Split Ukraine into Two Nation-States?

[phoenix2020]

I was wondering, is there a scenario under which this war might resolve with a repeat of post-WW2 Germany, namely Ukraine split into an independent and NATO-friendly West Ukraine and a separate East Ukraine deeply within Russia's sphere of influence, if not a Russian vassal state?

I don't see Ukraine winning this thing outright.

I don't see Russia being shamed back into their place and giving up any gains they've made through a humiliating defeat, not as long as China has their back.

I DO see NATO eventually adopting Russian logic e.g. "if you want Ukraine as a buffer against me, well I want Ukraine as a buffer against you" and I could see Ukrainian leadership eventually opting to support that, if the alternative is annihilation.

So, I find myself wondering whether the end result of this might be Ukraine being split in half. Thoughts? Does this make any kind of sense? Or feel free to shoot bullet holes (Ukrainian, Russian, NATO or otherwise) all over this hypothesis, because it's probably a dumb one.

But if someone asked me to bet a dollar how this all plays out, this would be my guess, and the longer this conflict drags out, the more likely I would say it becomes.

 

[Jredbaron96]

Ukraine being split into Russian controlled and independent NATO-leaning partitions might very well be a reality, but if it does it's hard to see it as a real win for Russia.

A surviving, independent Ukraine will be considerably hostile to Russia even if any agreement to swear off NATO membership happens. Ukraine will still be a continual thorn in Russia's sides and necessitate continued attention to focus.

 

[Doug64]

As a practical outcome resulting from Putin choosing to declare victory and call it a day? Certainly possible, at least temporarily. But long-term? Not a chance. One estimate I've seen for the size of the force needed to occupy Ukraine to just west of the Dnieper River and north of Odessa at 168,000 permanent troops and another 168,000 in constant rotation, for a total of 336,000 troops. "That constitutes over 95% of the entire Russian Ground Force of approximately 350,000 personnel, not including available Russian airborne, special operations, or National Guard troops." That is not sustainable over the long haul, the Russian military would have to be extensively expanded--and where do they get the money for that, with ongoing sanctions imposed by a huge chunk of the wealthiest nations of the world? And it would be as much of a constantly bleeding wound as Vietnam was for us, also with a conscript army. I can't think of anything that would erode Putin's popular support in Russia itself. I suspect it wouldn't take long before a military coup overthrew Putin just to end the ongoing catastrophe.

 

[ChickenTendies]

More likely, they'll just settle on official recognition on Donetsk and Luhansk as well formally giving up Crimea, on top of accepting neutrality status.

 

[craig]

Actually if Russia loses as badly as it appears then Ukraine could expand up to the Don and Volga rivers.

 

[beerftw]

I was wondering, is there a scenario under which this war might resolve with a repeat of post-WW2 Germany, namely Ukraine split into an independent and NATO-friendly West Ukraine and a separate East Ukraine deeply within Russia's sphere of influence, if not a Russian vassal state?

I don't see Ukraine winning this thing outright.

I don't see Russia being shamed back into their place and giving up any gains they've made through a humiliating defeat, not as long as China has their back.

I DO see NATO eventually adopting Russian logic e.g. "if you want Ukraine as a buffer against me, well I want Ukraine as a buffer against you" and I could see Ukrainian leadership eventually opting to support that, if the alternative is annihilation.

So, I find myself wondering whether the end result of this might be Ukraine being split in half. Thoughts? Does this make any kind of sense? Or feel free to shoot bullet holes (Ukrainian, Russian, NATO or otherwise) all over this hypothesis, because it's probably a dumb one.

But if someone asked me to bet a dollar how this all plays out, this would be my guess, and the longer this conflict drags out, the more likely I would say it becomes.

Ukraine was a construct of russia and the soviet union, the term ukrainian had often been used to describe the south west russias as well as the language, but for most of history the russian controlled areas were just russia and the polish controlled areas just part of poland. What we see today was from the historic divide as what is now western ukraine had not for very long historically been russian territory, while eastern ukraine had spent a long time as part of russia.

Much of what we see is from ww1 and ww2 borders, prior to that ukraine had floated between empires, which shows in their culture on why entire regions do not get along or agree with eachother.

Going to a 2 state ukraine might end the war, however from the russian perspective it would still require neutrality and disarmament of the western half, their goal is not just some wish to unite slavic kingdoms, russia wants ukraine either on their side or neutral, as ukraine is the weak spot to directly invade russia, and russia will not let ukraine or it's other weakspot belarus go into the hands of what they deem their enemy.

 

[Doug64]

Actually if Russia loses as badly as it appears then Ukraine could expand up to the Don and Volga rivers.

I don't know about expanding, though I think all the sanctions everyone is imposing should remain in place until Crimea is returned to the nation where it belongs. Still, there is no denying that twenty days into the war, Russia is in serious trouble:

 

[craig]

I don't know about expanding, though I think all the sanctions everyone is imposing should remain in place until Crimea is returned to the nation where it belongs. Still, there is no denying that twenty days into the war, Russia is in serious trouble:

I agree. My reply was hyperbole to suggest that Russia must not expect to keep any gains including Crimea..

