This Is Where the AGW Nonsense Gets Buried Once and for All [W:92]

[Earthling]

Global Warming Would Reduce Hurricanes
Posted on November 11, 2013 by stevengoddard

Venus is very hot, but has no weather – because it has a uniform surface temperature.

Global warming causes the poles to warm much more than the tropics. This reduces the potential difference in energy between the poles and the tropics, which reduces the amount of heat flow which can occur in the atmosphere. If the poles and equator were at the same temperature, there would be no storms – the Earth’s heat engine would shut down.

Actual scientists understand this, which is why climate scientists don’t – and make idiotic claims like big typhoons being caused by global warming.

 

[sawyerloggingon]

Dont forget the devastating tornados that went though Illinois this week. Tornadoes and such a powerful storm in mid November! I'm sure thats just a random occurence... Increased energy and heat in the atmosphere certainly didnt play a role, right?
:roll:

Right, there have never been devastating tornadoes before we started using fossil fuels.:roll:

 

[Threegoofs]

And you can't prove it was either... And mine costs nothing, while yours will if the UN has it's say...

WUWT is just as viable as your NATGEO link..

Ah. Now I see what you mean. Your lack of clarity makes your posts a tad difficult to interpret.

You mean that scientists (not "I'... I dont do any original research in this area. Maybe another indicator of your mal-understanding of science?) cant prove that warming causes more intense storms? Thats absurd.

Again... warmth is heat. Heat is energy. Storms are weather patterns that have lots of energy. That energy is obtained from more heat in the atmosphere and more heat in the ocean. Its a basic scientific fact that a tropical storm will intensify when it is fed with warmer water and will lessen when tempered by cooler water below it. I suppose I could find some original proof, but it woudl be sort of like trying to find proof that rain contains water.

 

[gslack]

Can't prove what?

And yes, I appreciate the fact that you consider National Geographic on the level of a denier blog run by an ex TV weatherman. It says reams about your judgement.

You can't prove the storms were caused by AGW.. NATGEO is not a climate research facility, and that being the case when they start speaking out on climate change I give them as much credit as I would Mickey Mouse..

 

[gslack]

Ah. Now I see what you mean. Your lack of clarity makes your posts a tad difficult to interpret.

You mean that scientists (not "I'... I dont do any original research in this area. Maybe another indicator of your mal-understanding of science?) cant prove that warming causes more intense storms? Thats absurd.

Again... warmth is heat. Heat is energy. Storms are weather patterns that have lots of energy. That energy is obtained from more heat in the atmosphere and more heat in the ocean. Its a basic scientific fact that a tropical storm will intensify when it is fed with warmer water and will lessen when tempered by cooler water below it. I suppose I could find some original proof, but it woudl be sort of like trying to find proof that rain contains water.

No silly prove that those specific storms you posted and tried to claim were caused by AGW.. THOSE STORMS... Get it yet? You made the claim they were caused by AGW, now prove it or admit you can't and stop the dancing.

 

[Lord of Planar]

Hurricane frequency:
View attachment 67157023

A possible interpretation of that graph is that as we increased the numbers of satellites, we saw more occurrences of the strong ones. At some point, when we could see everything, we might be seeing a small downward trend for the severe ones that was there all along.

We really need hundreds or thousands of years of accurate data to do more than educated guesses based of the bias of grant money.

 

[Commie]

Global Warming Would Reduce Hurricanes
Posted on November 11, 2013 by stevengoddard

Venus is very hot, but has no weather – because it has a uniform surface temperature.

Global warming causes the poles to warm much more than the tropics. This reduces the potential difference in energy between the poles and the tropics, which reduces the amount of heat flow which can occur in the atmosphere. If the poles and equator were at the same temperature, there would be no storms – the Earth’s heat engine would shut down.

Actual scientists understand this, which is why climate scientists don’t – and make idiotic claims like big typhoons being caused by global warming.

And we're not living on Venus are we? Venus has a atmospheric temperature estimated to be over 800 degrees F, and it's atmosphere is 100 times as dense as ours. Climate modellers 20 years ago made 2 general predictions about how heating up the planet would affect weather:
1. More weather extremes - floods in wet regions, droughts in the areas that already tend to be dry.
2. Fewer, BUT MORE SEVERE, hurricanes, typhoons and tornadoes....and I'd say the evidence of recent years is right on track. Worth noting that Typhoon Haiyan is turning into a record breaking storm (most meteorologists discount measurements taken of storms decades ago before there was accurate satellite measuring) during a relatively calm season on the Pacific....everything's happening as expected, including the deniers who close their eyes, plug their ears and hum really loud so they can't learn anything that will disrupt their comfortable plans!

