The top 10 weather and climate events of a record-setting year

[Bergslagstroll]

The devastating effects of climate change are already being felt all across the world.

The top 10 weather and climate events of a record-setting year » Yale Climate Connections

In an all-around bizarre and largely unpleasant calendar year, extreme weather and climate-related changes contributed to the woes of 2020.

yaleclimateconnections.org

 

[MamboDervish]

The devastating effects of climate change are already being felt all across the world.

The top 10 weather and climate events of a record-setting year » Yale Climate Connections

In an all-around bizarre and largely unpleasant calendar year, extreme weather and climate-related changes contributed to the woes of 2020.

yaleclimateconnections.org

The article points out the issue of naming major storms, and the fact that as we retire Greek letter storms we might very soon run out.
As a solution, I'd like to propose that once we exhaust English alphabet names in any given year, we start naming subsequent storms after politicians who are AGW deniers, as in those who are notorious for opposing or reversing common sense environmental policies that might mitigate the warming.
It should be an easy list to compile.

 

[Jack Hays]

The article points out the issue of naming major storms, and the fact that as we retire Greek letter storms we might very soon run out.
As a solution, I'd like to propose that once we exhaust English alphabet names in any given year, we start naming subsequent storms after politicians who are AGW deniers, as in those who are notorious for opposing or reversing common sense environmental policies that might mitigate the warming.
It should be an easy list to compile.

We name more storms now because we have more comprehensive data and we have loosened standards for naming.

 

[Jack Hays]

Official US Climate Data Reveals No Cause For Alarm

• Date: 18/09/20
• 
  
• Press Release, Global Warming Policy Foundation

A new paper published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation shows that U.S. climate has been changing very gradually, and mostly in a benign way. The paper, by British climate writer Paul Homewood, examines official US weather sources and finds almost nothing to justify alarm. “The temperature has risen a little”, says Homewood, “but temperature extremes […]

 

[Antiwar]

Official US Climate Data Reveals No Cause For Alarm

• Date: 18/09/20
• 
  
• Press Release, Global Warming Policy Foundation

A new paper published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation shows that U.S. climate has been changing very gradually, and mostly in a benign way. The paper, by British climate writer Paul Homewood, examines official US weather sources and finds almost nothing to justify alarm. “The temperature has risen a little”, says Homewood, “but temperature extremes […]

>>>

Climate change deniers trying to fool the public again about extreme weather - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment

Climate change deniers in Britain are continuing to mislead the public and policy-makers by wrongly claiming that there has been...

www.lse.ac.uk

 

[Jack Hays]

>>>

Climate change deniers trying to fool the public again about extreme weather - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment

Climate change deniers in Britain are continuing to mislead the public and policy-makers by wrongly claiming that there has been...

www.lse.ac.uk

Lots of suppositions and assumptions, but the data just won't cooperate. For instance:

Figure: Global Hurricane Frequency (all & major) -- 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL. Global Tropical Cyclone Activity | Ryan Maue​

 

[Antiwar]

...

I know you have tons of links on climate change denial.

In the US, for example, not to blame the US:

How much gasoline does the United States consume? In 2019, about 142.71 billion gallons (or about 3.40 billion barrels1) of finished motor gasoline were consumed in the United States, an average of about 390.98 million gallons (or about 9.31 million barrels) per day. Sep 4, 2020

Question: Do you think having a 391-million-gallon fire burning every day, releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, has any effect, or is that 100% benign?

 

[Jack Hays]

I know you have tons of links on climate change denial.

In the US, for example, not to blame the US:

Question: Do you think having a 391-million-gallon fire burning every day, releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, has any effect or is that 100% benign?

I'm sure it has an effect, but not anything dangerous or alarming.

 

[Antiwar]

I'm sure it has an effect, but not anything dangerous or alarming.

Ok, it has an effect.

That's just gasoline. The daily US diesel fuel fire is a little smaller. Those two fires, just of those two liquid fuels, burn every day. A year has 365 days. That's a monumental fire burning the entire year.

How many carbon dioxide molecules are produced from combustion of (1) gasoline and (2) diesel fuel with air?

 

[code1211]

The devastating effects of climate change are already being felt all across the world.

The top 10 weather and climate events of a record-setting year » Yale Climate Connections

In an all-around bizarre and largely unpleasant calendar year, extreme weather and climate-related changes contributed to the woes of 2020.

yaleclimateconnections.org

Your link may not be utterly biased and filled with lies, but it certainly seems to be.

