Texas: The miracle that isn't

[Fenton]

Let me remind you, from your OWN SOURCE, oil jobs in TX have roughly 5 times of an economic impact as compared to other jobs in Tx.

So now compute that into the latest figures on job losses:

Oh, what a difference a few months makes.


Texas’ 25,400 job losses in March led the nation, according to data released by the government today.

The state last led the nation in job gains in December, with 46,200 new jobs.

We already knew that Texas lost that many jobs last month — the biggest job loss in more than four years — because the Texas Workforce Commission reported those numbers on Friday. But today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released employment and unemployment data for all states so we can compare Texas to the rest of the nation.

And we know why: The persistent low oil prices.

At first, Texas saw job declines mainly in the oil and gas industry, starting in January (and every month since). But now, effects of low oil prices have spread across the state economy and into other industries.

Oil prices have fallen bout 50 percent since June. Oil and related companies have announced tens of thousands of job cuts in Texas and other states.

Just last week, Schlumberger Ltd. said it planned to cut 11,000 jobs — on top of 9,000 layoffs announced in January, totaling about 15 percent of its global workforce. The oilfield services company is based in Houston and Paris.

While the oil and gas industry in Texas lost 2,800 jobs last month, three other industries (construction; professional and business services; and trade, transportation and utilities) lost more jobs.​

Turn of the tables: Texas led nation in job losses in March | | Dallas Morning News

Sure.....

You don't need to worry about Texas. We are doingsl just fine without your wishful thinking and embarrassing predictions of our demise.

You lefties should turn your attention to States and Cities that REALLY NEED YOUR HELP.

Like California, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Chicago, Baltimore, St Lois, Atlanta, Detroit, Camden, New York, etc, etc.

 

[mmi]

the huge disparity between Texas and California

You keep referring to that, but you don't back it up with anything more than vague or misleading statements. The difference I'm seeing is that California is very short of water and you guys have too much of it, at least in some areas.

The whole country was hit by the Great Recession, some places worse than others. The whole country has largely recovered, some places more rapidly and more completely than others. Yer enthusiasm for the Texas economy is not supported by anything I can find. I will consider anything substantial you have to offer.

the Chronicle isn't doing well lately.

Subscriber numbers seem to be trending at about the same rate as other newspapers.

So Millions of Americans haven't moved to Texas in the last 7 years?

How many have moved out?

Between Apr 1 2010 and Jul 1 2012, Texas had a net plus of 290K. Where are you getting yer figure? Yerbutt, TX would be my guess.

Found some more. Net plus of 144K in 2013. And here's the one that counts in this context: "Over the past decade [2005-14], Texas has gained 1.2 million new residents from other states."

So not a net of "millions." And it took ten years to get to 1.2 million.

 

[Gimmesometruth]

Sure.....

You don't need to worry about Texas. We are doingsl just fine without your wishful thinking and embarrassing predictions of our demise.

You lefties should turn your attention to States and Cities that REALLY NEED YOUR HELP.

Like California, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Chicago, Baltimore, St Lois, Atlanta, Detroit, Camden, New York, etc, etc.

Pro tip:

This thread is about Texas economics, so if you want to distract about other states, you are simply admitting defeat.

Instead of actually addressing the points of the much greater impact the loss of oil jobs has on the Texas economy and the continuing loss of those jobs, you divert the debate to other states.

You lose.

 

[Gimmesometruth]

Sure.....

You don't need to worry about Texas.

No, but perhaps your argument should...

Grr. I’ve been meaning to write about the Texas economic stumble, but have to some extent been scooped by the business desk. Still, there’s more to say, particularly about the role of the energy sector in the previous boom.

There are various estimates out there, many of which seem to me to understate the case. Here’s the approach that makes sense to me: look at the BEA data on state-level real GDP by sector, and ask how much of the growth in overall GDP can be accounted for by growth in mining, including both direct output and support activities. Here’s what I get, for Texas and the nation as a whole:

How I read this: if mining growth had been the only thing driving overall Texas growth, it would have caused the state economy to grow by 6.7 percent over the period 2005-2013, compared with 1 percent for the nation as a whole. Meanwhile, overall Texas growth was 22 points more than overall US growth; so I’d say that a quarter of the difference can be attributed to the energy-sector surge.

But we don’t want to stop there: there’s also a multiplier effect, as energy jobs boost demand for other goods and services. Nakamura and Steinsson put regional multipliers at 1.5. Including that effect, I get the mining boom accounting for 35 or more percent of the excess Texas growth — let’s say a third.

It’s not the whole story; cheap housing and the still-ongoing southward shift thanks to air conditioning are also likely factors. But fracking-related growth has been big enough that the Texas slowdown now that oil prices are way down makes a lot of sense.​

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/fracking-and-the-texas-non-miracle/?_r=0

 

[Gimmesometruth]

Sure.....

