Thousands of Russian Troops in Airport Push

[Cryptic]

Only road open to Mariupol is the E58 along the coast right now. Debaltseve is in the process of being cut off with about a few thousand Ukrainian forces stuck in the area. It's going so bad right now for Ukraine.

According to Russian source, but not according to Ukrainian sources. Rather:

-After a large expenditure of lives over close to five months, rebels managed to capture both terminal buildings (whats left of them). Though about 18 Ukrainians were killed and 20 captured (volunteers and regulars) in the final assault, they withdrew intact and still hold some areas in the airport, and several buldings in the immediate vicinity.

-The rebel airforce is destroyed on the ground.

-Russian attacks at Debaltseve are serious, but have been driven back.

The Ukrainians readily announce all casualties daily. Since the Russians / rebels dont even bother to announce their fatalities, nor do the Russians give their dead public funerals, I tend to place more credibility with the Ukrainians. I wonder what new sanctions are going to be in place soon?

 

[MrFirst]

The rebel airforce?

The only rebel airforce that was shown in media was one old L-29 taken from Lugansk museum of aviation. This L-29 ran along the taxiway of the aviation museum, and it even hasn't taken off a single time. Even for journalists invited to watch this "airforce". Reports about "rebel airforce" was a pure bluff.



I have no idea what the brave Ukrainians managed to "destroy on the ground".

 

[austrianecon]

According to Russian source, but not according to Ukrainian sources. Rather:

-After a large expenditure of lives over close to five months, rebels managed to capture both terminal buildings (whats left of them). Though about 18 Ukrainians were killed and 20 captured (volunteers and regulars) in the final assault, they withdrew intact and still hold some areas in the airport, and several buldings in the immediate vicinity.

According to Ukrainian sources??? As in the Government? If you truly believe that just 18 Ukrainians died in the take over the airport, I got beach front property for you in Arizona. Kyiv Post ran with this story two days ago.

-The rebel airforce is destroyed on the ground.

Where? Ukraine makes a lot of assertions with no evidence. Then why would NAF need an airforce? It's got Ukraine on the run from ground weapons.

-Russian attacks at Debaltseve are serious, but have been driven back.

LOL! You also said that Ukraine would hold on to the airport. Debatlseve is lost and 90% cut off right now. Read in the article, and that's from Kyiv Post a pro-Ukrainian paper.

The Ukrainians readily announce all casualties daily. Since the Russians / rebels dont even bother to announce their fatalities, nor do the Russians give their dead public funerals, I tend to place more credibility with the Ukrainians. I wonder what new sanctions are going to be in place soon?

Not according to Kyiv Post and Combat Medics and Hospitals. Ukraine is flat out lying (just as NAF is). There is absolutely no way they are "averaging" 1 to 5 deaths per day. There will be no more sanctions. EU doesn't have the votes anymore.

 

[Fallenangel]

Your favorite source, censor.net states that Putin was paying artuillery and armour specialists upto 30,000 dollars for a contract. As a side note, this would coorespond to Blackwater wages (adjusted for cost of living differences and economic levels) for desirable specialists employed in Iraq and Afghanistsan.

Please, get another source for information, even if it is some other heavily pro-Ukrainian source - as there are very little bs spreaders that reach the level of censor.net propaganda. You constantly read and then unfortunately repeat false info ranging from airport fighting assessment & Graham's twits, to minimizing Ukrainian losses to ridiculously low level & "air-force" destruction...

Anyways, without a link to the original censor.net article I still don't know what you/they are talking about regarding "Putin's offer"...?!?!

I agree, there is no equivelent in the broad sense between Jihaders and Iraq / Donbass volunteers. What is equivelant is that a sense of social loss (loss of prestige) coupled with limited economic oppurtunities motivates some young men to fight for causes that they would not otherwise have been inclined to. Many Jihaders are not life long religous fanatics. Rather, they are largely secular people who want a cause- any cause, to give their life meaning. The Paris attackers were secular backgrounds.

These causes can be the "jihad", Donbass, or Iraq. As for Iraq, I think the numbers of these men were lower than the other categories because the US system still affords sufficinet oppurtunites to that Iraq was not the only option for "angry young men". As Russia has fewer oppurtunities, my guess is that the level of angry young men in Donbass is probably higher.