I find it very interesting now, as I did in about May or June, that even though Anthropogenic Emissions fell to about nothing for three months that the Global CO2 concentration continued to rise at about the same pace as previous years.

The rest of 2020, the Anthropogenic emissions were vastly reduced.

Buying into the AGW Alarmist CRAP gets more and more difficult with more and more data to look at.

More interesting than any other bit of data here is that the CO2 level in 2020 is about 10 points higher than 2016, but the temperature is predicted to be the same.

Does this show causality or correlation or neither?

Trends in CO2 - NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory

GML conducts research on greenhouse gas and carbon cycle feedbacks, changes in aerosols, and surface radiation, and recovery of stratospheric ozone.

www.esrl.noaa.gov

<snip>

Monthly Average Mauna Loa CO2

November 2020:	412.89 ppm
November 2019:	410.25 ppm

Last updated: December 8, 2020

PNG Version PDF Version

PNG Version PDF Version
The graphs show monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. The carbon dioxide data on Mauna Loa constitute the longest record of direct measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere. They were started by C. David Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in March of 1958 at a facility of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [Keeling, 1976]. NOAA started its own CO2 measurements in May of 1974, and they have run in parallel with those made by Scripps since then [Thoning, 1989].
<snip>

 

[Bergslagstroll]

>>>

Climate change deniers trying to fool the public again about extreme weather - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment

Climate change deniers in Britain are continuing to mislead the public and policy-makers by wrongly claiming that there has been...

www.lse.ac.uk

There even federal agencies under the control and scrutiny of Trump administration and Republican climate deniers in Congress have to acknowledge the devastating effects of climate change.

"Below are some of the impacts that are currently visible throughout the U.S. and will continue to affect these regions, according to the Third3 and Fourth4 National Climate Assessment Reports, released by the U.S. Global Change Research Program:

Northeast. Heat waves, heavy downpours and sea level rise pose growing challenges to many aspects of life in the Northeast. Infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries and ecosystems will be increasingly compromised. Many states and cities are beginning to incorporate climate change into their planning.

Northwest. Changes in the timing of streamflow reduce water supplies for competing demands. Sea level rise, erosion, inundation, risks to infrastructure and increasing ocean acidity pose major threats. Increasing wildfire, insect outbreaks and tree diseases are causing widespread tree die-off.

Southeast. Sea level rise poses widespread and continuing threats to the region’s economy and environment. Extreme heat will affect health, energy, agriculture and more. Decreased water availability will have economic and environmental impacts.

Midwest. Extreme heat, heavy downpours and flooding will affect infrastructure, health, agriculture, forestry, transportation, air and water quality, and more. Climate change will also exacerbate a range of risks to the Great Lakes.

Southwest. Increased heat, drought and insect outbreaks, all linked to climate change, have increased wildfires. Declining water supplies, reduced agricultural yields, health impacts in cities due to heat, and flooding and erosion in coastal areas are additional concerns."

Effects - NASA Science

Global climate change is not a future problem. Changes to Earth’s climate driven by increased human emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are already

climate.nasa.gov

 

[Jack Hays]

Ok, it has an effect.

That's just gasoline. The daily US diesel fuel fire is a little smaller. Those two fires, just of those two liquid fuels, burn every day. A year has 365 days. That's a monumental fire burning the entire year.

How many carbon dioxide molecules are produced from combustion of (1) gasoline and (2) diesel fuel with air?

I'll cut to the chase. Anthropogenic causes accounted for only about half 20th century warming; the other half was solar-driven. The same ratio (or something very close) holds in the 21st century. As a result, climate sensitivity is quite low, and we'll achieve the Paris temperature target for 2100 without changing anything.

 

[Bergslagstroll]

Your link may not be utterly biased and filled with lies, but it certainly seems to be.

I find it very interesting now, as I did in about May or June, that even though Anthropogenic Emissions fell to about nothing for three months that the Global CO2 concentration continued to rise at about the same pace as previous years.

The rest of 2020, the Anthropogenic emissions were vastly reduced.

Buying into the AGW Alarmist CRAP gets more and more difficult with more and more data to look at.

More interesting than any other bit of data here is that the CO2 level in 2020 is about 10 points higher than 2016, but the temperature is predicted to be the same.

Does this show causality or correlation or neither?

