The danger of Iran

[coolwalker]

To have a war on terror is like chasing the boogy-man...you can't fight people's fears. It is only a PC word to make us all feel better because the real name would be The Third Crusade...but no one is willing to say that out loud. No one other than the freak from Iran who will (according to all reports) have nuclear weapons by next year...2012. He has vowed to wipe Israel of the face of the earth and I have no doubt that is his intention. We need to withdraw troops from other areas now and begin preperations to halt this madman from completing his mission. If we don't, our entire world will be at war again and this time, there will be no winners.

 

[MKULTRABOY]

All reports? What about the reports that can't say theyre conclusively developing a deliverable nuke?

Also, "wiping Israel off the face of the map" is a misstranslation from Farsi (or persian or whatevs). That idiom doesnt exist in that language but the statement refers to never recognizing Israel geographically.

And if they do have a weapon things are far more likely to follow deterrence theory and we merely wont be able to genocidally eliminate them in nuclear holocaust without a retaliatory strike. :shrug:

Chill pills all around.

 

[coolwalker]

All reports? What about the reports that can't say theyre conclusively developing a deliverable nuke?

Also, "wiping Israel off the face of the map" is a misstranslation from Farsi (or persian or whatevs). That idiom doesnt exist in that language but the statement refers to never recognizing Israel geographically.

And if they do have a weapon things are far more likely to follow deterrence theory and we merely wont be able to genocidally eliminate them in nuclear holocaust without a retaliatory strike. :shrug:

Chill pills all around.

Head in the sand...quite odd for someone attending W&M.

 

[LaughAtTheWorld]

To have a war on terror is like chasing the boogy-man...you can't fight people's fears. It is only a PC word to make us all feel better because the real name would be The Third Crusade...but no one is willing to say that out loud. No one other than the freak from Iran who will (according to all reports) have nuclear weapons by next year...2012. He has vowed to wipe Israel of the face of the earth and I have no doubt that is his intention. We need to withdraw troops from other areas now and begin preperations to halt this madman from completing his mission. If we don't, our entire world will be at war again and this time, there will be no winners.

Just what the world needs, another war, another false report, another war freak who has no idea of the geopolitical landscape.
If you know what Iran is, you'll know that it's too technologically underdeveloped and poor to make nukes, you'll know that words by leader, often mad leaders of poor and/or aggressive countries are often empty promises (If Kim-Jong-Il's promises were fulfilled, we would have been conquered 30 years before), and nobody, not even ole Kimmy or Ahmadinejad (who's in the minor leagues on the mad leaders scale) would risk MAD.
Having a war just because of exaggerated media reports are unwise, you know

 

[MKULTRABOY]

Maybe it's all the international security and international relations theory classes that make me so naïve.

 

[coolwalker]

Just what the world needs, another war, another false report, another war freak who has no idea of the geopolitical landscape.
If you know what Iran is, you'll know that it's too technologically underdeveloped and poor to make nukes, you'll know that words by leader, often mad leaders of poor and/or aggressive countries are often empty promises (If Kim-Jong-Il's promises were fulfilled, we would have been conquered 30 years before), and nobody, not even ole Kimmy or Ahmadinejad (who's in the minor leagues on the mad leaders scale) would risk MAD.
Having a war just because of exaggerated media reports are unwise, you know

Oh gosh...you are right...I think the best course of action is to ignore any threat...my head always works better in the sand.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

Head in the sand...quite odd for someone attending W&M.

Oh gosh...you are right...I think the best course of action is to ignore any threat...my head always works better in the sand.

While this is a popular tactic because it is a very low cost reply, it's not actually a counter argument nor is it debate.
ymmv

 

[coolwalker]

While this is a popular tactic because it is a very low cost reply, it's not actually a counter argument nor is it debate.
ymmv

It was meant as sarcasm, but perhaps it went over your head.

 

[EagleAye]

Iran does have some pretty good surface-to-surface missile systems, but they would never use them to launch a nuclear attack on Israel. It would be the equivalent of national suicide. The worldwide response would be overwhelmingly against them. Hopefully, the response would not include nuclear. The conventional response would include a very long line of countries wanting to behead Iran's theocracy.

Iran's leaders may be crazy, but they're not stupid.

If anything, they would pull their usual maneuver of employing proxies. They would get Hezbollah or Hamas to do it for them. It wouldn't include include a missile system. That could be backtracked too easily. They might smuggle a crude nuclear bomb aboard a Turkish ship bound for Haifa and detonate it there, thus planting the blame on Turkey. Stopping such an attack is the job of intelligence services.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

It was meant as sarcasm...

