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Trump/Harris pre-debate RCP data capture

gbg3

gbg3

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I like to do this before significant and potentially impactful polling/election events. So, the debate is in a few hours and here are the charts for Trump vs Harris, swing state averages, and betting markets (8 markets) averaged.

With this info, we can see how polling compares in a week or so and how betting markets compare even sooner.

Screenshot 2024-09-10 164801.pngScreenshot 2024-09-10 164845.pngScreenshot 2024-09-10 164920.png
 
Bok Tuklo said:
RCP is a rightwing site so grain of salt and all that.
Click to expand...
RCP is right down the center. Of course, you probably think anything other than Daily Kos is right wing.

AllSides Media Bias Chart

The AllSides Media Bias Chart is an easy way for you to identify political bias in the news so you can be better equipped to navigate our increasingly polarized media landscape.
www.allsides.com www.allsides.com
 
JMB1911A1 said:
RCP is right down the center. Of course, you probably think anything other than Daily Kos is right wing.

AllSides Media Bias Chart

The AllSides Media Bias Chart is an easy way for you to identify political bias in the news so you can be better equipped to navigate our increasingly polarized media landscape.
www.allsides.com www.allsides.com
Click to expand...

AllSides is a rightwing site so grain of salt and all that.
 
Bok Tuklo said:
AllSides is a rightwing site so grain of salt and all that.
Click to expand...
So, everyone you don’t like is a right wing site. I wonder how loud that echo chamber you inhabit gets.
 
Bok Tuklo said:
RCP is a rightwing site so grain of salt and all that.
Click to expand...
The polls are what they are. They are simply collected and averaged. RCP doesn't make any adjustments. Your claim isn't even logical in this capacity.

RCP also generates articles. One might have a reason to view their articles and opinion pieces as leaning left or right but, again, your claim is irrelevant to the simple process of poll collection and averaging.
 
RCP 538 , Nate Silver....it is all so close it matters not at this point...the only thing that matters is turnout. 30K votes in 3 states in a country of 300 million is nuts
 
gbg3 said:
The polls are what they are
Click to expand...

Do you believe all polls are conducted exactly the same using the exact same methods and with the same intellectual honesty and rigor?
 
I'm pretty much sticking with 538 and maybe Center for Politics. It's hard for me to trust Silver now that he's hooked up with Thiel.
 
Bok Tuklo said:
Do you believe all polls are conducted exactly the same using the exact same methods and with the same intellectual honesty and rigor?
Click to expand...
Gosh no. We'd just need one single poll if each used the "exact same methods". Once the election outcome is known, we learn which pollsters got the closest to the actual outcome. Respectable pollsters are motivated to sit in those "best" or near the best positions - and they design their methodology carefully and accordingly.
 
Demon said:
I'm pretty much sticking with 538 and maybe Center for Politics. It's hard for me to trust Silver now that he's hooked up with Thiel.
Click to expand...
Please grab whatever charts most appeal to you and post them here. Again, the more the better. If you'd like to make a comparison post-debate, this would be a great thread to add/include your favorites (pre and post debate).
 
JMB1911A1 said:
RCP is right down the center. Of course, you probably think anything other than Daily Kos is right wing.

AllSides Media Bias Chart

The AllSides Media Bias Chart is an easy way for you to identify political bias in the news so you can be better equipped to navigate our increasingly polarized media landscape.
www.allsides.com www.allsides.com
Click to expand...

RCP battlegrounds average has PA as an exact tie (47.6-47.6).

No toss-up map assigns Pennsylvania to . . . Trump.
 
Callen said:
RCP 538 , Nate Silver....it is all so close it matters not at this point...the only thing that matters is turnout. 30K votes in 3 states in a country of 300 million is nuts
Click to expand...
Yeah, the polls are a bit of navel gazing no matter which candidate people support. What is clear is it's a tight race so far. If Harris stares blankly into space the entire debate or Trump insults Harris' mother, it might not be.

:)
 
gbg3 said:
I like to do this before significant and potentially impactful polling/election events. So, the debate is in a few hours and here are the charts for Trump vs Harris, swing state averages, and betting markets (8 markets) averaged.

With this info, we can see how polling compares in a week or so and how betting markets compare even sooner.

View attachment 67531627View attachment 67531628View attachment 67531629
Click to expand...
RCP leans right, but ok, have your moment because Traitor Trump is, at this moment, shitting himself on national tv.
 
gbg3 said:
The polls are what they are. They are simply collected and averaged. RCP doesn't make any adjustments. Your claim isn't even logical in this capacity.

RCP also generates articles. One might have a reason to view their articles and opinion pieces as leaning left or right but, again, your claim is irrelevant to the simple process of poll collection and averaging.
Click to expand...

RCP cherry picks what polls to include and to not include. It includes all the GOP funded polls to specifically suit a particular narrative. It's exactly what happened in 2022 when those idiots were predicting 54 senate seats for the GOP and a massive "red wave" that never materialized.
 
I predict that the OP will steadily reduce the frequency of her poll posts.
 
Betting markets moved significantly since the debate, in Harris's favor. Pre-debate, Trump had a 5 point average lead. This morning Harris has a 4.5 average lead - so a big swing of 9.5 points in Harris's favor.


Screenshot 2024-09-11 090436.webp
 
How many of those are based in the US? My understanding is they are based oversees. Do we know if those are American voters?
 
One poll that moved decisively against Trump after the debate is the value of DJT shares. Huge crash showing that the markets are even more convinced now that Trump will lose in Nov.
 
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