The Trump Effect Q1 (1 Viewer)

[skews13.]

As expected, U.S. economic growth stalled in the first quarter of 2025, almost entirely due to uncertainty about Trump’s economic policies and the impact of tariffs. Real GDP growth was -0,3% in the quarter. Consumer Prices increased by 3.6% in the first quarter, up from 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Right wing and mainstream news may try to spin this as bad weather or something. But it’s not. It’s the Trump Effect, in plain sight.

Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.

www.bea.gov

 

[Hari Seldon]

View attachment 67567613

As expected, U.S. economic growth stalled in the first quarter of 2025, almost entirely due to uncertainty about Trump’s economic policies and the impact of tariffs. Real GDP growth was -0,3% in the quarter. Consumer Prices increased by 3.6% in the first quarter, up from 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Right wing and mainstream news may try to spin this as bad weather or something. But it’s not. It’s the Trump Effect, in plain sight.

Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.

www.bea.gov

Markets down. It's called WINNING BY THE MAGIDIOTS.

 

[iliveonramen]

I was reading an article about Trump's Mich rally and they talked to a 67 year old retiree who was talking about "well, we may have to feel some pain". Yeah, you're not feeling pain. Let's cut Social Security and Medicare during market downturns and watch you sing a different tune. How about the government lets that pension go belly up.

Boomers have wrecked this country for decades and this is their last hurrah. Their "if I'm going to go, everyone is going with me".

 

[Mycroft]

View attachment 67567613

As expected, U.S. economic growth stalled in the first quarter of 2025, almost entirely due to uncertainty about Trump’s economic policies and the impact of tariffs. Real GDP growth was -0,3% in the quarter. Consumer Prices increased by 3.6% in the first quarter, up from 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Right wing and mainstream news may try to spin this as bad weather or something. But it’s not. It’s the Trump Effect, in plain sight.

Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.

www.bea.gov

You characterize this as "almost entirely due to uncertainty about Trump’s economic policies and the impact of tariffs". But you ignore other parts of the GDP equation: Investment and exports.

The article talked about it, too.

Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending that were partly offset by upturns in investment and exports.​

There was a massive surge in import goods purchases of 50.9% versus the prior period [Table 1, line 20]. That’s the largest periodic increase in import purchases I have ever seen. Simultaneously, fixed asset investment in equipment for domestic production surged 22.5% [Table 1, line 11].

Put both of these metrics together and what you see are U.S. companies building consumer inventory from overseas (imports) while simultaneously preparing themselves to shift production into the USA. The massive import purchases are a bridge to cover the time needed to shift the manufacturing from overseas to the USA.

Investment in the USA is high. MAGA working.

Imports are temporarily high, as companies prepare to purchase less from overseas. MAGA working.

Following the increase in U.S. investment and following the increase in equipment purchasing; we will see an increase in jobs as a result of hiring Americans to use the equipment and create the products. If the workforce tightens up (illegal alien deportation continues) and unemployment lessens, then pressure is created on wage rates as companies compete for workers. Main Street starts winning again.

Attach welfare support to employment efforts and the dependency model shrinks.

This is very good news all around.

Awesome News - GDP Growth at -0.3% in First Quarter, Despite Massive Import Purchase Increase of 41.3% to Avoid Tariffs - The Last Refuge

The absolute key to the first quarter GDP result is to remember that ‘imports‘ are a deduction in the economic equation of Gross Domestic Product. The GDP is the valuation of all goods and services produced in the USA *minus* the value of imports. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases...

theconservativetreehouse.com

Yes. This IS very good news...but the media doesn't dare tell you the truth.

 

[JohnfrmClevelan]

You characterize this as "almost entirely due to uncertainty about Trump’s economic policies and the impact of tariffs". But you ignore other parts of the GDP equation: Investment and exports.

The article talked about it, too.

Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending that were partly offset by upturns in investment and exports.​

​

There was a massive surge in import goods purchases of 50.9% versus the prior period [Table 1, line 20]. That’s the largest periodic increase in import purchases I have ever seen. Simultaneously, fixed asset investment in equipment for domestic production surged 22.5% [Table 1, line 11].​

​

Put both of these metrics together and what you see are U.S. companies building consumer inventory from overseas (imports) while simultaneously preparing themselves to shift production into the USA. The massive import purchases are a bridge to cover the time needed to shift the manufacturing from overseas to the USA.​

​

Investment in the USA is high. MAGA working.​

​

Imports are temporarily high, as companies prepare to purchase less from overseas. MAGA working.​

​

Following the increase in U.S. investment and following the increase in equipment purchasing; we will see an increase in jobs as a result of hiring Americans to use the equipment and create the products. If the workforce tightens up (illegal alien deportation continues) and unemployment lessens, then pressure is created on wage rates as companies compete for workers. Main Street starts winning again.​

​

Attach welfare support to employment efforts and the dependency model shrinks.​

​

This is very good news all around.​

​

Awesome News - GDP Growth at -0.3% in First Quarter, Despite Massive Import Purchase Increase of 41.3% to Avoid Tariffs - The Last Refuge

The absolute key to the first quarter GDP result is to remember that ‘imports‘ are a deduction in the economic equation of Gross Domestic Product. The GDP is the valuation of all goods and services produced in the USA *minus* the value of imports. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases...

theconservativetreehouse.com

Yes. This IS very good news...but the media doesn't dare tell you the truth.

And you don't see this as companies importing more before the tariffs take effect? Buying inventory counts as investment, you know.

When you see actual capital investment in US facilities, then you can get excited. But there has been none of that yet.

 

[Mycroft]

And you don't see this as companies importing more before the tariffs take effect?

I do.

And I presented the reason for that happening.

Buying inventory counts as investment, you know.

You should look at the chart again.



Buying inventory isn't part of this investment.

When you see actual capital investment in US facilities, then you can get excited. But there has been none of that yet.

Again...look at the chart. The "investment" part IS capital investment.

 

[stealthycat]

why don't you show the last 20 years to give us a good idea the waves/highs/lows/trends etc that GDP has went through with GW, Obama, Trump, Biden .....

 

[JohnfrmClevelan]

I do.

And I presented the reason for that happening.


You should look at the chart again.

View attachment 67567678

Buying inventory isn't part of this investment.


Again...look at the chart. The "investment" part IS capital investment.

So businesses are also importing tons of Chinese "equipment" before the tariffs hit. Same reasoning applies.

You are seeing what you want to see, that trump's tariffs have instantly caused US businesses to invest heavily into onshoring production. If you opened your eyes, you would understand that businesses aren't counting on these tariffs staying in place, or even trump staying in place, and aren't about to invest much of anything in the face of an expected recession. Businesses are doing what consumers are doing - buying more in advance of the tariffs, and hoping they don't last too long.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

why don't you show the last 20 years to give us a good idea the waves/highs/lows/trends etc that GDP has went through with GW, Obama, Trump, Biden .....

maybe for the same reason you don't show us that either

 

[Mycroft]

So businesses are also importing tons of Chinese "equipment" before the tariffs hit. Same reasoning applies.

What makes you think they are importing tons of Chinese equipment? That's not what the chart is saying.

You are seeing what you want to see, that trump's tariffs have instantly caused US businesses to invest heavily into onshoring production.

Wrong.

They are investing heavily in domestic production.

If you opened your eyes, you would understand that businesses aren't counting on these tariffs staying in place, or even trump staying in place, and aren't about to invest much of anything in the face of an expected recession. Businesses are doing what consumers are doing - buying more in advance of the tariffs, and hoping they don't last too long.

If that were the case, they wouldn't be making capital investments.

 

[JohnfrmClevelan]

What makes you think they are importing tons of Chinese equipment? That's not what the chart is saying.

There are large outlier numbers in equipment and imported goods. Consumers aren't increasing consumption that much, if at all.

There is investment, but nothing in structures. That leaves equipment.

Wrong.

They are investing heavily in domestic production.