 

[maxparrish]

I was wondering, is there a scenario under which this war might resolve with a repeat of post-WW2 Germany, namely Ukraine split into an independent and NATO-friendly West Ukraine and a separate East Ukraine deeply within Russia's sphere of influence, if not a Russian vassal state?

I don't see Ukraine winning this thing outright.

I don't see Russia being shamed back into their place and giving up any gains they've made through a humiliating defeat, not as long as China has their back.

I DO see NATO eventually adopting Russian logic e.g. "if you want Ukraine as a buffer against me, well I want Ukraine as a buffer against you" and I could see Ukrainian leadership eventually opting to support that, if the alternative is annihilation.

So, I find myself wondering whether the end result of this might be Ukraine being split in half. Thoughts? Does this make any kind of sense? Or feel free to shoot bullet holes (Ukrainian, Russian, NATO or otherwise) all over this hypothesis, because it's probably a dumb one.

But if someone asked me to bet a dollar how this all plays out, this would be my guess, and the longer this conflict drags out, the more likely I would say it becomes.

I have a better idea. How about we split Russia into in 48 states, appoint local military governors, and execute all the war criminals...Putin being first on the list.

 

[ChickenTendies]

Actually if Russia loses as badly as it appears then Ukraine could expand up to the Don and Volga rivers.

LOL

 

[spud_meister]

That's Putin's plan B, achieve a buffer state between Russia and NATO aggression.

 

[joluoto]

Putin's plan is to swallow all of Ukraine, and divide it into a myriad of "independent" republics.

 

[rickc]

We can't Allow Russia to make any gains from their invasion of Ukraine. If we do then where do we stop him?

Can't encourage a power mad dictator with nuclear weapons.

Crush the Russian economy and he can't finance further Aggression. Flood Ukraine with weapons and stop the putin war machine there.

 

[oneworld2]

I was wondering, is there a scenario under which this war might resolve with a repeat of post-WW2 Germany, namely Ukraine split into an independent and NATO-friendly West Ukraine and a separate East Ukraine deeply within Russia's sphere of influence, if not a Russian vassal state?

I don't see Ukraine winning this thing outright.

I don't see Russia being shamed back into their place and giving up any gains they've made through a humiliating defeat, not as long as China has their back.

I DO see NATO eventually adopting Russian logic e.g. "if you want Ukraine as a buffer against me, well I want Ukraine as a buffer against you" and I could see Ukrainian leadership eventually opting to support that, if the alternative is annihilation.

So, I find myself wondering whether the end result of this might be Ukraine being split in half. Thoughts? Does this make any kind of sense? Or feel free to shoot bullet holes (Ukrainian, Russian, NATO or otherwise) all over this hypothesis, because it's probably a dumb one.

But if someone asked me to bet a dollar how this all plays out, this would be my guess, and the longer this conflict drags out, the more likely I would say it becomes.

This whole situation was predicted by William Burn in 2008 . Others also warned of the dangers but the money grubbers won the battle imo

I think the only realistic solution and one most based in the law was Minsk2 which was supported by the USA ( now forgotten), the Europeans powers of France/Germany, the UNSC, the Ukrainian govt and Russia, along with the OSCE

Ukraine has to be taken off the NATO members club list and a neutral status bestowed upon it

The Crimea has gone and isn't coming back short of a catastrophic NATO Russia conflict, with China also a possibility.

Western and Eastern Ukraine were far apart but maybe unified more by the Russian attack. A split is possible

The splitting of th country might still be viable but even if that was the case, Western Ukraine would still not be allowed to join NATO as that was and remains the issue that was warmed about all of those years ago.

MINSK 2 was the best of bad options and that's why it was so well supported. The horrific and needless loss of life in Ukraine could have and should have been avoided but the far right radicals Putin cited made sure Zelensky was never going to follow through on MINSK 2

And we are here now with the likely result that, a disasterous escalation aside, that will be the probable outcome anyhow with just many lives being wasted for little or no significant change

 

[Tigerace117]

Actually if Russia loses as badly as it appears then Ukraine could expand up to the Don and Volga rivers.

😂

Please tell me this isn’t a serious idea. No, Ukraine is not going to annex Russian territory, especially since Russia is still advancing in Ukraine itself.

And nukes would fly before Putin would accept the loss of land which is undisputedly Russian.

It’s not 1800 anymore man.

 

[Tigerace117]

I have a better idea. How about we split Russia into in 48 states, appoint local military governors, and execute all the war criminals...Putin being first on the list.

There’s a couple thousand things called “nuclear weapons” which make that an idiotic proposal.

 

[Integrityrespec]

I was wondering, is there a scenario under which this war might resolve with a repeat of post-WW2 Germany, namely Ukraine split into an independent and NATO-friendly West Ukraine and a separate East Ukraine deeply within Russia's sphere of influence, if not a Russian vassal state?

I don't see Ukraine winning this thing outright.

