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The Chances for a Tory-Controlled Britain Yet Again?

flip2

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I love learning and watching foreign elections and the politicking involved.

The recent May Elections in the UK was very interesting.

Those familiar with UK politics (those that actually live there) I hope can comment on the state of party politics over there. Did Michael Howard really have a chance at becoming Prime Minister? How well did he discipline the Conservative Party in 18 months? Do the Tories have a good chance at becoming the majority party in Parliament next time around?
 

GarzaUK

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flip2 said:
I love learning and watching foreign elections and the politicking involved.

The recent May Elections in the UK was very interesting.

Those familiar with UK politics (those that actually live there) I hope can comment on the state of party politics over there. Did Michael Howard really have a chance at becoming Prime Minister? How well did he discipline the Conservative Party in 18 months? Do the Tories have a good chance at becoming the majority party in Parliament next time around?
Nah the Tories didn't really have chance, even after a very weakened Blair. Howard however did get them moving in the right direction though, but no more than that. The Conservative Party lacks charisma with voters and is basically out of touch with popular culture. In frank they are boring, and they don't have any answers to any of the problems that the UK face.
Probably one of the reasons they gained seats, is that old Tory voters that voted for Blair last time switch over.
Will they become the majority party. Possibly, but things have to be set in motion.
1. The Tories need a DECENT leader, in touch with the younger generation.
2. Labour Party have to screw up, but if Brown (very popular) replaces the retiring Blair, I don't see this happening.
3. The Liberal Democrats miss the breakthrough of gaining conservative seats. If they do, the ever growing Lib Dems might eat up their seats.

Frankly though the Tories need to redo themselves, they think in the past way too much. Also, in the 80's, early 90's they screwed up the UK something shocking.
 

XPhile2868

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I dont think the Tories will get back in power for a long time. Too many people rightly distrust the Tories after their complete mishandling of the country during the 1980's and early 90's. Even if they hadn't been in power then, there are places where people would vote for a dog if it had a red rosette on! People don't trust the Conservative Party.

In regards to your three points -

1. They do, although very few young people are attracted to a party which is anti-immigration. Remember that most of the populace within the ethnic minorities is very young, so if the Tories continue with this rascism, they will lose a lot of the youth votes.

2. There are rumours that Blair is to step down in 18 months, although this hasn't been confirmed as Blair would simply be lame for the whole time he would have left in office. Whenever Blair steps down, Brown is virtually guaranteed a shot at the Premiership - i could quite easily see a landslide victory for Labour under Brown.

3. I dont understand this one, sorry.
 

Plain old me

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Speaking as a British 16 year old, and talking politics to a number of my friends, it seems to me that the Tories are going to find very few allies with us younger generation, no matter who wins the leadership. The majority of politically aware people I talk to actually favour Lib Dem.

However, with voter turnouts as they are is my generation actually going to count much towards future elections? We'll have to see.
 

mikeangelo

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the lib dems will not come to power for a long time. their showing this time round was poor.

Labour is mistrusted by the people. The tories are simply the tories and have lost all grassroot support. This was the perfect time for the lib dems to surge foward. they failed. their gains were marginal. This situation is unlikely to be as favourable to the lib dems again.

A tory controlled britain. not the next general election. maybe the one after that that if they play their cards right. Brown will not appeal as much as Blair. I feel the country will be in safer hands under Brown, but the politics of the labour party will become drier. Brown lacks wow factor. As a consequence the labour party will fall with Blair.

Under Blair each and every sector of the nation has gone down the tubes. be it NHS reform , military reform, social reform, educational reform etc. however the people are distracted by the colliseum games being played out in the streets of basra or the mountains of khandahar etc.

to understand British politics we have to appreciatre that the british people as a whole are not politically aware. their favourite paper is a tabloid called the Sun. There understanding of the differences between the political parties is limited to mere slogans.
 

matay_brit

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mikeangelo said:
the lib dems will not come to power for a long time. their showing this time round was poor.

Labour is mistrusted by the people. The tories are simply the tories and have lost all grassroot support. This was the perfect time for the lib dems to surge foward. they failed. their gains were marginal. This situation is unlikely to be as favourable to the lib dems again.

A tory controlled britain. not the next general election. maybe the one after that that if they play their cards right. Brown will not appeal as much as Blair. I feel the country will be in safer hands under Brown, but the politics of the labour party will become drier. Brown lacks wow factor. As a consequence the labour party will fall with Blair.