If that were the case, they wouldn't be making capital investments.

They aren't investing in structures. Where are the factories?

This is merely businesses buying up stuff while it's relatively cheap. That includes equipment, whatever that encompasses.

 

[HangLow]

why don't you show the last 20 years to give us a good idea the waves/highs/lows/trends etc that GDP has went through with GW, Obama, Trump, Biden .....

Why don't YOU???
-Peace

 

[stealthycat]

maybe for the same reason you don't show us that either

 

[Ethel2]

You characterize this as "almost entirely due to uncertainty about Trump’s economic policies and the impact of tariffs". But you ignore other parts of the GDP equation: Investment and exports.

The article talked about it, too.

Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending that were partly offset by upturns in investment and exports.​

​

There was a massive surge in import goods purchases of 50.9% versus the prior period [Table 1, line 20]. That’s the largest periodic increase in import purchases I have ever seen. Simultaneously, fixed asset investment in equipment for domestic production surged 22.5% [Table 1, line 11].​

​

Put both of these metrics together and what you see are U.S. companies building consumer inventory from overseas (imports) while simultaneously preparing themselves to shift production into the USA. The massive import purchases are a bridge to cover the time needed to shift the manufacturing from overseas to the USA.​

​

Investment in the USA is high. MAGA working.​

​

Imports are temporarily high, as companies prepare to purchase less from overseas. MAGA working.​

​

Following the increase in U.S. investment and following the increase in equipment purchasing; we will see an increase in jobs as a result of hiring Americans to use the equipment and create the products. If the workforce tightens up (illegal alien deportation continues) and unemployment lessens, then pressure is created on wage rates as companies compete for workers. Main Street starts winning again.​

​

Attach welfare support to employment efforts and the dependency model shrinks.​

​

This is very good news all around.​

​

Awesome News - GDP Growth at -0.3% in First Quarter, Despite Massive Import Purchase Increase of 41.3% to Avoid Tariffs - The Last Refuge

The absolute key to the first quarter GDP result is to remember that ‘imports‘ are a deduction in the economic equation of Gross Domestic Product. The GDP is the valuation of all goods and services produced in the USA *minus* the value of imports. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases...

theconservativetreehouse.com

Yes. This IS very good news...but the media doesn't dare tell you the truth.

That’s because calling it “good news” is unadulterated bullshit.

 

[Ethel2]

So businesses are also importing tons of Chinese "equipment" before the tariffs hit. Same reasoning applies.

You are seeing what you want to see, that trump's tariffs have instantly caused US businesses to invest heavily into onshoring production. If you opened your eyes, you would understand that businesses aren't counting on these tariffs staying in place, or even trump staying in place, and aren't about to invest much of anything in the face of an expected recession. Businesses are doing what consumers are doing - buying more in advance of the tariffs, and hoping they don't last too long.

What’s so hard to understand about that? No businessman is going to build a factory or start a new business without a reasonable expectation of what the ground rules are. It’s just common sense.
Of course MAGATS have no common sense. Neither does the head MAGAT.

 

[JohnfrmClevelan]

What’s so hard to understand about that? No businessman is going to build a factory or start a new business without a reasonable expectation of what the ground rules are. It’s just common sense.
Of course MAGATS have no common sense. Neither does the head MAGAT.

I don't think it's hard to understand. I just think that trumpies are far too invested in him to bail out now. They are looking at a lifetime of "I told you so"s no matter when they figure it out. There was plenty of evidence of his incompetence after his first term, but now it's going to hit people in their pocketbooks, and there's no more pointing the finger at Biden. How much does your 401(k) have to lose before you conclude that this guy is an idiot? That's going to be a painful admission for a lot of people.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

why don't you show the last 20 years to give us a good idea the waves/highs/lows/trends etc that GDP has went through with GW, Obama, Trump, Biden .....

View attachment 67567691

There are zero "waves" displayed

Maybe you need a chart with greater resolution, maybe by the quarter or something.


Where can we get a good idea the waves/highs/lows/trends etc.?