You don't need to worry about Texas. We are doingsl just fine without your wishful thinking and embarrassing predictions of our demise.

Since the 1980s, direct employment in oil and natural gas exploration and production has declined to 2.5 percent of the Texas work force from 4.5 percent, according Mine K. Yücel, senior vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The oil and gas industry’s contribution to the state’s economic output has fallen to 13 percent from 19 percent during the same time period.

Still, as the leading state in oil production and reserves, with two of the three shale fields responsible for nearly doubling crude output in the United States in recent years, petroleum is still king of Texas. And that means busts as well as booms.
“We are definitely slowing, and I think we are going to continue to see weakness,” Ms. Yücel said.

She noted that the Dallas Fed had lowered its forecast for the state’s economic growth rate to 0.5 or 1 percent from the 1.5 percent rate projected at the beginning of the year. That is a significant fall from the robust pace of 3.4 percent growth in 2014, a year in which oil prices galloped before beginning to turn in July.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/b...s-for-rick-perrys-presidential-ambitions.html

 

[ksu_aviator]

Pro tip:

This thread is about Texas economics, so if you want to distract about other states, you are simply admitting defeat.

Instead of actually addressing the points of the much greater impact the loss of oil jobs has on the Texas economy and the continuing loss of those jobs, you divert the debate to other states.

You loose.

Actually, this thread is about how (according to the OP) Texas' economic model is inferior to some unknown/assumed economic model. Comparisons are perfectly valid.

But, Texas has added 1.5 million jobs since 2007 and the loss last month was 25,400? (maybe, we don't get the official numbers for 3 more days) That's still a huge net positive. A correction after large growth is inevitable. We are still going to see a sub 5% unemployment and layoffs appear to have stopped. So June will probably show growth again.

http://www.politifact.com/texas/sta...erry-says-texas-gained-15-million-jobs-over-/

 

[Gimmesometruth]

Actually, this thread is about how (according to the OP) Texas' economic model is inferior to some unknown/assumed economic model. Comparisons are perfectly valid.

Um, both articles cited in the OP deal with the collapse of oil prices and the effect they have on the Texas economy. Distractions about other states IN LIEU OF counter arguments to what has been presented (Texas economics) is pure hand waving.

But, Texas has added 1.5 million jobs since 2007 and the loss last month was 25,400? (maybe, we don't get the official numbers for 3 more days) That's still a huge net positive. A correction after large growth is inevitable. We are still going to see a sub 5% unemployment and layoffs appear to have stopped. So June will probably show growth again.

Um, the layoffs have not "stopped", even by your own cite (did you even read your contradiction?) and they are coming from an industry where those wages have nearly 5 times the effect of average employment (according to Fenton's Texas FED source). I would be worried if I was in Texas with projections of 0.5% to 1.0% GDP gains without the effects of the flooding.

 

[Removable Mind]

Opinion ?

So Millions of Americans haven't moved to Texas in the last 7 years ?

Texas didn't add MORE GOP seats to its legislature in 2014 ?

The Democrats ridiculous candidate Wendy Davis didn't get thoroughly beaten by a better candidate with actual qualifications ?

Are you even a Texan?

 

[ksu_aviator]

Um, both articles cited in the OP deal with the collapse of oil prices and the effect they have on the Texas economy. Distractions about other states IN LIEU OF counter arguments to what has been presented (Texas economics) is pure hand waving.

Um, the layoffs have not "stopped", even by your own cite (did you even read your contradiction?) and they are coming from an industry where those wages have nearly 5 times the effect of average employment (according to Fenton's Texas FED source). I would be worried if I was in Texas with projections of 0.5% to 1.0% GDP gains without the effects of the flooding.

I work for a company in the industry and I can tell you that layoffs have stopped.

 

[Fenton]

Pro tip:

This thread is about Texas economics, so if you want to distract about other states, you are simply admitting defeat.

Instead of actually addressing the points of the much greater impact the loss of oil jobs has on the Texas economy and the continuing loss of those jobs, you divert the debate to other states.

You lose.

Pro tip, this thread is a hack thread thats attempting to misrepresent Texas's economy.

To make that crystal clear I've used California's economy as a comparison

 

[Fenton]

Are you even a Texan?

A proud Texan.

 

[Gimmesometruth]

Pro tip, this thread is a hack thread thats attempting to misrepresent Texas's economy.

To make that crystal clear I've used California's economy as a comparison

You are dancing away from the point, as you always do. The point remains, Texas still is dominated by oil production and refinement, a 0.5% gdp gain in 2015 is a very big downturn and could very well end up as recession.

 

[mmi]

I work for a company in the industry and I can tell you that layoffs have stopped.

From what I can find, it may be more accurate to say that layoffs have slowed rather than stopped. And businesses outside the industry itself are of course affected.