No it wasn't.

...but perhaps it went over your head.

Nuh-uh. it went over your head because your head is in the sand! Hows that sand up the nose, buddy?

db8s r ossim


rofl

 

[Μολὼν λαβέ]

To have a war on terror is like chasing the boogy-man...you can't fight people's fears. It is only a PC word to make us all feel better because the real name would be The Third Crusade...but no one is willing to say that out loud. No one other than the freak from Iran who will (according to all reports) have nuclear weapons by next year...2012. He has vowed to wipe Israel of the face of the earth and I have no doubt that is his intention. We need to withdraw troops from other areas now and begin preperations to halt this madman from completing his mission. If we don't, our entire world will be at war again and this time, there will be no winners.

:beatdeadhorse:lamo

 

[LaughAtTheWorld]

Oh gosh...you are right...I think the best course of action is to ignore any threat...my head always works better in the sand.

Obviously, you haven't read a word of my post or you have poor reading comprehension. I prefer to think it's the former

 

[EagleAye]

Don't forget those bunker busters we're selling to Israel.

 

[USAEqualsTerror]

Iran has no choice but to arm themselves with nukes. Mutually Assured Destruction seems to be the only thing sparing a country from being attacked. Iraq almost achieved it. Kudo's to Iran for having the ability and the persistence. As far as Israel goes, they should feel safe knowing Iran will not attack with the nukes that are keeping them from attacking Iran.

 

[LaughAtTheWorld]

Iran has no choice but to arm themselves with nukes. Mutually Assured Destruction seems to be the only thing sparing a country from being attacked. Iraq almost achieved it. Kudo's to Iran for having the ability and the persistence. As far as Israel goes, they should feel safe knowing Iran will not attack with the nukes that are keeping them from attacking Iran.

WTF are you talking about....

 

[jasonxe]

I think he is saying that Iran is afraid of becoming another Iraq or Afghan so they're trying to get a nuke to get some respect and not fear a possible invasion of their country.

 

[EagleAye]

Iran has no choice but to arm themselves with nukes. Mutually Assured Destruction seems to be the only thing sparing a country from being attacked. Iraq almost achieved it. Kudo's to Iran for having the ability and the persistence. As far as Israel goes, they should feel safe knowing Iran will not attack with the nukes that are keeping them from attacking Iran.

Funny thinking. Even after Iran had proclaimed it desired the total destruction of Israel, and had no nuclear program at all, no one attacked Iran. Now that Iran is working hard on nuclear weapons, it's far closer to being attacked than ever before. If their intention was to "protect" themselves with nukes, it has backfired badly.

 

[Simon W. Moon]

Just an fyi, there's no rational Western actor who desires open military conflict with Iran. It's just bad for business.
Iran has no desire to be mired in a military conflict either for the same reasons.
Now, that doesn't insure that it will never happen, but the pressure is solidly against it.

I do expect that there will continue to be a non-military war waged by multiple sides which are determined through transient alliances.

 

[cpwill]

To have a war on terror is like chasing the boogy-man...you can't fight people's fears. It is only a PC word to make us all feel better because the real name would be The Third Crusade...but no one is willing to say that out loud. No one other than the freak from Iran who will (according to all reports) have nuclear weapons by next year...2012. He has vowed to wipe Israel of the face of the earth and I have no doubt that is his intention. We need to withdraw troops from other areas now and begin preperations to halt this madman from completing his mission. If we don't, our entire world will be at war again and this time, there will be no winners.

I work in military intelligence - and have spent some time studying Iran. understanding that the following is only cpwill's personal opinion and shouldn't be construed to be the assessment of the intelligence community, the DOD, or the USMC

1. their conventional offensive capability is exceedingly limited
2. their unconventional offensive capability is top tier - and probably rates up with that of Israel, the US, and a small handful of others.
3. their defense is multi-layered, and would be one helluva bitch to break open. this would not be like Libya; it would not be like Iraq.

the time to do this isn't now. it was 6 years ago. we;ve worked subterfuge (assasination), and we've worked netattack (stuxnet). even the Saudi's are willing to let the Israelis' use their airspace in order to take out Iran's nuclear program... but as you say, time is of the essence, and Israel is facing quite alot of pressures from different directions right now with her chief ally acting like at best a disinterested aquaintance. if we are going to break open natanz and the others, our window is closing.

 

[lpast]

Iran has no choice but to arm themselves with nukes. Mutually Assured Destruction seems to be the only thing sparing a country from being attacked. Iraq almost achieved it. Kudo's to Iran for having the ability and the persistence. As far as Israel goes, they should feel safe knowing Iran will not attack with the nukes that are keeping them from attacking Iran.

huh........