 

[Earthling]

Scientists: Climate Change May Offer Hurricane Help
Many scientists have blamed global warming for more intense recent hurricane seasons and for the more destructive storms that are predicted in years to come, but a new study says climate change could eventually help safeguard the U.S. Atlantic Coast from hurricanes.

Scientists: Climate Change May Offer Hurricane Help

 

[KLATTU]

Can you prove more heat in the oceans will lead to stronger Hurricanes? Of course.

You know why? Because it's simple,basic science, dude.

Except it hasn't happened. Explanation?

UN IPCC: 'There is low confidence in any observed long-term (40 years or more) increases in tropical cyclone activity (ie intensity, frequency, duration).' Its authoritative Fifth Assessment Report added in September 2013 there have been 'no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century'.

 

[Earthling]

Global Warming and Hurricanes
An Overview of Current Research Results
1. Has Global Warming Affected Atlantic Hurricane Activity?

Thomas R. Knutson
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA
Sept. 3, 2008; Last Revised January 30, 2013
A. Summary Statement

Two frequently asked questions on global warming and hurricanes are the following:

Have humans already caused a detectable increase in Atlantic hurricane activity?
What changes in hurricane activity are expected for the late 21st century, given the pronounced global warming scenarios from current IPCC models?

In this review, I address these questions in the context of published research findings. I will first present the main conclusions and then follow with some background discussion of the research that leads to these conclusions. The main conclusions are:

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - Global Warming and Hurricanes

 

[KLATTU]

Global Warming and Hurricanes
An Overview of Current Research Results
1. Has Global Warming Affected Atlantic Hurricane Activity?

Thomas R. Knutson
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA
Sept. 3, 2008; Last Revised January 30, 2013
A. Summary Statement

Two frequently asked questions on global warming and hurricanes are the following:

Have humans already caused a detectable increase in Atlantic hurricane activity?
What changes in hurricane activity are expected for the late 21st century, given the pronounced global warming scenarios from current IPCC models?

In this review, I address these questions in the context of published research findings. I will first present the main conclusions and then follow with some background discussion of the research that leads to these conclusions. The main conclusions are:

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - Global Warming and Hurricanes

Summary- It hasn't happened, but trust us, It will. And you can trust us because we've accurately predicted everything els. Oh..wait.....

 

[Earthling]

Global Warming Increases Wind Shear, Reduces Hurricanes, Climate Model Shows

Apr. 18, 2007 — Climate model simulations for the 21st century indicate a robust increase in wind shear in the tropical Atlantic due to global warming, which may inhibit hurricane development and intensification. Historically, increased wind shear has been associated with reduced hurricane activity and intensity.

Global Warming Increases Wind Shear, Reduces Hurricanes, Climate Model Shows

 

[Threegoofs]

Except it hasn't happened. Explanation?

UN IPCC: 'There is low confidence in any observed long-term (40 years or more) increases in tropical cyclone activity (ie intensity, frequency, duration).' Its authoritative Fifth Assessment Report added in September 2013 there have been 'no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century'.

Yet it has.

The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones : Abstract : Nature

The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones

James B. Elsner1, James P. Kossin2 & Thomas H. Jagger1

Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 32306, USA
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA

Correspondence to: James B. Elsner1 Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to J.B.E. (Email: jelsner@fsu.edu).

Top of page

Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average, with a 30-year trend that has been related to an increase in ocean temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean and elsewhere1, 2, 3, 4. Over the rest of the tropics, however, possible trends in tropical cyclone intensity are less obvious, owing to the unreliability and incompleteness of the observational record and to a restricted focus, in previous trend analyses, on changes in average intensity. Here we overcome these two limitations by examining trends in the upper quantiles of per-cyclone maximum wind speeds (that is, the maximum intensities that cyclones achieve during their lifetimes), estimated from homogeneous data derived from an archive of satellite records. We find significant upward trends for wind speed quantiles above the 70th percentile, with trends as high as 0.3 plusminus 0.09 m s-1 yr-1 (s.e.) for the strongest cyclones. We note separate upward trends in the estimated lifetime-maximum wind speeds of the very strongest tropical cyclones (99th percentile) over each ocean basin, with the largest increase at this quantile occurring over the North Atlantic, although not all basins show statistically significant increases. Our results are qualitatively consistent with the hypothesis that as the seas warm, the ocean has more energy to convert to tropical cyclone wind.

