The Left’s Vaccine (Distribution) Problem

[Gaius46]

From today’s NY Times

Early in the pandemic, countries with populist, right-wing governments were suffering some of the worst outbreaks. These countries had big differences from one another — the list included Brazil, Britain, Russia and the U.S. — but their problems all stemmed partly from leaders who rejected scientific expertise.​

More progressive and technocratic countries — with both center-left and center-right leaders, like Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea — were doing a better job containing the pandemic. The pattern seemed to make sense: Politicians who believed in the ability of bureaucracies to accomplish complex jobs were succeeding at precisely that.​

But over the last few weeks, as vaccination has become a top priority, the pattern has changed. Progressive leaders in much of the world are now struggling to distribute coronavirus vaccines quickly and efficiently​

​

In essence there is a pattern of progressive leaning wrapping vaccine distribution in so much process that is meant to insure equity that vaccinations are lagging. I see it in my home state of NY where Cuomo has instituted very rigid rules of who can be vaccinated and when that has left doctors to throw away vaccine rather than vaccinate someone off schedule and risk huge fines. He has let the perfect become the enemy of the good. Vaccinating someone, even if they are in a low risk category is much preferable to vaccinating no one.

The Left’s Vaccine Problem (Published 2021)

And what else you need to know today.

www.nytimes.com

 

[bluesmoke]

With only a little over 6M having received both doses of the vaccine, what few states mentioned are hardly indicative of any red v blue comparison of any validity whatsoever.

The fact is, the problem isn’t so much “the process”, the problem is Trump didn’t order enough vaccine. There isn’t enough vaccine in stock to “process”. You can’t distribute efficiently what you don’t have. So, the US had to get back in the order line:

“In July, Pfizer offered the Trump administration the opportunity to purchase an additional 100 million to 500 million doses of its proposed vaccine. The administration turned down the offer.”

(See 2nd to last para):

Dr. Fauci Admits There’s Not Enough Vaccines to Go Around | Eat This Not That

Biden’s statement of ramping-up vaccinations to 1.3M per day isn’t near enough. That would take a year to get 80% of everyone receiving both doses. We need to get 3M per day, from today, to get everybody 2 shots by early July. Good luck by end of Sep.

Another example, of many more you'll see, of the RW trying to blame a problem on the libs that was in reality setup by Trump.

 

[Gaius46]

With only a little over 6M having received both doses of the vaccine, what few states mentioned are hardly indicative of any red v blue comparison of any validity whatsoever.

The fact is, the problem isn’t so much “the process”, the problem is Trump didn’t order enough vaccine. There isn’t enough vaccine in stock to “process”. You can’t distribute efficiently what you don’t have. So, the US had to get back in the order line:

“In July, Pfizer offered the Trump administration the opportunity to purchase an additional 100 million to 500 million doses of its proposed vaccine. The administration turned down the offer.”

(See 2nd to last para):

Dr. Fauci Admits There’s Not Enough Vaccines to Go Around | Eat This Not That

Biden’s statement of ramping-up vaccinations to 1.3M per day isn’t near enough. That would take a year to get 80% of everyone receiving both doses. We need to get 3M per day, from today, to get everybody 2 shots by early July. Good luck by end of Sep.

Another example, of many more you'll see, of the RW trying to blame a problem on the libs that was in reality setup by Trump.

First point - the source is the NY Times. The author has been employed by the Times since 1999 and has written plenty of left biased columns and articles. This is a bad piece to hold up as an example of RW bashing of the left.

Second point- supply and distribution problems are not mutually exclusive. Plenty of vaccine has sat and continues to sit unadministered because of rigid statehouse control.

 

[Noodlegawd]

With only a little over 6M having received both doses of the vaccine, what few states mentioned are hardly indicative of any red v blue comparison of any validity whatsoever.

The fact is, the problem isn’t so much “the process”, the problem is Trump didn’t order enough vaccine. There isn’t enough vaccine in stock to “process”. You can’t distribute efficiently what you don’t have. So, the US had to get back in the order line:

“In July, Pfizer offered the Trump administration the opportunity to purchase an additional 100 million to 500 million doses of its proposed vaccine. The administration turned down the offer.”

