U.S. economy grew at a 3% rate in Q2, a better-than-expected pace even as Trump’s tariffs hit

[Jredbaron96]

According to the chart posted above there's been almost no movement in Domestic since last October. What exactly are we suppose to be getting worked up about? Eggs?

The real price increases are in goods most likely to be affected by tariffs.

 

[Ikari]

Liberal revisionist history.

Prices rose drastically here in the US because Biden decided to flood consumers with another round of stimulus checks even though we were basically back to full employment and while we were in the midst of severe supply chain constraints and ports backed up miles.


Too many dollars chasing too few goods.

But it didn't rise because Trump flooded us with a round of stimulus checks?

lol

No, you can go and recheck history because there was global inflation.

lol

 

[Eriech]

I know that Trumpers are eager to spin this but if one puts politics aside and listen to the economists , this is not a good report other than the headline number. If it was a good report the markets would be reacting positively but it's basically flat.

The Q2 numbers were skewed by a significant drop in imports caused by the significant increase in them Q1. most economists are saying the real numbers are a blend of Q! and Q2. However, looking past the top number economists are concerned becasue bot consumer spending and Core GDP are weak. Good news is if this trend continues Powell will lower rates next go around.


"Consumer spending, which powers about 70% of the US economy, picked up sharply in the second quarter to a 1.4% rate, up from the anemic 0.5% in the first quarter. But, combined with the previous data, it marks the two slowest quarters of spending since the pandemic. Meanwhile, businesses slowed their spending sharply during the same period, to 1.9% from 10.3%, mostly reflecting a recalibration from the front-running earlier in the year.

Still, the economy isn’t out of the woods and things could take a turn for the worse: A key gauge of underlying demand in the economy — real final sales to private domestic purchasers, also referred to as “core GDP” — slowed in the second quarter to an annualized rate of 1.2%, the weakest pace since the fourth quarter of 2022, down from 1.9% earlier in the year.


“Headline numbers are hiding the economy’s true performance, which is slowing as tariffs take a bite out of activity,” Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, said in commentary issued Wednesday. “If core GDP performance continues at this pace, we expect there will be even more pressure on the Fed to lower rates as the economy slows.”

Have economist got Trump right yet?
Third quarter will be helped by 100% expensing by business. The economy is not going to slow.

 

[Chomsky]

lol

Prices are at the same point they were back in Oct and less then a tenth away for imports.

Basically a rounding error at this point.

But if you remember, OCT was coming off a period of super high inflation on a downward slope. Now, Trump has reversed that sending prices back up. The past several months have shown increasing inflation, with the most recent month jump (JUN) to 0.3% - which is 3.6% annualized.

The JLY report will be the tell as to whether rising inflation is now a trend. I suspect it will be, and if so that will definitely preclude a rate cut - barring a jobs report disaster.

 

[dobieg]

The real price increases are in goods most likely to be affected by tariffs.

And largely offest by energy prices.

 

[dobieg]

But it didn't rise because Trump flooded us with a round of stimulus checks?

lol

No, you can go and recheck history because there was global inflation.

lol

There was?


Show your work.

 

[Jredbaron96]

And largely offest by energy prices.

View attachment 67582327

No? That's not how consumption works. One sector getting cheaper doesnt mean that another section getting more expensive equals to a homeostasis.

If that were true, domestic growth wouldn't be declining.

 

[Chomsky]

Ask Taco. We all await the whims of one man.

Yeah. Trump enacts huge 145% tariffs on China, the world (incl us posters) reacts predicting upheaval, Trump TACO's, and in response to the TACO we're attacked & belittled.

It that don't exemplify the MAGA ethos, I don't know what does?

 

[dobieg]

Have economist got Trump right yet?
Third quarter will be helped by 100% expensing by business. The economy is not going to slow.

There are even some big hitters expecting a full blown bull economy.

‘Not just a cyclical recovery, but a boom.’ BofA says a ‘key tail risk’ is that the Trump economy will actually start to take off​

​

‘Not just a cyclical recovery, but a boom.’ BofA says a ‘key tail risk’ is that the Trump economy will actually start to take off

“Today a confluence of factors argue that the key tail risk that may not be priced in is not just a cyclical recovery, but a boom,” BofA Research analysts write.

fortune.com

 

[Ikari]

There was?


Show your work.

You're the one claiming that Biden's stimulus checks caused global inflation whereas Trump's didn't.

Where's the work?

 

[dobieg]

No? That's not how consumption works. One sector getting cheaper doesnt mean that another section getting more expensive equals to a homeostasis.

If that were true, domestic growth wouldn't be declining.
View attachment 67582329

In regards to the average consumer of course it does. If prices rise on a basket of costs but are lowered elsewhere that is an offset.

 

[Jredbaron96]

In regards to the average consumer of course it does. If prices rise on a basket of costs but are lowered elsewhere that is an offset.

That assumes equal distribution of consumption across sectors. I buy groceries every week but I only pay my energy bill once a month. Youre assuming that it just evens out with nothing to actually show for it.

 

[Chomsky]

I know that Trumpers are eager to spin this but if one puts politics aside and listen to the economists , this is not a good report other than the headline number. If it was a good report the markets would be reacting positively but it's basically flat.

The Q2 numbers were skewed by a significant drop in imports caused by the significant increase in them Q1. most economists are saying the real numbers are a blend of Q! and Q2. However, looking past the top number economists are concerned becasue bot consumer spending and Core GDP are weak. Good news is if this trend continues Powell will lower rates next go around.


