The US has reached the precipice and robustly jumped off of it

[Tim the plumber]

There isn't a single person in this country that can say they haven't been warned that this was coming, well, it's here. Do people really understand what this all means? This pandemic is completely out of control, it's over the edge. States like Iowa and S. Dakota are poised to 'ration care', so what does that actually mean? It means nothing other than medical staff are going to make choices as to who lives and who dies. There's just not enough medical staff to deal with this and it's something I've been trying to warn the most steadfast deniers of this pandemic about.

Here's where we are today as far as infection rates in many states. Before you read the stats, bear in mind that New York, even at the apex of the worst days they had in March and April, never reached an infection rate above 22.7%. They got it down to under 1% by August and it began going up again in Sept. and is currently at 2.4%

The CDC recommends keeping the infection rate under 5 - 8%

Indiana 42%
Montana 25%
South Dakota 57%
Iowa 52%
Missouri 23%
Alabama 24%
Pennsylvania 23%

Record hospitalizations four days in a row; Alaska, Oregon, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia, Maine

If there was an organized army whose only task was to infect and possibly kill thousands of Americans, that army would be the super spreader events of all the Trump rallies in these particular states. It would be a motorcycle rally in Sturgis, S. Dakota where 500,000 mask-less bikers spent 10 days spreading their virus cells.

The refusal of Trump's administration is shaping Biden's efficacy at controlling this virus. Getting a vaccine out to the entire country is going to be an even greater challenge to Biden. Distribution of a vaccine is an operational process. If there is no smooth transition then efforts will not be optimized, and they need to be. We're in a crisis and making the best or most effective use of this transition is just absolutely vital to prevent more deaths.

Coronavirus daily deaths vs all causes United States 2022| Statista

As of January 6, 2022, an average of 1,192 people per day have died from COVID-19 in the U.S.

www.statista.com

Normally there are 8,000 deaths per day in the USA.

Now there are about the same.

Find another thing to panic about.

 

[snakestretcher]

Yes, I'm sure Trump personally descended from on-high, and sucked the life from each and every last one of them.

Trump sucks? You got that right at least

 

[snakestretcher]

Yeah, and Thanksgiving and Christmas are gone, but you can praise the GLORIOUS PEOPLES PARTY!

Oh, did you have a small business? Well, the rulers have put an end to that.

Better practice snapping our heels and shouting SEIG HEIL if Xi's man pulls off the steal.

Funny how the Wuhan virus turns America into North Korea over night - everything the democrats have wanted for decades.

But don't resist, our rulers know best.

Missing Christmas and Thanksgiving parties for one year? What's the big deal? Have your parties next Spring or whenever. Oh, and you would do well to quit the infantile comments for your dumb mates; this is a forum for adults and not the Fisher-Price forum.

 

[Ethel2]

No, 250,000 Americans have not died from coronavirus. CDC analysis has shown at less than 6% of the reported fatalities actually died from coronavirus. They are listing everyone who test positive for coronavirus as a fatality, in actuality most of these are people who are already on the way out anyway

I don’t debate facts

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I think that our health care system approaching a total collapse, is very much akin to falling off a cliff for millions of people.

And I think that you are being overly pessimistic.

The American healthcare SYSTEM does have the capacity to deal with COVID-19. What is required is leadership and consistency of direction.

The American healthcare SYSTEM isn't going to suffer a TOTAL collapse as long as there aren't armed mobs outside threatening to kill the healthcare workers unless those healthcare workers IMMEDIATELY take care of patients that there is no capacity to care for.

Could that happen? Your guess is as good as mine.

Right now, I don't see a sufficient level of desperation amongst the American people to make that happen.

However, when Inauguration Day 2021 passes, and the "(American) Conservatives" have the chance to chant "Blame Biden" rather than "Trust Trump", it could happen.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Hmm, who should I listen to; medics with decades of experience in dealing with viral pandemics, or a clearly uninformed and anonymous internet nobody who convinces himself that he is right? Tough choice...