(See 2nd to last para):

Dr. Fauci Admits There’s Not Enough Vaccines to Go Around | Eat This Not That

Biden’s statement of ramping-up vaccinations to 1.3M per day isn’t near enough. That would take a year to get 80% of everyone receiving both doses. We need to get 3M per day, from today, to get everybody 2 shots by early July. Good luck by end of Sep.

Another example, of many more you'll see, of the RW trying to blame a problem on the libs that was in reality setup by Trump.

It doesn't matter how much vaccine we "order." We can't get it faster than they can make it.

As it stands, assuming the J&J vaccine gets EUA, we have already "ordered" enough vaccine to vaccinate everyone who wants it, and the suppliers have committed to delivering it by the end of June.

 

[Metric Mouse]

With only a little over 6M having received both doses of the vaccine, what few states mentioned are hardly indicative of any red v blue comparison of any validity whatsoever.

The fact is, the problem isn’t so much “the process”, the problem is Trump didn’t order enough vaccine. There isn’t enough vaccine in stock to “process”. You can’t distribute efficiently what you don’t have. So, the US had to get back in the order line:

“In July, Pfizer offered the Trump administration the opportunity to purchase an additional 100 million to 500 million doses of its proposed vaccine. The administration turned down the offer.”

(See 2nd to last para):

Dr. Fauci Admits There’s Not Enough Vaccines to Go Around | Eat This Not That

Biden’s statement of ramping-up vaccinations to 1.3M per day isn’t near enough. That would take a year to get 80% of everyone receiving both doses. We need to get 3M per day, from today, to get everybody 2 shots by early July. Good luck by end of Sep.

Another example, of many more you'll see, of the RW trying to blame a problem on the libs that was in reality setup by Trump.

But the United States has one of the best vaccination rates on the planet; who ordered enough vaccine? The UK? Russia? Doesn't that make the OPs point?

 

[GummyVitamins]

Another example, of many more you'll see, of the RW trying to blame a problem on the libs that was in reality setup by Trump.

I'm not aware of Republican governors forcing vaccine doses to be thrown away because they decided that the administration needed to be overly "woke." The problem with vaccine utilization appears to be a greater problem for liberal states which is odd since they tend to be more dense in population which should make it easier.

 

[bluesmoke]

First point - the source is the NY Times. The author has been employed by the Times since 1999 and has written plenty of left biased columns and articles. This is a bad piece to hold up as an example of RW bashing of the left.

Second point- supply and distribution problems are not mutually exclusive. Plenty of vaccine has sat and continues to sit unadministered because of rigid statehouse control.

I can't tell from your post if there is anything I said you agree or disagree with and why.

 

[bluesmoke]

It doesn't matter how much vaccine we "order." We can't get it faster than they can make it.

As it stands, assuming the J&J vaccine gets EUA, we have already "ordered" enough vaccine to vaccinate everyone who wants it, and the suppliers have committed to delivering it by the end of June.

Had we ordered more earlier, we would be receiving what is manufactured earlier instead of other countries that ordered before us. Had we a centralized, national distribution plan to begin with, what more we would have by now and sooner could be more efficiently distributed and doses administered. Regardless of commitment, a supplier can't always meet demands agreed to, such as demonstrated with Pfizer and the EU, due to unforeseen problem. In any event, it is better to have adequately planned and prepared, which we did not do and are only now doing, on the fly, w/o any help whatsoever from the previous admin. That is fact.

 

[Gaius46]

I can't tell from your post if there is anything I said you agree or disagree with and why.

I disagree with your assertion that the article is RW bashing of the left given the source.

I also disagree that it’s all Trump’s fault based on his failure to secure supplies. Local distribution has been a problem especially in states that seemingly put a premium on some notion of fairness rather than just getting as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible.

None of that excuses Trump’s criminally negligent
handling of the pandemic

 

[Noodlegawd]

Had we ordered more earlier, we would be receiving what is manufactured earlier instead of other countries that ordered before us. Had we a centralized, national distribution plan to begin with, what more we would have by now and sooner could be more efficiently distributed and doses administered. Regardless of commitment, a supplier can't always meet demands agreed to, such as demonstrated with Pfizer and the EU, due to unforeseen problem. In any event, it is better to have adequately planned and prepared, which we did not do and are only now doing, on the fly, w/o any help whatsoever from the previous admin. That is fact.

