Trade deal with EU and U.S. reached

[Diving Mullah]

Trump and Ursula having a presser right now. They are both very pleased.

It is always fun to play shell game with uniformed and simple people...but instead of looking under the cup, lets look at what is in the sleeves

Category	Trump 2025 Deal	Earlier U.S.–EU Approaches
Tariff Strategy	15% flat tariff; high steel tariffs	Obama: near zero via TTIP Biden: tariff suspension
Energy Trade	$750B EU energy purchases (oil, LNG, nuclear)	Biden pushed for renewables; EU resisted U.S. oil under Obama
Negotiation Tactic	Ultimatum-style pressure + short deadline	Obama: multilateral, diplomatic Biden: cooperative forums
Investment	$600B EU corporate commitment	Previous deals emphasized regulatory reform more than cash inflow
Tone	“Transactional & coercive”	Obama/Biden: “Rules-based & multilate

Tariffs:
This essentially means the cost of everything imported from Europe will go up by 15%. Hooray for us—we get to pay more for the same stuff! What a win.


Energy Trade:
Let’s be clear—this shift began under Obama, when Europe wanted to reduce its dependence on Russian energy after Crimea. But sure, let’s give credit to the guy least deserving of it. I believe MAGA folks call that “DEI” when others do it.


Negotiation Tactic:
Anyone who understands even basic game theory (and I highly recommend learning about it) can see this approach is shortsighted and self-defeating. This will backfire—if not now, then soon.


Investment:
This part is... curious. I don’t know the exact mechanics, but given Trump’s well-documented tendency to seek personal gain in every deal, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up the biggest beneficiary of the bribes—I mean “investments.”


Tone:
Once again, this is all a shell game. As soon as the U.S. loses its leverage—or the political winds shift—the entire framework collapses. See game theory. Again.


Diving Mullah

 

[Callen]

Canadians aren't having meltdowns about tariffs placed on their exports to us because they are genuinely feeling that our U.S. citizens will be the ones "paying for those tariffs".

Canadians are most definitely annoyed about the tariffs placed on our exports to the US but you are right we aren't having "meltdowns" . ....and yes it is American businesses and consumers paying those tariffs. That's a fact!!!!

 

[Callen]

The energy piece is one of the best parts and will create lots of jobs!

Exactly how? What's an energy product? Building solar panels would have generated lots of energy products for export but Trump killed that. Oh well they can always buy them from China.

 

[Callen]

If Congress objected to it, they could reverse it.

As if Johnson would do that. However, once the tariffs start to impact people's wallets then perhaps they will hear their constituents and act in their interests.

 

[trixare4kids]

As if Johnson would do that. However, once the tariffs start to impact people's wallets then perhaps they will hear their constituents and act in their interests.

We’re bringing billions upon billions of revenue dollars into the US treasury.
You can stop the pearl clutching over what our American citizens will suffer.

 

[Taylor]

They are an archaic form of taxation.

Yes, and the wheel is an archaic form of facilitating transportation. Levers are an archaic form of achieving mechanical advantage. So what?

There is no debate on how they work.

Just a lot of misconceptions, as I've pointed out.

Tariffs are input costs. They are no different economically than raw materials, plant and equipment or labor.

They are input costs, yes. But the rest of your claim is a gross oversimplification.
Tariffs differ in their origin and purpose, and have a much broader macroeconomic impact among other things. Tariffs are very much a unique cost factor with wider implications

 

[Callen]

Tariffs differ in their origin and purpose, and have a much broader macroeconomic impact among other things. Tariffs are very much a unique cost factor with wider implications

Lots of big words strung together to say nothing......

 

[Callen]

I expect worldwide stock markets might respond positively tomorrow. Some of the trade deals aren't as significant as others but this one is quite a big deal - with a lot of countries all at once.

Well that post didn't age well.

 

[vesper]

Where is all of this extra US production going to come from?

The new head of the EPA Lee Zelden, has removed all the red tape put in place by the previous administration that hindered fossil fuel production. Within days of applying for a permit, now it gets issued. They have also reopened ANWR and reinstated permits. There are permits being issued for off shore drilling.

 

[CaughtInThe]

Republicans aren't even savvy enough to know when they're been screwed on energy costs.

We can't trust them on anything.

 

[forn]

As if Johnson would do that. However, once the tariffs start to impact people's wallets then perhaps they will hear their constituents and act in their interests.