Despite the crappy economic situation fighting in Donbass is far from being the only option for Russian young men.
The thing is that the rebel forces are a conglomerate of young, old and middle-age men (and women) from various backgrounds so to just categorize them as "angry young men" is again a gross oversimplification which has very little to do with the reality on the ground. Some units "young", some are older and have SF and other veterans in their ranks, some are a mix.
Of course younger men generally would have more motivation and less things that constrain them to go and fight in wars, but that is pretty much where the similarity to Jihadists ends imo.

What Putin should realize is some of these men are going to return home not only angry, but armed. They will then find the same "System" that they left.

Actually, there is already a similar problem that Russia is dealing with, as young men from the Caucasus go to "study" abroad and return to their homes radicalized and with knowledge of firearms, explosives use etc. so, FSB already has some experience with such issues.
Moreover, you forget that the rebel ranks were (and are still being) cleaned from people with "wrong" ideological motivation and backgrounds - such as for instance Strelkov and his followers, and replaced by people with a pro-Kremlin ideology.

Fallen.

 

[Cryptic]

Where? Ukraine makes a lot of assertions with no evidence. Then why would NAF need an airforce? It's got Ukraine on the run from ground weapons.

I dont know, why not ask the rebels? They boasted of having an airforce that was due to go operational.

LOL! You also said that Ukraine would hold on to the airport. Debatlseve is lost and 90% cut off right now. Read in the article, and that's from Kyiv Post a pro-Ukrainian paper.

Are you the guy that claimed Ukrainians would die of cold, and do it in mass this winter? That aside, here is an independent source detailling what is happening at Debatlseve:
Is the fall of Debaltseve imminent? – A threat assessment. | Conflict Report

Ukraine will lose the town via being "ground down" in the coming weeks or months- unless the Ukrainians successfully counter attack, or the Russians no longer resupply men and material.

There will be no more sanctions. EU doesn't have the votes anymore.

The EU does not need the votes (though they probably have those as Greece and who?- Slovakia are not going to make a difference). Rather, Germany, France, the US, Canada etc. can implement new sanctions as individuals. The results are near the same.

Not according to Kyiv Post and Combat Medics and Hospitals. Ukraine is flat out lying (just as NAF is). There is absolutely no way they are "averaging" 1 to 5 deaths per day.

Sure they can.

Despite both sides claiming battles between thousands of combatants employing heavy weapons, I have a sneaking suspiscion that both sides have limited numbers of fully willing -and thus fully engaged combatants (those willing to man forward positions, and those willing to assault actively defended positions). As a result, most of the fighting is done by relatively few people and this keeps fatalities down.

There have been hints of this on both sides: A ukrainian paratrooper company remained to defend Savur Mogila after several entire batallions refused and retreated. Ukrainian volunteer batallions have been repeatedly moved around the Donbass, most likely because some regular army units are reluctant to actively fight. Likewise, a series of rebel "final assaults" on the airport terminals fizzled out quickly once it became apparent that it was being actively defended. Moscow has had to replace commanders who were not offensively minded and there are some (or many) rebel groups loitering in rear areas to the extent that the Russians have refused to pay people unless they are on the front lines.

Please, get another source for information, even if it is some other heavily pro-Ukrainian source - as there are very little bs spreaders that reach the level of censor.net propaganda. You constantly read and then unfortunately repeat false info ranging from airport fighting assessment & Graham's twits, to minimizing Ukrainian losses to ridiculously low level & "air-force" destruction...

Censor net maybe biased, but at least they report fatalities and set backs, something the rebels dont. As for minimized Ukrainian casualties, I think the reported figures are accurate. My guess is that of the thousands of combatants on both sides in the area of the airport, only a fraction are actively fighting. Thus, most of the casualties on both sides are in these relatively small groups.

 

[Fallenangel]

Censor net maybe biased, but at least they report fatalities and set backs, something the rebels dont. As for minimized Ukrainian casualties, I think the reported figures are accurate. My guess is that of the thousands of combatants on both sides in the area of the airport, only a fraction are actively fighting. Thus, most of the casualties on both sides are in these relatively small groups.

Rebels also report casualties and dead, so I don't know which rebel news sites you were/are reading - but both sides indeed spread a lot of propaganda.

