Several lists containing names of suspected moles have been circulating in the intelligence community since December, according to one American diplomat and two American intelligence officials who spoke on condition of anonymity. But the names of the suspected Iranian agents themselves are the focus of a heated dispute.
This debate, among others concerning Iran's influence and control of Iraqi government institutions, is one key factor holding up the publication of a consensus intelligence finding on Iraq known as a National Intelligence Estimate. The dispute over Iranian power in Iraq's Interior Ministry, national military, customs office, Health Ministry, and Defense Ministry will determine how President Bush's troop surge is implemented, one intelligence official said. "This could lead to disbanding whole units of the Iraqi military and affect how we embed our guys in their units," the official said. "If it's true, if some of this is true, it's very bad. But we don't know yet."
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Iran's intentions in Iraq were explored in a paper released this month by a former Army translator and current analyst for the Fort Leavenworth, Kan.-based Foreign Military Studies Office, a U.S. Army branch that works largely with open source material for analysis of foreign militaries. In the paper, "Iran's Contribution to the Civil War in Iraq," Mounir Elkhamri says Iran's Quds Force has worked to create a rump Shiite state in southern Iraq since shortly after the attacks of September 11, 2001, and that the Shiite militias killing Sunni civilians in Iraq are working at the behest of Iranian intelligence and Revolutionary Guard.
Documents captured from Saddam Hussein's intelligence service show "Iran's deep penetration in Iraqi society and institutions. Iran clandestinely supported the U.S. invasion of Iraq and took measures to turn it to her advantage," Mr. Elkhamri writes in the paper, published by a Washington-based national security think tank that includes both Democrats and Republicans on its board, the Jamestown Foundation.
While the Iranians were helpful in the invasion period, Mr. Elkhamri writes, by as early as 2004 the Iranian Quds Force and Ministry of Intelligence and Security began establishing influence to advance Tehran's interests. On March 11, 2004, Quds Force, the arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in charge of terrorism against America and Israel, opened the "Office to Help Poor Iraqi Shia."
By offering an upfront gift of $2,000 and a monthly stipend of $1,000, the office was able to recruit 70,000 young Shiite men in 2004 to join one of the numerous militias allied with Iran, Mr. Elkhamri writes.
Mr. Elkhamri's conclusions are stark. "Today in Iraq, Shia militias — death squads loyal to Iran — have successfully infiltrated the new Iraqi security forces at all levels. They have also expanded their area of operations throughout Iraq. They are responsible for more civilian deaths than the Sunni and foreign insurgents who are the United States' number one enemies in Iraq. These militias — the Mahdi Army, the Badr Brigade, and others — are carrying out attacks under the authority of and in the uniforms of the Iraqi Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Defense."