If tariffs have a negative impact, I would think Trump would be the first to act. Isn't that your big slogan, TACO?

 

[BirdinHand]

Oh
Goodie.

More tariff bullshit.

 

[Sooner or Later]

They will not invest billions and take a decade to see any actual production to invest in ANWAR.

Reglatory costs are generally not excessive.

Read some of the quarterly surveys from the Dallas Fed.
Dallas Fed Energy Survey - Dallasfed.org https://share.google/IdtDYvMOuKsRAF9IB

The new head of the EPA Lee Zelden, has removed all the red tape put in place by the previous administration that hindered fossil fuel production. Within days of applying for a permit, now it gets issued. They have also reopened ANWR and reinstated permits. There are permits being issued for off shore drilling.

The new head of the EPA Lee Zelden, has removed all the red tape put in place by the previous administration that hindered fossil fuel production. Within days of applying for a permit, now it gets issued. They have also reopened ANWR and reinstated permits. There are permits being issued for off shore drilling.

The investors are forcing the public O&G companies to actually supply a ROI. Every penny of capex is being looked at closely. I seriously doubt if any major is going to invest billions into ANWAR and not see a drop of production within a 10 year time period. Today's risk is far too great.

Reduced regulation may be a good thing though it is not a major reason for the current slow production growth.

Read some of the Dallas Feds quarterly reports, in particular, the Special Questions. Cost increases due to tariffs (steel in particular) offsets any reduction in regulatory costs.

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Quarterly assessment of energy activity among oil and gas firms in the Eleventh District.

www.dallasfed.org

 

[Sooner or Later]

Look at how the O&G stocks have performed over the last 15 years of the shale revolution's drill, baby, drill business plan. It lost about a third of it's value over 15 years. As an investor would you accept that type performance? As an investor would you want to go back to drill, baby, drill? Hell, no!

 

[hooligan]

We’re bringing billions upon billions of revenue dollars into the US treasury.
You can stop the pearl clutching over what our American citizens will suffer.

Wait, so higher taxes are good now?

 

[gbg3]

Well that post didn't age well.

True, we didn't get a gain. Just a particularly boring day where the S&P went up 1 dollar, the Dow was down a little and the Nasdaq up about as much as the Dow was down. Probably yet another all-time high for the S&P and Nasdaq, but no surge or anything like that.

I feel like the market might be a bit overbought right now, so today I sold a fairly sizable chunk which was invested in a traditional IRA - so those funds will be sitting in a cash position and thus available to immediately transfer/convert to the Roth IRA as soon as I see a (hopefully) better/lower buying opportunity where I will then put that chunk to work in a more aggressive fund on the Roth side. So, I hope I'm right and we get a buying opportunity dip over the next couple months (a historically rocky time of the year for the markets). If we don't get a dip between now and the end of the year, I'll just need to buy high since I need to complete this particular conversion in this tax year.

 

[gbg3]

We’re bringing billions upon billions of revenue dollars into the US treasury.
You can stop the pearl clutching over what our American citizens will suffer.

That we are and that's a good thing. I keep thinking back to Trump running on an "External Revenue Service" concept/idea. He's executing that idea and IMO, it's going quite well. Many an economist and analyst has been surprised that their predictions of gloom and doom are not coming true at all - and several are even going as far as saying, "Trump was right."

 

[Sooner or Later]

This is from 2021. And is still accurate today.

The U.S. Shale Revolution Has Surrendered to Reality

“Drill, baby, drill is gone forever.” That was the recent assessment of Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman of the American oil industry’s future potential. As Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz is one of the most influential voices in the global oil markets. Fortune termed it a...

www.desmog.com

The U.S. Shale Revolution Has Surrendered to Reality
Fracking companies aren’t drilling as investment continues to dry up

.“Drill, baby, drill is gone forever.”

That was the recent assessment of Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman of the American oil industry’s future potential. As Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz is one of the most influential voices in the global oil markets. Fortune termed it a “bold taunt,” and a warning to U.S. frackers to not increase oil production.

The response by the U.S. producers — to shut up and take it — quietly confirms this reality. Shale oil’s era of growth appears to be over. The reason is that even as global oil demand and prices rise, the economics of the shale oil business model continue to not work. The U.S. shale industry has lost hundreds of billions of dollars in the past decade producing oil and selling it for less than it cost to produce.