Where can we get a good idea the waves/highs/lows/trends etc that GDP has went through with Trump?

Where can we get a good idea the waves/highs/lows/trends etc that GDP has went through with Biden?


I wouldn't expect @stealthycat would find this chart to be very satisfactory since the chart is missing the elements @stealthycat specifically asked for

 

[stealthycat]

There are zero "waves" displayed

Maybe you need a chart with greater resolution, maybe by the quarter or something.


Where can we get a good idea the waves/highs/lows/trends etc.?

Where can we get a good idea the waves/highs/lows/trends etc that GDP has went through with Trump?

Where can we get a good idea the waves/highs/lows/trends etc that GDP has went through with Biden?


I wouldn't expect @stealthycat would find this chart to be very satisfactory since the chart is missing the elements @stealthycat specifically asked for

is it easy for you to font change, bold, etc on posts like this ? It looks so .... odd


an even longer out charts

U.S. GDP Growth Rate 1961-2025 | MacroTrends

Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2010 U.S. dollars. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the...

www.macrotrends.net

liberals want to hate Trump on 100 days in office - ignoring everything else. that's really all this is

 

[rahl]

You characterize this as "almost entirely due to uncertainty about Trump’s economic policies and the impact of tariffs". But you ignore other parts of the GDP equation: Investment and exports.

The article talked about it, too.

Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending that were partly offset by upturns in investment and exports.​

​

There was a massive surge in import goods purchases of 50.9% versus the prior period [Table 1, line 20]. That’s the largest periodic increase in import purchases I have ever seen. Simultaneously, fixed asset investment in equipment for domestic production surged 22.5% [Table 1, line 11].​

​

Put both of these metrics together and what you see are U.S. companies building consumer inventory from overseas (imports) while simultaneously preparing themselves to shift production into the USA. The massive import purchases are a bridge to cover the time needed to shift the manufacturing from overseas to the USA.​

​

Investment in the USA is high. MAGA working.​

​

Imports are temporarily high, as companies prepare to purchase less from overseas. MAGA working.​

​

Following the increase in U.S. investment and following the increase in equipment purchasing; we will see an increase in jobs as a result of hiring Americans to use the equipment and create the products. If the workforce tightens up (illegal alien deportation continues) and unemployment lessens, then pressure is created on wage rates as companies compete for workers. Main Street starts winning again.​

​

Attach welfare support to employment efforts and the dependency model shrinks.​

​

This is very good news all around.​

​

Awesome News - GDP Growth at -0.3% in First Quarter, Despite Massive Import Purchase Increase of 41.3% to Avoid Tariffs - The Last Refuge

The absolute key to the first quarter GDP result is to remember that ‘imports‘ are a deduction in the economic equation of Gross Domestic Product. The GDP is the valuation of all goods and services produced in the USA *minus* the value of imports. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases...

theconservativetreehouse.com

Yes. This IS very good news...but the media doesn't dare tell you the truth.

Conservative tree house

 

[SavannahMann]

You characterize this as "almost entirely due to uncertainty about Trump’s economic policies and the impact of tariffs". But you ignore other parts of the GDP equation: Investment and exports.

The article talked about it, too.

Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending that were partly offset by upturns in investment and exports.​

​

There was a massive surge in import goods purchases of 50.9% versus the prior period [Table 1, line 20]. That’s the largest periodic increase in import purchases I have ever seen. Simultaneously, fixed asset investment in equipment for domestic production surged 22.5% [Table 1, line 11].​

​

Put both of these metrics together and what you see are U.S. companies building consumer inventory from overseas (imports) while simultaneously preparing themselves to shift production into the USA. The massive import purchases are a bridge to cover the time needed to shift the manufacturing from overseas to the USA.​

​

Investment in the USA is high. MAGA working.​

​

Imports are temporarily high, as companies prepare to purchase less from overseas. MAGA working.​

