4/8/21
Donald Trump isn't finished inflicting pain on the Republican Party. Republicans' unwillingness to deal with their Trump problem, as late as his second impeachment, could well cost them dearly in 2022 and beyond. My Republican colleague, and Trump pollster, Tony Fabrizio, racks up the data that should be scaring the daylights out his fellow travelers. For reasons we've discussed, most Republican office holders are more worried about primary challenges than about general election defeats - and that concern attaches them to Trump's hip. Fabrizio's data demonstrates the former president's formidable grip on the party he cares not a whit about. Over half would support him in 2024 presidential primary; 88 percent liked the job he did as president; 49 percent consider themselves more Trump supporters than Republicans; offered a choice among a Trump Republican, a Bush Republican, and Reagan Republican, 51 percent opt for the Trump Republican; 57 percent want him continuing to lead the GOP. To cross him is to take a very serious risk in a party primary. Indeed, nine of the 10 House Republicans who voted for impeachment have already drawn primary challengers. Fabrizio uses combinations of these questions to dissect his party into five tribes based on their assessments of Trump.
He identified 27 percent of Republicans as "Diehard Trumpers" who idolize the man and another 10 percent as "InfoWars" Republicans because they share those feelings about Trump, while also embracing QAnon conspiracy theories. That's 37 percent of Republicans who are really "always Trumpers." 2020 was close only because Republicans turned out and stuck together. Depending on which exit poll you look at, 91 to 94 percent of Republicans voted for Trump and GOP House candidates. Post-Trump and post-Jan. 6 insurrection, the Republican party is not evenly divided, but it is divided. All told, Fabrizio classed 15 percent of Republicans as "Never Trump" and another 20 percent as "post-Trump" - partisans who thought he may have done a good job, but don't want him leading the party and don't want to vote for him again. Now I'm not suggesting it's that simple or that voters will behave just that way. But while the GOP may not be split, it is fractured, and those fractures are significant enough to have real electoral consequences. Fealty to Trump that may be necessary to win a primary could be politically deadly in a general election. Republicans have no one to blame for this conundrum but themselves - and their leaders.