The latest polls

[upsideguy]

I doubt it, too heavy.

Lighter than a fully loaded 747.

 

[poweRob]

Lighter than a fully loaded 747.

Good point. I'm getting more convinced.

 

[azgreg]

I doubt it, too heavy.

 

[poweRob]

Here's the map with states that are pretty solid picked:



Barring some really bizarre miracle of trump flipping a state that is by all accounts out of reach, there are only 4 states in play.

1) New Hampshire - 4
2) North Carolina - 15
3) Florida - 29
4) Nevada - 6​

Hillary already has 269 electoral votes, needing just one more vote to win. So if she wins any of these four states, it's over. IF Trump wins all four of those states it is a 269 - 269 tie and the House will give the election to Trump.

The only wild card in this is Maine - 4 and Nebraska - 5 which both split their EC votes instead of all or nothing. Another wild-card would be a disobedient Elector who didn't vote the way his/her constituents did.

Right now, just a half day before voting starts, Hillary is leading in all four of those swing states more comfortably than she has in some time according to 538.

 

[Sandokan]

Professor who’s predicted 30 years of presidential elections correctly is doubling down on a Trump win
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ns-correctly-is-doubling-down-on-a-trump-win/

By Peter W. Stevenson October 28

Last month, the man who's tried to turn vote prediction into a science predicted a Trump win.

Allan J. Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, said Democrats would not be able to hold on to the White House.

In the intervening weeks, the campaign was rocked by a series of events. The release of the Access Hollywood tape obtained by The Washington Post was followed by accusations from a growing list of women of various improprieties on Trump's part, ranging from verbal abuse and harassment to outright sexual assault. Fix founder Chris Cillizza named Trump the winner of the inauspicious “Worst Week in Washington” award for four weeks running. At the same time, WikiLeaks released internal Clinton campaign emails, and the U.S. government flatly accused the Kremlin of being involved. And let's not forget those presidential debates.

So plenty has changed. But one thing hasn't: Lichtman, author of “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016,” is sticking with his prediction of a Trump victory.
Click link above for full article.

Professor Allan Lichtman is a progressive that dislike Trump very much. But regardless of his feeling he stays with his prediction that Trump will wing, based on his system “The Keys to the White House.” He has said that is prediction is not and endorsement or any candidate. He also said: “On the one hand I’ll be the biggest genius in the world. On the other hand, I’ll be the most depressed person in the world.”

 

[poweRob]

Professor Allan Lichtman is a progressive that dislike Trump very much. But regardless of his feeling he stays with his prediction that Trump will wing, based on his system “The Keys to the White House.” He has said that is prediction is not and endorsement or any candidate. He also said: “On the one hand I’ll be the biggest genius in the world. On the other hand, I’ll be the most depressed person in the world.”

I don't encourage you to go to vegas and put your money where your mouth is. Unless you don't want to ever retire.

 

[upsideguy]

Professor Allan Lichtman is a progressive that dislike Trump very much. But regardless of his feeling he stays with his prediction that Trump will wing, based on his system “The Keys to the White House.” He has said that is prediction is not and endorsement or any candidate. He also said: “On the one hand I’ll be the biggest genius in the world. On the other hand, I’ll be the most depressed person in the world.”

In 2012, someone on this site posted the prediction of a Colorado University professor that never had wrong on his Presidential forecast, much like this. Needless to say that his prediction of Mitt Romney knocked him off the list of unbeatens. I have not seen anyone post his prediction this time round.

 

[poweRob]

In 2012, someone on this site posted the prediction of a Colorado University professor that never had wrong on his Presidential forecast, much like this. Needless to say that his prediction of Mitt Romney knocked him off the list of unbeatens. I have not seen anyone post his prediction this time round.

Every election someone digs up some source of undefeated electoral prognisticating. They seem to pop up out of nowhere every four years.

 

[Sandokan]

Lichtman said that based on the 13 keys to predicting the results, the GOP will win the White House. The keys are: (1) incumbent-party mandate, (2) incumbency, (3) third party, (4) short-term economy, (5) long-term economy, (6) nomination contest, (7) policy change, (8) scandal, (9) social unrest, (10) foreign or military success, (11) foreign or military failure, (12) incumbent charisma, and (13) challenge charisma.

These keys are 13 true/false questions, and if six keys or more are false, the party in power will lose. The keys are not base on presidential polls.

 

[poweRob]

Lichtman said that based on the 13 keys to predicting the results, the GOP will win the White House. The keys are: (1) incumbent-party mandate, (2) incumbency, (3) third party, (4) short-term economy, (5) long-term economy, (6) nomination contest, (7) policy change, (8) scandal, (9) social unrest, (10) foreign or military success, (11) foreign or military failure, (12) incumbent charisma, and (13) challenge charisma.