"Consumer spending, which powers about 70% of the US economy, picked up sharply in the second quarter to a 1.4% rate, up from the anemic 0.5% in the first quarter. But, combined with the previous data, it marks the two slowest quarters of spending since the pandemic. Meanwhile, businesses slowed their spending sharply during the same period, to 1.9% from 10.3%, mostly reflecting a recalibration from the front-running earlier in the year.

Still, the economy isn’t out of the woods and things could take a turn for the worse: A key gauge of underlying demand in the economy — real final sales to private domestic purchasers, also referred to as “core GDP” — slowed in the second quarter to an annualized rate of 1.2%, the weakest pace since the fourth quarter of 2022, down from 1.9% earlier in the year.


“Headline numbers are hiding the economy’s true performance, which is slowing as tariffs take a bite out of activity,” Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, said in commentary issued Wednesday. “If core GDP performance continues at this pace, we expect there will be even more pressure on the Fed to lower rates as the economy slows.”

Yes, some outlets like CNN are astutely pointing the above out.

The problem is Trump is artificially destabilizing the economy, making it hard to predict, and difficult for CEO's and the Fed to do their job.

 

[dobieg]

You're the one claiming that Biden's stimulus checks caused global inflation whereas Trump's didn't.

Where's the work?

*rolling eyes*

12-month percentage change, Consumer Price Index, selected categories

www.bls.gov

 

[Ikari]

*rolling eyes*

View attachment 67582330

12-month percentage change, Consumer Price Index, selected categories

www.bls.gov

And? That's just a graph. There was global inflation that resulted as a fallout from a global pandemic. That doesn't prove causation that Biden's stimulus caused the inflation where Trump's did not.

You understand what proof and causation is, yes?

 

[Chomsky]

The real price increases are in goods most likely to be affected by tariffs.

Yep. The numbers don't lie. Proctor & Gamble announced price increases specifically citing Trump's tariffs.

 

[Callen]

Have economist got Trump right yet?
Third quarter will be helped by 100% expensing by business. The economy is not going to slow.

An opinion.....we all have them

 

[Sooner or Later]

And largely offest by energy prices.

View attachment 67582327

Crude not behaving.

 

[dobieg]

And? That's just a graph. There was global inflation that resulted as a fallout from a global pandemic. That doesn't prove causation that Biden's stimulus caused the inflation where Trump's did not.

You understand what proof and causation is, yes?

You're going to keep taking me around in circles without adressing anything I said or even looking at an inflation chart.

Sorry, waste someone else's time.

 

[Crakhobarbie]

Any idea when we can expect it to happen?

As soon as your demigod stops flip flopping.

 

[dobieg]

As soon as your demigod stops flip flopping.

Seems like he's been quite effective.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

There are even some big hitters expecting a full blown bull economy.

If Trump continues to violate the Constitution by withholding congressionally approved federal funding, deports millions of immigrants, and stops TACO'ing, no longer pulling his punches on tariffs by extending every deadline, and instead implements real, significant tariffs across the board, the economy will almost certainly crash, and we will face a long, sustained period of slow or negative economic growth thereafter.

In the meantime, what he's really doing by acting like an idiot, putting tariffs on one day, taking them off the next, is making life miserable for people who actually still work for a living.

Trump is the dumbest person who has ever held the office. He is so profoundly ignorant about this topic and nearly all topics.

I cannot describe to you in words how ****ing stupid Trump is.

And it's so hard to convey this to retirees who watch television all day and who have been brainwashed by Fox News. Unless Trump says it then a fact is not true to them.

 

[Ikari]

You're going to keep taking me around in circles without adressing anything I said or even looking at an inflation chart.

Sorry, waste someone else's time.

So you got nothing. Which is what I knew from the start. You have a partisan political narrative that you like to push, but nothing more. You can't prove that Biden's stimulus produced the global inflation that hit after the global pandemic. You have nothing, never had anything, will never have anything to demonstrate what you try to claim. It's an empty, vacuous, banal claim with no force or evidence behind it.

Thank you for demonstrating that quite splendidly.

 

[dobieg]

Yep. The numbers don't lie. Proctor & Gamble announced price increases specifically citing Trump's tariffs.

Catastrophic!!

Procter & Gamble, one of the country's largest consumer goods manufacturers, said Tuesday that it's raising prices on certain grooming, beauty and oral care products for retail customers to combat higher costs.
............

The exact amount of price increases will vary by specific item, but will be in the mid-single digit percentage range.

Procter & Gamble says it's raising prices on some grocery items

An email from P&G to a distributor indicates Olay, Crest and Oral-B products will be getting more expensive, at least for retailers.

abc11.com

 

[dobieg]

If Trump continues to violate the Constitution by withholding congressionally approved federal funding, deports millions of immigrants, and stops TACO'ing, no longer pulling his punches on tariffs by extending every deadline, and instead implements real, significant tariffs across the board, the economy will almost certainly crash, and we will face a long, sustained period of slow or negative economic growth thereafter.

In the meantime, what he's really doing by acting like an idiot, putting tariffs on one day, taking them off the next, is making life miserable for people who actually still work for a living.

Trump is the dumbest person who has ever held the office. He is so profoundly about this topic and nearly all topics.

I cannot describe to you in words how ****ing stupid Trump is.

And it's so hard to convey this to retirees who watch television all day and who have been brainwashed by Fox News. Unless Trump says it then a fact is not true to them.

Markets are at record highs. Most working Americans who don't whine daily into their pillows can see they are doing well.


Well,.....unless you're a criminal or illegal.