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Trump's Iran bombing mission appears to have been a failure.

Questerr said:
Then our bombing of Iran is not in defense of Israel.
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That's illogical. Why would there need to be a binding treaty for our actions to be in defense of Israel and/or not a war of aggression? You can defend a stranger you see getting assaulted in public. A binding treaty is not needed. Our relationship with Israel is greater than that of complete strangers.
Questerr said:
It's a war of aggression launched by the US.
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Cosmo said:
That's illogical. Why would there need to be a binding treaty for our actions to be in defense of Israel and/or not a war of aggression? You can defend a stranger you see getting assaulted in public. A binding treaty is not needed. Our relationship with Israel is greater than that of complete strangers.
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Yemen has been getting assaulted by the Saudis for a decade now. Why haven’t we stepped in to stop that assault?
 
Cosmo said:
You like to ask loaded questions due to your hatred of America.
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How is it a loaded question? By the same standard the Right uses to call Iran’s actions terrorism, the US’s drone strike program is terrorism.
 
Questerr said:
Yemen has been getting assaulted by the Saudis for a decade now. Why haven’t we stepped in to stop that assault?
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If someone doesn't stop all the assaults of all people in the world, it means it is aggression to stop the assault of a few? Stop with your idiotic questions already. You aren't any good at this logic stuff.

Questerr said:
How is it a loaded question? By the same standard the Right uses to call Iran’s actions terrorism, the US’s drone strike program is terrorism.
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What "standard" are you rambling about, and why am I bound by it?
 
Questerr said:
Yemen has been getting assaulted by the Saudis for a decade now. Why haven’t we stepped in to stop that assault?
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we did stop arms sales and logistics to KSA under Biden. I don't know if Trump has resumed any or even been asked to do so by MbS
 
Cosmo said:
Fordow took years to build and improve. Tribal thinking is assuming they just moved everything in a couple of days and are back in business same as before because you saw a few trucks nearby.


Oh right the US just woke up one day and decided to attack an innocent country. No different from Russia, right? Not like Iran had been attacking Israel, a publicly known US ally. :rolleyes:
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This
 
L88 said:
And you know this, how.
Smarter people than this forum don't know and have said so.
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Because a fleet of trucks around Fordow was reported in the media two days before the attack.

Hegseth got punked by Newsweek. Oh, the humiliation.
 
Cosmo said:
That's illogical. Why would there need to be a binding treaty for our actions to be in defense of Israel and/or not a war of aggression? You can defend a stranger you see getting assaulted in public. A binding treaty is not needed. Our relationship with Israel is greater than that of complete strangers.
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But not Ukraine, obviously.
Questerr said:
Yemen has been getting assaulted by the Saudis for a decade now. Why haven’t we stepped in to stop that assault?
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Because both sides are complete shit? Am I supposed to look at Houthi pirates and Saudi Royal scum and say one is the victim?
 
Cosmo said:
Fordow took years to build and improve. Tribal thinking is assuming they just moved everything in a couple of days and are back in business same as before because you saw a few trucks nearby
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Well, they didn't have to dig through granite 90 meters underground, did they?

Worst case from our POV, they're set back a few months.
 
Hamish Howl said:
Because a fleet of trucks around Fordow was reported in the media two days before the attack.

Hegseth got punked by Newsweek. Oh, the humiliation.
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What was in the trucks?
 
Questerr said:
Yemen has been getting assaulted by the Saudis for a decade now. Why haven’t we stepped in to stop that assault?
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It's going to suck being a Houthi going forward. Funding and ammunitions will probably dry up by the end of the week. And I sure as hell don't see Russia stepping into help out.
 
L88 said:
What was in the trucks?
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At Fordow, in the restricted area in the middle of desert mountains, where no concentration of trucks has been seen since construction?

Fruits and vegetables, probably. 15 truckloads. The other truck was probably full of Pokemon cards or some shit.

ung.webp
 
Hamish Howl said:
Well, they didn't have to dig through granite 90 meters underground, did they?

Worst case from our POV, they're set back a few months.
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The facility they spent years building was built because they thought it would provide safety for their program, which it did (mostly). Now that the facility is out of action, it would likely take years once again for them to create the same sort of facility. Even if they magically trucked everything out of it in 2 days, the threat that led to the facility's construction didn't go anywhere. Israel can likely track the trucks' movement and conventionally attack new project sites that don't have the same level of protection as Fordow did.

Hamish Howl said:
But not Ukraine, obviously.
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Probably that and Russia having nuclear weapons, at least on paper.
 