These keys are 13 true/false questions, and if six keys or more are false, the party in power will lose. The keys are not base on presidential polls.

What about this election makes you think things are going by historical standards and measures in the slightest?

 

[trouble13]

I dont know who it favors but early exit polling is indicating the #1 thing people are voting for is a strong leader.

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[Chomsky]

Professor Allan Lichtman is a progressive that dislike Trump very much. But regardless of his feeling he stays with his prediction that Trump will wing, based on his system “The Keys to the White House.” He has said that is prediction is not and endorsement or any candidate. He also said: “On the one hand I’ll be the biggest genius in the world. On the other hand, I’ll be the most depressed person in the world.”

I saw this guy last week on MSNBC and he was leaving himself an out, and seemed to be back-peddling.

He pointed out one of his keys is based upon Gary Johnson getting 5% of the vote. Since Johnson is on the cusp of 5% that key will not be accurately determined until after the election, and in this election that key is also the tie-breaker of the 13 keys. So it seems according to his system the prediction hedges on whether Johnson breaks 5%, and we will only know that after tonight! Yish!

 

[Chomsky]

Every election someone digs up some source of undefeated electoral prognisticating. They seem to pop up out of nowhere every four years.

Yep.

The three sports prediction all predict HRC in the WH, though.

1] Redskins
2] LSU-Alabama
3] I Gov Perry'd the third one - you'll have to Google, if interested. :mrgreen:

 

[imagep]

"polling experts" are likely propaganda experts.. Give me one good reason to trust them?

If a particular polling organization puts out polls that are bigly wrong, then people will not trust them in the future. Thus, they have an interest in producing polling information that is as accurate as possible.

Now obviously, there can be polls that are politically bias, but the results of bias polls are pretty much identifiable by the fact that their results are outliers - and thus aren't even that likely to be reported by the media.

The best way to intepret poll information is to compare multiple polls, and evaluate them as to whether or not they are trending in the same direction.

So if 19 of 20 polls in a particular state show that candidate X is ahead by 5-10 points, you can pretty much rely on that information.

If nine polls show candidate x slightly ahead and one shows an exact tie and ten show the other candidate ahead, then it's fairly safe to assume that it's pretty much a tied race and can't be called until the actual election is completed and counted.

So tell me what evidence you have that the polls are skewed in any particular candidates direction?

 

[late]

Trump has to win all the swing states. All of them. Exit polling has him behind Hillary.

In all of them.

Votecastr Election Day Turnout Tracker

 

[VanceMack]

It's RIIIIGGED!111!!@11!1!!

When so many of the npolling agencies are or have representatives thnat are in bed with the DNC their results are at least suspect.

But why would anyone think the election results are rigged?

Some Problems Reported As Voters Head To Polls « CBS Pittsburgh

 

[Sandokan]

I saw this guy last week on MSNBC and he was leaving himself an out, and seemed to be back-peddling.

He pointed out one of his keys is based upon Gary Johnson getting 5% of the vote. Since Johnson is on the cusp of 5% that key will not be accurately determined until after the election, and in this election that key is also the tie-breaker of the 13 keys. So it seems according to his system the prediction hedges on whether Johnson breaks 5%, and we will only know that after tonight! Yish!

The 5 keys that are false are: 1, 3, 7, 11 and 12. The third party key is one of the sixth party keys that is against the Democratic Party, since the Libertarian Party Gary Johnson get 7.6% of the vote in the latest tracking poll, more than the 5% of the vote required by the third party key: IBD/TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll: Trump Holds 2-Point Lead Over Clinton As Election Day Arrives: Final IBD/TIPP Poll Results | Stock News & Stock Market Analysis - IBD

 

[trouble13]

If a particular polling organization puts out polls that are bigly wrong, then people will not trust them in the future. Thus, they have an interest in producing polling information that is as accurate as possible.

Now obviously, there can be polls that are politically bias, but the results of bias polls are pretty much identifiable by the fact that their results are outliers - and thus aren't even that likely to be reported by the media.

The best way to intepret poll information is to compare multiple polls, and evaluate them as to whether or not they are trending in the same direction.

So if 19 of 20 polls in a particular state show that candidate X is ahead by 5-10 points, you can pretty much rely on that information.

If nine polls show candidate x slightly ahead and one shows an exact tie and ten show the other candidate ahead, then it's fairly safe to assume that it's pretty much a tied race and can't be called until the actual election is completed and counted.

So tell me what evidence you have that the polls are skewed in any particular candidates direction?

Most if not all the polls have both canidates within the margine of error. The pollsters have about as much of a clue who is going to win as the rest of ud

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