However, you can't be seriously believing the reports of a "news site" that posts things like the following:
Enemy's losses on Jan. 17 and 18 estimated at 150 killed, large number of military equipment was also destroyed - Butusov
For each of the deceased Ukrainian military has killed 50 militants - Biryukov
Over the past three days the Russian army has huge losses: 382 people were killed, 500 - wounded - Russian human rights activist

Fallen.

 

[austrianecon]

I dont know, why not ask the rebels? They boasted of having an airforce that was due to go operational.

You made the claim, not I.

Are you the guy that claimed Ukrainians would die of cold, and do it in mass this winter? That aside, here is an independent source detailling what is happening at Debatlseve:
Is the fall of Debaltseve imminent? – A threat assessment. | Conflict Report

No, I said it would be a long cold winter and it has been. ConflictReport is not independent source.

Ukraine will lose the town via being "ground down" in the coming weeks or months- unless the Ukrainians successfully counter attack, or the Russians no longer resupply men and material.

LOL, gap was closed, per Ukrainian sources today. They can't cant evacuate their wounded.

The EU does not need the votes (though they probably have those as Greece and who?- Slovakia are not going to make a difference). Rather, Germany, France, the US, Canada etc. can implement new sanctions as individuals. The results are near the same.

EU itself needs all member to agree. Greece will agree to keep sanctions but not expand them. Germany and France can't sanction without EU per EU rules. US can't really sanction anything else and Canada, seriously? The sanctions laid out before.. are as tough as they are gonna get. So don't hope for anything else as EU can't risk making their economy even worse since Eastern EU countries and even Germany rely on trade on Russia. Greece also needs Russia.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Even Lukashenko of Belarus is wary of Russia's Crimea duplicity. Minsk will now view the deployment of another nation's armed groups, irregular forces, mercenaries or regular military units in the country as a military attack, regardless of whether or not it was accompanied by a declaration of war. The new legislation takes effect on February 1 and is available here

 

[Gladiator]

Please, get another source for information, even if it is some other heavily pro-Ukrainian source - as there are very little bs spreaders that reach the level of censor.net propaganda. You constantly read and then unfortunately repeat false info ranging from airport fighting assessment & Graham's twits, to minimizing Ukrainian losses to ridiculously low level & "air-force" destruction...

Anyways, without a link to the original censor.net article I still don't know what you/they are talking about regarding "Putin's offer"...?!?!



Despite the crappy economic situation fighting in Donbass is far from being the only option for Russian young men.
The thing is that the rebel forces are a conglomerate of young, old and middle-age men (and women) from various backgrounds so to just categorize them as "angry young men" is again a gross oversimplification which has very little to do with the reality on the ground. Some units "young", some are older and have SF and other veterans in their ranks, some are a mix.
Of course younger men generally would have more motivation and less things that constrain them to go and fight in wars, but that is pretty much where the similarity to Jihadists ends imo.



Actually, there is already a similar problem that Russia is dealing with, as young men from the Caucasus go to "study" abroad and return to their homes radicalized and with knowledge of firearms, explosives use etc. so, FSB already has some experience with such issues.
Moreover, you forget that the rebel ranks were (and are still being) cleaned from people with "wrong" ideological motivation and backgrounds - such as for instance Strelkov and his followers, and replaced by people with a pro-Kremlin ideology.

Fallen.

Russia's objective is to defeat the Ukraine army.

"If that is the case, then Kiev’s best way out of Putin’s trap may be to withdraw from the Donbas territories controlled by Russian troops and separatists. The goal would be to turn them not into autonomous federal units within a weak Ukraine, as Putin desires, but into an independent entity, as he pointedly does not. Having turned the tables on Putin, Kiev could then request Western assistance for enhancing its military’s defensive capacities, including building fortifications along its new frontier with Russia and the rump Donbas. Russia and its proxies would then have to clean up the mess they made in the Donbas, Ukraine would be free to pursue integration with the West and the world, and the United States and Europe could breathe a little easier, knowing that the bloodshed had come to an end."


Alexander J. Motyl | Why Ukraine Should Withdraw from Russian-Held Donbas | Foreign Affairs



"Some 8,000 Ukrainian troops are believed to be surrounded near the village of Debaltsevo in Donbass, as militia units cut off the only road linking the pocket to Kiev-held territory. The servicemen have been offered the chance to surrender.