 

[lpast]

I work in military intelligence - and have spent some time studying Iran. understanding that the following is only cpwill's personal opinion and shouldn't be construed to be the assessment of the intelligence community, the DOD, or the USMC

1. their conventional offensive capability is exceedingly limited
2. their unconventional offensive capability is top tier - and probably rates up with that of Israel, the US, and a small handful of others.
3. their defense is multi-layered, and would be one helluva bitch to break open. this would not be like Libya; it would not be like Iraq.



the time to do this isn't now. it was 6 years ago. we;ve worked subterfuge (assasination), and we've worked netattack (stuxnet). even the Saudi's are willing to let the Israelis' use their airspace in order to take out Iran's nuclear program... but as you say, time is of the essence, and Israel is facing quite alot of pressures from different directions right now with her chief ally acting like at best a disinterested aquaintance. if we are going to break open natanz and the others, our window is closing.

That sounds ominous...I found your statement that their unconventional offensive capablitly rates with israel and ours shocking....just what do we know that they have that puts us in the same league with us CP... I absolutely agree the window is closing for Israel and I believe the only reason israel hasnt made the move is the hostility they have felt from the obama admin.
Our problem and maybe our demise will be a coalition forming against us of superpowers...like a russia, china, iran etc coalition...I know the teaparty is harping about cutting this and cu tting that...I dont see how this is the time to cut our military....seems like the worst of times...even if we swiftly exit Iraq and afghanistan

 

[Frolicking Dinosaurs]

The Iranian leaders may be crazy, but they are not stupid. Attacking Israel would bring nearly the whole world down on them. They are not about to do that.

I feel Iran is engaging in a cold war similar to what happened between the US and the USSR. Iran is developing (or has developed) weapons to assure it could wipe Israel off the map if it were attacked. Since Israel is protected by many countries, having it known you have the means and will to wipe Israel off the map if your country is attacked would be quite an effective deterrent to having your country attacked.

 

[LaughAtTheWorld]

I work in military intelligence - and have spent some time studying Iran. understanding that the following is only cpwill's personal opinion and shouldn't be construed to be the assessment of the intelligence community, the DOD, or the USMC

1. their conventional offensive capability is exceedingly limited
2. their unconventional offensive capability is top tier - and probably rates up with that of Israel, the US, and a small handful of others.
3. their defense is multi-layered, and would be one helluva bitch to break open. this would not be like Libya; it would not be like Iraq.

the time to do this isn't now. it was 6 years ago. we;ve worked subterfuge (assasination), and we've worked netattack (stuxnet). even the Saudi's are willing to let the Israelis' use their airspace in order to take out Iran's nuclear program... but as you say, time is of the essence, and Israel is facing quite alot of pressures from different directions right now with her chief ally acting like at best a disinterested aquaintance. if we are going to break open natanz and the others, our window is closing.

I do know that:
1. Their conventional weapons are exceedingly limited, as most poor countries like North Korea, Cuba, etc... are
2. Their unconventional weapons are much more better than their conventional weapons, which also seems to be the doctrine of poor countries such as North Korea such as special forces (NK has more than 100000 special forces), etc... However, I didn't know their unconventional capabilities were that strong
3. I had no idea about their defense, I do know that being the 18th richest country, they are substantially better than either Libya or Iraq, but didn't know their defenses were to that extent

 

[cpwill]

Iran has no choice but to arm themselves with nukes. Mutually Assured Destruction seems to be the only thing sparing a country from being attacked. Iraq almost achieved it. Kudo's to Iran for having the ability and the persistence. As far as Israel goes, they should feel safe knowing Iran will not attack with the nukes that are keeping them from attacking Iran.

until, of course, it's time to start preparing the way for the 13th Imam....

 

[cpwill]

I do know that:
1. Their conventional weapons are exceedingly limited, as most poor countries like North Korea, Cuba, etc... are
2. Their unconventional weapons are much more better than their conventional weapons, which also seems to be the doctrine of poor countries such as North Korea such as special forces (NK has more than 100000 special forces), etc... However, I didn't know their unconventional capabilities were that strong
3. I had no idea about their defense, I do know that being the 18th richest country, they are substantially better than either Libya or Iraq, but didn't know their defenses were to that extent

this deserves it's own thread, but you know as well as i do that 100,000 number is bogus. the amphibious sniper brigades, the recon beauro guys... okay, that i can see. but the plain ole 'line infantry special forces'. i mean, cmon.... that's like when our army decided to improve the quality of their personel, not by hardening training, but by giving everyone a beret to wear.