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I am not buying anything Tesla says until they a) actually finish the factory and put out the number of batteries they said they would; b) actually sell the new cheaper Tesla at the price they said they would; and c) for the first time in their history, post a profit.
Tesla said they would make money...they NEVER have.
Tesla said many years ago that they would sell a car for $50,000. The closest they came was $70,000.
Their cars are amazing, but too many people believe in Tesla because they want to, not because they should.
Tesla is running out of money. If they do not start making dough eventually, they will go bye bye. They are only still around thanks to market hype that boosted their share price and government low interest loans.
They said when they first launched the Model 3 that it will sell for $35,000 and start being sold at the end of next year.
I will bet you that they will accomplish neither.
Yet there are plenty of skeptics who question whether Tesla will ever be capable of competing with the Toyotas and General Motors of the world -- or get out of the red any time soon. Since its founding in 2003, the company, which went public in 2010, has earned a profit in just one three-month period. In 2014, it lost $294 million on $3.2 billion in revenue.
Some $217 million of that revenue came from the sale to its competitors of zero-emission-vehicle, or ZEV, credits and other pollution allowances.
“You’re talking about a company with no cash flow,” says Matthew Stover, an analyst at Boston-based Susquehanna Financial Group, which in the three months ended on Jan. 31 sold more than half its 1.5 million Tesla shares. “One hundred percent of the value of the shares is associated with some view of the future that has not manifested itself in the past.”
Will Tesla Ever Make Money? - Bloomberg
First, the Model 3. This was Tesla's play for an "affordable" electric car but it appears to be affordable for everyone EXCEPT Tesla.
Tesla loses more than $4,000 on each of its high-end Model S electric sedans; and that model's cost is between $70 and $108k. With margins like that, one has to assume a $35k Model 3 can't be the answer to solving Tesla's red ink.
Tesla's income statement reveals the company is hemorrhaging cash at a robust clip. Furthermore, according to TheStreet Ratings, they have a net profit margin of -26.38 percent and a quick ratio of 0.49, which means they have 49 cents in available cash to pay every $1 of current liabilities.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/03/tesla-stock-is-not-a-buy-no-matter-what-earnings-say-commentary.html
I have to admit that the first thought that came to mind is, 'What? Teslas aren't expensive enough to make a profit?' and this merger is to gain more capital.
Tesla Won’t Turn Profitable Until 2020
Luxury Electric Car Maker Sees GAAP Earnings When Mass-Market Car In Full Production - WSJ
Tesla won't turn profitable until 2020: Musk - MarketWatch
I can only imagine the vast legal expenses and potential law suite judgements that are going to be incurred by the most recent automated driver collisions.
I welcome alternative energy sources and alternative energy transportation, provided that they are self sufficient in the market place all on their own, and don't rely on government, i.e. tax payer, for life support.
I believe Tesla has great margins on their products and could easily be profitable if they wanted to stay small, but they are spending large amounts of money in laying the foundations for future growth. For example they are building out supercharger networks, buying suppliers so they can vertically integrate, building a battery gigafactory, and as this is new technology spending a lot on research and development.
The loan Tesla received from the government was paid back way early and the tax payer made a profit, and the tax incentives for EVs are not why people having been buying Tesla's vehicles ie they have been selling to very affluent customers who could care less about the tax incentives, and these incentives will be running out soon and Tesla won't miss a beat as can be seen with almost 400,000 people in two weeks putting $1000 down for a car 1 to 2 yrs away. .
The cited articles don't support that. How do you support your position? Or is 'I believe' sufficient for you?
MorningStar has a report on Tesla's public filing. I wish I understood it more to know how to read it. That'd be a solid source of what their financials look like.
Hmm. If I were a stock holder, not so sure that I'd be thrilled about a company that could be profitable, but is choosing not to be.
The stock would crash if they weren't in growth mode.
I guess that's right. But may yet. This latest development with the autonomous driving crashes, injuries and deaths surely can't be good news for Tesla.
