Study indicates COVID-19 antibodies may fade after months

[TU Curmudgeon]

Stop wasting money on a vaccination and we must stay locked down forever - total perpetual quarantine. NO ONE may ever leave their home.

If it were possible to quarantine some of those people from the Internet, that might not be a bad idea.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

You act like it's a matter of people having plenty of money stuffed in their mattresses, and the lock-downs are ruining their planned vacation to the Bahamas, or now they can't get that sunroof sport package on their new Mercedes.

Do you understand that food costs money, clothing costs money, shoes cost money, gasoline costs money, insurance costs money, school books costs money, tuition costs money, pet food costs money, electricity costs money, water costs money, rents, mortgages and property taxes need to be paid, and last time I checked, computers, tablets and internet access to continue schooling from home isn't free either....

Money doesn't fall out of the sky, so unless a family is one of those lucky top 5 percent-ers that are independently wealthy, they must work or they will lose the things I mentioned above... You're also not taking into account the mental health problems on children and on domestic couples resulting from the lock-downs, or the increased domestic violence, drug abuse, and alcohol abuse affiliated with it.

If the lock downs are lifted, yes, a person's chances of getting get Covid are increased, and if they do get it, there's a slight chance that it could kill them.... But not lifting the lock-downs will definitely cause pain, suffering, and hardships for 10's of millions of families, and yes, will result in people dying.

If things are opened up people can choose to hide, or they can work and provide for their families... But if things are closed down, people can't work and can't provide for their families... What do you say to them?

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Based on the data to date, that "slight" chance is around 8% (based on cases where there has been an actual outcome.

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That's roughly 1 in 12. That works out to roughly 1 death in every 3 families or roughly 1 death in every 5 households.

 

[Visbek]

Let's assume that this ends up being true... Now what? With no vaccine, no cure, and it being so highly contagious, what's the plan going to be?

The plan should be what it should have been for a long time.

1) Lock down long enough for the replication rate to fall below 1.

2) Keep that up for a few extra weeks.

3) Put robust testing and contact tracing into effect

4) Gradually and carefully open up, focusing on the things that we believe will be safest (e.g. outdoor meetings; proper indoor ventilation; opening K-6 schools with proper precautions etc) and continuing optimal measures to keep the virus in check (masks, hand washing etc).

5) If virus rates start rising again, then we lock down again, until things are back under control.

6) Maintain the above until there's a vaccine.

This is what is working great in areas like South Korea and New Zealand, and many parts of Europe.

We can't simply shut down and hide forever, so shouldn't we instead just assume that Covid-19 is going to be apart of our lives for the foreseeable future and formulate the best way in which we can reopen?

Yes. See above for how to make that happen.

It is critical to note that throwing open the gates too early won't work. It will send mortality rates through the roof, and cause lots of damage with no benefit to anyone.

 

[Grim17]

Based on the data to date, that "slight" chance is around 8% (based on cases where there has been an actual outcome.


That's roughly 1 in 12. That works out to roughly 1 death in every 3 families or roughly 1 death in every 5 households.

No offense, but anything coming out of china can not be accepted as fact.

Since you brought up death statistics, there are 2 very interesting aspects to Covid that nobody seems to want to take into account. Covid-19 is discriminant in who it kills and who it doesn't kill. Our society, just as probably all societies, put a premium on protecting one particular segment of people, and that's our children. It is not only rare for children to spread Covid, but it's extremely rare for them to die from it. Did you know that more than 5 times as many children died this year from the flu, than from the Covid? I believe there have been 30 children under the age of 15 who have died in the US from Covid-19, compared to 166 who died from the flu.

The other statistic when it comes to Covid that's not being taken into consideration, is that more than 90% of the fatalities have occurred among people 65 and older. That's very significant when it comes to opening up the economy because the overwhelming majority of people over the age of 65 are no longer in the workforce, therefore isolation measures won't have an effect on their financial well being.

Since Covid poses very little threat to our children, and we know that more than 90% of the fatalities are from people 65 and older, I see no reason in the world why we can't open up the economy, reopen our schools (with precautions put into place) and allow people to go back to work so they can provide for themselves and their families, and focus our efforts on protecting the ones most threatened by the virus, the elderly. Keep in mind, reopening does not prevent anyone who feels threatened by the virus from self isolating if they feel it's necessary.

I think that's a reasonable, practical approach to the problem because it allows each individual the opportunity to decide what the best course of action is for themselves and their families, while focusing efforts on protecting those most vulnerable to the virus.
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[Metric Mouse]

It is one solution. I've been locked down since mid-March.

Be sure to thank essential workers who have no such luxury.

 

[Lursa]

No offense, but anything coming out of china can not be accepted as fact.