The forces of the People’s Republic of Donetsk (DPR) have stormed and captured the town of Uglegorsk, a stronghold of the Ukrainian army in the east of the country used for communication and supply. It is about 10 kilometers from Debaltsevo. "




http://rt.com/news/227899-ukraine-troops-debaltsevo-trap/

 

[Fallenangel]

Russia's objective is to defeat the Ukraine army.

No. If Russia wanted the defeat of the Ukrainian NG and military it would have achieved that in August/September when "Northern wind" was blowing all over Easter-Ukraine.

"If that is the case, then Kiev’s best way out of Putin’s trap may be to withdraw from the Donbas territories controlled by Russian troops and separatists. The goal would be to turn them not into autonomous federal units within a weak Ukraine, as Putin desires, but into an independent entity, as he pointedly does not. Having turned the tables on Putin, Kiev could then request Western assistance for enhancing its military’s defensive capacities, including building fortifications along its new frontier with Russia and the rump Donbas. Russia and its proxies would then have to clean up the mess they made in the Donbas, Ukraine would be free to pursue integration with the West and the world, and the United States and Europe could breathe a little easier, knowing that the bloodshed had come to an end."


Alexander J. Motyl | Why Ukraine Should Withdraw from Russian-Held Donbas | Foreign Affairs

"Some 8,000 Ukrainian troops are believed to be surrounded near the village of Debaltsevo in Donbass, as militia units cut off the only road linking the pocket to Kiev-held territory. The servicemen have been offered the chance to surrender.

The forces of the People’s Republic of Donetsk (DPR) have stormed and captured the town of Uglegorsk, a stronghold of the Ukrainian army in the east of the country used for communication and supply. It is about 10 kilometers from Debaltsevo. "


Thousands of Ukrainian troops thought to be trapped in Donbass ? RT News

The first article you posted is from August and describes a scenario which is currently even more unlikely than it was back in August.

The second article is from RT - lets say they tend to exaggerate things quite a bit.
The situation around Debaltsevo is bad for the Ukrainian army and NG, however, thus far it is not the second Ilovaysk. Unfortunately, civilians living in the area are those that suffer the most.

Fallen.

 

[Rogue Valley]

The situation around Debaltsevo is bad for the Ukrainian army and NG, however, thus far it is not the second Ilovaysk. Unfortunately, civilians living in the area are those that suffer the most.

Agreed. Debaltseve has been without power/water/gas for two weeks. Virtually every street has artillery damage. Ukraine has six shuttle buses ferrying out citizens who wish to leave, but the journey across damaged, rutted, icy roads through no-mans-land is extremely hazardous. The United Nations on Friday voiced concern about the deteriorating situation in Debaltseve and other densely populated areas where intense fighting is going on. Neal Walker, the U.N. Humanitarian Coordinator in Ukraine, has called for an immediate humanitarian truce to allow humanitarian assistance and evacuation of civilians.

 

[Quag]

Classic ask for more (i.e., entire coastal Ukrainian territory) in order to take what was never yours (i.e., Crimea alone) approach.

Disagree Putin wants eastern Ukraine as well, heck he'd take all of the Ukraine if he could.

 

[Gladiator]

No. If Russia wanted the defeat of the Ukrainian NG and military it would have achieved that in August/September when "Northern wind" was blowing all over Easter-Ukraine.



The first article you posted is from August and describes a scenario which is currently even more unlikely than it was back in August.

The second article is from RT - lets say they tend to exaggerate things quite a bit.
The situation around Debaltsevo is bad for the Ukrainian army and NG, however, thus far it is not the second Ilovaysk. Unfortunately, civilians living in the area are those that suffer the most.

Fallen.

So your agree that Russia has a plan to continue to encourage the Rebel Separatists to continue disruptive military strikes once a week, or once a month, just to keep Ukraine in chaos?



//

 

[Fallenangel]

So your agree that Russia has a plan to continue to encourage the Rebel Separatists to continue disruptive military strikes once a week, or once a month, just to keep Ukraine in chaos?
//

No.
Russia would simply do what it sees as fitting to protect its' interests in the region, and Russia's ruling elites would do the same to remain in power.

Fallen.

 

[DDD]

Disagree Putin wants eastern Ukraine as well, heck he'd take all of the Ukraine if he could.

