. If you want to publish something in print it must be in Ukrainian. The only way the Russian speakers can publish anything in Russian is to print equal quantities in Ukrainian. The law requires a newsstand to contain at leat 50% Ukrainian.

Can is present. Will is future.

You lied.

 

[Juin]

Now you are putting conditions on a Ukrainian victory. But you said you were not worried about them losing.

Yeah, I can do that.
I'll do it again:
I'm not worried about Ukraine losing, so long as Russia doesn't mobilize significantly more of its population for war and Russia refrains from using nuclear or chemical weapons.

That can be said for all wars. I wont be worried about say Iran losing to the US in a war, I just have to list what the US shouldnt do.

Ukrainians are NOT united as a people. There are pro Russian Ukrainians fighting against Kyiv since 2014

They are with respect to this war. With respect to military strategy, with respect to the process Ukrainian forces have to go through to make decisions, the sides have already been chosen. There aren't any Ukrainians arguing about whether or not Ukraine should defend itself against Russia. You're now either fighting for Ukraine or fighting for Russia. There is no internal dispute within the Ukrainian military or within the Ukrainian government or within Ukrainian society outside of the areas Russia occupies. And the fact that Ukrainians are united in this way has a positive impact on how they wage war against the Russians. This is not true with respect to Russian society. There is not the same unanimous desire to wage war against Ukraine.

You said Ukrainians are united "as a people" in this war. They are NOT. There are two ethnic Russian Ukrainian Armies fighting against Kyiv.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

So if it takes Ukraine 10 years to take Kherson that's ok?

1. It's clear to everyone now that the Ukrainians are willing to die to be free, to live in a modern, normal country that is free of Russia's corrupt influence. The only way the Russians will be able to conquer Ukraine in the long-term is for them to engage in mass murder like Stalin did during the Holodomor.

2. What would you do if someone tried to conquer the U.S.? Would you give up like you're suggesting the Ukrainians do? Wouldn't you devote as much time as it would take to secure freedom and independence for your descendants?

 

[W_Heisenberg]

You can assume any story is written in favor of Ukrainians. Therefor if they describe an ordered retreat, what really happened was after realizing they were playing the part of The 6th Army in a mini Stalingrad, the commanders finally mutinied and ordered a retreat against Zelenskys orders. It was Z himself ordering entire brigades into the salient like Hitler ordering the 6th Army to not retreat from Stalingrad

If you don't believe what you write then why do you write it? What's the point?

 

[justoneman]

And again. Something that may happen in 2024 hasn't happened.

Still waiting on citation for that.


Can is present. Will is future.

You lied.

You lie. It is as I said. You are busted.

 

[justoneman]

1. It's clear to everyone now that the Ukrainians are willing to die to be free, to live in a modern, normal country that is free of Russia's corrupt influence. The only way the Russians will be able to conquer Ukraine in the long-term is for them to engage in mass murder like Stalin did during the Holodomor.

2. What would you do if someone tried to conquer the U.S.? Would you give up like you're suggesting the Ukrainians do? Wouldn't you devote as much time as it would take to secure freedom and independence for your descendants?

You said however long it takes is ok. So 10 years is ok? Do you think it will take 10 years for them to take Kherson?

 

[W_Heisenberg]

However western intelligence and NGOs did pour money into organizers to print newspapers provide food for demonstrators print leaflets, organize political networks, provide vehicles to move people in. Provide disinformation on behalf of organizers Etc

What you are describing is not a coup, it's called helping a country become a modern, Western democracy. All of these activities are non-violent. The only reason why these activities irritate you is because you hate democracy and you love dictators like Putin. The Ukrainians have the right to choose a government that represents their interests, and if the U.S. and its allies can help, it's an honor for us to do so. Pro-democracy activities benefit the people of Ukraine and the West as a whole. And the Ukrainians have the right to choose their own leader even if it really really really irritates Putin.

And Victoria Nuland largely admitted the US government was involved.

Yes, Nuland and the E.U. helped broker a non-violent, diplomatic resolution between the factions while Yanukovych was in office. Yanukovych, however, fled like a coward with money he stole from the Ukrainian people.

Obviously this is true, the average people on the streets are not making the business decisions above their heads

Ukraine is a representative democracy just like all other Western democracies. Ordinary people don't have time to haggle and bicker about the details. Since 2014 there have been several successful elections in Ukraine in which the Ukrainian people have been able to choose their leaders. A Russian-backed civil war in Ukraine erupted after Putin realize he could no longer control Ukraine. But Ukraine is not Putin's to control. Putin has no right to control Ukraine.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

You said however long it takes is ok. So 10 years is ok? Do you think it will take 10 years for them to take Kherson?