Since you brought up death statistics, there are 2 very interesting aspects to Covid that nobody seems to want to take into account. Covid-19 is discriminant in who it kills and who it doesn't kill. Our society, just as probably all societies, put a premium on protecting one particular segment of people, and that's our children. It is not only rare for children to spread Covid, but it's extremely rare for them to die from it. Did you know that more than 5 times as many children died this year from the flu, than from the Covid? I believe there have been 30 children under the age of 15 who have died in the US from Covid-19, compared to 166 who died from the flu.

The other statistic when it comes to Covid that's not being taken into consideration, is that more than 90% of the fatalities have occurred among people 65 and older. That's very significant when it comes to opening up the economy because the overwhelming majority of people over the age of 65 are no longer in the workforce, therefore isolation measures won't have an effect on their financial well being.

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It's not rare for kids to spread CV19...kids are little germ spreaders in general. It's rare that they get sick from it.

But they are huge germ factories that can bring CV19 home to elderly or at-risk family members. Or all throughout people in stores. They give it to their parents who spread it at work.

The schools will become super-spreaders. And at that point, the # of kids that get sick will also rise.

This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa

 

[avatar]

No offense, but anything coming out of china can not be accepted as fact.

Since you brought up death statistics, there are 2 very interesting aspects to Covid that nobody seems to want to take into account. Covid-19 is discriminant in who it kills and who it doesn't kill. Our society, just as probably all societies, put a premium on protecting one particular segment of people, and that's our children. It is not only rare for children to spread Covid, but it's extremely rare for them to die from it. Did you know that more than 5 times as many children died this year from the flu, than from the Covid? I believe there have been 30 children under the age of 15 who have died in the US from Covid-19, compared to 166 who died from the flu.

The other statistic when it comes to Covid that's not being taken into consideration, is that more than 90% of the fatalities have occurred among people 65 and older. That's very significant when it comes to opening up the economy because the overwhelming majority of people over the age of 65 are no longer in the workforce, therefore isolation measures won't have an effect on their financial well being.

Since Covid poses very little threat to our children, and we know that more than 90% of the fatalities are from people 65 and older, I see no reason in the world why we can't open up the economy, reopen our schools (with precautions put into place) and allow people to go back to work so they can provide for themselves and their families, and focus our efforts on protecting the ones most threatened by the virus, the elderly. Keep in mind, reopening does not prevent anyone who feels threatened by the virus from self isolating if they feel it's necessary.

I think that's a reasonable, practical approach to the problem because it allows each individual the opportunity to decide what the best course of action is for themselves and their families, while focusing efforts on protecting those most vulnerable to the virus.
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So long as masks are required and social distancing is followed this might work. On the other hand since the demographics are changing to lower aged deaths now that the nursing home situation is better it might not work.

 

[Metric Mouse]

a lot of scientists are working on this. wear PPE, and we'll get there.

We're wasting time talking about herd immunity (opinion) - CNN

I wish that science backed up your optimism. We could all use some good news right now.

 

[VanceMack]

As well as suffering the sickness themselves, the sickness of their loved ones, and the deaths of their loved ones.

Which do you think those millions would choose: lockdown and financial suffering...or the pain and suffering and even death for themselves and loved ones?

But the answer is always the same. Yes...go into lockdown forever. And ever. As long as it takes. Months. YEARS. Whatever......

Do you think people would still feel that way when the government says "sorry...we've got no more resources to give. The economy has been shutdown so long there just is nothing left."? No more handouts. More jobs lost because there are no consumers. And what do you do with the skyrocketing numbers of people dealing with mental health issues, even suicide due to the social isolation?

And as to what those people would 'say', well, considering the fact that they demand lockdowns for everyone except those protesting and rioting, what they would say probably varies greatly based on their politics. Which speaks volumes of the whole national response to this. It IS political.

 

[Lursa]

But the answer is always the same. Yes...go into lockdown forever. And ever. As long as it takes. Months. YEARS. Whatever......

Please source the bold from any medical expert recommending a course of action or a govt agency doing so.

This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa

 

[VanceMack]

Please source the bold from any medical expert recommending a course of action or a govt agency doing so.

I believe we are having a discussion on the opinions of people on this site and leftists in general.

What do you advocate for if the virus stays with us and just keeps mutating? How long are you going to live your life in a bubble?

(its OK...we both know this **** magically ends after the November election)

 

[Simon W. Moon]

I believe we are having a discussion on the opinions of people on this site and leftists in general.
What do you advocate for if the virus stays with us and just keeps mutating? How long are you going to live your life in a bubble?
(its OK...we both know this **** magically ends after the November election)

Some of the other corona viruses don't need to mutate to keep infecting.
Our immunity fades.

Pretty sure the suggestions have been posted over and over again.
Forgetfulness trikes the readers.

The longer we dilly-dally w/ half measures, the longer it will take before we can get things under control.
The price for not getting things under control is economic devastation.

