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Trump will win the election and is more popular than Obama in 2008, AI system finds

soot

soot

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I'm sorry if this is a double post but I wasn't able to find it elsewhere so I'm assuming it's unique to the topic.

I thought it was pretty interesting.

Despite numerous poll results to the contrary this research (I guess it would be) seems to bear out what I'm seeing in "real life" anecdotally (and, incidentally, what Trump has been claiming on the campaign trail).

I'm originally from New Jersey, something of a liberal hotbed, and the large majority of my friends are college-educated professionals and also from NJ (at least originally).

I've also got some serious deep red redneck friends who I served with in the Army but they're very much in the minority, maybe thirty or forty guys in total out of several hundred social media "friends" and not all the Army guys are Trump supporters.

My social media feeds, as they relate to politics, are pro-Trump at a rate of something like three or four to one - easily. Let me say that again, EASILY.

I'll certainly concede, and the full article even mentions, that there are limitations to this type of research and even though it's never happened before (in the 12 years this system has been analyzing elections) it could simply be wrong this time.

I guess we'll have to wait and see, just as with any other poll.

But I thought it was pretty interesting because of its novelty (and because it's right).

Trump will win the election and is more popular than Obama in 2008, AI system finds

An artificial intelligence system that correctly predicted the last three U.S. presidential elections puts Republican nominee Donald Trump ahead of Democrat rival Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House.

It takes in 20 million data points from public platforms including Google, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in the U.S. and then analyzes the information to create predictions.

The AI system was created in 2004, so it has been getting smarter all the time. It had already correctly predicted the results of the Democratic and Republican Primaries.

"If Trump loses, it will defy the data trend for the first time in the last 12 years since Internet engagement began in full earnest," Rai wrote in a report sent to CNBC.
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Re: Trump will win the election and is more popular than Obama in 2008, AI system fin

soot said:
I'm sorry if this is a double post but I wasn't able to find it elsewhere so I'm assuming it's unique to the topic.

I thought it was pretty interesting.

Despite numerous poll results to the contrary this research (I guess it would be) seems to bear out what I'm seeing in "real life" anecdotally (and, incidentally, what Trump has been claiming on the campaign trail).

I'm originally from New Jersey, something of a liberal hotbed, and the large majority of my friends are college-educated professionals and also from NJ (at least originally).

I've also got some serious deep red redneck friends who I served with in the Army but they're very much in the minority, maybe thirty or forty guys in total out of several hundred social media "friends" and not all the Army guys are Trump supporters.

My social media feeds, as they relate to politics, are pro-Trump at a rate of something like three or four to one - easily. Let me say that again, EASILY.

I'll certainly concede, and the full article even mentions, that there are limitations to this type of research and even though it's never happened before (in the 12 years this system has been analyzing elections) it could simply be wrong this time.

I guess we'll have to wait and see, just as with any other poll.

But I thought it was pretty interesting because of its novelty (and because it's right).
Click to expand...

If a computer model predicted it then it must be wrong.

Spoken as one who has been wrong at every turn of this election and primary season, so YMMV.

At this point in the 1980 election Carter was 9 points ahead of Reagan. Reagan went on to win by a huge landslide. Reagan was reviled as a Nazi, a stupid boob, an idiot, a warmonger, a third rate movie actor, and you name it, by the elites in the press and the political class, who hated and feared Reagan with the intensity of a thousand suns. So if computer models and certain experts are predicting a stunning reversal this year they may not be wrong.

I remember a joke from that election: What's flat, black, and glows in the dark? Iran after Reagan is elected!
 
Re: Trump will win the election and is more popular than Obama in 2008, AI system fin

This is the craziest election of my lifetime. I wouldn't put odds on any outcome at this point.
 
Re: Trump will win the election and is more popular than Obama in 2008, AI system fin

And this was before the FBI reopened the investigation...
 
Re: Trump will win the election and is more popular than Obama in 2008, AI system fin

Erod said:
And this was before the FBI reopened the investigation...
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Are you sure about that?
 
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