Let me repeat, and enhance what I said before. It doesn't matter how much we order, or when. Far more vaccine has been ordered by the US and others than Pfizer and Moderna can deliver in a short time. If they could be making more, they would be. They can't deliver it faster than they can make it, and there's no indication whatsoever that there is any inefficiency in distribution, other than a short-term ramp up at the beginning, due to the failure of many states to prepare.

 

[bluesmoke]

But the United States has one of the best vaccination rates on the planet; who ordered enough vaccine? The UK? Russia? Doesn't that make the OPs point?

The rate doesn't matter if you simply don't have enough vaccine to move forward. As we run out of vaccine, our administering doses drops as you can see:
CDC COVID Data Tracker
Besides the fact that we should be #1 considering how wealthy we are and the fact that we had the opportunity long ago to secure a much higher inventory of vaccine, but Trump refused.

 

[Metric Mouse]

The rate doesn't matter if you simply don't have enough vaccine to move forward. As we run out of vaccine, our administering doses drops as you can see:
CDC COVID Data Tracker
Besides the fact that we should be #1 considering how wealthy we are and the fact that we had the opportunity long ago to secure a much higher inventory of vaccine, but Trump refused.

Thank you for the discussion.

 

[bluesmoke]

I'm not aware of Republican governors forcing vaccine doses to be thrown away because they decided that the administration needed to be overly "woke." The problem with vaccine utilization appears to be a greater problem for liberal states which is odd since they tend to be more dense in population which should make it easier.

There simply hasn't been enough experience to tell if it's a red/blue state thing. If you scroll through the most recent data, there isn't that much diff in just an eyeball scan btx "red" and "blue" states.
US: Total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people (ourworldindata.org)
Distribution methodology varies by state. Some are getting more per capita to urban areas, and some states more per capita to rural areas. It gets complicated when an underserved suburban area pop starts going into urban areas to get their doses, thus overburdening that area. States are having to adjust.

 

[bluesmoke]

I disagree with your assertion that the article is RW bashing of the left given the source.

I also disagree that it’s all Trump’s fault based on his failure to secure supplies. Local distribution has been a problem especially in states that seemingly put a premium on some notion of fairness rather than just getting as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible.

None of that excuses Trump’s criminally negligent
handling of the pandemic

It is you that’s doing the bashing of progressives and using the NYT article to support your claim that “…there is a pattern of progressive leaning wrapping vaccine distribution in so much process that is meant to insure equity that vaccinations are lagging.” Now you cite the author as reason to suspect the validity of the article being an example of evidence supporting a RW position. That is contradictory and makes no sense. You question the source that you use to support your claim. Or perhaps I need some clarity.

I am saying that we do not yet have enough experience to determine if there is any kind of real quality/efficiency diff in distribution btx red and blue states. I’m already seeing more recent data that shows not much diff btx red/blue states in terms of how many are better or worse than avg. And, we can’t distribute and administer doses of what we don’t have.

I’m also saying that not having ordered enough vaccine ahead of time cannot help the situation at all. It puts us later in priority of receiving distribution from mfrs than otherwise would have been. I’ll add to that the Trump admin had practically no plan at all for effective distribution and did all the could to thwart the incoming Biden team from learning anything about the status of virus vaccine response. Trump had months ahead of time to put together an intelligent plan. All that put the virus response in a bad situation for both the immediate time and in the future. It can only hurt the economy and the nation’s health.

 

[GDViking]

The rate doesn't matter if you simply don't have enough vaccine to move forward. As we run out of vaccine, our administering doses drops as you can see:
CDC COVID Data Tracker
Besides the fact that we should be #1 considering how wealthy we are and the fact that we had the opportunity long ago to secure a much higher inventory of vaccine, but Trump refused.

And as reported this morning we will have enough vaccine for every adult by July.
As for distribution all major pharmacies started distribution this morning...

 

[bluesmoke]

Thank you for the discussion.

You're always welcome to the facts.

 

[CaughtInThe]

Why would we need a vaccine distribution system for a democratic hoax?