We can't "just live with it" w/o becoming international pariahs.
The costs of trading with us will increase.
Travel to and from the US will remain reestricted.
New businesses will choose to locate elsewhere or relocate elsewhere.

Giving up is not actually one of our options

 

[Simon W. Moon]

(its OK...we both know this **** magically ends after the November election)

How will you know if your prediction comes true?
What does this mean EXACTLY?

Will daily new cases drop down under some specific number in December?
Or will it be daily deaths which drop under some number?
Or what exactly will indicate that "this **** magically end[ed] after the November election"?


How will we be able to see how right you are?

[And, if it doesn't come true, which premises and sources should you re-evaluate?]


Personally, I think your claim is utter bull**** right alongside Trump's claims that covid would go away magically and be gone by Easter.
...desperate lies and utter bull**** to be specific.

You would really stick it to me if you were able to set up exact and specific criteria you could use to prove me wrong and rub it in my face come November or December (or whenever you say).

 

[Rosie1]

The question is how long will vaccine last, when we have it? We won't know that for a while. I do not expect it to last too long. With flu shots (for example) we have to reapply them annually.

 

[jaeger19]

This seems contrary to my layman’s understanding of how a virus behaves. Are there other examples of immunities that fade after a few months?

Yes. Most immunities from flu vaccines fade after a few months. (its not just that types of influenzas change)..

Many other immunities also fade. Thats why you need boosters for Mumps Measles and Rubella.. etc.

So someone asked "well what do we do if a vaccine only lasts three months".

Well.. for a virus to propagate.. its needs hosts that it can infect. SO.. lets say a vaccine that lasts 3 months comes out.. and everyone goes out and gets the vaccine. Thats three months where there is no hosts for the virus to continue. Then for the next year.. everyone gets vaccinated at the three month mark. 4 vaccines in a year. Thats a year of the vast majority of the population (assuming a few are immunosuppressed) that can;t catch the virus. Basically the virus dies or dies to the point where the ability to be an epidemic is vastly limited. .

Whenever there is a suspected outbreak occuring.. bang.. "everyone back to the vaccine".. and another round of 4 vaccines a year.

Not really so big a deal. Compared to going through having months with ICUs past capacity and having to decide who gets the ventilator today..

 

[jaeger19]

But the answer is always the same. Yes...go into lockdown forever. And ever. As long as it takes. Months. YEARS. Whatever......

Do you think people would still feel that way when the government says "sorry...we've got no more resources to give. The economy has been shutdown so long there just is nothing left."? No more handouts. More jobs lost because there are no consumers. And what do you do with the skyrocketing numbers of people dealing with mental health issues, even suicide due to the social isolation?

And as to what those people would 'say', well, considering the fact that they demand lockdowns for everyone except those protesting and rioting, what they would say probably varies greatly based on their politics. Which speaks volumes of the whole national response to this. It IS political.

Um no..its not.

If the vaccine lasts three months.. you get vaccinated four times a year. A year or so of people doing that..and there is no one for the virus to infect.. the virus dies off to the point where you don;t have to vaccinate every year unless there is a resurgence.

Not that hard.

 

[RealityNow]

This is going to make the concept of herd immunity stand on much shakier ground; especially if this study gets peer reviewed and other studies conclude the same thing. If these findings are indeed accurate, then we'll need a way to treat people so we don't end up with high hospitalization rates. The other area of concern is the lasting impacts some people have experienced after getting the disease.

Sweden tried Herd Immunity and found out... its not working!!!

Sweden’s public health authority says despite the absence of a full lockdown, immunity to Covid-19 is far from levels that could halt its destructive powers.

Far greater numbers of Swedes have tested positive to Covid-19 than elsewhere in the Nordic region. But Sweden remains a long way off achieving so-called herd immunity, according to the latest data.

Sweden Says It’s Far From Achieving Covid-19 Herd Immunity
Karin Tegmark Wisell Source: Lena Katarina Johansson/Public Health Agency of Sweden
“We know that large parts of the population are unprotected, as they haven’t been infected,” Karin Tegmark Wisell, head of the Public Health Agency’s microbiology department, said on Tuesday. That means there remains a “large susceptibility in the population,”


The concept of herd immunity is a controversial one, and Swedish public health experts have consistently denied that achieving it was ever a stated goal. At the same time, Sweden’s decision to keep much of its society open throughout the pandemic has coincided with a considerably higher mortality rate than in many other countries.

 

[Lursa]

I believe we are having a discussion on the opinions of people on this site and leftists in general.

What do you advocate for if the virus stays with us and just keeps mutating? How long are you going to live your life in a bubble?

(its OK...we both know this **** magically ends after the November election)

I have seen no one on this site advocate for staying in lockdown forever either.

Your hyperbole plainly limits your ability to accept anything that would be counter to it.

