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Ukraine was a construct of russia and the soviet union, the term ukrainian had often been used to describe the south west russias as well as the language, but for most of history the russian controlled areas were just russia and the polish controlled areas just part of poland. What we see today was from the historic divide as what is now western ukraine had not for very long historically been russian territory, while eastern ukraine had spent a long time as part of russia.I was wondering, is there a scenario under which this war might resolve with a repeat of post-WW2 Germany, namely Ukraine split into an independent and NATO-friendly West Ukraine and a separate East Ukraine deeply within Russia's sphere of influence, if not a Russian vassal state?
I don't see Ukraine winning this thing outright.
I don't see Russia being shamed back into their place and giving up any gains they've made through a humiliating defeat, not as long as China has their back.
I DO see NATO eventually adopting Russian logic e.g. "if you want Ukraine as a buffer against me, well I want Ukraine as a buffer against you" and I could see Ukrainian leadership eventually opting to support that, if the alternative is annihilation.
So, I find myself wondering whether the end result of this might be Ukraine being split in half. Thoughts? Does this make any kind of sense? Or feel free to shoot bullet holes (Ukrainian, Russian, NATO or otherwise) all over this hypothesis, because it's probably a dumb one.
But if someone asked me to bet a dollar how this all plays out, this would be my guess, and the longer this conflict drags out, the more likely I would say it becomes.
I don't know about expanding, though I think all the sanctions everyone is imposing should remain in place until Crimea is returned to the nation where it belongs. Still, there is no denying that twenty days into the war, Russia is in serious trouble:Actually if Russia loses as badly as it appears then Ukraine could expand up to the Don and Volga rivers.
I agree. My reply was hyperbole to suggest that Russia must not expect to keep any gains including Crimea..I don't know about expanding, though I think all the sanctions everyone is imposing should remain in place until Crimea is returned to the nation where it belongs. Still, there is no denying that twenty days into the war, Russia is in serious trouble:
I was wondering, is there a scenario under which this war might resolve with a repeat of post-WW2 Germany, namely Ukraine split into an independent and NATO-friendly West Ukraine and a separate East Ukraine deeply within Russia's sphere of influence, if not a Russian vassal state?
I don't see Ukraine winning this thing outright.
I don't see Russia being shamed back into their place and giving up any gains they've made through a humiliating defeat, not as long as China has their back.
I DO see NATO eventually adopting Russian logic e.g. "if you want Ukraine as a buffer against me, well I want Ukraine as a buffer against you" and I could see Ukrainian leadership eventually opting to support that, if the alternative is annihilation.
So, I find myself wondering whether the end result of this might be Ukraine being split in half. Thoughts? Does this make any kind of sense? Or feel free to shoot bullet holes (Ukrainian, Russian, NATO or otherwise) all over this hypothesis, because it's probably a dumb one.
But if someone asked me to bet a dollar how this all plays out, this would be my guess, and the longer this conflict drags out, the more likely I would say it becomes.
LOLActually if Russia loses as badly as it appears then Ukraine could expand up to the Don and Volga rivers.
I was wondering, is there a scenario under which this war might resolve with a repeat of post-WW2 Germany, namely Ukraine split into an independent and NATO-friendly West Ukraine and a separate East Ukraine deeply within Russia's sphere of influence, if not a Russian vassal state?
I don't see Ukraine winning this thing outright.
I don't see Russia being shamed back into their place and giving up any gains they've made through a humiliating defeat, not as long as China has their back.
I DO see NATO eventually adopting Russian logic e.g. "if you want Ukraine as a buffer against me, well I want Ukraine as a buffer against you" and I could see Ukrainian leadership eventually opting to support that, if the alternative is annihilation.
So, I find myself wondering whether the end result of this might be Ukraine being split in half. Thoughts? Does this make any kind of sense? Or feel free to shoot bullet holes (Ukrainian, Russian, NATO or otherwise) all over this hypothesis, because it's probably a dumb one.
But if someone asked me to bet a dollar how this all plays out, this would be my guess, and the longer this conflict drags out, the more likely I would say it becomes.
Actually if Russia loses as badly as it appears then Ukraine could expand up to the Don and Volga rivers.