 

[bluesmoke]

And as reported this morning we will have enough vaccine for every adult by July.
As for distribution all major pharmacies started distribution this morning...

And you can take that to the bank! Whatever the odds, bet the farm.

Necessary doses in the arm to achieve herd immunity of the population will be completed by...(measured in time or number of deaths?).

 

[Metric Mouse]

Thank you for the discussion.

You're always welcome to the facts.

Like the fact that we have received the most vaccine on the planet, despite many countries ordering far, far more than us? The fact that ordering isn't the problem, unfortunately.

 

[bluesmoke]

Why would we need a vaccine distribution system for a democratic hoax?

Wouldn't a distribution hoax be appropriate?

 

[NWRatCon]

I have problems with the premise of this OP:

First is conflation. The article is not nearly as determinative as the OP suggests, and makes broad generalizations with extremely little detail to support its conclusions. By conflating European national programs and US State programs faults are cross-attributed.

Further, because distribution is often, especially in larger jurisdictions, decentralized, problems at the local level are attributed to the overall program, rather than seen as a result of local problems.

Finally, misattribution - the assertion of red-blue "lean" as the reason for the problem is ludicrous. California has more Republican-conservatives than 90% of the rest of the States. Vast swathes of the State are under GOP control. Gavin Newsome is facing a recall effort bankrolled and fomented by this collective. Here's the point: Larger States have a larger problem of scale and under-supply, smaller States have a problem with underresourced infrastructure.In short, it is a misdiagnosis by the author.

This misattribution is exacerbated by assumptions about the source. There is the assumption that the source is left-leaning, which is again an overgeneralization. Remember Judith Miller and the Iraq war jingoism? The NYT has an incredibly diverse staff. Moreover, because David Leonhart has some progressive views, it is assumed he is ideology-fixed on all issues. That is an asinine assumption.

The OP is a hot mess because the underlying premise is a hot mess.

 

[minnie616]

And you can take that to the bank! Whatever the odds, bet the farm.

Necessary doses in the arm to achieve herd immunity of the population will be completed by...(measured in time or number of deaths?).

Four reasons experts say coronavirus cases are dropping in the United States

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/02/14/why-coronavirus-cases-are-dropping/

The rolling daily average of new infections in the United States hit its all-time high of 248,200 on Jan. 12, according to data gathered and analyzed by The Washington Post. Since then, the number has dropped every day, hitting 91,000 on Sunday, its lowest level since November.
A former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention endorsed the idea that Americans are now seeing the effect of their good behavior —
....

In the IHME’s most recent briefing, published Friday, the authors write that cases have “declined sharply,” dropping nearly 50 percent since early January.
“Two [factors] are driving down transmission,” the briefing says. “1) the continued scale-up of vaccination helped by the fraction of adults willing to accept the vaccine reaching 71 percent, and 2) declining seasonality, which will contribute to declining transmission potential from now until August.”
....
In the past week, the country collectively administered 1.62 million vaccine doses per day, according to The Washington Post’s analysis of state and federal data. It was the best week yet for the shots, topping even President Biden’s lofty goal of 1.5 million vaccinations per day.

 

[bluesmoke]

I have problems with the premise of this OP:

First is conflation. The article is not nearly as determinative as the OP suggests, and makes broad generalizations with extremely little detail to support its conclusions. By conflating European national programs and US State programs faults are cross-attributed.

Further, because distribution is often, especially in larger jurisdictions, decentralized, problems at the local level are attributed to the overall program, rather than seen as a result of local problems.

Finally, misattribution - the assertion of red-blue "lean" as the reason for the problem is ludicrous. California has more Republican-conservatives than 90% of the rest of the States. Vast swathes of the State are under GOP control. Gavin Newsome is facing a recall effort bankrolled and fomented by this collective. Here's the point: Larger States have a larger problem of scale and under-supply, smaller States have a problem with underresourced infrastructure.In short, it is a misdiagnosis by the author.

This misattribution is exacerbated by assumptions about the source. There is the assumption that the source is left-leaning, which is again an overgeneralization. Remember Judith Miller and the Iraq war jingoism? The NYT has an incredibly diverse staff. Moreover, because David Leonhart has some progressive views, it is assumed he is ideology-fixed on all issues. That is an asinine assumption.