That's for the Ukrainians decide. So long as they are willing to fight we should help them to the greatest extent practically possible.

I would fight for the span of my lifetime for my people if we were invaded.

How long would it take you to surrender if we were invaded? A couple of days?

 

[Fledermaus]

You lie. It is as I said. You are busted.

Wrong on all counts.

Can is present tense. This isn't 2024. And you haven't cited the 2024 law.

 

[Juin]

My favored you tube channel
I will give this afternoon give a summery

More to come, Germany is working on more 2000

We may be looking at a Europe wide war as the parties up their commitments.

Mars means its Himars and it has a tracked, armored launching vehicle. Mobility and prezione ammo are the trade mark
I will sumerize the lates you toub video of Nachgefragt.
The top line for me the difference of the current artillery set up.

ok

Russian average reach is 20 km, Ukraine is 12 km. That is a huge Russian advantage.

And the Russians have the advantage of the airforce as well. Which brings up a matter to address. With an airforce, long range missiles and artillery, Russia is barely crushing the Ukrainians. I fail to see how artillery by the handful will be a game changer for the Ukrainians. Mind you that the US M777s have been delivered and deployed, and do not appear to be changing things much.

I therefore remain convinced that quantity is a critical factor for Ukrainians to change the game. The weapons must attain a critical mass for the Ukrainians to turn the tide. So what is the critical mass to turn the tide? That is out of my sphere as a civilian. That is where you the soldier comes in. What is the critical mass?

The Ukrainians have suggested a minimum of 1000 howitzers? I suppose of the M777 levels. Maybe the Ukrainians exaggerate? I am not so sure. They have done their best with what has been delivered in terms of M777s. Why dont we say the western countries commit themselves to delivering at least 300 artillery pieces of the M777 caliber in the very immediate future at least?

Accuracy is good, but it can also be overwhelmed by numbers.

We have to look at those guns. A towed gun is not mobile, it take up to 30 minutes to set it up, even the 777 and then 30 minutes to take it down and move it. Nice gun, but when it comes to mobility, not nice, yesterday and they do not have the critical electronics.

Since mobile guns are so much more preferable to towed guns, what is the explanation for the continuous production of towed guns? cost?

What does it mean, the Ukkraine will be able to advance its average range to close to 30km, like the Russians, with less guns.
But with more accuracy.
But then it all depends on the Ukraine, how they use this advantage

Good point. A weapons system is a composite of man and machine; together they make the total whole.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

That can be said for all wars. I wont be worried about say Iran losing to the US in a war, I just have to list what the US shouldnt do.

I don't have to participate in this discussion based only on the parameters that you define. And you can accept or reject the parameters I am presenting.

Also, I don't think my argument is really that unreasonable: Ukraine will win if Russia doesn't use nukes or implement a large-scale draft.

Is that really so unreasonable?

You said Ukrainians are united "as a people" in this war. They are NOT. There are two ethnic Russian Ukrainian Armies fighting against Kyiv.

Sigh.

You are missing my point.

You make a big deal about wanting to appear knowledgeable about military history and military strategy, but you didn't understand the point I was making. It's very helpful for a military force to have a common vision or goal. It's very helpful for a military force to be supported by a civilian population that shares the same common vision or goal. It helps with the decision-making process. Ukrainians don't have to argue about what to do. They know what to do. Kick Russia out. The Ukrainian military can count on the civilian population for support.

And, yes, there are two ethnic Russian-Ukrainian armies fighting against the rest of Ukraine, but they are not involved in the decision-making process in Kyiv. They have no relevance to the chain of command or how Kyiv makes decisions. They are different entities separate and apart from Kyiv.

Russia doesn't have the same advantage. Russian troops are stealing washing machines, refusing to fight, refusing to re-enlist, etc. The Russian civilian population doesn't fully support the war. The smartest Russians are leaving Russia for Western countries.

That's why I brought the topic up.

 

[Juin]

These peoples had history as a people. Ukraine is far more like Belgium, an artificial construction containing multiple ethnicities with different languages than Serbia, a country corresponding to a people. Belgium and Canada, and Switzerland have no problem being multilingual societies. Why does Ukraine?

Some of the ex Soviet Socialist Republics aspire to be Russia free zones. The Baltic midgets- Estonia especially- is a case in point. Decades after independence Estonia has a mass of quasi stateless citizens. These are its ethnic Russians

 

[justoneman]

Wrong on all counts.

Can is present tense. This isn't 2024. And you haven't cited the 2024 law.