They are ahead of schedule on the gigafactory with grand opening next month, and Panasonic is expected to be creating the car batteries in November, also ahead of schedule. The Model 3 is also much simpler to manufacture then previous cars. It is smaller, no falcon winged doors, nowhere near all the gadgets. I think it is a mistake to compare the previous models and delays with it. Now they may be a little late on their ambitious goals but I bet if they are it will be more like 6 months late and not two or three years.
You keep making guesses and predictions...I am stating facts.
Fact...except for one three month period, they have NEVER posted a profit...in 13 years!?! And please save the 'they could if they wanted to' talk. If they could post a profit, they already would have. Tesla is TOTALLY dependent on their stock price...that (and the government loans) is the only reason they still exist. And that price would go even higher - much higher - if they posted a profit. Plus, they are going through their cash reserves like crazy. No company CEO in his/her right mind would do that if they did not have to.
Fact...they said seven years ago that they would deliver a car at $50K. They have yet to come close to that.
Fact...(as I stated) the ONLY reasons they still exist is the government loan(s) and the stock price hype. As it is, they sell VERY cool but very expensive cars for the rich/upper middle classes.
Tesla makes great cars...but until they actually deliver a reasonably priced car AND show a profit - to me they are little more then another luxury car maker. I will wager a large sum of money that they will not make their late-2017 start of production date for the new car. And I also bet when/if they do finally sell it...it will cost more then $35K.
You cannot convince me otherwise. I will ONLY believe Tesla will deliver this $35K car AND make a profit when they actually do.
They might. But their track record suggests they won't.
And btw, I love EV's...so I hope they can do it.
From what I've read the technology already is much safer than not having it and is only going to get better. If no one ever got killed by solely human drivers and/or the technology is not really much safer then yeah it may deeply hurt the technology and Tesla. But I think it's pretty obvious it will be MUCH safer than solely human driving and it's coming. Government regulators know this and are preparing for it. Hundreds of companies know it and are investing millions to be players in it.
As far as Tesla as an investment. If you are like say Richard Branson and believe in 15 years most if not all new cars are going to be electric, and that renewables are going to gain higher and higher share of energy, then Tesla is positioned very well to be a leader to this massive transition. If you believe EV's and renewable will never be but a niche market, than Musk throwing out hints that Tesla will be a trillion dollar company in the future is likely not going to happen. I happen to share Branson and Musk's vision. Obviously my posts in this thread about three weeks prior to public knowledge of Musk's master plan part 2 shows I'm drinking the same kool aid.
I do believe technically Tesla sold the base model s after tax credits for $49,900-Forbes Welcome
In regards to profits, you should read the link in post 12 and the following link: Big Companies without Profits - Amazon, Twitter, Uber and Other Big Names that Don?t Make Money | Fox Business
13 years is a baby in the auto manufacturing world, and Tesla, like companies such as Amazon, has chosen the path of growth. It's not rocket science, but Musk is good at that too.
This has nothing to do with my observation that its' going to cost Tesla some serious coin to deal with the law suit both in lawyers fees and final settlement, and that these costs, on top of their precarious cash flow position (as reported in my citations), it's going to hurt them.
As far as automated driving being "MUCH safer than solely human driving", that is yet to be seen. At the moment, it's clearly not, given the track record already established. Perhaps in future versions of the systems. But not right now.
Funny, I don't think I mentioned anything about Kool Aide, so I'm rather surprised that you brought that up. To date, you've yet to post anything substantive to backup your wonderful vision, either about the technologies involved, or Tesla's financial situation, so to put it bluntly, nothing but your unsubstantiated opinion. Rainbows and unicorns. So yeah, you probably are slurping up that Kool Aide.
Realistically, at this point, all that one could, and probably should, say is that it may yet happen, or that it may not happen. We'll have to see how this unfolds.
This has nothing to do with my observation that its' going to cost Tesla some serious coin to deal with the law suit both in lawyers fees and final settlement, and that these costs, on top of their precarious cash flow position (as reported in my citations), it's going to hurt them.
As far as automated driving being "MUCH safer than solely human driving", that is yet to be seen. At the moment, it's clearly not, given the track record already established. Perhaps in future versions of the systems. But not right now.