 

[Commie]

No silly prove that those specific storms you posted and tried to claim were caused by AGW.. THOSE STORMS... Get it yet? You made the claim they were caused by AGW, now prove it or admit you can't and stop the dancing.

Prove that Arnold Schwarzegger won his Mr. Universe contest many years ago by using anabolic steroids! Get the point yet?

 

[Hamster Buddha]

Ah Global Warming, I thought we were over this when Al Gore came out with that movie about rising seas... then bought a beach house.

 

[gslack]

Prove that Arnold Schwarzegger won his Mr. Universe contest many years ago by using anabolic steroids! Get the point yet?

Prove that he only won it because of steroids,, Get the point yet?

 

[Commie]

Prove that he only won it because of steroids,, Get the point yet?

Yeah, I got it. You believe that everyone including Mother Earth should be taken steroids, and you're happy to keep the supply coming!

 

[KLATTU]

Yet it has.

The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones : Abstract : Nature

Sorry- I'll take the IPCC over some rogue outlier.

heh heh heh

 

[Threegoofs]

Sorry- I'll take the IPCC over some rogue outlier.

heh heh heh

Oh. OK. Well the IPCC is more than convinced.

IPCC releases climate change report; says storm intensity will increase | SmartBrief

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter02.pdf

 

[gslack]

Yeah, I got it. You believe that everyone including Mother Earth should be taken steroids, and you're happy to keep the supply coming!

LOL,what on earth are you talking about?

 

[gslack]

Yet it has.

The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones : Abstract : Nature

It's a paper expressing a scientific opinion and not a statement of fact...

Also...

Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average, with a 30-year trend that has been related to an increase in ocean temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean and elsewhere1, 2, 3, 4. Over the rest of the tropics, however, possible trends in tropical cyclone intensity are less obvious, owing to the unreliability and incompleteness of the observational record and to a restricted focus, in previous trend analyses, on changes in average intensity.

Relate to... Correlation is not causation...If the rest of the tropics don't show equal or increase (less obvious) those findings, and as we all know the tropics are already warmer and should show warming first because they are closer to the sun and receive more direct energy, then why the discrepancy? We don't know and neither do they, what they are doing is speculating... It's proposal not a statement of fact..

 

[gslack]

Oh. OK. Well the IPCC is more than convinced.

IPCC releases climate change report; says storm intensity will increase | SmartBrief

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter02.pdf

From your link...""Climate change will probably increase storm intensity and size simultaneously, resulting in a significant intensification of storm surges,"" Probably... Not will, not has, but probably will.. In other words they don't know for sure but they think it will...

 

[Threegoofs]

It's a paper expressing a scientific opinion and not a statement of fact...

Its a study. With data.

I'm beginning to see why all this science stuff is confusing you.

Thus their ability to state in the conclusion of the abstract:

Our results are qualitatively consistent with the hypothesis that as the seas warm, the ocean has more energy to convert to tropical cyclone wind.

 

[gslack]

Its a study. With data.

I'm beginning to see why all this science stuff is confusing you.

Thus their ability to state in the conclusion of the abstract:

And that data they interpret and the paper shows their interpretations.. We can play this game all day but it doesn't change a thing. It's not a statement of assured fact..

""Climate change will probably increase storm intensity and size simultaneously, resulting in a significant intensification of storm surges,""

Yes. They are consistent with the "hypothesis"...

HYPOTHESIS

hy·poth·e·sis noun \hī-ˈpä-thə-səs\
: an idea or theory that is not proven but that leads to further study or discussion
plural hy·poth·e·ses

Full Definition of HYPOTHESIS

1
a : an assumption or concession made for the sake of argument
b : an interpretation of a practical situation or condition taken as the ground for action
2
: a tentative assumption made in order to draw out and test its logical or empirical consequences
3
: the antecedent clause of a conditional statement

again not a fact..

 

[Threegoofs]

And that data they interpret and the paper shows their interpretations.. We can play this game all day but it doesn't change a thing. It's not a statement of assured fact..

Yes, They also state that the ocean contains water. I suppose that is also an interpretation and not a statement of assured fact. LOL.