The media is perpetually surprised by robust economic indicators

[j brown's body]

“U.S. Economy Shows Surprising Vigor in First Half of 2023” a Wall Street Journal headline proclaimed this past week. On Axios, one read: “The economy’s latest upside surprise.” Yahoo Finance intoned, “Surprisingly Strong US Economic Data Keeps Recession Fears at Bay.”

You might find it remarkable that outlets touting their economic foresightedness and keen analysis could be continually surprised about the economy’s strength after 29 consecutive months of job growth, inflation steadily declining, durable goods having been up for three consecutive months, 35,000 new infrastructure projects, an extended period in which real wages exceeded inflation and outsize gains for lower wage-earners. It’s as though outlets are so invested in the narrative of failure and imminent recession that reams of positive data have had little impact on their “narrative.”


The most sanguine headline came from Fortune: “Economists scrambling to justify their recession predictions … but maybe they were just wrong.” Conversely, maybe the administration was right in its approach to building the economy “from the bottom up and the middle out” despite the histrionics from Republicans, hand-wringing from the media and negative opinion polling."

Link

To be fair, I haven't put much stock in MSM reporting of economic issues since they slept through the lead-up to the 2008 housing crisis.

Republicans are aware that the MSM is more interested in reporting what people are thinking as opposed to what is really going on, which is why they support social media running with misinformation.

 

[IQ57]

You’re looking at the wrong indicators in hopes of justifying the devastation brought on by this administration.

 

[Mr Person]

They sell a product and people seem to prefer being told that everything is shitty, soooo....

And WSJ is right lean so it has extra motive to tell its customer base that recession is imminent. That's what they want to here. They like excuses to shout "Let's Go Brandon".

You’re looking at the wrong indicators in hopes of justifying the devastation brought on by this administration.

Just how long can you have fun with this spoof of a schtick?

 

[CaughtInThe]

Just like watching the daily weather report. They have to throw in there's a chance of severe weather every day.

 

[Gatsby]

You’re looking at the wrong indicators in hopes of justifying the devastation brought on by this administration.

This would be more believable if you told us the right indicators ahead of time, and then objectively applied them all the time. Instead of retconning whichever indicator looks worse this month to justify a narrative that turned out to be incorrect.

Employment is a good indicator. Economic growth is another one. Both are doing pretty well.

 

[IQ57]

This would be more believable if you told us the right indicators ahead of time, and then objectively applied them all the time. Instead of retconning whichever indicator looks worse this month to justify a narrative that turned out to be incorrect.

Employment is a good indicator. Economic growth is another one. Both are doing pretty well.

Those are the lies the media tells you.

Reality tells a different story that has been covered extensively.

People just need to wake up from the propaganda trance to see reality for what it is.

The brainwashing is blinding people.

 

[Gatsby]

Those are the lies the media tells you.

Reality tells a different story that has been covered extensively.

People just need to wake up from the propaganda trance to see reality for what it is.

The brainwashing is blinding people.

So, not even gonna try to name these alternative metrics and why you think they are better. Just a low-effort "Wake up sheeple." Ok.

 

[multivita-man]

I must admit, I'm surprised by them myself and am wondering how so many economists who predicted anything from a mild to a major recession have been getting it so wrong for so long. And we're not talking about crackpots who report on FBN or ZeroHedge either; Larry Summers and Mohamed El Erian were, if I recall correct, suggesting we'd have a fairly substantial recession due to sticky inflation and I don't think late 23 or early 24 was on their bingo cards, though maybe I'm not recollecting them accurately.

I have two concerns.

One is that since economists' predictions about the future state of the economy increasingly seem to be about as reliable as political pollsters predictions of election outcomes - maybe less so, even. Is there something out there that they're somehow missing that they're not factoring into their projects? Something that for now is benign but that could later turn out to be a disastrous oversight or miss?

Another concern I've had for quite some time is that maybe there's a disconnect between our standard metrics and true economic health. We have had good data conventionally speaking, but economic glum persists, with consumer confidence sagging around 2008-10 levels. Nominally, the economy seems okay, but working class people are stuck with having to pay a lot more for things like rent and cars, and although the cost of energy has indeed come down, the reality of having to pay $5 per gallon of gas and more in groceries because of it are still probably seared into memory.

 

[mrjurrs]

“U.S. Economy Shows Surprising Vigor in First Half of 2023” a Wall Street Journal headline proclaimed this past week. On Axios, one read: “The economy’s latest upside surprise.” Yahoo Finance intoned, “Surprisingly Strong US Economic Data Keeps Recession Fears at Bay.”

