The "Ferguson Effect" -- in Chicago

[Jack Hays]

This seems like pretty firm evidence of a "Ferguson Effect" in Chicago. Lots of credibility in this assessment because 538 had not previously found a clear trend.

"CHICAGO — The severe spike in gun violence Chicago is experiencing can be dated to the release of the video in the Laquan McDonald case, a FiveThirtyEight analysis of crime data shows. The same analysis shows that the city has seen a significant drop in arrests made for homicides and nonfatal shootings, as well as other crimes, since the video’s release on Nov. 24. This suggests a decline in law enforcement activity that may be contributing to the rise in gun crime. . . ."

Gun Violence Spiked — And Arrests Declined — In Chicago Right After The Laquan McDonald Video Release

By Rob Arthur and Jeff Ashe

 

[Gaius46]

I wonder if the CPD Union rules allow for work slowdowns.

 

[MorrisDay]

This seems like pretty firm evidence of a "Ferguson Effect" in Chicago. Lots of credibility in this assessment because 538 had not previously found a clear trend.

"CHICAGO — The severe spike in gun violence Chicago is experiencing can be dated to the release of the video in the Laquan McDonald case, a FiveThirtyEight analysis of crime data shows. The same analysis shows that the city has seen a significant drop in arrests made for homicides and nonfatal shootings, as well as other crimes, since the video’s release on Nov. 24. This suggests a decline in law enforcement activity that may be contributing to the rise in gun crime. . . ."

Gun Violence Spiked — And Arrests Declined — In Chicago Right After The Laquan McDonald Video Release

By Rob Arthur and Jeff Ashe

Seems like a pretty logical conclusion.

 

[Hawkeye10]

I wonder if the CPD Union rules allow for work slowdowns.

There has been damn little reporting on this because it goes against the narrative that the elite wants out there, but it sure looks to me that what we see in Chicago is what happens when the guys in the front lines risking their lives no longer have confidence that their bosses have their backs....make them not motivated to carry out the mission.

 

[Chomsky]

This seems like pretty firm evidence of a "Ferguson Effect" in Chicago. Lots of credibility in this assessment because 538 had not previously found a clear trend.

"CHICAGO — The severe spike in gun violence Chicago is experiencing can be dated to the release of the video in the Laquan McDonald case, a FiveThirtyEight analysis of crime data shows. The same analysis shows that the city has seen a significant drop in arrests made for homicides and nonfatal shootings, as well as other crimes, since the video’s release on Nov. 24. This suggests a decline in law enforcement activity that may be contributing to the rise in gun crime. . . ."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-right-after-the-laquan-mcdonald-video-relea5[/URL]
I wonder if the CPD Union rules allow for work slowdowns.

Overtly, or tacitly?

The answer tacitly is yes, obviously denied by union reps.

Slowdowns (often during difficult contract negotiations) are known as the 'Blu Flu'.

Years ago, a local Chicago suburban Department took the opposite tact when their blue flu operation didn't get the suburb to the contract terms they police desired: So they instated 'zero tolerance traffic enforcement', paying special attention to the Mayor's office and administrative areas, along with the mall area that draws a large amount of visitors from areas outside the suburb. They started massively ticketing at 1 MPH over! For better or worse, it may have worked; their contract impasse was soon resolved.

 

[Chomsky]

There has been damn little reporting on this because it goes against the narrative that the elite wants out there, but it sure looks to me that what we see in Chicago is what happens when the guys in the front lines risking their lives no longer have confidence that their bosses have their backs....make them not motivated to carry out the mission.

Well, yes and no to your statement above. It's true many are fearful of everyone throwing everyone else under the bus to save their arses, but the rank & file are often pawns stuck in structural problems enforced and coerced from the top, or at the very least well tolerated at the top if not expected.

When something untoward goes down on the street, the rank & file guys are compelled to close ranks; it's the cultural and de rigueur. A new guy goes along with it, or leaves. These are the big leagues, with huge stakes and powerful and dangerous players. But for the CPD up 'till now, if you wanted in you went all they way or nothing. Unless you had a Chinaman or some serious juice somewhere.

They're like that because they fought powerful adversaries; they dealt with everyone from Capone, to the Outfit, to the El Rukins, to the Herrara Heroin and El Chapo Coke cartels! Along with assorted Bloods, Crips, Folks, People, Angels and Outlaws, Kings and Disciples. So these coppers 'live & die for each other', firstly. And without further comment or condoning, I can understand that.

 

[Socrates1]

This seems like pretty firm evidence of a "Ferguson Effect" in Chicago. Lots of credibility in this assessment because 538 had not previously found a clear trend.

"CHICAGO — The severe spike in gun violence Chicago is experiencing can be dated to the release of the video in the Laquan McDonald case, a FiveThirtyEight analysis of crime data shows. The same analysis shows that the city has seen a significant drop in arrests made for homicides and nonfatal shootings, as well as other crimes, since the video’s release on Nov. 24. This suggests a decline in law enforcement activity that may be contributing to the rise in gun crime. . . ."