The OP is a hot mess because the underlying premise is a hot mess.

It is simply a nonsensical OP.

BTW. CA is a 50-50 conservative-lib state. The cons just don't get that. North of the San Francisco Bay area and Sacramento, you won't see many black people. Same, mostly, with the central valley down to Bakersfield. Then there's Orange County. CA gave us Reagan and Nixon. Man and woman marriage and English only law. Recalled lib Chief Justice and Gov. Like you cited, "Vast swathes...".

 

[bluesmoke]

Let me repeat, and enhance what I said before. It doesn't matter how much we order, or when. Far more vaccine has been ordered by the US and others than Pfizer and Moderna can deliver in a short time. If they could be making more, they would be. They can't deliver it faster than they can make it, and there's no indication whatsoever that there is any inefficiency in distribution, other than a short-term ramp up at the beginning, due to the failure of many states to prepare.

Let me repeat, and enhance what I said before. It doesn't matter how much we order, or when. Far more vaccine has been ordered by the US and others than Pfizer and Moderna can deliver in a short time. If they could be making more, they would be. They can't deliver it faster than they can make it, and there's no indication whatsoever that there is any inefficiency in distribution, other than a short-term ramp up at the beginning, due to the failure of many states to prepare.

Yes, if the mfr is unable to mfr the product, it doesn’t matter what is ordered. They can’t make delivery on what’s ordered if they can’t mfr enough to meet the order. By the same token, they’re not going to fill an order that isn’t placed. And, they’re going to fill the orders first placed before those placed next. Product is delivered from the mfr on a first come (first ordered) first served (first delivered) basis. I don't know how much clear I can be. No commitment, signed contract or amount of payment made is absolute guarantee of delivery. As I’ve posted at least two other times regarding administering doses, people can’t be given doses that aren’t delivered. And, ordered doses can’t be delivered that aren’t manufactured. And, doses not ordered won’t be delivered. And, first ordered, first delivered. Get back in line.

The other states did plan and prepare. Never having done anything like this of such magnitude before, and not having any fed govt, national, centralized support of any significance from Trump, the adage “no plan ever survives the first encounter with reality” comes into play. Most states had some difference in planning and preparation and encountered various problems upon implementation that were dissimilar which they have since been in the normal process of identifying and correcting. Same with other countries. Again, getting back to the OP topic, it’s not a blue/red state “progressive” govt thing. There is no significant data of any valid time period of experience to support the OP claim. It's not a distribution problem of "the left".

 

[Noodlegawd]

Yes, if the mfr is unable to mfr the product, it doesn’t matter what is ordered. They can’t make delivery on what’s ordered if they can’t mfr enough to meet the order. By the same token, they’re not going to fill an order that isn’t placed. And, they’re going to fill the orders first placed before those placed next. Product is delivered from the mfr on a first come (first ordered) first served (first delivered) basis. I don't know how much clear I can be. No commitment, signed contract or amount of payment made is absolute guarantee of delivery. As I’ve posted at least two other times regarding administering doses, people can’t be given doses that aren’t delivered. And, ordered doses can’t be delivered that aren’t manufactured. And, doses not ordered won’t be delivered. And, first ordered, first delivered. Get back in line.

The other states did plan and prepare. Never having done anything like this of such magnitude before, and not having any fed govt, national, centralized support of any significance from Trump, the adage “no plan ever survives the first encounter with reality” comes into play. Most states had some difference in planning and preparation and encountered various problems upon implementation that were dissimilar which they have since been in the normal process of identifying and correcting. Same with other countries. Again, getting back to the OP topic, it’s not a blue/red state “progressive” govt thing. There is no significant data of any valid time period of experience to support the OP claim. It's not a distribution problem of "the left".

Feel free to explain how any of that supports your claim that "had we ordered more earlier, we would be receiving what is manufactured earlier."

I suppose Trump could have ordered enough of each vaccine candidate to vaccinate the entire population of the US, just in case, and he could have insisted that each of them commit to deliver 100% of their output to the United States before they supply anyone else. On the other hand, I seem to recall a fair amount of criticism about the US trying to hog all the vaccine, and I certainly don't recall Biden saying that Trump should have done anything like that.