Actually, the person you should be listening to is that famed international infecting dizeaze expert Donald J. Trump, BA, MA, MBA (Circumductio), PhD (Stultior Opulentos), MD (Gastroenterology).

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Says the guy calling appeals to the Constitution "whining," when their justification for discarding it is a virus with a less than 1% average death rate.

Ya-huh. Buh-bye now.

The current US mortality rate is 3.44%.

​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

This is what I am talking about:

We do not know the numerator because we do not have an accurate case count. Only confirmed cases are known because there are a lot of people running around out there with no symptoms (and therefore do not get tested).
We do not know the denominator because the real death count is not known because those who die at home are not counted and sometimes the deaths are not listed as due to Covid but rather "heart attack" or "pneumonia".

These are facts. Both the numerator and denominator are likely grossly underestimated, but no one knows by how much. Your guess is almost as good as mine when it comes to true mortality rate.

Although the ACTUAL numbers are not known, the PATTERN is quite clear.

(More charts and graphs at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19)​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

That comes from the US CDC, sparky.

I get it, you need panic porn so that people will give up civil rights under a dictatorship.

But the numbers are what they are.

If you get Wuhan and are under 75, you'll live.

If you have massive comorbidity and are elderly Wuhan is really dangerous, if not - it really isn't. But democrats still demand you surrender all freedom and civil liberty.

The CDC reports what the Chinese government releases.

There hasn't been a single reported death from COVID-19 coming out of China for well over one month. If you believe that, then you believe that the results of the 2020 election were

​

 

[Ethel2]

Although the ACTUAL numbers are not known, the PATTERN is quite clear.

View attachment 67305685
View attachment 67305686
View attachment 67305687

(More charts and graphs at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19)​

You seem to be a numbers guy. What do you think the actual mortality rate is in this country?
My guess is about 1.5-2% overall.

 

[bomberfox]

There isn't a single person in this country that can say they haven't been warned that this was coming, well, it's here. Do people really understand what this all means? This pandemic is completely out of control, it's over the edge. States like Iowa and S. Dakota are poised to 'ration care', so what does that actually mean? It means nothing other than medical staff are going to make choices as to who lives and who dies. There's just not enough medical staff to deal with this and it's something I've been trying to warn the most steadfast deniers of this pandemic about.

Here's where we are today as far as infection rates in many states. Before you read the stats, bear in mind that New York, even at the apex of the worst days they had in March and April, never reached an infection rate above 22.7%. They got it down to under 1% by August and it began going up again in Sept. and is currently at 2.4%

The CDC recommends keeping the infection rate under 5 - 8%

Indiana 42%
Montana 25%
South Dakota 57%
Iowa 52%
Missouri 23%
Alabama 24%
Pennsylvania 23%

Record hospitalizations four days in a row; Alaska, Oregon, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia, Maine

If there was an organized army whose only task was to infect and possibly kill thousands of Americans, that army would be the super spreader events of all the Trump rallies in these particular states. It would be a motorcycle rally in Sturgis, S. Dakota where 500,000 mask-less bikers spent 10 days spreading their virus cells.

The refusal of Trump's administration is shaping Biden's efficacy at controlling this virus. Getting a vaccine out to the entire country is going to be an even greater challenge to Biden. Distribution of a vaccine is an operational process. If there is no smooth transition then efforts will not be optimized, and they need to be. We're in a crisis and making the best or most effective use of this transition is just absolutely vital to prevent more deaths.

Alabama is surprising considering it was a do nothing state.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

False, CDC has shown that number is off by orders of magnitude. They found less then 6 percent of deaths were actually from coronavirus.

Actually that isn't what they found at all, but I do realize that a belief in fantasy is necessary for some people.

How many people died of flu during Obama’s 8 years? Is he responsible for not containing that?

The CDC estimate is 242,000 for six years (2010 to 2016 "Flu seasons). That's a monthly average of around 3,360.

So far, the CDC figure for COVID-19 is 260,394 (so far this year). That's a monthly average of around 28,930.