You might find it remarkable that outlets touting their economic foresightedness and keen analysis could be continually surprised about the economy’s strength after 29 consecutive months of job growth, inflation steadily declining, durable goods having been up for three consecutive months, 35,000 new infrastructure projects, an extended period in which real wages exceeded inflation and outsize gains for lower wage-earners. It’s as though outlets are so invested in the narrative of failure and imminent recession that reams of positive data have had little impact on their “narrative.”


The most sanguine headline came from Fortune: “Economists scrambling to justify their recession predictions … but maybe they were just wrong.” Conversely, maybe the administration was right in its approach to building the economy “from the bottom up and the middle out” despite the histrionics from Republicans, hand-wringing from the media and negative opinion polling."

Link

To be fair, I haven't put much stock in MSM reporting of economic issues since they slept through the lead-up to the 2008 housing crisis.

Republicans are aware that the MSM is more interested in reporting what people are thinking as opposed to what is really going on, which is why they support social media running with misinformation.

R messaging is strong. They've convinced the public that Democrats are bad on the economy...in spite of all evidence.

For all of you that blamed President Biden for global inflation, American inflation has fallen for 11 straight months. Who gets the credit?

 

[Allan]

@j brown's body and @multivita-man it's Boomers retiring and spending their 75 trillion nest egg that is preventing a recession.

There's a $75 trillion reason the economy won't crash into a recession, top economist says: Baby boomers' pent-up net worth

“Consumers may run out of their excess pandemic savings by the end of this year, but they have lots of other sources of purchasing power,” a veteran market watcher says.

fortune.com

This will continue for years.

 

[Napoleon]

I must admit, I'm surprised by them myself and am wondering how so many economists who predicted anything from a mild to a major recession have been getting it so wrong for so long. And we're not talking about crackpots who report on FBN or ZeroHedge either; Larry Summers and Mohamed El Erian were, if I recall correct, suggesting we'd have a fairly substantial recession due to sticky inflation and I don't think late 23 or early 24 was on their bingo cards, though maybe I'm not recollecting them accurately.

I have two concerns.

One is that since economists' predictions about the future state of the economy increasingly seem to be about as reliable as political pollsters predictions of election outcomes - maybe less so, even. Is there something out there that they're somehow missing that they're not factoring into their projects? Something that for now is benign but that could later turn out to be a disastrous oversight or miss?

Another concern I've had for quite some time is that maybe there's a disconnect between our standard metrics and true economic health. We have had good data conventionally speaking, but economic glum persists, with consumer confidence sagging around 2008-10 levels. Nominally, the economy seems okay, but working class people are stuck with having to pay a lot more for things like rent and cars, and although the cost of energy has indeed come down, the reality of having to pay $5 per gallon of gas and more in groceries because of it are still probably seared into memory.

There’s something happening in the job market (at least according to the papers put out by the BLS) that economists don’t understand. The economy is not behaving in the way the books say it should be. A lot of unprecedented things have happened to the economy since the pandemic and economists are having a lot of difficulty reading the tea leaves.

 

[j brown's body]

There’s something happening in the job market (at least according to the papers put out by the BLS) that economists don’t understand. The economy is not behaving in the way the books say it should be. A lot of unprecedented things have happened to the economy since the pandemic and economists are having a lot of difficulty reading the tea leaves.

Economists are theorists, which means they don't neccesarily understand reality.

 

[Fearandloathing]

“U.S. Economy Shows Surprising Vigor in First Half of 2023” a Wall Street Journal headline proclaimed this past week. On Axios, one read: “The economy’s latest upside surprise.” Yahoo Finance intoned, “Surprisingly Strong US Economic Data Keeps Recession Fears at Bay.”

You might find it remarkable that outlets touting their economic foresightedness and keen analysis could be continually surprised about the economy’s strength after 29 consecutive months of job growth, inflation steadily declining, durable goods having been up for three consecutive months, 35,000 new infrastructure projects, an extended period in which real wages exceeded inflation and outsize gains for lower wage-earners. It’s as though outlets are so invested in the narrative of failure and imminent recession that reams of positive data have had little impact on their “narrative.”


The most sanguine headline came from Fortune: “Economists scrambling to justify their recession predictions … but maybe they were just wrong.” Conversely, maybe the administration was right in its approach to building the economy “from the bottom up and the middle out” despite the histrionics from Republicans, hand-wringing from the media and negative opinion polling."