Hamish Howl said:
At Fordow, in the restricted area in the middle of desert mountains, where no concentration of trucks has been seen since construction?

Fruits and vegetables, probably. 15 truckloads. The other truck was probably full of Pokemon cards or some shit.

View attachment 67576567
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I'm not saying I know what it is or isn't but nobody else knows what it is or is it other than probably a few truck drivers.

But from when I read it doesn't sound practical that key equipment was being moved. Which is what will be needed to finish the enrichment.
I find it hard to believe that the US NGA doesn't know exactly where the trucks went.
 
L88 said:
I'm not saying I know what it is or isn't but nobody else knows what it is or is it other than probably a few truck drivers.

I find it hard to believe that the US NGA doesn't know exactly where the trucks went.
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I imagine the Brits might have some guesses.

I don't expect Hegseth's new appointees have any clue at all, as they obviously weren't paying attention.
 
Questerr said:
How am I supposed to look at Israeli ethnic cleansers and say they are the victim?
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You aren't.

Are you and I supposed to feel bad for a state that openly practices piracy, throws gays off of buildings, and hangs 16 year old girls by the neck from construction cranes for "immodesty" (meaning they were raped and survived)?

No. No, we are not. **** 'em both, and I hope they kick the snot out of each other. Likewise between SA and the Houthis.
 
Hamish Howl said:
You aren't.

Are you and I supposed to feel bad for a state that openly practices piracy, throws gays off of buildings, and hangs 16 year old girls by the neck from construction cranes for "immodesty" (meaning they were raped and survived)?

No. No, we are not. **** 'em both, and I hope they kick the snot out of each other. Likewise between SA and the Houthis.
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So then you agree the US launched a war of aggression on Iran, yes? We weren’t defending Israel from “assault”?
 
L88 said:
Was the attack successful? President Trump said that “Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.” The Washington Post reports on Iranian officials saying that “the facilities that were struck had been evacuated and that nuclear material was moved elsewhere.” The New York Post reports Iranian officials saying that “only a part of the area was attacked.” The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said “initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction,” but that “final battle damage [assessments] will take some time.”

At least one report indicates the presence of trucks at Fordow just before the strike, raising the possibility that key items and/or materials may have been removed in anticipation. Relocating a substantial amount of heavy machinery (e.g., centrifuges) would be a time-intensive activity that could not realistically have been done in such a short time frame.

Actual battle damage assessment will be difficult; the attack sought to destroy equipment and facilities that are underground and thus invisible to overhead reconnaissance. Those outside Iran are unlikely to be given access to damaged facilities to see the results. That is, we won’t know precisely how effective the attack was in destroying a deeply buried facility, and the Iranians won’t be letting anyone in to examine it.
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So what is the real impact of these attacks? In the short term, assuming the attacks were militarily successful, the Iran nuclear program has clearly been set back by amounts of time ranging from several months to several years, depending on the assumptions made about how far along Iran had been in its progress towards building a nuclear weapon.

But whether the Iranian nuclear program has been permanently crippled is a different question, the answer to which involves a most important uncertainty: Will there be regime change in Iran? If there is no regime change, it’s hard to believe that the current rulers of Iran will accept this setback as establishing a permanent (new) status quo, and in the future, it’s hard to see what incentive Iran has in accepting a diplomatic constraint on its nuclear ambitions. That is: Future political or diplomatic arrangements with Iran on its nuclear program will be most unlikely. Thus, without regime change, the US attack last week is likely to be just the first of many such attacks in the future—a periodic mowing of Iran’s nuclear lawn, so to speak.


thebulletin.org

The US strike on Iran’s nuclear sites: preliminary thoughts on the outcomes

The US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities have likely inflicted significant damage in the short term. But the technical challenges of destroying deeply buried sites, the possibility of relocated materials, the impossibility of destroying Iranian expertise about uranium enrichment and weapons...
thebulletin.org thebulletin.org
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Whether or not the attack was successful isn't the difference maker. Israel has done more damage with their infiltration of the government, and creating confusion and distrust. The Ayatollah has been driven into hiding, and now looks weak to the people.

Did the enriched uranium get destroyed? Nobody knows for sure, not yet anyway. A competent BDA would have to assume no. Has the nuclear program been disrupted? Absolutely. Even if the uranium survived, they can't do anything with it, right now any way.

If Iran surprises everyone, and successfully tests a weapon, they will be in the same place everyone else in the nuclear family is. A suicide pact.
 
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