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The Next Hundred Years
- Thread starter Ambracia
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Is there a specific forecast on which you would like readers to comment?
Unfortunately, I have not yet read Friedman's book. I did read a brief summary that had been posted earlier at Stratfor, but it's difficult to comment without reading the rationale behind his predictions. Of course, over a period of a century, a lot that seems unlikely can happen, while a lot that seems likely might not. Other events that are unforeseen and unforeseeable--the "unknown unknowns" to which Nassim Taleb refers as "Black Swans," i.e., the rise of a new great power that seemed wholly unlikely on account of a decisive technological breakthrough may occur, a war between close allies that suddenly erupts, or the emergence of a new empire, among many others.
On the macro scale, I do believe that the balance of power will remain highly relevant in what will remain a multipolar world. I also believe that the nation-state will remain the foundation on which the world is organized, as smaller entities would lack the necessary capabilities to function effectively and larger ones would be paralyzed by a divergence of interests among their components. Economically, one will continue to witness a swinging of the proverbial pendulum from a situation closer to laissez-faire market economics to a more statist approach and back and forth in response to fresh crises (fiscal, monetary, and asset bubbles) and subsequent periods of recovery and prosperity. War, particularly ethnic conflict, will not be unknown.
Human nature is what it is. Hence, the macro framework will remain pretty much as it is even as the actors may change, balance of power itself could shift, and the details of new crises might differ.
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This man said some very unexpected things, but on the surface made sense. I am not very knowledgeable about this forcasting business. I wonder what kind of models they use.