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U.S. intel agencies: Up to 4,000 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine invasion

Rogue Valley

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3.8.22
U.S. intelligence agencies estimate that between 2,000 and 4,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the two-week long invasion of Ukraine — possibly more than the number of Americans killed in the 20-year war in Afghanistan. The estimate underscores the steep price Russia is already paying for a conflict that Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines called “a shock to the geopolitical order with implications for the future that we are only beginning to understand.” An estimated 2,448 American service members were killed during two decades of war in Afghanistan, according to the Associated Press. Russian President Vladimir Putin perceives the war he started in Ukraine as one “he cannot afford to lose,” Haines said, adding that intelligence analysts anticipate a protracted conflict with a “persistent and significant insurgency,” by Ukrainian forces.

“I think Putin is angry and frustrated right now,” CIA Director William Burns added. “He is likely to double down and try to grind down the Ukrainian military with no regard for civilian casualties.” Haines said American intelligence agencies assess that “Moscow underestimated the strength of Ukraine’s resistance and the degree of military challenge,” but that Putin may feel compelled to fight on nonetheless, as the Russian military operates “with reckless disregard” for the safety of non-combatants. She said it was unclear if Russia will continue the “maximalist plan” to seize all of Ukraine, and that the economic crisis Russia is now experiencing because of international sanctions is “driving domestic political opposition to Putin.”


As evidenced by Chechnya and Syria, Russian military doctrine advocates for the killing of civilians in order to apply another pressure point on the opposition command structure.
 

Rogue Valley

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4,000 KIA in 2 weeks is not sustainable.

And these are supposedly among the better of the Russian forces. The Kremlin said conscripts have not been sent to Ukraine.
 

CaughtInThe

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how do their wives feel about Trump's genius?
 

lemmiwinx

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Armies march on their stomachs. Unless they're Russian then they beg the locals for some crumbs. Should've thought of that before they left Russia.
 

maxparrish

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As evidenced by Chechnya and Syria, Russian military doctrine advocates for the killing of civilians in order to apply another pressure point on the opposition command structure.

That is very interesting. Some back of the envelope calculations:

In Vietnam, for both US forces and South Korean forces for every man killed, three more were hospitalized wounded. If 3000 have been killed (avg of 2k-4k) then another 9,000 have been wounded. So Russians may have suffered 12,000 dead and wounded combined in just 2 weeks of fighting.

In ten years of war in Afghanistan, the Soviet Union suffered 14,500 dead and 45,000 wounded. Eventually forcing them to give up and leave.

Should combat continue for just a year in Ukraine, at this rate the Russians will have suffered 81,000 dead, and 240,000 wounded.

Ukranian claims are 12,000 dead Russian, so many bodies Russia refuses to pick them up (and has portable crematoriums). Russian mothers are all told that their dead children are "MIA", which is why 1000s have called Ukrainian help lines asking for information on their "MIA" child.

Whatever the actual number of killed, this many killed cannot be hidden forever...can it?
 

MaryP

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As evidenced by Chechnya and Syria, Russian military doctrine advocates for the killing of civilians in order to apply another pressure point on the opposition command structure.
They got any estimates on how many Ukranians? No, don't tell me 476.
 

maxparrish

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They got any estimates on how many Ukranians? No, don't tell me 476.
I'd estimate 1/3rd to 1/2 of however many Russians have been killed (not counting civilians).
 

MaryP

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I'd estimate 1/3rd to 1/2 of however many Russians have been killed (not counting civilians).
Why so few, Max? And I'd like to know including the civilians. They count since Russia is shelling and shooting them.
 

maxparrish

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Why so few, Max? And I'd like to know including the civilians. They count since Russia is shelling and shooting them.

I'm estimating based on my experience in military reading, and the advantages that defense has over offense. Double Ukraine's estimate of their own military deaths, cut in half their claim of Russian deaths. Seems a best guess based on the flood of media coverage of verified destruction of military assets on both sides.

I've not been able to make guesses about civilian deaths. Perhaps some agency or NGO has...with 60 hospitals seriously damaged or destroyed, the number would be significant.
 

MaryP

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I'm estimating based on my experience in military reading, and the advantages that defense has over offense. Double Ukraine's estimate of their own military deaths, cut in half their claim of Russian deaths. Seems a best guess based on the flood of media coverage of verified destruction of military assets on both sides.

I've not been able to make guesses about civilian deaths. Perhaps some agency or NGO has...with 60 hospitals seriously damaged or destroyed, the number would be significant.
As of today, the UN says 474 Ukranians have been confirmed killed, but they believe the number is much higher.
 
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