I don't see Russia being shamed back into their place and giving up any gains they've made through a humiliating defeat, not as long as China has their back.

I DO see NATO eventually adopting Russian logic e.g. "if you want Ukraine as a buffer against me, well I want Ukraine as a buffer against you" and I could see Ukrainian leadership eventually opting to support that, if the alternative is annihilation.

So, I find myself wondering whether the end result of this might be Ukraine being split in half. Thoughts? Does this make any kind of sense? Or feel free to shoot bullet holes (Ukrainian, Russian, NATO or otherwise) all over this hypothesis, because it's probably a dumb one.

But if someone asked me to bet a dollar how this all plays out, this would be my guess, and the longer this conflict drags out, the more likely I would say it becomes.

That's called appeasement. It doesn't work. The world tried this tactic in the 1930's with Hitler, didn't work. It will not work with Putin because he has a plan to rebuild the USSR. Besides, you don't tear a nation in half to make a brutal thug happy. Weakness breeds aggression!

 

[Juin]

Actually if Russia loses as badly as it appears then Ukraine could expand up to the Don and Volga rivers.

In which case it will be a question of splitting up Russia into a Ukraine dominated west up to the Urals, and a China friendly Russia from the Urals eastwards.

But Ukraine would have to run up the scores. At moment Ukraine is like down 3 touchdowns and Russia still has possession

I was wondering, is there a scenario under which this war might resolve with a repeat of post-WW2 Germany, namely Ukraine split into an independent and NATO-friendly West Ukraine and a separate East Ukraine deeply within Russia's sphere of influence, if not a Russian vassal state?

I don't see Ukraine winning this thing outright.

I don't see Russia being shamed back into their place and giving up any gains they've made through a humiliating defeat, not as long as China has their back.

I DO see NATO eventually adopting Russian logic e.g. "if you want Ukraine as a buffer against me, well I want Ukraine as a buffer against you" and I could see Ukrainian leadership eventually opting to support that, if the alternative is annihilation.

So, I find myself wondering whether the end result of this might be Ukraine being split in half. Thoughts? Does this make any kind of sense? Or feel free to shoot bullet holes (Ukrainian, Russian, NATO or otherwise) all over this hypothesis, because it's probably a dumb one.

But if someone asked me to bet a dollar how this all plays out, this would be my guess, and the longer this conflict drags out, the more likely I would say it becomes.

I believe a final settlement will be along those lines

 

[craig]

But Ukraine would have to run up the scores. At moment Ukraine is like down 3 touchdowns and Russia still has possession

But Russia's offense is exhausted and Ukraine's defense is getting stronger. Zelenskyy is turning into a good quarterback. May go into overtime. Let's hope Russia does not try an Hail Mary.

 

[Juin]

But Russia's offense is exhausted and Ukraine's defense is getting stronger. Zelenskyy is turning into a good quarterback.

It very well may be so. But I am uncertain as to the actual situation. My take is that Team Zelensky is performing above expectations. And Team Putin has been poor in execution. I am not so sure about the exhaustion part. I will prefer to give it a few more weeks to see if the bear is simply fumbling the first rounds or is truly exhausted

 

[Rogue Valley]

The 8 year war with Russia will continue until Ukraine is again whole.

Partisan warfare will endure for 5 years, 20 years, or fill-in the blank. They will not accept a forced partition. No nation would.

 

[phoenix2020]

That's called appeasement. It doesn't work. The world tried this tactic in the 1930's with Hitler, didn't work. It will not work with Putin because he has a plan to rebuild the USSR. Besides, you don't tear a nation in half to make a brutal thug happy. Weakness breeds aggression!

Yes, but currently the West supports appeasement. After all, the alternative is direct engagement and it's clear that will not happen. So, either one side "loses" which I don't see happening, or both sides escalate this to a direct conflict which I don't see happening, or Ukraine becomes one large munitions testing site for the next few decades aka like Afghanistan, which would be horrible. The only remaining option is a NATO West Ukraine and Russian East Ukraine.

I'm not saying this is a great or even good option, it's terrible. Rather I am trying to apply Occam's razor to this situation and I don't see any other scenario playing out.

 

[Tigerace117]

The 8 year war with Russia will continue until Ukraine is again whole.

Partisan warfare will endure for 5 years, 20 years, or fill-in the blank. They will not accept a forced partition. No nation would.

Nations have endured forced partitions all the time. History has literally thousands of examples. Poland got carved up three major times just within recent history.

Your willingness to have others die indefinitely is noted though.

 

[phoenix2020]

Partisan warfare will endure for 5 years, 20 years, or fill-in the blank. They will not accept a forced partition. No nation would.

Forced partitions happen all the time. They're ugly, painful and don't last, and no one likes or opts for them, but they happen. East and West Germany. India and Pakistan. The list goes on. This to my admittedly uninformed eye has the makings of a partitioning leading to a fixed NATO-Russia border and some plump construction contracts to build a bunch of walls.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Yes, but currently the West supports appeasement.

Do you have a citation where the West supports the partition of Ukraine?