There is another way for bullied Ireland

[Infinite Chaos]

The EU authorities and IMF are telling the Irish 'there's no alternative' to their brutal bailout conditions. That's so wrong

There is another way for bullied Ireland

The EU authorities and IMF are telling the Irish 'there's no alternative' to their brutal bailout conditions. That's so wrong
Brian Cowen Brian Cowen, the beleaguered Irish prime minister, who is coming under severe political pressure to conclude a deal with the European Commission and IMF. Photograph: Georges Gobet/AFP/Getty Images

As another one of the so-called "PIIGS" countries is being led to the slaughterhouse, it is worth asking whether all the carnage advocated by the European authorities is really necessary. Ireland is in its third year of recession, and income per person has already declined by more than 20% since 2007. Unemployment has more than tripled from 4.3% at the end of 2006 to 13.9% today.

The baseline projection from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is that debt stabilises at close to 100% of GDP by 2014, but even that depends on the volatile and sometimes contradictory sentiments of the "bond vigilantes" – who don't always seem to know what they want. One day, the bond markets are happy because the government is cutting the budget and laying off workers; the next day, they relearn their national income accounting and realise that this will shrink the economy, and make the deficit and debt burden bigger relative to GDP.

Unfortunately, the European authorities do know what they want: they want to squeeze Ireland, they want more fiscal tightening and they want to shrink the size of the government. And they want it now, even if it means that Ireland will sink further into recession.
There is another way for bullied Ireland | Mark Weisbrot | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

Apparently the Euro climbed today as confidence in the currency rose. Some sceptics are seeing an Irish sacrificial lamb that would boost the rest of the Eurozone countries and the Euro. The question becomes who the proposed rescue package would benefit more.

Thankfully, all talk of the UK foolishly joining the Euro seem to be on the permanent backburner.

 

[PeteEU]

Apparently the Euro climbed today as confidence in the currency rose. Some sceptics are seeing an Irish sacrificial lamb that would boost the rest of the Eurozone countries and the Euro. The question becomes who the proposed rescue package would benefit more.

Of course some sceptics are seeing Ireland as a sacrificial lamb... they are after all sceptics and anti-Europeans.. so it is only natural for them to be against anything the Eurozone, EU and anyone on the continent does. Plus many of the I would wager have long term financial bets on the Euros demise and short term bets on certain countries. They are vultures frankly.. some of them.

Fact is that the Irish government made a bad call when the crisis started, by guaranteeing all banks debt. This was a very foolish move, since they should have known the size of the Irish banking industry and how it had gotten that big. This has now come home too roost and as long as the speculators are running the markets as they are, any "weak lamb" will be put to slaughter sooner than later because it would mean a profit.

While the money is being forced on them in a way, the cotangent effect an Irish economy in trouble is significant and not only with in the Eurozone. If you have not noticed, since this whole issue became popular to talk about, the UK's rates have raised considerably, along with many other European countries. Spain, Portugal, Italy, and even France have seen rates go up due to supposed Irish cotangent... (in other words speculators playing games again).. because supposedly these countries are next in line to go belly up, despite the facts saying the opposite (maybe not for Portugal). But because speculators see a quick buck in the making, then rates are pressed up and panic is setting in yet again.

Now the UK's rates have also gone up because like it or not, Ireland is one of the UK's biggest trading partners and UK banks at last count had several hundred of billions of pounds in debt from Ireland.

If anything, I would claim that the threat of Irish default is a far far greater threat to the UK than the Eurozone.

Thankfully, all talk of the UK foolishly joining the Euro seem to be on the permanent backburner.

We shall see. You might not have a choice. Of the big economies in Europe, the UK was the last one to go to the IMF for help.... just saying..

 

[Manc Skipper]

Steve Bell can be a tad harsh, but he has the relationship between British and Irish finance right. Our bailed out banks are billions deep in Irish loans.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

Of course some sceptics are seeing Ireland as a sacrificial lamb... they are after all sceptics and anti-Europeans.. so it is only natural for them to be against anything the Eurozone, EU and anyone on the continent does. Plus many of the I would wager have long term financial bets on the Euros demise and short term bets on certain countries. They are vultures frankly.. some of them.

But it's not external speculators forcing a loan on Ireland - it's the IMF and the Eurozone areas by the sound of the article.

We shall see. You might not have a choice. Of the big economies in Europe, the UK was the last one to go to the IMF for help.... just saying..