Since 3 is 150% of 2, it is patently obvious (to any graduate of the BS (Statistics) program at The University of Numerology [such as Dr. Mashmont]) that Mr. Trump's handling of COVID-19 was MUCH superior to Mr. Obama's handling of "The Flu" - right?

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Can you imagine our parents and grandparents whining about a mask?

Can you imagine them stomping their feet and proclaiming they don't need a ration book. They can buy what they want and how much they want during WW2?.

Actually I can.

Not only that, but I can IMAGINE what the reactions of their friends and neighbours would have been (and it wouldn't have been all that "happy making").

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

You seem to be a numbers guy. What do you think the actual mortality rate is in this country?
My guess is about 1.5-2% overall.

That actually depends on what you define "mortality rate" as.

Some people define it as

​

Number of Deaths divided by Total Population (which is a standard that ABSOLUTELY NO reputable group uses. Using that definition, the "mortality rate" is 0.0785%​

​

​

(More charts and graphs at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19)​

​

Others (and this is the general one) define it as "Total Deaths divided by Total Cases". (The problem with that definition is that it assumes that 100% of the currently infected will NOT die.) Using that definition, the "mortality rate" is 2.12% (Column 9).​

​

However I prefer to define it as "Total Deaths divided by (Total Deaths + Total Recovered)". (That avoids the question of how many of the currently infected will die.) Using that definition, the "mortality rate" is 3.44% (Column 10).​

​

(More charts and graphs at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19)​

Another way of looking at the numbers is to answer the question "What is my chance of dying from COVID-19?" and to answer that question you have to answer two other questions "What is my chance of catching COVID-19?" and "If I do catch COVID-19, what are my chances of dying from it?". To see how the US stacks up against other countries on that question, take a look at Column 11 above.​

 

[Ethel2]

That actually depends on what you define "mortality rate" as.

Some people define it as

​

Number of Deaths divided by Total Population (which is a standard that ABSOLUTELY NO reputable group uses. Using that definition, the "mortality rate" is 0.0785%​

​

​

View attachment 67305692
(More charts and graphs at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19)​

​

Others (and this is the general one) define it as "Total Deaths divided by Total Cases". (The problem with that definition is that it assumes that 100% of the currently infected will NOT die.) Using that definition, the "mortality rate" is 2.12% (Column 9).​

​

However I prefer to define it as "Total Deaths divided by (Total Deaths + Total Recovered)". (That avoids the question of how many of the currently infected will die.) Using that definition, the "mortality rate" is 3.44% (Column 10).​

​

View attachment 67305693
(More charts and graphs at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19)​

Another way of looking at the numbers is to answer the question "What is my chance of dying from COVID-19?" and to answer that question you have to answer two other questions "What is my chance of catching COVID-19?" and "If I do catch COVID-19, what are my chances of dying from it?". To see how the US stacks up against other countries on that question, take a look at Column 11 above.​

I guess what I was asking is, what is your guess about the following: what is the actual total number of cases since the onset of the disease and what is the actual total number of deaths directly attributable to Covid. If, for example, you say that there are have been a total of 100 cases of Covid since the onset and that 5 people have died then the mortality rate is 5%.
I am assuming that some of the people with Covid WILL die; what is that percentage? If you are saying that its about 2.12% we are pretty close in our estimates. I used the Korean stats (they are very good at knowing accurate numbers for cases and deaths) and there its roughly 1.7%, so my guess is about 1.5-2%. There is no reason to assume that their mortality rates differ significantly than ours. We both have very good medical care systems and neither country has had its hospitals become overrun yet.
I realize we do not have accurate numbers for either the numerator or the denominator....so it would be just a guess.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Alabama is surprising considering it was a do nothing state.

Alabama ranks 36th out of 51 as ar as "Cases per Million" is concerned

​

Alabama ranks 29th (out of 51) as far as "Deaths per Million" is concerned.

​

Alabama ranks 31st (out of 51) as far as "Mortality Rate" is concerned.

