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The path of Wind and Solar!

longview said:
It is a duty cycle problem! Wind and Solar without energy storage can never cover the full duty cycle.
Click to expand...

Battery storage capacity has already expanded in recent years. What makes you think it will not continue to do so? From what we’ve seen there’s every indication it will. Of course we are talking about the future here and while none of us can fully predict, it would surely take some hard evidence to suggest progress will simply...stop?
 
uptower said:
Battery storage capacity has already expanded in recent years. What makes you think it will not continue to do so? From what we’ve seen there’s every indication it will. Of course we are talking about the future here and while none of us can fully predict, it would surely take some hard evidence to suggest progress will simply...stop?
Click to expand...
Batteries are not up to the job, and short of some major technological breakthrough will not be.
Also the limits on duty cycle are already happening.
 
longview said:
Batteries are not up to the job, and short of some major technological breakthrough will not be.
Also the limits on duty cycle are already happening.
Click to expand...

Those limits are already being pushed, is another way to look at it. Since advances have already been made, what makes today the hard ceiling?
 
uptower said:
Those limits are already being pushed, is another way to look at it. Since advances have already been made, what makes today the hard ceiling?
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Are they? The limits being pushed?
Battery energy density is not expected to increase much with the existing technology.
Also for grid energy storage we need seasonal storage, not something that looses 1% per day!
 
uptower said:
Those limits are already being pushed, is another way to look at it. Since advances have already been made, what makes today the hard ceiling?
Click to expand...
I am hopeful for better technology as well, but hope does not always come true.
 
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longview said:
Are they? The limits being pushed?
Battery energy density is not expected to increase much with the existing technology.
Also for grid energy storage we need seasonal storage, not something that looses 1% per day!
Click to expand...
I think they are making progress, but battery density will not be anything like integrated circuit density.
 
longview said:
Are they? The limits being pushed?
Battery energy density is not expected to increase much with the existing technology.
Also for grid energy storage we need seasonal storage, not something that looses 1% per day!
Click to expand...

Creases to iron out. After all the improvements we've seen underway what's the hard scientific line that says progress will just *stop* this year, next year or in five years' time?
 
uptower said:
You don't have to bet a thing. Your house is already in part or even largely powered by renewables. That makes them very feasible indeed.

www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org

Wind is main source of UK electricity for first time - BBC News

Wind power overtakes gas for the first time in the UK during first three months of year.
www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org
Click to expand...


We have 11,000 massively taxpayer subsidized windmills generating at best 15 GW per day here in the UK when the wind is blowing. We require 750GW per day ..... do the math :(

The BBC is a wildly biased source BTW
 
flogger said:
We have 11,000 massively taxpayer subsidized windmills generating at best 15 GW per day here in the UK when the wind is blowing. We require 750GW per day ..... do the math :(

The BBC is a wildly biased source BTW
Click to expand...

It doesn't end today though does it. Wind and Solar continue to increase their share of the grid. That's the math. We can't just throw our hands up and say, "Welp, we're not there yet, so it'll never happen." The math doesn't support that conclusion either.
 
uptower said:
It doesn't end today though does it. Wind and Solar continue to increase their share of the grid. That's the math. We can't just throw our hands up and say, "Welp, we're not there yet, so it'll never happen." The math doesn't support that conclusion either.
Click to expand...

Well it does if you can count :unsure:

Renewables arent even remotely economically feasible in the UK nor are they necessary given we should actually be a net exporter of energy based on the centuries of fuel reserves beneath our feet

Green zealotry has taken over the body politic here and the only solution left is to emigrate frankly. Trust me you dont want to emulate the horrific WEF mandated climate lockdown future thats already happening to us :(
 
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Batteries, etc., require mining, manufacturing, and shipping. Something like 70 pct of heavy machinery in the first, up to half of manufacturing, and the bulk of shipping require fossil fuels, not to mention petrochemicals. Similar applies to mechanized agriculture plus food processing.

The fossil fuels and minerals for batteries, etc., face diminishing returns: increasing amounts of energy needed to extract decreasing amounts of material resources, and of lower quality. For example,



There is no way to reverse this because they all take place in a biosphere with physical limitations and gravity.
 
uptower said:
Creases to iron out. After all the improvements we've seen underway what's the hard scientific line that says progress will just *stop* this year, next year or in five years' time?
Click to expand...
Physics!
Battery limits
The maximum theoretical potential of advanced lithium-ion batteries that haven’t yet been demonstrated to work is still only about 6 percent of crude oil.”
 
longview said:
Physics!
Battery limits
The maximum theoretical potential of advanced lithium-ion batteries that haven’t yet been demonstrated to work is still only about 6 percent of crude oil.”
Click to expand...