"New study shows improvements in energy layoff numbers," ktxs.com, Jun 11 2015

June 1 — San Benito schools mull more layoffs: So far the board has voted to not renew 48 employee contracts.

June 2 — Gulf Marine Fabricators, a subsidiary of Gulf Island Fabrication, notified Texas officials it plans to lay off 554 employees at its Aransas Pass shipyard.

June 8 — The Texas Workforce Commission recently announced layoffs involving a number of North Texas companies, including Aramark, Horizon Lines Inc. and Hodges Trucking that will result in the loss of 295 jobs.

June 8 — Houston-based commercial real estate firm PM Realty Group is laying off 52 employees related to the termination of a building maintenance contract with downtown office tenant Chevron Corp.

June 14 — CB&I Enterprises [Tyler] will lay off 20 employees this week.

June 15 — Some 58 Head Start employees in the northern part of the Coastal Bend are set to be laid off by July 31.

June 15 — The oil industry has been aware for years of a looming exodus of oil workers who joined in the 1970s in a so-called Great Crew Change. But a sharp drop in oil prices from June to January that triggered spending cuts and limited opportunities for senior technical staff, threatens to speed up their departures. That further complicates energy firms’ balancing act as they cull thousands of field and office jobs to save cash, but try to retain seasoned scientists and engineers essential for oil exploration when prices rebound and drilling resumes.

A note on yer signature: Yer allies will appreciate it if you (incorrectly) use Democrat as an adjective — "Democrat party." It's enact, not inact. And "modern day" should be hyphenated.

 

[Fenton]

You are dancing away from the point, as you always do. The point remains, Texas still is dominated by oil production and refinement, a 0.5% gdp gain in 2015 is a very big downturn and could very well end up as recession.

Nonsense.

Texas's economy is highly diverse with multiple sectors seeing growth over the last 7 years.

Actually ALL sectors of our economy saw growth..

 

[mmi]

over the last 7 years … ALL sectors of our economy saw growth

It's a miracle!!

Ya wanna know which sector has lost jobs in many states? The public sector. I guess we can agree on something — Obummer is the most incompetent socialist I've ever seen.

 

[JohnfrmClevelan]

More Texanomics for your amusement:

Addicting Info – Texas Says ‘F*ck The Constitution’ And Decides To Deposit Fantasy Gold To Back State Currency

 

[Fenton]

More Texanomics for your amusement:

Addicting Info – Texas Says ‘F*ck The Constitution’ And Decides To Deposit Fantasy Gold To Back State Currency

Lol !!

So much for credibility. Its such a nice hack source you posted there.

Why not just source Salon next time ?

Or Media Matters ?

 

[pdog]

Opinion ?
Texas didn't add MORE GOP seats to its legislature in 2014 ?

The Democrats ridiculous candidate Wendy Davis didn't get thoroughly beaten by a better candidate with actual qualifications ?

This is a ridiculous point. Texas has some of the most gerrymandered districts in the country:

 

[Fenton]

This is a ridiculous point. Texas has some of the most gerrymandered districts in the country:

A ridiculous point is blaming Texas's GOP majority on anything other than the Texas voter's satisfaction with their State representatives.

Its just sour grapes from a marginalized ideology who TRIED and failed to turn Texas into another Democrat failure of a State.

Democrats launch plan to turn Texas blue - Alexander Burns - POLITICO.com

If it was so hopeless because of Gerrymandering why would the Democrat party waste millions of dollars trying to do the impossible ?

 

[MTAtech]

A ridiculous point is blaming Texas's GOP majority on anything other than the Texas voter's satisfaction with their State representatives.

Its just sour grapes from a marginalized ideology who TRIED and failed to turn Texas into another Democrat failure of a State.

Democrats launch plan to turn Texas blue - Alexander Burns - POLITICO.com

If it was so hopeless because of Gerrymandering why would the Democrat party waste millions of dollars trying to do the impossible ?

It's difficult to say that Texas voter's are satisfied with their elected officials, when Texas has the lowest voter turnout in the country at 33%.

But if the Texas GOP is confident with their policy superiority, why do they need to implement measures that turn voters away from the polls -- especially those that traditionally vote Democratic?

If Texas is so great, why did the Texas Observer observe that:

The state ranks 50th in percentage of high school graduates among its populace high school graduation rate, first in amount of carbon emissions, first in hazardous waste produced, last in voter turnout, first in percentage of people without health insurance, and second in percentage of uninsured kids.

...Texas ranks third in the nation for overall birth rate, but it also ranks fourth highest for teenage birth rate.
The specifics are worse. Texas ranks the lowest in the nation for women with health insurance, and is the second lowest in the nation for percent of pregnant women receiving prenatal care in the first trimester. Texas also ranks the fourth highest in the nation for percentage of women living in poverty.