We're not the "sick man of Europe" we once were, supporting the Irish debt will cost us plenty but that won't force us into the Euro.

 

[PeteEU]

But it's not external speculators forcing a loan on Ireland - it's the IMF and the Eurozone areas by the sound of the article.

Did not say it was... at least not directly. External speculators are driving up yields on Eurobonds and forcing the IMF and Eurozone's hand.

We're not the "sick man of Europe" we once were, supporting the Irish debt will cost us plenty but that won't force us into the Euro.

Nope you are not and did not mean it like that. My point is that no one knows what is going to happen 1+ year down the road. 4 years ago, a bail-out of Ireland would be laughed off... As for supporting Irish debt.. you have no choice since 200+ billion of it is in your banks.

 

[Manc Skipper]

We will support Ireland because they will drag us down with them should they go, but while they can look to support from Europe, we are on our own.

 

[German guy]

Wait a moment ... Ireland is "bullied", just because the other EU states which are bailing Ireland out ask for some conditions before they pump their precious money into the Irish economy, after Ireland has run itself into the ground?

If you think that's "bullying", I have another proposition: Leave the eurozone and deal with your debts alone, without German, French and Dutch money to bail you out. Then you won't have reason to whine about alleged "bullying", just because the Germans, French and Dutch are not willing to hand out money to Ireland without conditions at all, after Ireland has proven it cannot really use money with responsibility, but will just flush it down the toilet.

Seriously. Ireland should be grateful that other EU members even consider wasting their precious money on it. Without the EU and the Euro, Ireland would not be entirely broken and could deal with these problems alone. But allegedly, freeriding on other people's hard earned money is "being bullied" now. Weird days we live in.

 

[paris]

We will support Ireland because they will drag us down with them should they go, but while they can look to support from Europe, we are on our own.

We'll make a mental note of that next time you guys have a major mad-cow outbreak..

 

[Infinite Chaos]

We'll make a mental note of that next time you guys have a major mad-cow outbreak..

Mon ami, France and Europe banned British beef in 1996 - France kept her ban (illegally) for another 3 years after the threat had gone and cost us millions and tarnished our reputation internationally.

We have a couple of mad bovine extremists roaming around this forum at the moment, can we ship them off to la France for starters? Time for some Creutzfeld Jakobs payback. :mrgreen:

 

[Grant]

Apparently the Euro climbed today as confidence in the currency rose. Some sceptics are seeing an Irish sacrificial lamb that would boost the rest of the Eurozone countries and the Euro. The question becomes who the proposed rescue package would benefit more.

Thankfully, all talk of the UK foolishly joining the Euro seem to be on the permanent backburner.

So, summing up,the PIIGS will not be cowed by the bullies, nor be made their sacrificial lambs.

What about the frogs? Will they pony up?

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

So, summing up,the PIIGS will not be cowed by the bullies, nor be made their sacrificial lambs.

What about the frogs? Will they pony up?

Given that the Piigs have little leverage if they want the Frogs money, the piigs will have to squeal a little before the frogs give up any money

 

[paris]

Mon ami, France and Europe banned British beef in 1996 - France kept her ban (illegally) for another 3 years after the threat had gone and cost us millions and tarnished our reputation internationally.

My friend, I'm afraid you tarnished your reputation by yourselves by lowering temperature sterilization in order to keep meat prices competitive.. and Europe agreed to pay you compensations for destroying British cattle:

"Britain agreed early today to destroy millions of head of older cattle during the next five years in return for partial European Union compensation for farmers whose cattle will be incinerated in an effort to eliminate human exposure to the fatal ailment."

Europe Agrees to Help Pay For Destroying British Cattle - New York Times

We have a couple of mad bovine extremists roaming around this forum at the moment, can we ship them off to la France for starters? Time for some Creutzfeld Jakobs payback. :mrgreen:

Please keep your mad bulls but remember before you feed them with your scrapie-infected sheep to cook the latter at very high temperatures.. more regulations in your financial sectors would also be appreciated.

 

[Djoop]

Only a 100 billion? What's that per capita, 50K? The problem of this idea of saving banks is that we're supposed to save banks. We're not, we're supposed to guarantee the savings of accountholders. Banks can loan up to 30 times their amount of savings, it's ridiculous to try and 'save' them.

As for the example of Greece. We (the dutch euros) borrowed borrowed money to Greece, which we borrowed for 2% and are borrowing to Greece for 5+%. If Ireland (or anyone else) wants such a deal they can of course.