Trends in CO2 - NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory

GML conducts research on greenhouse gas and carbon cycle feedbacks, changes in aerosols, and surface radiation, and recovery of stratospheric ozone.

www.esrl.noaa.gov

<snip>

Monthly Average Mauna Loa CO2

November 2020:	412.89 ppm
November 2019:	410.25 ppm

Last updated: December 8, 2020

PNG Version PDF Version

PNG Version PDF Version
The graphs show monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. The carbon dioxide data on Mauna Loa constitute the longest record of direct measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere. They were started by C. David Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in March of 1958 at a facility of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [Keeling, 1976]. NOAA started its own CO2 measurements in May of 1974, and they have run in parallel with those made by Scripps since then [Thoning, 1989].
<snip>

The last couple of years have been the warmest years on record. There 2020 is also on track of being among the three warmest year on record.

2020 on track to be one of three warmest years on record

Climate change continued its relentless march in 2020, which is on track to be one of the three warmest years on record. 2011-2020 will be the warmest decade on record, with the warmest six years all being since 2015, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

public.wmo.int

 

[Antiwar]

There even federal agencies under the control and scrutiny of Trump administration and Republican climate deniers in Congress have to acknowledge the devastating effects of climate change.
...

The giant US militarism machine, which runs on fossil fuels, and works to keep access to fossil fuels in foreign lands open to the world's fossil fuels economies, is concerned and taking action on our climate change crisis.

 

[Antiwar]

I'll cut to the chase. Anthropogenic causes accounted for only about half 20th century warming; the other half was solar-driven. The same ratio (or something very close) holds in the 21st century. As a result, climate sensitivity is quite low, and we'll achieve the Paris temperature target for 2100 without changing anything.

How will the target be achieved without changing anything?

 

[Jack Hays]

How will the target be achieved without changing anything?

Because we are on track to achieve it right now.

 

[istodolez]

I'll cut to the chase. Anthropogenic causes accounted for only about half 20th century warming; the other half was solar-driven. The same ratio (or something very close) holds in the 21st century. As a result, climate sensitivity is quite low, and we'll achieve the Paris temperature target for 2100 without changing anything.

Interesting.

More recently, it is extremely unlikely that the contribution from solar forcing to the observed global warming since 1950 was larger than that from GHGs (Section 10.3.1.1.3). It is very likely that there has been a small decrease in solar forcing of –0.04 [–0.08 to 0.00] W m–2 over a period with direct satellite measurements of solar output from 1986 to 2008 (Section 8.4.1.1). There is high confidence that changes in total solar irradiance have not contributed to global warming during that period.

Since AR4, there has been considerable new research that has connected solar forcing to climate. The effect of solar forcing on GMST trends has been found to be small, with less than 0.1°C warming attributable to combined solar and volcanic forcing over the 1951– 2010 period (Section 10.3.1), although the 11-year cycle of solar variability has been found to have some influence on GMST variability over the 20th century. GMST changes between solar maxima and minima are estimated to be of order 0.1°C from some regression studies of GMST and forcing estimates (Figure 10.6), although several studies have suggested these results may be too large owing to issues including degeneracy between forcing and with internal variability, overfitting of forcing indices and underestimated uncertainties in responses (Ingram, 2007; Benestad and Schmidt, 2009; Stott and Jones, 2009). Climate models generally show less than half this variability (Jones et al., 2012).

SOURCE: WG1AR5

 

[Jack Hays]

Interesting.


SOURCE: WG1AR5

My experience at the German Bundestag's Environment Committee in a pre-COP24 discussion

This is the contribution to the radiative forcing from different components, as summarized in the IPCC AR5. As you can see, it is claimed that the solar contribution is minute (tiny gray bar). In reality, we can use the oceans to quantify the solar forcing, and see that it was probably larger than the CO2 contribution (large light brown bar).



Any attempt to explain the 20th century warming should therefore include this large forcing. When doing so, one finds that the sun contributed more than half of the warming, and climate has to be relatively insensitive. How much? Only 1 to 1.5°C per CO2 doubling, as opposed to the IPCC range of 1.5 to 4.5. This implies that without doing anything special, future warming will be around another 1 degree over the 21st century, meeting the Copenhagen and Paris goals. . . .

Having said that, it is possible to actually model the climate system while including the heat capacity, namely diffusion of heat into and out of the oceans, and include the solar and anthropogenic forcings and find out that by introducing the the solar forcing, one can get a much better fit to the 20th century warming, in which the climate sensitivity is much smaller. (Typically 1°C per CO2 doubling compared with the IPCC's canonical range of 1.5 to 4.5°C per CO2 doubling).