Haven't "yet". Meanwhile progress continues despite the denials. That blog is 14 years old. Below is this week's news.

english.elpais.com

The nine hours in which Spain made the 100% renewable dream a reality

Electricity generation through solar, wind and water exceeded total demand in mainland Spain on Tuesday, a pattern that will be repeated more and more in the future
english.elpais.com english.elpais.com
 
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uptower said:
Haven't "yet". Meanwhile progress continues despite the denials. That blog is 14 years old. Below is this week's news.

english.elpais.com

The nine hours in which Spain made the 100% renewable dream a reality

Electricity generation through solar, wind and water exceeded total demand in mainland Spain on Tuesday, a pattern that will be repeated more and more in the future
english.elpais.com english.elpais.com
Click to expand...

Currently in the US if you were to rely on batteries as backup for when nature decides not to comply with renewable fantasies you would have a 75 second reserve. There isnt enough finite lithium deposits on Earth that could possibly fill that shortfall. Ironic really given the scare stories about fossil fuel shortfalls we have been hearing for over five decades now yet they are currently more abundant than ever :unsure:
 
flogger said:
Currently in the US if you were to rely on batteries as backup for when nature decides not to comply with renewable fantasies you would have a 75 second reserve. There isnt enough finite lithium deposits on Earth that could possibly fill that shortfall. Ironic really given the scare stories about fossil fuel shortfalls we have been hearing for over five decades now yet they are currently more abundant than ever :unsure:
Click to expand...

And still filthy. There'll of course be a hybrid grid for the foreseeable future, but as renewables increase their share, emissions will decline. Win win.
 
uptower said:
Haven't "yet". Meanwhile progress continues despite the denials. That blog is 14 years old. Below is this week's news.

english.elpais.com

The nine hours in which Spain made the 100% renewable dream a reality

Electricity generation through solar, wind and water exceeded total demand in mainland Spain on Tuesday, a pattern that will be repeated more and more in the future
english.elpais.com english.elpais.com
Click to expand...
There is no doubt that places with large solar installations, can achieve 100% coverage for a few hours during certain hours of certain days.
It has long been known that a system designed for peak daytime loads, will have surpluses during other times of the year.
Both Spring and Fall will have many such patterns, but this in no way addresses the fundamental problem of energy storage,
and batteries lack of capability.
Again short of a major technology breakthrough in battery technology, they are not up to the required task.
Yes, a battery farm can allow profiteers to rip extra money out of the electrical system, but they cannot solve the actual problem.
1684757548457.webp
 
Lord of Planar said:
I am hopeful for better technology as well, but hope does not always come true.
Click to expand...
Wind and solar are backwards, inferior tech that will turn the first world countries into third world ones.
 
flogger said:
Currently in the US if you were to rely on batteries as backup for when nature decides not to comply with renewable fantasies you would have a 75 second reserve. There isnt enough finite lithium deposits on Earth that could possibly fill that shortfall. Ironic really given the scare stories about fossil fuel shortfalls we have been hearing for over five decades now yet they are currently more abundant than ever :unsure:
Click to expand...
I think you meant to say you would need a 75 hour reserve?
But that is counting on the grid being back up in 3 days, or only 3 cloudy days in a row.
The reality is that for support of the grid, we would be some type of backup power plants.
 
PoS said:
Wind and solar are backwards, inferior tech that will turn the first world countries into third world ones.
Click to expand...
Wind and solar help liberate you from the economic death grasp of the oil cartels. Remember all those high gas prices etc. Nothing to do with the ability to supply, just economic politics being played to make others rich at our expense. The sooner we remove that strangle hold on the world economy the better. The only missing links now for wind and solar (plus other new renewable tech) are the 'efficiency' of energy production and mass energy storage. Wind and solar generation are still early in their development cycles and growing in both cost efficiency and energy efficiency very quickly now that there is a serious focus on them. Early grid scale systems are already being replaced with much more efficient ones. Grid scale storage is the last true hurdle left if we assume (correctly imo) that the development of the energy production systems will follow the rapid development path of all other comparable technologies.

So today we are at the early edge of grid scale energy storage to support wind and solar. So what is on the table so far? Everyone here seems to only talk about lithium based batteries, which are in fact the least likely long term mass storage solution. Already there are iron and aluminum based batteries being trialed that while not suitable for transport, are highly suitable for fixed installation mass storage, and use some of the earths most abundant materials. Lithium is only ever going to be a short stop gap measure for grid scale storage and will likely never be significantly deployed.