I have a better idea. How about we split Russia into in 48 states, appoint local military governors, and execute all the war criminals...Putin being first on the list.
That's called appeasement. It doesn't work. The world tried this tactic in the 1930's with Hitler, didn't work. It will not work with Putin because he has a plan to rebuild the USSR. Besides, you don't tear a nation in half to make a brutal thug happy. Weakness breeds aggression!I was wondering, is there a scenario under which this war might resolve with a repeat of post-WW2 Germany, namely Ukraine split into an independent and NATO-friendly West Ukraine and a separate East Ukraine deeply within Russia's sphere of influence, if not a Russian vassal state?
I don't see Ukraine winning this thing outright.
I don't see Russia being shamed back into their place and giving up any gains they've made through a humiliating defeat, not as long as China has their back.
I DO see NATO eventually adopting Russian logic e.g. "if you want Ukraine as a buffer against me, well I want Ukraine as a buffer against you" and I could see Ukrainian leadership eventually opting to support that, if the alternative is annihilation.
So, I find myself wondering whether the end result of this might be Ukraine being split in half. Thoughts? Does this make any kind of sense? Or feel free to shoot bullet holes (Ukrainian, Russian, NATO or otherwise) all over this hypothesis, because it's probably a dumb one.
But if someone asked me to bet a dollar how this all plays out, this would be my guess, and the longer this conflict drags out, the more likely I would say it becomes.
Actually if Russia loses as badly as it appears then Ukraine could expand up to the Don and Volga rivers.
I was wondering, is there a scenario under which this war might resolve with a repeat of post-WW2 Germany, namely Ukraine split into an independent and NATO-friendly West Ukraine and a separate East Ukraine deeply within Russia's sphere of influence, if not a Russian vassal state?
I don't see Ukraine winning this thing outright.
I don't see Russia being shamed back into their place and giving up any gains they've made through a humiliating defeat, not as long as China has their back.
I DO see NATO eventually adopting Russian logic e.g. "if you want Ukraine as a buffer against me, well I want Ukraine as a buffer against you" and I could see Ukrainian leadership eventually opting to support that, if the alternative is annihilation.
So, I find myself wondering whether the end result of this might be Ukraine being split in half. Thoughts? Does this make any kind of sense? Or feel free to shoot bullet holes (Ukrainian, Russian, NATO or otherwise) all over this hypothesis, because it's probably a dumb one.
But if someone asked me to bet a dollar how this all plays out, this would be my guess, and the longer this conflict drags out, the more likely I would say it becomes.
But Russia's offense is exhausted and Ukraine's defense is getting stronger. Zelenskyy is turning into a good quarterback. May go into overtime. Let's hope Russia does not try an Hail Mary.But Ukraine would have to run up the scores. At moment Ukraine is like down 3 touchdowns and Russia still has possession
But Russia's offense is exhausted and Ukraine's defense is getting stronger. Zelenskyy is turning into a good quarterback.
Yes, but currently the West supports appeasement. After all, the alternative is direct engagement and it's clear that will not happen. So, either one side "loses" which I don't see happening, or both sides escalate this to a direct conflict which I don't see happening, or Ukraine becomes one large munitions testing site for the next few decades aka like Afghanistan, which would be horrible. The only remaining option is a NATO West Ukraine and Russian East Ukraine.That's called appeasement. It doesn't work. The world tried this tactic in the 1930's with Hitler, didn't work. It will not work with Putin because he has a plan to rebuild the USSR. Besides, you don't tear a nation in half to make a brutal thug happy. Weakness breeds aggression!
The 8 year war with Russia will continue until Ukraine is again whole.
Partisan warfare will endure for 5 years, 20 years, or fill-in the blank. They will not accept a forced partition. No nation would.
Forced partitions happen all the time. They're ugly, painful and don't last, and no one likes or opts for them, but they happen. East and West Germany. India and Pakistan. The list goes on. This to my admittedly uninformed eye has the makings of a partitioning leading to a fixed NATO-Russia border and some plump construction contracts to build a bunch of walls.Partisan warfare will endure for 5 years, 20 years, or fill-in the blank. They will not accept a forced partition. No nation would.
Yes, but currently the West supports appeasement.
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