Looking at what Russia attempted to do with Yugoslavia (i.e., it would probably be annexed too if it did not dissolve) then I would say that this thirsty medieval conquering Slav would wish to take all over Europe too if he could.

 

[DDD]

Russia's objective is to defeat the Ukraine army.

"If that is the case, then Kiev’s best way out of Putin’s trap may be to withdraw from the Donbas territories controlled by Russian troops and separatists. The goal would be to turn them not into autonomous federal units within a weak Ukraine, as Putin desires, but into an independent entity, as he pointedly does not. Having turned the tables on Putin, Kiev could then request Western assistance for enhancing its military’s defensive capacities, including building fortifications along its new frontier with Russia and the rump Donbas. Russia and its proxies would then have to clean up the mess they made in the Donbas, Ukraine would be free to pursue integration with the West and the world, and the United States and Europe could breathe a little easier, knowing that the bloodshed had come to an end."


Alexander J. Motyl | Why Ukraine Should Withdraw from Russian-Held Donbas | Foreign Affairs

I call that a bad idea.

The more recessions the more bold Russia gets and the more territories it seeks.

No.
Russia would simply do what it sees as fitting to protect its' interests in the region, and Russia's ruling elites would do the same to remain in power.

Fallen.

And the interest is basically conquering foreign territories like in the medieval ages, is it not?

 

[MrFirst]

I call that a bad idea.

The more recessions the more bold Russia gets and the more territories it seeks.



And the interest is basically conquering foreign territories like in the medieval ages, is it not?

I've already told you how it's funny to hear such a laughable statement from a resident of Kosovo.

After you free Serbian Kosovo and Metohija from NATO :2usflag: occupation we'll talk to you about "conquering foreign territories like in the medieval ages". :beer:

 

[DDD]

I've already told you how it's funny to hear such a laughable statement from a resident of Kosovo.

After you free Serbian Kosovo and Metohija from NATO :2usflag: occupation we'll talk to you about "conquering foreign territories like in the medieval ages". :beer:

I have also stated the obvious flaw in that reasoning: When did NATO annexed Dardania?

 

[Fallenangel]

And the interest is basically conquering foreign territories like in the medieval ages, is it not?

Short answer - no.

Fallen.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Short answer - no.

But Putin is invested in fostering "frozen-conflicts" in neighbor states interested in leaving the traditional Russian sphere. No?

 

[Fallenangel]

But Putin is invested in fostering "frozen-conflicts" in neighbor states interested in leaving the traditional Russian sphere. No?

No. Russia's political elites are invested in whatever is promoting their interests and the interests of Russia as they see it.
You...well and most of the so-called Western "experts on post-Soviet Russia" really need to get off that "omnipotent/omniscient Putin in Russia" concept.

Fallen.

 

[Rogue Valley]

You...well and most of the so-called Western "experts on post-Soviet Russia" really need to get off that "omnipotent/omniscient Putin in Russia" concept.

You assume I am "Western". Although Putin doesn't rule Russia in a vacuum, he is the highest elected official in Russia and the proverbial buck lands on his desk.

 

[Ahlevah]

Even men from small towns in Ural went to fight for what they believe is right, and the amount of money and equipment being acquired through various donations is also quite amazing.

So who donated the SA-11 missiles and Buk missile launching system photographed in Donsetsk, Ukraine on July 17th, 2014?

https://www.bellingcat.com/wp-conte...paratists-Buk-A-Bellingcat-Investigation1.pdf

 

[Fallenangel]

So who donated the SA-11 missiles and Buk missile launching system photographed in Donsetsk, Ukraine on July 17th, 2014?

https://www.bellingcat.com/wp-conte...paratists-Buk-A-Bellingcat-Investigation1.pdf

How Elliot's report has anything to do with what you've quoted me saying?!?

Fallen.

 

[Fallenangel]

You assume I am "Western". Although Putin doesn't rule Russia in a vacuum, he is the highest elected official in Russia and the proverbial buck lands on his desk.

I just listed you with the "Westerners" as from our short engagements you seem to share similar views to the ones exhibited by those "Western experts".
Of course Putin is the highest elected official and most of the decisions regarding Russia's future would go through him or would be made by him, but the point is exactly that he doesn't rule in vacuum, he lives among multiple "advisers", "friends" and "frenemies" that can act on their own.

Fallen.