The Stripper Index: Sex Industry Foretells Economic Recessions (1 Viewer)

[Allan]

What data was available on Feb 2nd? That would be 2023 data only.

If you are comparing 2024 forecast to 2023 then you include 2023 data. Duh.

How you doing finding links to all those economists you claim are forecasting increased inflation in 2024????

 

[justoneman]

February 2, 2024 is old?

Got anything to support your position?

They did not yet release the inflation rate for January 2024 on February 2nd. Obviously.

 

[justoneman]

If you are comparing 2024 forecast to 2023 then you include 2023 data. Duh.

How you doing finding links to all those economists you claim are forecasting increased inflation in 2024????

Economists are predicting the average 2024 inflation rate to be 3.3% that is their attempt to paint a rosey picture.

 

[Airyaman]

When investors do badly, the sex industry suffers first. Sex workers are therefore a "canary in the coalmine" to warn of impending recession.

Can Strippers Really Forecast a Financial Crisis?

“While people might want to cut corners on certain things, they're always going to spend money on their vices.”

www.glamour.com

According to some sex workers, traffic in strip clubs is low—a fact that's often been associated with a faltering economy. Whether that's an accurate indicator of a looming recession is up for debate, but the strippers who spoke to Glamour explained that tracking the economy is a useful way to help them make informed career decisions.

Article date? July 7 2022.

Seems they aren't that good of a predictor at all.

 

[diz]

It's on a good trajectory.

View attachment 67507995

I know leftists aren't good with math and stuff, but you're looking at the change in the change here not the change in the absolute. If you looked at absolute price levels you'd see them continuing to increase faster than they did in the early part of the graph.

It would be accurate to say "it's not going up as fast as it was", but not accurate to say "it's going down".

 

[Allan]

Economists are predicting the average 2024 inflation rate to be 3.3% that is their attempt to paint a rosey picture.

So that's a reduction. You claimed otherwise.

 

[Fletch]

No, the inflation rate trajectory since Biden took over has been a nosedive. Every economic indictor out there is doing great, it's not surprising that the only bitch a rightwinger can come up with is a 0.3% hiccup in a nosediving inflation rate.

Totally false. See the graph in post #24

 

[justoneman]

So that's a reduction. You claimed otherwise.

The first quarter of 2024 is increased from the fourth quarter of 2023

 

[Allan]

The first quarter of 2024 is increased from the fourth quarter of 2023

How you coming with those forecasts links?

 

[Buckeyes85]

401ks did better under Trump. Just saying. Don't vote for him because of that fact, but do know people could have been richer.

I like how you switch from "everyone's 401k under Trump" to "rich people" having done better under prior administrations. Or is everyone with a 401k rich?

And people could have been richer? I did not know that. Thank you.
Are you saying people would have been richer if Trump was reelected?

 

[justoneman]

How you coming with those forecasts links?

These are not forecasts. They are statistics. There was a .1% increase from 4th quarter 2023 to 1st quarter 2024.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

The only flaw in this Stripper Index is that investors are doing extremely well.

View attachment 67507974

Check the value of the Nasdaq Dec 2000 vs Dec 2002

 

[Allan]

Check the value of the Nasdaq Dec 2000 vs Dec 2002

Done. What am I looking at?

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

If you look at the Dow's historical fluctuations you can see its reaction to economic stress and recessions.

2008 and 2020 recessions are clearly indicated below.

View attachment 67507991

More to the point, I am traditionally pessimistic about the economy in general

Predicting the dot com bubble in 97, the housing bubble in 2005 ( check with poster SaymyName for confirmation on that, making a bet with him around that time.)

The US economy has the appearance of doing well, lots of money reasonable inflation stock market is doing well. What is not being discussed is why.

GDP growth is around 3 %, while just the federal government deficit is over 6% of GDP. That is a level typically only seen in strong recessions, not a period of time when the economy is doing well.