Ukraine has Russian language restrictions on printed media. It has restrictions on broadcast news in Russian language. This is current.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

What you are describing is not a coup, it's called helping a country become a modern, Western democracy. All of these activities are non-violent. The only reason why these activities irritate you is because you hate democracy and you love dictators like Putin. The Ukrainians have the right to choose a government that represents their interests, and if the U.S. and its allies can help, it's an honor for us to do so. Pro-democracy activities benefit the people of Ukraine and the West as a whole. And the Ukrainians have the right to choose their own leader even if it really really really irritates Putin.

So you admit we directly interfered in Ukraine’s internal affairs

Yes, Nuland and the E.U. helped broker a non-violent, diplomatic resolution between the factions while Yanukovych was in office. Yanukovych, however, fled like a coward with money he stole from the Ukrainian people.

No, they didn’t

Ukraine is a representative democracy just like all other Western democracies. Ordinary people don't have time to haggle and bicker about the details. Since 2014 there have been several successful elections in Ukraine in which the Ukrainian people have been able to choose their leaders. A Russian-backed civil war in Ukraine erupted after Putin realize he could no longer control Ukraine. But Ukraine is not Putin's to control. Putin has no right to control Ukraine.

Yea, the Ruthenians and their faction won elections because Crimea and the eastern oblasts aren’t part of Ukraine any longer and don’t vote in Kiev’s elections

 

[Juin]

I don't have to participate in this discussion based only on the parameters that you define. And you can accept or reject the parameters I am presenting.
Also, I don't think my argument is really that unreasonable: Ukraine will win if Russia doesn't use nukes or implement a large-scale draft.
Is that really so unreasonable?

Its not an unreasonable point. But it is also reasonable, even imperative, to assume that Russia will do what it takes to survive an existential conflict with the west.

Sigh.
You are missing my point.
You make a big deal about wanting to appear knowledgeable about military history and military strategy,

It has been a lifetime hobby of mine. A hobby, not a profession. Provided I dont get down to arguing with soldiers over the nuts and bolts of running armies, I am just fine.

but you didn't understand the point I was making. It's very helpful for a military force to have a common vision or goal. It's very helpful for a military force to be supported by a civilian population that shares the same common vision or goal. It helps with the decision-making process. Ukrainians don't have to argue about what to do. They know what to do. Kick Russia out. The Ukrainian military can count on the civilian population for support.

I am not sure where I am at fault here. I latched only onto the suggestion that Ukrainians are united as "a people" against Russia. Its not an idle matter. Far too many people- including as far up as western leaders- ignore that Ukraine is an ethnically fractured society. Maybe we wont be in this tragedy if that fact was appreciated more.

The Ukrainian military can count on support of a segement- even the majority of the population- for support; but so also the Russian Army and separatist Armies. There are Ukrainians welcoming the Russians; maybe a minority of the totality of the Ukrainian population, but they are there.

And, yes, there are two ethnic Russian-Ukrainian armies fighting against the rest of Ukraine, but they are not involved in the decision-making process in Kyiv. They have no relevance to the chain of command or how Kyiv makes decisions. They are different entities separate and apart from Kyiv.

But also part of Ukraine

Russia doesn't have the same advantage. Russian troops are stealing washing machines, refusing to fight, refusing to re-enlist, etc. The Russian civilian population doesn't fully support the war. The smartest Russians are leaving Russia for Western countries.
That's why I brought the topic up.

Are you sure the Russian civilian population doesnt support the war?

 

[W_Heisenberg]

Its not an unreasonable point. But it is also reasonable, even imperative, to assume that Russia will do what it takes to survive an existential conflict with the west.

If you frame it that way, sure. But I'm not framing it that way. I don't think Russia is going to use nukes unless it feels seriously threatened. I think loss of Crimea might begin to make them feel threatened. I think loss of territory in Russia proper will certainly make them feel threatened. But we are a very long way from that.

It has been a lifetime hobby of mine. A hobby, not a profession. Provided I dont get down to arguing with soldiers over the nuts and bolts of running armies, I am just fine.

That's cool. I can tell you really like the topic.

I am not sure where I am at fault here.

You're not at "fault", you're just engaged in a debating an entirely different issue.

I latched only onto the suggestion that Ukrainians are united as "a people" against Russia. Its not an idle matter. Far too many people- including as far up as western leaders- ignore that Ukraine is an ethnically fractured society. Maybe we wont be in this tragedy if that fact was appreciated more.

Let me give you an example, outside of the Russian ethnic enclaves in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea:

Support for Zelenskyy and his policies is at 94%.

IRI Ukraine Poll Shows Overwhelming Support for Zelensky, Confidence in Winning the War, Desire for EU Membership

Kyiv, Ukraine – The latest public opinion survey conducted by the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Center for Insights in Survey Research

www.iri.org

Are you sure the Russian civilian population doesnt support the war?