Under Blair each and every sector of the nation has gone down the tubes. be it NHS reform , military reform, social reform, educational reform etc. however the people are distracted by the colliseum games being played out in the streets of basra or the mountains of khandahar etc.

to understand British politics we have to appreciatre that the british people as a whole are not politically aware. their favourite paper is a tabloid called the Sun. There understanding of the differences between the political parties is limited to mere slogans.
I disagree with your pro-conservative views. I think that you under-rate Browns popularity. True, Blair was the one who made the labour party what it is but i think that Brown is basically half of it already and that he does have the charisma and definetly is smart enough to continue labours domination. The future remains unceratin about the lib dems they may continue to grow, being the most left wing of all three or they may as you say fade away. I think the tories won't seize power for at least another decade, it really does depend on what leader they pick. If he's over 50 their doomed.
 

mikeangelo

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I don't think that the lib dems will fade away. i just think that with their present policies they are doomed to be number 3. There is no other competition for the number three spot as things stand. But having said that, labour were doomed to be number 2, until blair and the new labour project came about. In my opinion what new labour did was not particlarly intelligent. It was however bold. I don't think the british people understood what the new reforms were about. I still don't think the british people en masse understand the reforms that are taking place. The people can tell you the plans for the next 5 yrs. However they do not know where this will ultimately lead 50 years from now. The people wanted reform and new labour delivered it.

The policies the tory party makes and its marketing will define its outcome. The tories need to increase their self confidence. They are turning into an opposition party as opposed to one that governs. noone will ever vote for an opposition party. This is what had plagued labour, until Tony came along.
 

GarzaUK

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mikeangelo said:
I don't think that the lib dems will fade away. i just think that with their present policies they are doomed to be number 3. There is no other competition for the number three spot as things stand. But having said that, labour were doomed to be number 2, until blair and the new labour project came about. In my opinion what new labour did was not particlarly intelligent. It was however bold. I don't think the british people understood what the new reforms were about. I still don't think the british people en masse understand the reforms that are taking place. The people can tell you the plans for the next 5 yrs. However they do not know where this will ultimately lead 50 years from now. The people wanted reform and new labour delivered it.

The policies the tory party makes and its marketing will define its outcome. The tories need to increase their self confidence. They are turning into an opposition party as opposed to one that governs. noone will ever vote for an opposition party. This is what had plagued labour, until Tony came along.
I'm a Lib Dem supporter and I agree they need to make some reforms on their policies or they will be a third party. However more young people see Lib Dems as a proper party, while the older generations know and have only known Tories vs Labour. Personally as younger generations grow to voting age, so will the Lib Dems grow. However this not secure a big place in parliament.

Let me remind you that some of the people voted Labour so that the Conservatives would not get into power. Its still fresh in the minds of people that the Tories basically ruined this country in the 80's & 90's.

Most British people don't understand reforms and could only give you a vague definition of the word "reform", this is not helped my partisan tabloids like The Sun and The Mirror - who basically tell the common people what to think.

Just a question. Maybe our election should us a Proportional Representation System?
 

mikeangelo

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i don't blame the papers. It is not the papers responsibility to talk to the people about political proposals. It is the duty of the ministers in charge. They should produce pamphlets, organise public talks etc. The kind of stuff they used to do when they were trying to get elected in the first place.

I feel that the problem with the younger generation is that they are becoming disillusioned with politics. That is different to ambivalent. Even though they will lean towards the lib dems at the moment, will the younger people actually go and vote? Do they have enough faith that the lib dems can actually change things.

My own personal view is that the political parties will have to pander to the elite that run the country if they want to come in to power and hence the policies will never really change. There is cross party consensus on the need to stay in Iraq. The single biggest of the labour government.
 

Plain old me

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GarzaUK said:
Just a question. Maybe our election should us a Proportional Representation System?
hmmmm, a tricky one, especially with Labour having come out of the last election with the smallest percentage of the vote in British History for a winning party. However, as things go I believe the pro's of the current system outways the pro's of proportional voting, mainly it keeps more extreme parties, like the BNP, out of parliament, as anti-democratic as that may be I think its a good thing. It also ensures the overall winning party has enough seats to maintain power and lead an effective government.

As for the Lib Dems, I think their time will come, they didn't make nearly as many seats as they hoped this time around but if the Tory leadership gives another dud then they could become stronger.
 
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