More basically the US government is stimulating the economy during " good " economic times, at a high level. Just imagine what will have to be done to stimulate the economy during a slow economic period ie recession.

So while the numbers headline numbers say the economy is doing well, it is built on debt, debt that is growing faster than the economy, and will hurt future growth, more than it is helping current growth

 

[Buckeyes85]

What about those who go and watch that entertainment?

Well, he may have been referring to it as entertainment for low class people?
But probably not. The strippers are low class but those who pay them are top shelf, I suppose? Nothing misogynistic about that, right?

BTW- it seems pretty idiotic that I would need to follow the blog of sex workers as an indicator of the economy premised on the idea that as investors do badly, their trade goes down. Isn't that what things like the Dow Jones Average is for? A snapshot of the market?

Also, if you were to pay for a lap dance and also get market advice, do you tip more? Asking for a friend.

 

[justoneman]

So that's a reduction. You claimed otherwise.

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/16/interest-rate-cuts-inflation-jerome-powell

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Done. What am I looking at?

That using the stock market to gage how well an economy is doing is not a great idea. Plenty of investors are idiots

 

[Loulit01]

Strip Clubs: Really loud music I don't like. Bad food. Place is full of guys. I like watching women dance, these women aren't dancing. Been to strip clubs maybe half-a-dozen times in 40 years. Never my idea to go.

 

[Allan]

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/16/interest-rate-cuts-inflation-jerome-powell

Oh dear, owned by your own link

Context: In recent months, Fed officials have said that that they wanted more confidence that inflation was truly falling back to the central bank's 2% target before considering slashing rates.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Well, he may have been referring to it as entertainment for low class people?
But probably not. The strippers are low class but those who pay them are top shelf, I suppose? Nothing misogynistic about that, right?

BTW- it seems pretty idiotic that I would need to follow the blog of sex workers as an indicator of the economy premised on the idea that as investors do badly, their trade goes down. Isn't that what things like the Dow Jones Average is for? A snapshot of the market?

Also, if you were to pay for a lap dance and also get market advice, do you tip more? Asking for a friend.

It is more an indicator of how people feel about the economy. If a person feels the future is great they will spend monet more freely on frivolous things. Also it might indicate business travel and how business travelers feel about the economy.

It is just an entertaining way of stating how the economy may be doing

 

[justoneman]

Oh dear, owned by your own link

Ah no. Bolstered by my link.

 

[Metric Mouse]

I like how you switch from "everyone's 401k under Trump" to "rich people" having done better under prior administrations. Or is everyone with a 401k rich?

And people could have been richer? I did not know that. Thank you.
Are you saying people would have been richer if Trump was reelected?

What is your point?

Stock market returns were better under Trump than they have been under Biden. By a considerable margin.

So if one were concerned about their 401(K) balance, Biden did objectively worse.

Homelessness has reached historic highs and food stamp requests have grown since Biden took office - rich people remain happy, and more and more poor people are suffering. Statistically speaking.

I don't know if "people would have been richer" under Trump, but the data shows that Biden has underperformed Trump on the metics listed.

 

[Metric Mouse]

Bull, a 401k does best when interest rates are higher. Interest rates were low under trump and 401k's did not grow anywhere near what they are growing now with higher interest rates.

Bull. Market returns under Trump were much higher. S&P 500 returns were about 50% higher from Jan 2017 to Jan 2021 than they have been under Biden.

Biden has 6 months to turn that around, for sure; it's not a perfect comparison, but the data literally says your feelings are wrong. Why do you post lies?

 

[Metric Mouse]

Mine and my husband's are blowing up all this year. Phenomenal growth.

Yep! Everyone's are.

But they blew up more over Trump's term, statistically speaking. 2022 was pretty brutal, and we are still recovering.

 

[justoneman]

Oh dear, owned by your own link

Haha. They wanted. I want a corvette. So what? They did not get lowered rates in first quarter 2024. They got increasing rates instead. You got owned by the link not me.