Link

To be fair, I haven't put much stock in MSM reporting of economic issues since they slept through the lead-up to the 2008 housing crisis.

Republicans are aware that the MSM is more interested in reporting what people are thinking as opposed to what is really going on, which is why they support social media running with misinformation.

I agree.

The American media even ignored and suppressed foreign media reporting, some newspaper distributors took the Globe & Mail off the shelf!

They ignored a directive of The Bank of Canada (our Fannie whatever) warning Canadian investors of an "imminent collapse" of the US mortgage industry, eliminating cross border investments in the US investment market. First time in over 80 years or something.

Yes, your media was a complicit as the banks and I don't understand why because the 'scoop' on that story would be writing his fifth best seller by now.

 

[Fearandloathing]

They sell a product and people seem to prefer being told that everything is shitty, soooo....

And WSJ is right lean so it has extra motive to tell its customer base that recession is imminent. That's what they want to here. They like excuses to shout "Let's Go Brandon".



Just how long can you have fun with this spoof of a schtick?

That's the problem.

I know Canada is different. But if you can try to catch a clip of the CBC National News. Try not to fall asleep in the first three minutes as there may only be a dozen pop ups, script crawls and flashes each, if at all. If their producers know what those are.

It's boring. It's almost unchanged since, well, television sets weighed 800 lbs and had rabbit ears.

But it's one thing unavailable in US TV. It's to be believed. They have never misled us, when they have erred they flog themselves publicly and they will grovel when appropriate. You see they are restricted on advertising and need tax payer funding. And they are usually the first on the scene and always first in the most remote regions

They are usually either the only or the last placed station in any market, but it is where Canadians turn when anything involving Canada happens. Who do I believe on the Ukraine war? The CBC reported weeks ago the Ukraine offensive had stalled, and was a mud bound crawl for inches at a time. Something, gulp, Americans are just learning.

 

[ralfy]

90 pct of them are owned by the same rich:

These 6 Corporations Control 90% Of The Media In America

Discover how six corporations dominate 90% of the media landscape in America, shaping public perception.

www.businessinsider.com

that's been essentially creating more credit since the early 1980s to maintain increased spending:

Krugman and the Pied Pipers of Debt

Investors are celebrating an incipient “recovery,” but the interventions that were responsible for it are sowing the seeds of a more violent contraction...

seekingalpha.com

 

[Indydave]

I must admit, I'm surprised by them myself and am wondering how so many economists who predicted anything from a mild to a major recession have been getting it so wrong for so long. And we're not talking about crackpots who report on FBN or ZeroHedge either; Larry Summers and Mohamed El Erian were, if I recall correct, suggesting we'd have a fairly substantial recession due to sticky inflation and I don't think late 23 or early 24 was on their bingo cards, though maybe I'm not recollecting them accurately.

I have two concerns.

One is that since economists' predictions about the future state of the economy increasingly seem to be about as reliable as political pollsters predictions of election outcomes - maybe less so, even. Is there something out there that they're somehow missing that they're not factoring into their projects? Something that for now is benign but that could later turn out to be a disastrous oversight or miss?

Another concern I've had for quite some time is that maybe there's a disconnect between our standard metrics and true economic health. We have had good data conventionally speaking, but economic glum persists, with consumer confidence sagging around 2008-10 levels. Nominally, the economy seems okay, but working class people are stuck with having to pay a lot more for things like rent and cars, and although the cost of energy has indeed come down, the reality of having to pay $5 per gallon of gas and more in groceries because of it are still probably seared into memory.

my business is tied to Caterpillar.....historically whatever happened to Cat trickled down to the rest of the economy......we have been planning a slowdown since the first of the year......to date that has not happened......orders are still solid......when we ask Cat for forecasts the forecasts are solid.......but we are still unsure......we have had quite a few peaks over the last 30-36 months with no valleys...
but it will come.....when I speak with our suppliers they are experiencing a gradual slowdown......

the issue for most businesses and manufacturers today is labor shortage driving up the cost of labor.......demand is still strong and a lot of companies have not recovered from reducing their inventories

what we are experiencing is capitalism...the law of supply and demand.....people have money they are spending......covid threw a big curve ball to the whole show......rebounding is still ongoing......and covid may come back......what Biden has done (and Trump and Congress also) is keep the money flowing and that's what they should have done.......if we had followed typical GOP policies of not keeping the money flowing we would be in a recession.......I give Trump a star on this one