​

Following the increase in U.S. investment and following the increase in equipment purchasing; we will see an increase in jobs as a result of hiring Americans to use the equipment and create the products. If the workforce tightens up (illegal alien deportation continues) and unemployment lessens, then pressure is created on wage rates as companies compete for workers. Main Street starts winning again.​

​

Attach welfare support to employment efforts and the dependency model shrinks.​

​

This is very good news all around.​

​

Awesome News - GDP Growth at -0.3% in First Quarter, Despite Massive Import Purchase Increase of 41.3% to Avoid Tariffs - The Last Refuge

The absolute key to the first quarter GDP result is to remember that ‘imports‘ are a deduction in the economic equation of Gross Domestic Product. The GDP is the valuation of all goods and services produced in the USA *minus* the value of imports. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases...

theconservativetreehouse.com

Yes. This IS very good news...but the media doesn't dare tell you the truth.

Sales are down. And have been dropping month by month.

Retail sales came in weaker than expected, another bad sign for the US economy | CNN Business

Spending at US retailers last month was much weaker than expected, in a troubling sign that the American shopper could be starting to tap out.

amp.cnn.com

Ports are reporting the slowing of cargo.

China exports to U.S. plunge as tariffs hit, leading some experts to warn of product shortages

The drop-off in shipments could lead to empty store shelves this summer as retailers deem China-made goods too expensive to import.

www.cbsnews.com

Those aren’t manufacturing jobs so I guess those jobs don’t count as American Jobs. Right?

From there the ripple really gets going. Fewer trucks will be needed so owner operators will have trouble finding freight to move. I’m sure they are willing to lose their trucks and homes so we can endure a little pain. Right?

 

[AncientGeek]

View attachment 67567691

You're missing a few years there.

 

[AncientGeek]

You characterize this as "almost entirely due to uncertainty about Trump’s economic policies and the impact of tariffs". But you ignore other parts of the GDP equation: Investment and exports.

The article talked about it, too.

Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending that were partly offset by upturns in investment and exports.​

​

There was a massive surge in import goods purchases of 50.9% versus the prior period [Table 1, line 20]. That’s the largest periodic increase in import purchases I have ever seen. Simultaneously, fixed asset investment in equipment for domestic production surged 22.5% [Table 1, line 11].​

​

Put both of these metrics together and what you see are U.S. companies building consumer inventory from overseas (imports) while simultaneously preparing themselves to shift production into the USA. The massive import purchases are a bridge to cover the time needed to shift the manufacturing from overseas to the USA.​

​

Investment in the USA is high. MAGA working.​

​

Imports are temporarily high, as companies prepare to purchase less from overseas. MAGA working.​

​

Following the increase in U.S. investment and following the increase in equipment purchasing; we will see an increase in jobs as a result of hiring Americans to use the equipment and create the products. If the workforce tightens up (illegal alien deportation continues) and unemployment lessens, then pressure is created on wage rates as companies compete for workers. Main Street starts winning again.​

​

Attach welfare support to employment efforts and the dependency model shrinks.​

​

This is very good news all around.​

​

Awesome News - GDP Growth at -0.3% in First Quarter, Despite Massive Import Purchase Increase of 41.3% to Avoid Tariffs - The Last Refuge

The absolute key to the first quarter GDP result is to remember that ‘imports‘ are a deduction in the economic equation of Gross Domestic Product. The GDP is the valuation of all goods and services produced in the USA *minus* the value of imports. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases...

theconservativetreehouse.com

Yes. This IS very good news...but the media doesn't dare tell you the truth.

I don't see any of all those factories going up. Ask yourself, who would want to buy things produced at U.S. wages? Who would build a factory in an uncertain economy?

What I do see is companies all over the country freezing hiring:
U.S. employers posted 7.2 million vacancies in March, down from 7.5 million in February and 8.1 million in March 2024

US job openings fall to 7.2 million in March, the lowest level since September

Job openings in the United States fell in March as President Donald Trump’s trade wars clouded the economic outlook.

apnews.com

By the way, our major export, that the administration conveniently leaves out of its trade balance calculations is services not manufactured items.