Crime
Gun Violence Spiked — And Arrests Declined — In Chicago Right After The Laquan McDonald Video Release

By Rob Arthur and Jeff Ashe

When you have a party that sides with lying thugs and fault the cops as the bad guys and mandate them to stand down while fellow cops are being shot in their patrol cars , what would you think would happen ? Now they have to PAY the thugs a $1000 a month NOT to kill each other , don't you just love the democratic party ??? :roll:

 

[Hawkeye10]

Well, yes and no to your statement above. It's true many are fearful of everyone throwing everyone else under the bus to save their arses, but the rank & file are often pawns stuck in structural problems enforced and coerced from the top, or at the very least well tolerated at the top if not expected.

THis is what Rahm walked into:

March 01, 2011

(AP) — Chicago Police Superintendent Jody Weis is leaving his job immediately and won't stay on for two more months as Mayor Richard Daley had wanted him to, officials said Tuesday.

Chicago Alderman Anthony Beale confirmed that Tuesday was Weis' last day as the head of Chicago's police department and said former Superintendent Terry Hillard will take over in the interim.

The embattled Weis, a former FBI agent who was hired by Daley three years ago, has known for months that none of the major mayoral candidates, including Mayor-elect Rahm Emanuel, planned to extend his 3-year contract, which was to end at midnight Tuesday.

Daley on Monday told reporters he hoped Weis would stay until Daley's term ends in May. But Weis decided to leave immediately. Messages left Tuesday for Weis and police spokesmen were not immediately returned.

Weis, the first outsider to run the department in more than 40 years when he was hired by Daley, has been unpopular with many rank-and-file officers and their union. They have blamed him for what they say has been plummeting morale within the department, saying he has not supported them as previous superintendents have.

But Weis, who was hired with a mandate to clean up the reputation of a department plagued by instances of police brutality and misconduct, has been the chief during a time when violent crime has fallen dramatically — including a murder rate that dropped last year to a total not seen since the mid-1960s.

"It's a sad for the city of Chicago," said Beale.

Subscription Center | ChicagoBusiness.com

AND Rahm did a very poor job of improving things. This force has been such a mess for so long. I just watched a Callaway interview with Police Superintendent LeRoy Martin done 1988, man, chicago needs a chief like that right now, love this guy.

http://chicagotonight.wttw.com/2013/09/03/web-extra-remembering-leroy-martin

"He looked the TV reporter in the eye and he said, 'I have the biggest gang in Chicago, the difference is my gang serves the people. We will take care of business,'" Margolis recalled Mr. Martin saying.

Former Chicago Police Superintendent LeRoy Martin dies at 84 - tribunedigital-chicagotribune

 

[Chomsky]

THis is what Rahm walked into:

March 01, 2011


Subscription Center | ChicagoBusiness.com

AND Rahm did a very poor job of improving things. This force has been such a mess for so long. I just watched a Callaway interview with Police Superintendent LeRoy Martin done 1988, man, chicago needs a chief like that right now, love this guy.

Subscription Center | ChicagoBusiness.com


Former Chicago Police Superintendent LeRoy Martin dies at 84 - tribunedigital-chicagotribune

Ah, John Callaway!

He has a somewhat unassuming demeanor, but is very good! Bruce Dumont is excellent too. I saw him interview Henry Kissinger in the 80's, and at the very end of the interview Kissinger tells Dumont, "You're very good, you know"! Powerful words from the usual deadpan & stoic Kissinger!

WTTW CH 11 was amongst the best PBS stations in the country IMO, along with WGBH in Boston and WNET in NYC. :thumbs:

Now since cable came on the scene, I watch little PBS.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Ah, John Callaway!

He has a somewhat unassuming demeanor, but is very good! Bruce Dumont is excellent too. I saw him interview Henry Kissinger in the 80's, and at the very end of the interview Kissinger tells Dumont, "You're very good, you know"! Powerful words from the usual deadpan & stoic Kissinger!

WTTW CH 11 was amongst the best PBS stations in the country IMO, along with WGBH in Boston and WNET in NYC. :thumbs:

Now since cable came on the scene, I watch little PBS.

Agreed, but Chief Martin was my point. In the interview he says (paraphrase) 16:00" I intend to let the civil liberties people investigate me, and if they find that I have trespassed upon the constitutional rights of the people of the high rises then that is an issue that the residents and I are going to have to take to court".

It is 27 minutes....worth your time for a listen, both for the thread topic and for young folk to understand what things were like when journalists were talented and times were more civil.

 

[Chomsky]

Agreed, but Chief Martin was my point. In the interview he says (paraphrase) 16:00" I intend to let the civil liberties people investigate me, and if they find that I have trespassed upon the constitutional rights of the people of the high rises then that is an issue that the residents and I are going to have to take to court".

It is 27 minutes....worth your time for a listen, both for the thread topic and for young folk to understand what things were like when journalists were talented and times were more civil.

I couldn't access any videos ... no subscription ...

 

[Hawkeye10]

I couldn't access any videos ... no subscription ...

It did not copy/paste the first time, I went back and changed the link on an edit

http://chicagotonight.wttw.com/2013/09/03/web-extra-remembering-leroy-martin

I edit almost everything, trying to improve, I am about quality in everything I do, if I can.