Funny, I don't think I mentioned anything about Kool Aide, so I'm rather surprised that you brought that up. To date, you've yet to post anything substantive to backup your wonderful vision, either about the technologies involved, or Tesla's financial situation, so to put it bluntly, nothing but your unsubstantiated opinion. Rainbows and unicorns. So yeah, you probably are slurping up that Kool Aide.
Realistically, at this point, all that one could, and probably should, say is that it may yet happen, or that it may not happen. We'll have to see how this unfolds.
I like it. If you believe there is a coming paradigm shift to renewable energy and transportation electricfication then Solar City and Tesla are positioned very well in leading this shift.
Customers will be able to go into Tesla stores and purchase an EV and solar roof/battery system to charge the EV and their home. Easy to see customers buying a $35,000 Model 3 and then being sold on say a $35,000 solar roof/battery system to charge their EV and home. All in one easy no hassle stop.
Now imagine customers having an opportunity to sign up for Tesla software that will enable both partners(customer and Tesla) to sell electricity from their home roof solar/battery system back to the grid as well as using their autonomous driving EV as a driverless Uber like taxi service while they are at work, sleeping, etc. The $70,000 investment by the customer then turns into a business that may pay off the initial investment rather quickly giving them years of free car, free fuel for car and energy for house, and additional income that could be pretty substantial, pretty much a 24/hr a day uber driver without having to actually do anything as the car and software does all the work. How much demand for Tesla products will there be then? Musk envisioning a future trillion dollar market cap for Tesla is not far fetched imo. May be conservative.
Rare metals only exist in tiny quantities and inconvenient places—so you have to move a lot of earth to get just a little bit. In the Jiangxi rare earth mine in China, Abraham writes, workers dig eight-foot holes and pour ammonium sulfate into them to dissolve the sandy clay. Then they haul out bags of muck and pass it through several acid baths; what’s left is baked in a kiln, leaving behind the rare earths required by everything from our phones to our Teslas.
At this mine, those rare earths amounted to 0.2 percent of what gets pulled out of the ground. The other 99.8 percent—now contaminated with toxic chemicals—is dumped back into the environment.
$50K AFTER tax breaks means nothing to me. They did not say the cars would sell for 50K after taxes...they said it would just sell for $50K (to my knowledge).
Tax breaks on cars are STRICTLY to due with the government, nothing to do with the automaker.
You are obviously one of those with rose colored glasses for this company, no offense. LOTS of people are.
I am not one of them.
I will say again...until they post consistent (heck, even relatively consistent) profits AND sell cars (before taxes) at reasonable prices, this company is just a niche car maker that sells very expensive cars that only the wealthy/near-wealthy can realistically afford. And only still exists due to government loans and stock market hype.
You disagree...fine.
We will see.
We are done here, for now.
Good day.
You state "At the moment, it's clearly not, given the track record already established". How can you say it is clearly not just because a few accidents have been reported. Unless you have statistics that show a higher rate of accidents per mile driven with Tesla autonomous tech than without it, you cannot state that it is clearly not safer.
Musk's rainbow and unicorns sure do have the history of becoming reality, landing rockets, etc, etc, etc. I don't think anything I've stated, or that Musk has also stated in his master plan part 2 that he released last night, is based on things that are not substantive. His master plan part 1 for Tesla which he came up with at the founding of the company all became reality. What in his plan part 2 which basically is the vision for the company that I started this thread with is not based on something substantive. For example that future Tesla customers will have the ability to pay for themselves plus some as autonomous Uber style ride sharing. Given ride sharing companies exist now, and there are autonomous cars now even if in the beginning stages of technology, how is it not substantive to see that this will likely be reality. I see nothing as way out there in the vision, nothing that I don't expect to be reality in say a 5 yr or so time frame. My kool aid comment has nothing to do with the vision, it has to do with whether a person thinks EVs are going to dominate the future of the auto industry in the next 15 yrs or so. I think it is a very rational and smart observation but if you don't believe it then comments by Musk that Tesla will be a trillion dollar company will seem like drinking the kool aid.
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