This was possible because despite the losses, investors kept giving the industry money. But now investors appear to have grown tired of losing money on U.S. shale companies and new lending to the industry has dropped dramatically.

As reported this month by The Wall Street Journal, “capital markets showed little interest in funding expansive new drilling campaigns” for the U.S. shale industry. Shaia Hosseinzadeh, a partner at investment firm OnyxPoint Global Management LP, told The Journal that the problem facing fracking companies is that “they can’t access cheap capital any longer.”

More at the link.

 

[gbg3]

Wait, so higher taxes are good now?

Nope, the 2017 tax cuts were made permanent - and that was very good.

 

[Luce]

That we are and that's a good thing. I keep thinking back to Trump running on an "External Revenue Service" concept/idea. He's executing that idea and IMO, it's going quite well. Many an economist and analyst has been surprised that their predictions of gloom and doom are not coming true at all - and several are even going as far as saying, "Trump was right."

Who pays the tariffs?

 

[Callen]

True, we didn't get a gain. Just a particularly boring day where the S&P went up 1 dollar, the Dow was down a little and the Nasdaq up about as much as the Dow was down. Probably yet another all-time high for the S&P and Nasdaq, but no surge or anything like that.

I feel like the market might be a bit overbought right now, so today I sold a fairly sizable chunk which was invested in a traditional IRA - so those funds will be sitting in a cash position and thus available to immediately transfer/convert to the Roth IRA as soon as I see a (hopefully) better/lower buying opportunity where I will then put that chunk to work in a more aggressive fund on the Roth side. So, I hope I'm right and we get a buying opportunity dip over the next couple months (a historically rocky time of the year for the markets). If we don't get a dip between now and the end of the year, I'll just need to buy high since I need to complete this particular conversion in this tax year

Oh OK thanks for the insight into your investment strategy. Point is the markets don't love the deal as you thought they might

 

[Callen]

That we are and that's a good thing. I keep thinking back to Trump running on an "External Revenue Service" concept/idea. He's executing that idea and IMO, it's going quite well. Many an economist and analyst has been surprised that their predictions of gloom and doom are not coming true at all - and several are even going as far as saying, "Trump was right."

Can you please provide citations.

 

[Michael Cole]

Yes, and the wheel is an archaic form of facilitating transportation. Levers are an archaic form of achieving mechanical advantage. So what?

They are taxes. That's what.

Just a lot of misconceptions, as I've pointed out.


They are input costs, yes. But the rest of your claim is a gross oversimplification.
Tariffs differ in their origin and purpose, and have a much broader macroeconomic impact among other things. Tariffs are very much a unique cost factor with wider implications

Tariffs are input costs. Nothing more matters.

Producers don't care if the cost of steel rises because of supply chain disruptions or tariffs. The economic impact is the same. There is nothing unique about tariffs that changes this.

 

[maxparrish]

I suppose one of the positive aspects of Trump cult threads is to more fully appreciate the bottomless well of lumpen thinking that animate our current regime. For instance, the totality of "arguments" on behalf of tariffs in this thread are essentially (if not always literally) these:


"I saw Trump on TV announcing victory with a relieved EU official putting lipstick on a pig, oh praise Trump."

"Fabulous news for the country, how can economists, wall street, and most industry leaders not see Trump's simple-minded ignorance as a benefit? "

"Isn't it great the Trump got vague and puffed-up assurances by EU's current President, which is like a real contract that is enforceable on every country, right? Isn't the EU run like the US where their President is king?"

"Doesn't everyone know their promise of "vast amounts of weapons purchases" is much better than actual contracts with read payments for delivery?"

"Why, the US consumer is paying 15 percent more at this moment, so it can't be true in the future."

"Anyone, like those point-head International trade economists and most other four eyed experts, who says this isn't great are all leftists and spinning, because they hate Trump and want to see him fail".

Great stuff, no?

 

[gbg3]

Oh OK thanks for the insight into your investment strategy. Point is the markets don't love the deal as you thought they might

Your goal and point fell flat, IMO.

Had it been a big down day, it might have made sense to toss out your attempt - but it was just a meh and boring day, which made your comment 133 look rather comical. Sometimes you just try too hard - when you don't have a thing of punch or value to offer. An ability to pace yourself and exercise patience is NOT a strength you demonstrate on these forums.