The plan to set US special forces on Mexican drug cartels — and why experts say it won’t work

[ModernDiogenes]

They won’t let us do it. Any politician who supports letting “Yanqui” soldiers kill Mexican in Mexico will be dead, politically or literally.

Pretty much how I see it. Third rail stuff.

 

[RIP U.S. Democracy]

Stupid post, tailored to fit a political obsession.

It's not stupid at all.

Trump will not stop these drug cartels unless he does something to stop the U.S. gun trade with Mexico. The NRA will raise hell about that.

 

[Airyaman]

Conservative brain: “You know what will stop the cartels? Killing cartel bosses.”

Reality: Cartel bosses actively try to kill each other all the time and it does nothing to stop the cartels.

If you want to stop drug cartels, you have to end the black market they are fighting over the profits of.

You know what stopped illegal booze bootleggers?

I think we all know...

 

[Airyaman]

And then what?

You send in Special Ops and kill some of the cartel leaders.

What comes next?

Cartels pop up in other places outside of Mexico.

 

[Questerr]

Cartels pop up in other places outside of Mexico.

People act like drug productions hasn’t moved around historically either. Marijuana and most straight chemical drugs like meth or MDMA can be made anywhere. Coca mostly comes from Latin America, but (even assuming you could stop Bolivia from producing coca, and you can’t to be clear) it could be grown in other places if the supply in Latin America was somehow stopped.

Most heroin today comes from opium poppies grown in Afghanistan, Myanmar, or Mexico, but it wasn’t always grown in those places. Before then it was grown in Laos and Cambodia, and before that mostly grown in Manchuria.

So long as the demand exists, the producers will produce to meet that demand. It’s not fixed to a single location. And short of creating a monstrous police state and stomping on people’s freedoms, you aren’t getting rid of the demand.

 

[ElChupacabra]

Too be fair, Mexico doesn’t really have the ability to stop the US if they wanted to do just that. Their Air Force is minuscule, the most modern fighter dates to the Vietnam era, and they have no air defense to speak of.

However, I would bet that would quickly change when Mexico reaches out to China for military assistance and protection.

That's not going to happen. China's been very mindful to not exert itself militarily outside of its own circle of interest which is close to its borders. China also depends on the US markets, so any choice of armed conflict is going to be a very tactically considered move. This would not be that, and I'd argue the only way China would do this is if many other things have gone to hell first.

 

[Questerr]

That's not going to happen. China's been very mindful to not exert itself militarily outside of its own circle of interest which is close to its borders. China also depends on the US markets, so any choice of armed conflict is going to be a very tactically considered move. This would not be that, and I'd argue the only way China would do this is if many other things have gone to hell first.

The US under Trump is going to put massive tariffs on Chinese goods already. What do they have to lose?

 

[ElChupacabra]

This is absurd on its face. Sounds exactly like what the "experts said about taking out Saddam's Army.
. In 2017, Trump cleared out the caliphate in 2 weeks.
. I'm not going to speculate how they would do it, but Trump will find the best generals (as he did in Iraq by going there an speaking to then generals on the ground, and ignoring the office generals in DC), and have them create plans of action that ensure victory.

The idea to repeat what we've done in the past with no improvement on drug trade? Yes, that is absurd. Your examples are also not helpful to your argument because Iraq is now closely aligned with Iran. Your notion that Trump alone "cleared out the caliphate" is ridiculous as well, since that had been going on well before he became president.

 

[ElChupacabra]

The US under Trump is going to put massive tariffs on Chinese goods already.

Right now it's just talk. We'd need to see what he actually does, and that may be very different.

What do they have to lose?

Since nothing has happened yet, a lot.

 

[Questerr]

Right now it's just talk. We'd need to see what he actually does, and that may be very different.


Since nothing has happened yet, a lot.

And if Trump does put a 200% tariff on Chinese goods, what reason would they have not to provide Mexico with military assistance if Mexico asked for it?

 

[ElChupacabra]

And if Trump does put a 200% tariff on Chinese goods, what reason would they have not to provide Mexico with military assistance if Mexico asked for it?

This is all way too hypothetical. There is a cost to a tariff war with China given the interdependencies between both countries, so there's no way there's going to be a 200% tariff on Chinese goods without cratering the US economy. Even in that scenario I don't imaging China being eager to send their troops abroad. There's a better bet Mexico hires the Wagner group for mercenaries than China sending troops.

 

[Questerr]

This is all way too hypothetical. There is a cost to a tariff war with China given the interdependencies between both countries, so there's no way there's going to be a 200% tariff on Chinese goods without cratering the US economy. Even in that scenario I don't imaging China being eager to send their troops abroad. There's a better bet Mexico hires the Wagner group for mercenaries than China sending troops.

Except Trump believes wholeheartedly that other countries pay for tariffs, not America. And as an egotist, he cannot be convinced he is wrong. So he will crater the economy all the same.

China is perfectly willing to sell its military hardware and send advisors and trainers to other countries. It wouldn’t take much to give Mexico sufficient ADA to prevent US special forces and drone incursions.

 

[ElChupacabra]

Except Trump believes wholeheartedly that other countries pay for tariffs, not America. And as an egotist, he cannot be convinced he is wrong. So he will crater the economy all the same.