​

If you consider an average ranking of 32nd out of 51 is "doing pretty good" you have a great future as an "Educational Theorist" because that would translate out to a GPA of 1.49 (which, rumour has it, is sufficient to graduate from High School in Alabama [but not necessarily "With Honors"]).

 

[bomberfox]

Alabama ranks 36th out of 51 as ar as "Cases per Million" is concerned

View attachment 67305695

​

Alabama ranks 29th (out of 51) as far as "Deaths per Million" is concerned.

View attachment 67305696​

Alabama ranks 31st (out of 51) as far as "Mortality Rate" is concerned.

View attachment 67305697​

If you consider an average ranking of 32nd out of 51 is "doing pretty good" you have a great future as an "Educational Theorist" because that would translate out to a GPA of 1.49 (which, rumour has it, is sufficient to graduate from High School in Alabama [but not necessarily "With Honors"]).

You really misred my post. I didnt say alabama was doing pretty good, i was just surprised it wasnt the worst but yeah i graduated HS in alabama thanks

 

[year2late]

Yes...leftists are very tolerant of their leaders and mouthpieces and their 'social bubbles'.

View attachment 67305476

If that is Newsom - it was a dick move. And we let him know it was a dick move. We are not throwing him under the bus for this, but we let him know he was hypocritical. He acknowledged it clearly was wrong .

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I guess what I was asking is, what is your guess about the following: what is the actual total number of cases since the onset of the disease and what is the actual total number of deaths directly attributable to Covid.

Unfortunately my consultant on matters like that

​

isn't available today.

What I DO strongly suspect is that the PATTERN closely follows the best available data we have.

If, for example, you say that there are have been a total of 100 cases of Covid since the onset and that 5 people have died then the mortality rate is 5%.

Yes. And?

I am assuming that some of the people with Covid WILL die; what is that percentage? If you are saying that its about 2.12% we are pretty close in our estimates. I used the Korean stats (they are very good at knowing accurate numbers for cases and deaths) and there its roughly 1.7%, so my guess is about 1.5-2%. There is no reason to assume that their mortality rates differ significantly than ours. We both have very good medical care systems and neither country has had its hospitals become overrun yet.
I realize we do not have accurate numbers for either the numerator or the denominator....so it would be just a guess.

I'm content to go with "Mortality Rate (Closed)".

 

[NWRatCon]

I guess what I was asking is, what is your guess about the following: what is the actual total number of cases since the onset of the disease and what is the actual total number of deaths directly attributable to Covid. If, for example, you say that there are have been a total of 100 cases of Covid since the onset and that 5 people have died then the mortality rate is 5%.
I am assuming that some of the people with Covid WILL die; what is that percentage? If you are saying that its about 2.12% we are pretty close in our estimates. I used the Korean stats (they are very good at knowing accurate numbers for cases and deaths) and there its roughly 1.7%, so my guess is about 1.5-2%. There is no reason to assume that their mortality rates differ significantly than ours. We both have very good medical care systems and neither country has had its hospitals become overrun yet.
I realize we do not have accurate numbers for either the numerator or the denominator....so it would be just a guess.

As friend Curmudgeon pointed out, it is difficult at this juncture to give an accurate assessment for a few of reasons - first, our epidemic is out of control; second, we are haphazard in our testing protocols; third, mortality rates are generally tied to hospitalizations, missing (it is estimated) about 28% of the actual COVID mortality (those who died at home without having been tested or reporting symptoms).

I would say your estimates are generally reasonable. The hospital-mortality experience to date has improved (depending on region), but there are currently 80,000+ active hospitalizations and 4.75 million identified active cases. Assuming a conservative 1.5% mortality rate yields a probable 71,660 more fatalities among the currently infected (although we know that infections are increasing at over 170,000/day). The lag between infection and mortality is very elastic from 10 to 21 days, but averages around 15 days. The majority of those deaths will occur within 30 days. IHME estimates about 321,000 deaths by Christmas. That tallies with my estimates.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

As friend Curmudgeon pointed out, it is difficult at this juncture to give an accurate assessment for a few of reasons - first, our epidemic is out of control; second, we are haphazard in our testing protocols; third, mortality rates are generally tied to hospitalizations, missing (it is estimated) about 28% of the actual COVID mortality (those who died at home without having been tested or reporting symptoms).