The solutions arent simple...and you've just shown it's not worth the time to write it all out. It actually seems you expect some simple canned solution :roll:

This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa

 

[Lursa]

The question is how long will vaccine last, when we have it? We won't know that for a while. I do not expect it to last too long. With flu shots (for example) we have to reapply them annually.

The best thing to hope for IMO is understanding how the virus attacks people's various systems, the many different ways, and then developing effective supporting treatment to care for people when they do get it.

This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa

 

[Simon W. Moon]

This seems contrary to my layman’s understanding of how a virus behaves. Are there other examples of immunities that fade after a few months?

This guy lists four of them from the coronavirus family and includes a link to a paper about onf of them in particular

We're wasting time talking about herd immunity (opinion) - CNN

While SARS and MERS are the coronaviruses that grab the headlines, there are four other mostly unknown coronaviruses that are much more common: 229E, HKU1, NL63 and OC43. What we know from 60 years of research into these viruses is that they come back year after year and reinfect the same people -- over and over again.​

 

[Grim17]

It's not rare for kids to spread CV19...kids are little germ spreaders in general. It's rare that they get sick from it.

But they are huge germ factories that can bring CV19 home to elderly or at-risk family members. Or all throughout people in stores. They give it to their parents who spread it at work.

The schools will become super-spreaders. And at that point, the # of kids that get sick will also rise.

Last week, CDC Director Robert Redfield said that unlike influenza, "we really don't have evidence that children are driving the transmission cycle"

Also last week, former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb wrote that the "data clearly shows [children are] less likely to become infected and less likely to transmit infection."

Those seems to contradict your opinion.


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[Simon W. Moon]

Um no..its not.
If the vaccine lasts three months.. you get vaccinated four times a year. A year or so of people doing that..and there is no one for the virus to infect.. the virus dies off to the point where you don;t have to vaccinate every year unless there is a resurgence.
Not that hard.

We fight against the flu season, which lasts about 8 months.



Ask the Experts about Influenza Vaccines - CDC experts answer Q&As.

[TABLE="width: 100%"]
[TR]
[TD]How long does immunity from influenza vaccine last?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Protection from influenza vaccine is thought to persist for at least 6 months. Protection declines over time because of waning antibody levels and because of changes in circulating influenza viruses from year to year. For persons who require only 1 dose of influenza vaccine for the season, yearly vaccination (i.e. in July and August) is likely to be associated with suboptimal immunity before the end of the influenza season, particularly among older adults.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Simon W. Moon]

Last week, CDC Director Robert Redfield said that unlike influenza, "we really don't have evidence that children are driving the transmission cycle"

Also last week, former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb wrote that the "data clearly shows [children are] less likely to become infected and less likely to transmit infection."

Those seems to contradict your opinion.


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nice links

 

[jaeger19]

Last week, CDC Director Robert Redfield said that unlike influenza, "we really don't have evidence that children are driving the transmission cycle"

Also last week, former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb wrote that the "data clearly shows [children are] less likely to become infected and less likely to transmit infection."

Those seems to contradict your opinion.


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Actually no. It doesn;t contradict her opinion. \

Schools were closed back in april and march before the epidemic got into full swing. So who has been out and about more? Adults going to work, shopping etc. the reason that it may not appear that kids are that infectious or spread it as much is because their activity has been limited.. while adult activity has not been as limited. We can see on a limited basis what might occur when schools are opened up by looking at summer camps.

Missouri is one of several states to report outbreaks at summer camps. The Kanakuk camp in Lampe, Missouri, ended up sending its teenage campers home. On July 3, the local health department announced 49 positive cases of the COVID-19 virus at the camp. By Monday, the number had jumped to 82.

82 infected at Missouri summer camp as COVID-19 cases surge across US

 

[Grim17]

It's not rare for kids to spread CV19...kids are little germ spreaders in general. It's rare that they get sick from it.

But they are huge germ factories that can bring CV19 home to elderly or at-risk family members. Or all throughout people in stores. They give it to their parents who spread it at work.

The schools will become super-spreaders. And at that point, the # of kids that get sick will also rise.

I forgot to add this:

German study finds low Covid-19 infection rate in schools
Tests of pupils and teachers in Saxony suggest children may act as brake on infection
Mon 13 Jul 2020 15.31

excerpt

The largest study conducted in Germany on schoolchildren and teachers included testing in schools where there were coronavirus outbreaks.

Of the almost 2,000 samples, only 12 had antibodies, said Reinhard Berner , a professor of paediatrics at the hospital, adding that the first results gave no evidence that schoolchildren played a role in spreading the virus particularly quickly.

“Children may even act as a brake on infection,” Berner told a news conference, saying infections in schools had not led to an outbreak, while the spread of the virus within households was also less dynamic than previously thought.

German study finds low Covid-19 infection rate in schools | Germany | The Guardian

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