 

[jaeger19]

What I think is so funny about these threads is this.

So called conservatives... who crow about how government should stay out of business/economy... crow about how well the government has run the economy in Texas.

These so called conservatives seem to think that the Texan economy is the result of government policies.. and not the result of oil, ranching, sea ports, or the myriad of other natural resources that Texas has.

The real reality.. is that Texas does well despite its government.

 

[Fenton]

What I think is so funny about these threads is this.

So called conservatives... who crow about how government should stay out of business/economy... crow about how well the government has run the economy in Texas.

These so called conservatives seem to think that the Texan economy is the result of government policies.. and not the result of oil, ranching, sea ports, or the myriad of other natural resources that Texas has.

The real reality.. is that Texas does well despite its government.

Government hasn't run the economy in Texas, its gotten out of the way and allowed the Free market to do what it does best.

Create new jobs..

 

[jaeger19]

Government hasn't run the economy in Texas, its gotten out of the way and allowed the Free market to do what it does best.

Create new jobs..

Bull... oil demand, gas demand, demand for cattle, demand for shipping have created new jobs... Red state or Blue state... doesn't really matter.

I live in a red state and like most red states... just like texas.. we crow about how great red states are... except that for every dollar we send to the federal government... we get almost two dollars back. Without being on the federal government teat..we would go bankrupt..

And as it is... our school system ranks just above Mississippi, we have one of the highest welfare rates, among the most minimum wage workers, and the one of the most uninsured populations in America...

The only difference between us and texas? Texas has oil. a seaport, and a myriad of other natural resources that the other red states don't have.

 

[Fenton]

Bull... oil demand, gas demand, demand for cattle, demand for shipping have created new jobs... Red state or Blue state... doesn't really matter.

I live in a red state and like most red states... just like texas.. we crow about how great red states are... except that for every dollar we send to the federal government... we get almost two dollars back. Without being on the federal government teat..we would go bankrupt..

And as it is... our school system ranks just above Mississippi, we have one of the highest welfare rates, among the most minimum wage workers, and the one of the most uninsured populations in America...

The only difference between us and texas? Texas has oil. a seaport, and a myriad of other natural resources that the other red states don't have.

Oh there's a huge difference between Red States and Blue States.

In Texas, Oil and Gas are only 10 percent of our States GDP.

Texas has a very diverse economy and we've seen growth in all sectors since 2008.

Contrary to what the rest of the Nation thinks, Texas isn't all Oil derricks and long horn cattle.

Millions aren't moving here to work on Oil Rigs or on Cattle farms. Their moving here because Texas's economy is growing because thanks to the very Conservative economic principles that those on the left lament.

Incentivize investment, dont pass silly regulations and destructive tax increases to drive it off. Its pretty simple really.

California has a ton of Natural resources too, and could grow their economy and wipe out their debt if only they took advantage of them.

 

[jaeger19]

Oh there's a huge difference between Red States and Blue States.

In Texas, Oil and Gas are only 10 percent of our States GDP.

Texas has a very diverse economy and we've seen growth in all sectors since 2008.

Contrary to what the rest of the Nation thinks, Texas isn't all Oil derricks and long horn cattle.

Millions aren't moving here to work on Oil Rigs or on Cattle farms. Their moving here because Texas's economy is growing because thanks to the very Conservative economic principles that those on the left lament.

Incentivize investment, dont pass silly regulations and destructive tax increases to drive it off. Its pretty simple really.

California has a ton of Natural resources too, and could grow their economy and wipe out their debt if only they took advantage of them.

Bullcrap Fenton... people are not moving to texas because of "conservative economic principles"..

They are moving there because of jobs created by oil, gas, cattle, seaports, etc.. 10% of GDP is a LOT fenton..and those oil rigs support all sorts of other industries that supply the oil industry from the shipping, the shops that cater to the good paying union jobs, to construction..

If there was such a difference in "conservative" or "red" states versus Blue then explain this...

As it turns out, it is red states that are overwhelmingly the Welfare Queen States. Yes, that's right. Red States — the ones governed by folks who think government is too big and spending needs to be cut — are a net drain on the economy, taking in more federal spending than they pay out in federal taxes. They talk a good game, but stick Blue States with the bill.

Take a look at the difference between federal spending on any given state and the federal taxes received from that state. We measure the difference as a dollar amount: Federal Spending per Dollar of Federal Taxes. A figure of $1.00 means that particular state received as much as it paid in to the federal government. Anything over a dollar means the state received more than it paid; anything less than $1.00 means the state paid more in taxes than it received in services. The higher the figure, the more a given state is a welfare queen.

Of the twenty worst states, 16 are either Republican dominated or conservative states

Read more: Red States Are Welfare Queens - Business Insider

So Fenton.. if so called "conservative" economic principles are so great... why are red states welfare queens.?