Trump also said magnets don't work underwater, so his level of idiocy is best measured by what he actually does. I don't think he's going to place 200% tariffs on anyone because he would self sabotage himself and his brand.

China is perfectly willing to sell its military hardware and send advisors and trainers to other countries. It wouldn’t take much to give Mexico sufficient ADA to prevent US special forces and drone incursions.

Sure, selling weapons I think China definitely would do, as well as increase trade to get Mexico less reliant on US trade. That's the kind of play the Chinese are making all over the world.

 

[Port & Starboard]

Yeah, there aren’t Mexican military and police on the streets fighting the cartels every day or anything.

Cartels control 20-30% of Mexico. The government and cops aren't doing their jobs.......period!

“Reports from the United States Northern Command indicate that Mexican cartels now control 30 to 35 percent of Mexican territory,” it said. Four years earlier, the CIA reportedly concluded that 20 percent of Mexico was under cartel control.

How Much of Mexico is Governed by Cartels?

A: None 100%. But there is a duopoly of power in chunks of the country.

www.crashoutmedia.com

 

[skews13.]

What a funny thread.

Magas on day 1 - "Biden's a war monger for helping Ukraine defend itself"
Magas on day 2 - "Let's invade Mexico"

I guess consistency isn't a maga thing, and hypocrisy is seen as a maga virtue??

Brains isn't a MAGA thing either.

 

[Airyaman]

Cartels control 20-30% of Mexico. The government and cops aren't doing their jobs.......period!

“Reports from the United States Northern Command indicate that Mexican cartels now control 30 to 35 percent of Mexican territory,” it said. Four years earlier, the CIA reportedly concluded that 20 percent of Mexico was under cartel control.

How Much of Mexico is Governed by Cartels?

A: None 100%. But there is a duopoly of power in chunks of the country.

www.crashoutmedia.com

Do you advocate a US invasion?

All of these years you MAGA types have been whining about an "invasion" of people from south of the border, now you want to actually invade one of our closest trading partners.

 

[Questerr]

Cartels control 20-30% of Mexico. The government and cops aren't doing their jobs.......period!

“Reports from the United States Northern Command indicate that Mexican cartels now control 30 to 35 percent of Mexican territory,” it said. Four years earlier, the CIA reportedly concluded that 20 percent of Mexico was under cartel control.

How Much of Mexico is Governed by Cartels?

A: None 100%. But there is a duopoly of power in chunks of the country.

www.crashoutmedia.com

Or they can't "do their job" when the country north of their border is providing massive amounts of funding to these armed groups.

 

[Port & Starboard]

Or they can't "do their job" when the country north of their border is providing massive amounts of funding to these armed groups.

Dumb answer.

Mexico drug cartels preying on addicted people is more like it.

 

[skews13.]

Of course. They were CIA in the film, though. It's actually a believable film as you watch it. Trump marching into Juarez is laughable.

The cartels have eyes everywhere. On both sides of the border. They are also a multi-billion dollar international enterprise. They have much better intelligence than the CIA. Anyone that thinks the US will just sneak up on them with preemptive strike capability, is going to find out real fast this isn't a movie.

 

[Port & Starboard]

All of these years you MAGA types

Maga makes me sick, but continue trying to argue on assumptions.

No original thoughts of your own so you toss out buzz words.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

This is absurd on its face. Sounds exactly like what the "experts said about taking out Saddam's Army.
. In 2017, Trump cleared out the caliphate in 2 weeks.
. I'm not going to speculate how they would do it, but Trump will find the best generals (as he did in Iraq by going there an speaking to then generals on the ground, and ignoring the office generals in DC), and have them create plans of action that ensure victory.

Aside from the fact that the whole operation would be illegal and that the Mexican government would be completely justified in using its own military to attempt to prevent the operation from happening at all, it's probably not all that bad an idea (well, except for the fact that it wouldn't work at all).

 

[Airyaman]

Maga makes me sick, but continue trying to argue on assumptions.

No original thoughts of your own so you toss out buzz words.

If it walks and quacks like a duck...

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

IMO, whoever thinks that Special Ops can't deal with the cartels is probably working for the cartels.

Indeed, the US "Special Ops" CAN deal with the cartels. Unfortunately the casualty disparity is one which the cartels can afford while the "Special Ops" can't.

Not only that, but "the cartels" aren't exactly limited in what sort of retaliatory actions they can undertake and arranging a couple of dozen killings in the United States of America is not something that "the cartels" would find all that difficult IF they felt like arranging them.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

You think the Mexican government is going to say no? They could. What do you think would be in their best interest? Having terror organizations roaming their country (as that is what they will soon be designated as)?

Indeed, and as a means of pressuring the Mexican government severe sanctions could be placed on Mexico and all trade with Mexico forbidden, and all trade with any country that trades with Mexico could be banned as well, and all trade with any country that trades with a country that trades with Mexico could be shut down too.

 

[Questerr]

Dumb answer.

Mexico drug cartels preying on addicted people is more like it.

The cartels exist because of American demand and the American laws that create a black market, not the other way around.