You can read about it here: Ziskin, S. & Shaviv, N. J., Quantifying the role of solar radiative forcing over the 20th century, Advances in Space Research 50 (2012) 762–776 . . . .

 

[Antiwar]

...

Why should we take the risk when the consequences are so high?

 

[Jack Hays]

Why should we take the risk when the consequences are so high?

Because they're not.

 

[Antiwar]

Because they're not.

1. Climate change will cost hundreds of billions of dollars a year.
2. Hundreds of millions of people will be forced to move by 2050.
3. Dangerous infectious diseases could spread in the U.S.
4. Western wildfires could burn up to eight times as much land by 2100.
5. Water scarcity will hit hundreds of millions of additional people by 2100.
6. Hurricanes could become even scarier.
8. Millions of people and trillions in assets are at risk in coastal cities.
10. Global wheat and maize yields are already beginning to decline.
12. There could be no more reefs after 2050.
13. The marine food chain could fall apart.
15. Increasing droughts will make the driest regions even drier.
19. Many countries are losing essential water sources.
21. Equatorial regions and parts of the Antarctic will see up to a 50% decrease in their fisheries.
24. Thousands of plants and animal species will lose their native habitats.
25. 20 million more children will go hungry by 2050.

Redirect Notice

 

[Jack Hays]

1. Climate change will cost hundreds of billions of dollars a year.
2. Hundreds of millions of people will be forced to move by 2050.
3. Dangerous infectious diseases could spread in the U.S.
4. Western wildfires could burn up to eight times as much land by 2100.
5. Water scarcity will hit hundreds of millions of additional people by 2100.
6. Hurricanes could become even scarier.
8. Millions of people and trillions in assets are at risk in coastal cities.
10. Global wheat and maize yields are already beginning to decline.
12. There could be no more reefs after 2050.
13. The marine food chain could fall apart.
15. Increasing droughts will make the driest regions even drier.
19. Many countries are losing essential water sources.
21. Equatorial regions and parts of the Antarctic will see up to a 50% decrease in their fisheries.
24. Thousands of plants and animal species will lose their native habitats.
25. 20 million more children will go hungry by 2050.

Redirect Notice

Happily, none of that is true.

False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs ... - Amazon.com
www.amazon.com › False-Alarm-Climate-Change-Trilli...

"Bjorn Lomborg's new book offers a data-driven, human-centered antidote to the oft-apocalyptic discussion characterizing the effect of human activity on the global ...

 

[Bergslagstroll]

Summary of 2020 from Scientific American.

"This year began with terrifyingly massive blazes that tore across eastern Australia, and it will end with a photo-finish race to see if 2020 will beat 2016 as Earth’s hottest year on record.

Though the coronavirus pandemic has been a defining story of 2020, the year has been a notable one on the climate front as well. Developments have ranged from an agonizing array of warming-fueled disasters that impacted the lives and livelihoods of millions around the world, to signs that some countries (including China and members of the European Union) are making efforts to move forward on reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that are driving this warming."

The Top Five Climate Stories of 2020

From raging wildfires to a pending shift on U.S. climate action, the year was a notable one for climate change

www.scientificamerican.com

 

[Port & Starboard]

Summary of 2020 from Scientific American.

"This year began with terrifyingly massive blazes that tore across eastern Australia, and it will end with a photo-finish race to see if 2020 will beat 2016 as Earth’s hottest year on record.

Though the coronavirus pandemic has been a defining story of 2020, the year has been a notable one on the climate front as well. Developments have ranged from an agonizing array of warming-fueled disasters that impacted the lives and livelihoods of millions around the world, to signs that some countries (including China and members of the European Union) are making efforts to move forward on reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that are driving this warming."

The Top Five Climate Stories of 2020

From raging wildfires to a pending shift on U.S. climate action, the year was a notable one for climate change

www.scientificamerican.com

24 people were arrested during the 2020 Australian fires.

One of the assholes started 7 different fires.

 

[Fletch]

Ok, it has an effect.

That's just gasoline. The daily US diesel fuel fire is a little smaller. Those two fires, just of those two liquid fuels, burn every day. A year has 365 days. That's a monumental fire burning the entire year.

How many carbon dioxide molecules are produced from combustion of (1) gasoline and (2) diesel fuel with air?

And your solution is what? To come here and whine about it? Until there is a viable alternative to gasoline and diesel, we are going to continue to use them. Thats just a fact of life that you need to come to terms with. If the activities of 7 billion humans has an impact on the climate, then you need to come to terms with that as well.