But what about other mass storage options? High efficiency Pumped Hydro is a technology that is already available for commercial deployment. The problems are finding suitable places, and the initial high investment. As a mass storage option though you can achieve huge volumes of storage at an efficient long term cost, but each project will be large and expensive up front.
How about the Finnish experiment with 'Sand Storage'? Already going into commercial trial in Finland. Excess energy is used to heat the sand in special silos where the energy is stored as heat. That heat is then used to heat homes during the cold seasons. That is an easy system in Finland due to how their infrastructure is already built, but harder in many other countries. So the next phase of development is converting that stored heat into electricity for ease of 'transport' and reuse. The development of that is also underway.
There are other mass storage systems under development as well now that the world recognizes a need, and global investors see a potentially huge market. But the puzzle doesn't stop there. There are also new renewable technologies such as tidal power and hot rock thermal that can produce completely predictable energy that can work in with solar and wind. There is also wave generation that in many places is also very predictable and a complement to wind and solar.

The clean energy future might be significantly focused on wind and solar right now, but in the longer term I expect we will receive 'clean' energy from a lot of different sources (incl nuclear). What we have to remember is that today we are comparing a ~one to two decade old wind and solar industry with a ~150 year old carbon based industry. Even 2 decades on from now we will be looking at renewable tech that will makes us wonder why we stayed with carbon based generation for so long.
 
Ishm said:
Wind and solar help liberate you from the economic death grasp of the oil cartels. Remember all those high gas prices etc. Nothing to do with the ability to supply, just economic politics being played to make others rich at our expense. The sooner we remove that strangle hold on the world economy the better. The only missing links now for wind and solar (plus other new renewable tech) are the 'efficiency' of energy production and mass energy storage. Wind and solar generation are still early in their development cycles and growing in both cost efficiency and energy efficiency very quickly now that there is a serious focus on them. Early grid scale systems are already being replaced with much more efficient ones. Grid scale storage is the last true hurdle left if we assume (correctly imo) that the development of the energy production systems will follow the rapid development path of all other comparable technologies.

So today we are at the early edge of grid scale energy storage to support wind and solar. So what is on the table so far? Everyone here seems to only talk about lithium based batteries, which are in fact the least likely long term mass storage solution. Already there are iron and aluminum based batteries being trialed that while not suitable for transport, are highly suitable for fixed installation mass storage, and use some of the earths most abundant materials. Lithium is only ever going to be a short stop gap measure for grid scale storage and will likely never be significantly deployed.

But what about other mass storage options? High efficiency Pumped Hydro is a technology that is already available for commercial deployment. The problems are finding suitable places, and the initial high investment. As a mass storage option though you can achieve huge volumes of storage at an efficient long term cost, but each project will be large and expensive up front.
How about the Finnish experiment with 'Sand Storage'? Already going into commercial trial in Finland. Excess energy is used to heat the sand in special silos where the energy is stored as heat. That heat is then used to heat homes during the cold seasons. That is an easy system in Finland due to how their infrastructure is already built, but harder in many other countries. So the next phase of development is converting that stored heat into electricity for ease of 'transport' and reuse. The development of that is also underway.
There are other mass storage systems under development as well now that the world recognizes a need, and global investors see a potentially huge market. But the puzzle doesn't stop there. There are also new renewable technologies such as tidal power and hot rock thermal that can produce completely predictable energy that can work in with solar and wind. There is also wave generation that in many places is also very predictable and a complement to wind and solar.

The clean energy future might be significantly focused on wind and solar right now, but in the longer term I expect we will receive 'clean' energy from a lot of different sources (incl nuclear). What we have to remember is that today we are comparing a ~one to two decade old wind and solar industry with a ~150 year old carbon based industry. Even 2 decades on from now we will be looking at renewable tech that will makes us wonder why we stayed with carbon based generation for so long.
Click to expand...
The real problem is that most places do not have the land AND topology AND water resources to support pumped hydro.
Some do, good for them. Thermal storage can work for localized heating, but when you try to extract electrical energy from thermal
storage Mr Carnot again raises his voice.
The only viable option currently is hydrocarbon energy storage, because it can be done in a carbon neutral way, you would think
everyone would be pushing for it, but the AGW proponents have so demonized hydrocarbon fuels, that people
cannot imagine hydrocarbon fuels that do not come from oil.
Worth mentioning, Ammonia would also work, but we do not have the demand or infrastructure to handle
such a caustic chemical.
 
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