I would say your estimates are generally reasonable. The hospital-mortality experience to date has improved (depending on region), but there are currently 80,000+ active hospitalizations and 4.75 million identified active cases. Assuming a conservative 1.5% mortality rate yields a probable 71,660 more fatalities among the currently infected (although we know that infections are increasing at over 170,000/day). The lag between infection and mortality is very elastic from 10 to 21 days, but averages around 15 days. The majority of those deaths will occur within 30 days. IHME estimates about 321,000 deaths by Christmas. That tallies with my estimates.

Yesterday's rolling "7 Day Average of New Cases" was 154,371 per day. That number has been increasing by approximately 5,000 per day for the past week.

As far as estimated death tolls by Christmas is concerned, the current data gives between 300,000 and 325,000 (but, at the rate that that number has been changing lately, I'd tend to lean towards the high end of that range.

(More charts and graphs at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19)​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

UPDATE​

While the "target date" for 300,000 hasn't changed, there has been a "slight" change to the rolling "7 Day Average Deaths".

​

 

[HumblePi]

And I think that you are being overly pessimistic.

The American healthcare SYSTEM does have the capacity to deal with COVID-19. What is required is leadership and consistency of direction.

The American healthcare SYSTEM isn't going to suffer a TOTAL collapse as long as there aren't armed mobs outside threatening to kill the healthcare workers unless those healthcare workers IMMEDIATELY take care of patients that there is no capacity to care for.

Could that happen? Your guess is as good as mine.

Right now, I don't see a sufficient level of desperation amongst the American people to make that happen.

However, when Inauguration Day 2021 passes, and the "(American) Conservatives" have the chance to chant "Blame Biden" rather than "Trust Trump", it could happen.

I really don't think people understand that there's only a certain number of medical professionals to work in these hospitals and they're dying too. I used to own a nursing agency, I had over 200 nurses that worked part time with my agency picking up a shift here and there. Our clients were nursing homes and hospitals. I know that all these types of temp nursing agencies are straining to get nurses today. Even during the NY pandemic, nurses were waived the obligation to have a nursing license in the state of NY in order to come from all over the country to help out the staffing during the worst of the epidemic in NY. But now, those nurses are back home and they're running into critical shortages where nurses are working 12 hour shifts five days a week and they're falling sick, suffering from mental fatigue and PSTD.

Last April, there were already more than 150 health care professionals that died of Covid-19. As of October, according to the CDC, more than 170,000 US healthcare workers have contracted the virus and 1,200 have died. This is what I've been warning about for months, that there is a limited amount of these trained professionals and now hospitals are putting nursing students to work on the front lines, that's how desperate some hospitals are already. Looking ahead, I can see where we may possibly reach a crisis point. Sure, there will be beds even if they have to be set up in auditoriums or civic centers, but who's going to be there to do the real hands-on work required? Will there be enough? That's my biggest fear. There simply is not an unlimited amount of healthcare workers.

 

[HumblePi]

Coronavirus daily deaths vs all causes United States 2022| Statista

As of January 6, 2022, an average of 1,192 people per day have died from COVID-19 in the U.S.

www.statista.com

Normally there are 8,000 deaths per day in the USA.

Now there are about the same.

Find another thing to panic about.

I don't know where you get your statistics but they're wrong. 8,000 people do not die every day from Covid-19, that's completely inaccurate. According the the CDC, 82,000 people are currently hospitalized, not dead. The daily death toll on Friday alone was 1,800 people. Even at the height of the pandemic in the Northeast, it never got that high. There is 1,440 minutes in 24 hours, so that means that on Friday, someone died nearly every minute of the day. And you think I'm being pessimistic?

 

[HumblePi]

If you are wrong we live a disordered life where children are not seeing human face, forsaking family, people are kept from religious services, people are more atomized which leads to all kinds of social disorder.

Don't you understand that these are things that won't kill anyone?