Just roughly, based on nothing but Russians on YouTube giving their own impressions of what other Russians think, we're probably looking at something like 30% hardcore support, 20% lukewarm support, 10% don't give a shit, and something like 30 to 40% outright opposition.

But these are all indirect indications because saying anything contrary to what Putin wants to hear lands you in prison.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

So you admit we directly interfered in Ukraine’s internal affairs

If you want to call preaching the gospel of democracy interfering in Ukraine's internal affairs, sure.

But this is only a problem for dictators like Putin. This is not a problem for Ukraine. It's a problem for Putin because Putin cannot control Ukraine if Ukraine becomes a full-fledged, modern, Western democracy. And Putin has no right to control Ukraine.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

No, they didn’t

Yes, they did. And if you believe otherwise what you are communicating to me and everyone else is that you trust Putin and his propaganda more than you trust your own government.

Yea, the Ruthenians and their faction won elections because Crimea and the eastern oblasts aren’t part of Ukraine any longer and don’t vote in Kiev’s elections

What were the Ukrainians supposed to do? Delay elections until Putin stopped funding the civil war?

 

[Schrott]

We may be looking at a Europe wide war as the parties up their commitments.





ok




And the Russians have the advantage of the airforce as well. Which brings up a matter to address. With an airforce, long range missiles and artillery, Russia is barely crushing the Ukrainians. I fail to see how artillery by the handful will be a game changer for the Ukrainians. Mind you that the US M777s have been delivered and deployed, and do not appear to be changing things much.

I therefore remain convinced that quantity is a critical factor for Ukrainians to change the game. The weapons must attain a critical mass for the Ukrainians to turn the tide. So what is the critical mass to turn the tide? That is out of my sphere as a civilian. That is where you the soldier comes in. What is the critical mass?

The Ukrainians have suggested a minimum of 1000 howitzers? I suppose of the M777 levels. Maybe the Ukrainians exaggerate? I am not so sure. They have done their best with what has been delivered in terms of M777s. Why dont we say the western countries commit themselves to delivering at least 300 artillery pieces of the M777 caliber in the very immediate future at least?

Accuracy is good, but it can also be overwhelmed by numbers.





Since mobile guns are so much more preferable to towed guns, what is the explanation for the continuous production of towed guns? cost?





Good point. A weapons system is a composite of man and machine; together they make the total whole.

The problem with the Russian air force, it does not show up and if in very small numbers. Ukraine air defense is still very strong. There are increasing reports of extremely low flying Russian planes which crash, auger in..
The Ukraine air space is still highly contested.

Mass is nice, but quality is better. Russia has laser guided ammo, 152 and 120, and they are rather good. But here is the problem, you need to paint your target with a laser, drone or soldier, bad weather, smoke, dust and you can not use the laser, because of it not the ammo.
And one laser can only target one target
PzH 2000 and MARS, use GPS guided ammo, all weather, pre programed before the fire mission, you can program the spread.
the 2000 can do 10 rounds per minute, 5 = 50 and they all will hit the target, within a 5 meter circle. With dumb ammo you need around 50 to 80 rounds to get the bulls eye, 1 hit.
That is one reason why the Ukraine has been able to hold on, in the cities and were they have a good ditch network.

towed guns is a cost factor, a self propelled cost 3 to 4 times as much and naturally is fare more maintenance intensive and expensive. But on the other hand a towed needs more soldiers

As much as I was able to find out The Ukraine has the dumb ammo version of the M777. They needed something fast, no time for lengthy training. 2000, MARS, Gepard etc takes 40 to 60 days training, same for the other high tech NATO equipment.

 

[Roadvirus]

In a fake country like Ukraine...

Annnnnnnnd stopped reading there.

 

[craig]

This war will not end in a military victory. Ukraine will withdraw into fortified defensive positions. The west will continue to destroy the Russian economy until the Putin government falls.

 

[Roadvirus]

* Ukraine's general staff said its troops had some success in the southern Kherson region, forcing the Russians back from defensive positions near the village of Olhine, the latest of several Ukrainian counter-assaults.

* Ukraine held a preliminary hearing in its first trial of a Russian soldier charged with raping a Ukrainian woman during Russia's invasion, the first of what prosecutors say could be dozens of such cases. read more

Ukraine and Russia: What you need to know right now

At least three people were killed and dozens of homes damaged by blasts in the Russian city of Belgorod near the Ukraine border, the regional governor said, while Ukrainian forces hit a Russian military base in occupied southern Ukraine.

www.reuters.com